A-1 - Monthly Public Assistance Statistical Report Family Investment Program, April 2016

A-1 - Monthly Public Assistance Statistical Report Family Investment Program

Statistical methods for river runoff prediction

Methods used to analyze one type of nonstationary stochastic processes?the periodically correlated process?are considered. Two methods of one-step-forward prediction of periodically correlated time series are examined. One-step-forward predictions made in accordance with an autoregression model and a model of an artificial neural network with one latent neuron layer and with an adaptation mechanism of network parameters in a moving time window were compared in terms of efficiency. The comparison showed that, in the case of prediction for one time step for time series of mean monthly water discharge, the simpler autoregression model is more efficient.

Bootstrapping a statistical speech translator from a rule-based one

We describe a series of experiments in which we start with English to French and English to Japanese versions of an Open Source rule-based speech translation system for a medical domain, and bootstrap correspondign statistical systems. Comparative evaluation reveals that the rule-based systems are still significantly better than the statistical ones, despite the fact that considerable effort has been invested in tuning both the recognition and translation components; also, a hybrid system only marginally improved recall at the cost of a los in precision. The result suggests that rule-based architectures may still be preferable to statistical ones for safety-critical speech translation tasks.

Statistical reference criteria for adaptive signal processing in digital communications

A general criterion for the design of adaptive systemsin digital communications called the statistical reference criterionis proposed. The criterion is based on imposition of the probabilitydensity function of the signal of interest at the outputof the adaptive system, with its application to the scenario ofhighly powerful interferers being the main focus of this paper.The knowledge of the pdf of the wanted signal is used as adiscriminator between signals so that interferers with differingdistributions are rejected by the algorithm. Its performance isstudied over a range of scenarios. Equations for gradient-basedcoefficient updates are derived, and the relationship with otherexisting algorithms like the minimum variance and the Wienercriterion are examined.

Statistical variation of weld profiles and their expected influence on fatigue strength

The general objective of this study was to conduct astatistical analysis on the variation of the weld profiles and their influence on the fatigue strength of the joint. Weld quality with respect to its fatigue strength is of importance which is the main concept behind this thesis. The intention of this study was to establish the influence of weld geometric parameters on the weld quality and fatigue strength. The effect of local geometrical variations of non-load carrying cruciform fillet welded joint under tensile loading wasstudied in this thesis work. Linear Elastic Fracture Mechanics was used to calculate fatigue strength of the cruciform fillet welded joints in as-welded condition and under cyclic tensile loading, for a range of weld geometries. With extreme value statistical analysis and LEFM, an attempt was made to relate the variation of the cruciform weld profiles such as weld angle and weld toe radius to respective FAT classes.

Frames: a maximum entropy statistical estimate of the inverse problem

A maximum entropy statistical treatment of an inverse problem concerning frame theory is presented. The problem arises from the fact that a frame is an overcomplete set of vectors that defines a mapping with no unique inverse. Although any vector in the concomitant space can be expressed as a linear combination of frame elements, the coefficients of the expansion are not unique. Frame theory guarantees the existence of a set of coefficients which is “optimal” in a minimum norm sense. We show here that these coefficients are also “optimal” from a maximum entropy viewpoint.

cis- and trans-acting elements involved in reactivation of vaccinia virus early transcription.

We have previously shown that transcription from the vaccinia virus 7.5K early promoter is reactivated late in infection (J. Garcés, K. Masternak, B. Kunz, and R. Wittek, J. Virol. 67:5394-5401, 1993). To identify the sequence elements mediating reactivation, we constructed recombinant viruses harboring deletions, substitutions, or insertions in the 7.5K promoter or its flanking regions. The analysis of these viruses showed that sequences both upstream as well as downstream of the transcription initiation site contribute to reactivation of the 7.5K promoter. We tested whether reactivation could be explained by a high affinity of vaccinia virus early transcription factor to reactivated promoters. Bandshift experiments using purified protein showed that promoters which bind the factor with high affinity in general also have high early transcriptional activity. However, no correlation was found between affinity of the factor and reactivation. Interestingly, overexpression of recombinant early transcription factor in vaccinia virus-infected cells resulted in a shutdown of late transcription and in reactivation of promoters, which are normally not reactivated.

Development of data sheets for statistical evaluation of fatigue data

To enable a mathematically and physically sound execution of the fatigue test and a correct interpretation of its results, statistical evaluation methods are used to assist in the analysis of fatigue testing data. The main objective of this work is to develop step-by-stepinstructions for statistical analysis of the laboratory fatigue data. The scopeof this project is to provide practical cases about answering the several questions raised in the treatment of test data with application of the methods and formulae in the document IIW-XIII-2138-06 (Best Practice Guide on the Statistical Analysis of Fatigue Data). Generally, the questions in the data sheets involve some aspects: estimation of necessary sample size, verification of the statistical equivalence of the collated sets of data, and determination of characteristic curves in different cases. The series of comprehensive examples which are given in this thesis serve as a demonstration of the various statistical methods to develop a sound procedure to create reliable calculation rules for the fatigue analysis.

cis- and trans-acting elements of the estrogen-regulated vitellogenin gene B1 of Xenopus laevis.

Vitellogenin genes are expressed under strict estrogen control in the liver of female oviparous vertebrates. Gene transfer experiments using estrogen-responsive cells have shown that the 13 bp perfect palindromic element GGTCACTGTGACC found upstream of the Xenopus laevis vitellogenin gene A2 promoter mediates hormonal stimulation and thus, was called the estrogen-responsive element (ERE). In the Xenopus vitellogenin genes B1 and B2 there are two closely adjacent EREs with one or more base substitutions when compared to the consensus ERE GGTCANNNTGACC. On their own, these degenerated elements have only a low or no regulatory capacity at all but act together synergistically to form an estrogen-responsive unit (ERU) with the same strength as the perfect palindromic 13 bp element. Analysis of estrogen receptor binding to the gene B1 ERU revealed a cooperative interaction of receptor dimers to the two adjacent imperfect EREs which most likely explains the synergistic stimulation observed in vivo. Furthermore, a promoter activator element located between positions --113 and --42 of the gene B1 and functional in the human MCF-7 and the Xenopus B3.2 cells has been identified and shown to be involved in the high level of induced transcription activity when the ERE is placed at a distance from the promoter. Finally, a hormone-controlled in vitro transcription system derived from Xenopus liver nuclear extracts was exploited to characterize two additional novel cis-acting elements within the vitellogenin gene B1 promoter. One of them, a negative regulatory element (NRE), is responsible for repression of promoter activity in the absence of hormone. The second is related to the NF-I binding site and is required, together with the ERE, to mediate hormonal induction. Moreover, we detected three trans-acting activities in Xenopus liver nuclear extracts that interact with these regions and demonstrated that they participate in the regulation of the expression of the vitellogenin promoter in vitro.

In conditions of limited chromophore supply rods entrap 11-cis-retinal leading to loss of cone function and cell death.

RPE65 is a retinoid isomerase required for the production of 11-cis-retinal, the chromophore of both cone and rod visual pigments. We recently established an R91W knock-in mouse strain as homologous animal model for patients afflicted by this mutation in RPE65. These mice have impaired vision and can only synthesize minute amounts of 11-cis-retinal. Here, we investigated the consequences of this chromophore insufficiency on cone function and pathophysiology. We found that the R91W mutation caused cone opsin mislocalization and progressive geographic cone atrophy. Remnant visual function was mostly mediated by rods. Ablation of rod opsin corrected the localization of cone opsin and improved cone retinal function. Thus, our analyses indicate that under conditions of limited chromophore supply rods and cones compete for 11-cis-retinal that derives from regeneration pathway(s) which are reliant on RPE65. Due to their higher number and the instability of cone opsin, rods are privileged under this condition while cones suffer chromophore deficiency and degenerate. These findings reinforce the notion that in patients any effective gene therapy with RPE65 needs to target the cone-rich macula directly to locally restore the cones' chromophore supply outside the reach of rods.

Statistical modelling of CSP solving algorithms performance

The goal of this work is to try to create a statistical model, based only on easily computable parameters from the CSP problem to predict runtime behaviour of the solving algorithms, and let us choose the best algorithm to solve the problem. Although it seems that the obvious choice should be MAC, experimental results obtained so far show, that with big numbers of variables, other algorithms perfom much better, specially for hard problems in the transition phase.

Application of Information Statistical Theory to the Description of the Effect of Heat Conduction on the Chemical Reaction Rate in Gases

The effect of the heat flux on the rate of chemical reaction in dilute gases is shown to be important for reactions characterized by high activation energies and in the presence of very large temperature gradients. This effect, obtained from the second-order terms in the distribution function (similar to those obtained in the Burnett approximation to the solution of the Boltzmann equation), is derived on the basis of information theory. It is shown that the analytical results describing the effect are simpler if the kinetic definition for the nonequilibrium temperature is introduced than if the thermodynamic definition is introduced. The numerical results are nearly the same for both definitions