Medieval foreign exchange: a time series analysis

This chapter applies rigorous statistical analysis to existing datasets of medieval exchange rates quoted in merchants’ letters sent from Barcelona, Bruges and Venice between 1380 and 1310, which survive in the archive of Francesco di Marco Datini of Prato. First, it tests the exchange rates for stationarity. Second, it uses regression analysis to examine the seasonality of exchange rates at the three financial centres and compares them against contemporary descriptions by the merchant Giovanni di Antonio da Uzzano. Third, it tests for structural breaks in the exchange rate series.

Sir Bernard Spilsbury: a survey and catalogue of his autopsy case cards from the Wellcome Library, London

During his lifetime, Sir Bernard Spilsbury was referred to as the ‘‘father of forensic medicine.’’ He became a household name as a result of several famous cases. Several articles have been written about his life and work, but an objective assessment has proved difficult because of the lack of available material that Spilsbury himself produced. His main legacy has been a series of case cards, but for many years these were unavailable to the researcher. In 2008, a collection of some 4000 of Spilsbury’s case cards was bought by The Wellcome Library in London and therefore entered the public domain. In this article, we report our study of 650 of these cards. We discuss trends in Spilsbury’s work and several specific cases in more detail. These cards allow an objective view to be taken of Spilsbury’s everyday work, and we feel that some reappraisal of his legacy is now timely

Using reanalysis data to quantify extreme wind power generation statistics : a 33 year case study in Great Britain

With a rapidly increasing fraction of electricity generation being sourced from wind, extreme wind power generation events such as prolonged periods of low (or high) generation and ramps in generation, are a growing concern for the efficient and secure operation of national power systems. As extreme events occur infrequently, long and reliable meteorological records are required to accurately estimate their characteristics. Recent publications have begun to investigate the use of global meteorological “reanalysis” data sets for power system applications, many of which focus on long-term average statistics such as monthly-mean generation. Here we demonstrate that reanalysis data can also be used to estimate the frequency of relatively short-lived extreme events (including ramping on sub-daily time scales). Verification against 328 surface observation stations across the United Kingdom suggests that near-surface wind variability over spatiotemporal scales greater than around 300 km and 6 h can be faithfully reproduced using reanalysis, with no need for costly dynamical downscaling. A case study is presented in which a state-of-the-art, 33 year reanalysis data set (MERRA, from NASA-GMAO), is used to construct an hourly time series of nationally-aggregated wind power generation in Great Britain (GB), assuming a fixed, modern distribution of wind farms. The resultant generation estimates are highly correlated with recorded data from National Grid in the recent period, both for instantaneous hourly values and for variability over time intervals greater than around 6 h. This 33 year time series is then used to quantify the frequency with which different extreme GB-wide wind power generation events occur, as well as their seasonal and inter-annual variability. Several novel insights into the nature of extreme wind power generation events are described, including (i) that the number of prolonged low or high generation events is well approximated by a Poission-like random process, and (ii) whilst in general there is large seasonal variability, the magnitude of the most extreme ramps is similar in both summer and winter. An up-to-date version of the GB case study data as well as the underlying model are freely available for download from our website: http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~energymet/data/Cannon2014/.

The case for transient magnetopause reconnection

Recent studies indicate that magnetopause reconnection can, at times, occur exclusively as a series of separated, short bursts. Reconnection generates “open” magnetic flux that threads the magnetospheric boundary, the magnetopause, and so connects the magnetosphere with interplanetary space. The rate at which open flux is generated by a line of unit length in the magnetopause is called the reconnection rate. By Faraday's induction law, the reconnection rate is a boundary-tangential electric field, Et, along that line (called an X-line).

On the predictive content of leading indicators: the case of U.S. real estate markets

This paper employs a probit and a Markov switching model using information from the Conference Board Leading Indicator and other predictor variables to forecast the signs of future rental growth in four key U.S. commercial rent series. We find that both approaches have considerable power to predict changes in the direction of commercial rents up to two years ahead, exhibiting strong improvements over a naïve model, especially for the warehouse and apartment sectors. We find that while the Markov switching model appears to be more successful, it lags behind actual turnarounds in market outcomes whereas the probit is able to detect whether rental growth will be positive or negative several quarters ahead.

Dual drive series actuator

Industrial robotic manipulators can be found in most factories today. Their tasks are accomplished through actively moving, placing and assembling parts. This movement is facilitated by actuators that apply a torque in response to a command signal. The presence of friction and possibly backlash have instigated the development of sophisticated compensation and control methods in order to achieve the desired performance may that be accurate motion tracking, fast movement or in fact contact with the environment. This thesis presents a dual drive actuator design that is capable of physically linearising friction and hence eliminating the need for complex compensation algorithms. A number of mathematical models are derived that allow for the simulation of the actuator dynamics. The actuator may be constructed using geared dc motors, in which case the benefits of torque magnification is retained whilst the increased non-linear friction effects are also linearised. An additional benefit of the actuator is the high quality, low latency output position signal provided by the differencing of the two drive positions. Due to this and the linearised nature of friction, the actuator is well suited for low velocity, stop-start applications, micro-manipulation and even in hard-contact tasks. There are, however, disadvantages to its design. When idle, the device uses power whilst many other, single drive actuators do not. Also the complexity of the models mean that parameterisation is difficult. Management of start-up conditions still pose a challenge.

Climate and construction delays: case study in Chile

Purpose – Construction projects usually suffer delays, and the causes of these delays and its cost overruns have been widely discussed, the weather being one of the most recurrent. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence of climate on standard construction work activities through a case study. Design/methodology/approach – By studying the extent at which some weather variables impede outdoor work from being effectively executed, new maps and tables for planning for delays are presented. In addition, a real case regarding the construction of several bridges in southern Chile is analyzed. Findings – Few studies have thoroughly addressed the influences of major climatic agents on the most common outdoor construction activities. The method detailed here provides a first approximation for construction planners to assess to what extent construction productivity will be influenced by the climate. Research limitations/implications – Although this study was performed in Chile, the simplified method proposed is entirely transferable to any other country, however, other weather or combinations of weather variables could be needed in other environments or countries. Practical implications – The implications will help reducing the negative social, economic and environmental outcomes that usually emerge from project delays. Originality/value – Climatic data were processed using extremely simple calculations to create a series of quantitative maps and tables that would be useful for any construction planner to decide the best moment of the year to start a project and, if possible, where to build it.

Cyclic Maximal Ideals of Rings of Differential Operators over Power Series Rings

In [3], Bratti and Takagi conjectured that a first order differential operator S=11 +...+ nn+ with 1,..., n, {x1,..., xn} does not generate a cyclic maximal left (or right) ideal of the ring of differential operators. This is contrary to the case of the Weyl algebra, i.e., the ring of differential operators over the polynomial ring [x1,..., xn]. In this case, we know that such cyclic maximal ideals do exist. In this article, we prove several special cases of the conjecture of Bratti and Takagi.

THE LOWER CENTRAL AND DERIVED SERIES OF THE BRAID GROUPS OF THE FINITELY-PUNCTURED SPHERE

Motivated in part by the study of Fadell-Neuwirth short exact sequences, we determine the lower central and derived series for the braid groups of the finitely-punctured sphere. For n >= 1, the class of m-string braid groups B(m)(S(2)\{x(1), ... , x(n)}) of the n-punctured sphere includes the usual Artin braid groups B(m) (for n = 1), those of the annulus, which are Artin groups of type B (for n = 2), and affine Artin groups of type (C) over tilde (for n = 3). We first consider the case n = 1. Motivated by the study of almost periodic solutions of algebraic equations with almost periodic coefficients, Gorin and Lin calculated the commutator subgroup of the Artin braid groups. We extend their results, and show that the lower central series (respectively, derived series) of B(m) is completely determined for all m is an element of N (respectively, for all m not equal 4). In the exceptional case m = 4, we obtain some higher elements of the derived series and its quotients. When n >= 2, we prove that the lower central series (respectively, derived series) of B(m)(S(2)\{x(1), ... , x(n)}) is constant from the commutator subgroup onwards for all m >= 3 (respectively, m >= 5). The case m = 1 is that of the free group of rank n - 1. The case n = 2 is of particular interest notably when m = 2 also. In this case, the commutator subgroup is a free group of infinite rank. We then go on to show that B(2)(S(2)\{x(1), x(2)}) admits various interpretations, as the Baumslag-Solitar group BS(2, 2), or as a one-relator group with non-trivial centre for example. We conclude from this latter fact that B(2)(S(2)\{x(1), x(2)}) is residually nilpotent, and that from the commutator subgroup onwards, its lower central series coincides with that of the free product Z(2) * Z. Further, its lower central series quotients Gamma(i)/Gamma(i+1) are direct sums of copies of Z(2), the number of summands being determined explicitly. In the case m >= 3 and n = 2, we obtain a presentation of the derived subgroup, from which we deduce its Abelianization. Finally, in the case n = 3, we obtain partial results for the derived series, and we prove that the lower central series quotients Gamma(i)/Gamma(i+1) are 2-elementary finitely-generated groups.

A compound class of Weibull and power series distributions

In this paper we introduce the Weibull power series (WPS) class of distributions which is obtained by compounding Weibull and power series distributions where the compounding procedure follows same way that was previously carried out by Adamidis and Loukas (1998) This new class of distributions has as a particular case the two-parameter exponential power series (EPS) class of distributions (Chahkandi and Gawk 2009) which contains several lifetime models such as exponential geometric (Adamidis and Loukas 1998) exponential Poisson (Kus 2007) and exponential logarithmic (Tahmasbi and Rezaei 2008) distributions The hazard function of our class can be increasing decreasing and upside down bathtub shaped among others while the hazard function of an EPS distribution is only decreasing We obtain several properties of the WPS distributions such as moments order statistics estimation by maximum likelihood and inference for a large sample Furthermore the EM algorithm is also used to determine the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters and we discuss maximum entropy characterizations under suitable constraints Special distributions are studied in some detail Applications to two real data sets are given to show the flexibility and potentiality of the new class of distributions (C) 2010 Elsevier B V All rights reserved

Price elasticity of demand for cigarettes : The Case of Sweden

Due to health problems and the negative externalities associated with cigarette consumption, many governments try to discourage cigarette consumption by increasing its price through taxation. However, cigarette, like the other addictive goods, is viewed as that it is not sensitive to demand rules and the market forces. This study analyses the effect of price increase on cigarette consumption. We used Swedish time series data from 1970 to 2010. Our results reveal that though cigarette is addictive substance its demand is sensitive to changes in the price. Estimates from this study indicate short-run price-elasticity of -0.29 and the long run price elasticity of -0.47.

The role of law and public-private collaboration in promoting innovative firms in Brazil: the case of the BNDES and the “criatec fund”

This paper presents the result of a qualitative empirical research about the “Criatec Fund”, a venture capital fund, privately managed and directed to innovative firms, that was created in 2007 by the Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES). The paper discusses the role of law in the implementation of the Criatec Fund in three different legal dimensions: structural, regulatory and contractual. Based on interviews, this paper tries to test some hypothesis previously formulated by some scholars that studied new financial policies created by the BNDES. This study explains the institutional arrangements of this seed capital policy and the role of flexible legal instruments in the execution of this peculiar type of publicprivate partnership. It also poses some questions to the “law and development agenda” based on some insights from the economic sociology of law.

Law and economics in the civil law world: the case of Brazilian Courts

Conventional wisdom holds that economic analysis of law is either embryonic or nonexistent outside of the United States generally and in civil law jurisdictions in particular. Existing explanations for the assumed lack of interest in the application of economic reasoning to legal problems range from the different structure of legal education and academia outside of the United States to the peculiar characteristics of civilian legal systems. This paper challenges this view by documenting and explaining the growing use of economic reasoning by Brazilian courts. We argue that, given the ever-greater role of courts in the formulation of public policies, the application of legal principles and rules increasingly calls for a theory of human behavior (such as that provided by economics) to help foresee the likely aggregate consequences of different interpretations of the law. Consistent with the traditional role of civilian legal scholarship in providing guidance for the application of law by courts, the further development of law and economics in Brazil is therefore likely to be mostly driven by judicial demand.

A critical value function approach, with an application to persistent time-series

Researchers often rely on the t-statistic to make inference on parameters in statistical models. It is common practice to obtain critical values by simulation techniques. This paper proposes a novel numerical method to obtain an approximately similar test. This test rejects the null hypothesis when the test statistic islarger than a critical value function (CVF) of the data. We illustrate this procedure when regressors are highly persistent, a case in which commonly-used simulation methods encounter dificulties controlling size uniformly. Our approach works satisfactorily, controls size, and yields a test which outperforms the two other known similar tests.