Descriptive epidemiology of cancer in three regions of Kazakhstan

The current study investigated data quality and estimated cancer incidence and mortality rates using data provided by Pavlodar, Semipalatinsk and Ust-Kamenogorsk Regional Cancer Registries of Kazakhstan during the period of 1996–1998. Assessment of data quality was performed using standard quality indicators including internal database checks, proportion of cases verified from death certificates only, mortality:incidence ratio, data patterns, proportion of cases with unknown primary site, proportion of cases with unknown age. Crude and age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates and 95% confidence intervals were calculated, by gender, for all cancers combined and for 28 specific cancer sites for each year of the study period. The five most frequent cancers were identified and described for every population. The results of the study provide the first simultaneous assessment of data quality and standardized incidence and mortality rates for Kazakh cancer registries. ^

Simultaneous Multiscale Polyaffine Registration by Incorporating Deformation Statistics

Locally affine (polyaffine) image registration methods capture intersubject non-linear deformations with a low number of parameters, while providing an intuitive interpretation for clinicians. Considering the mandible bone, anatomical shape differences can be found at different scales, e.g. left or right side, teeth, etc. Classically, sequential coarse to fine registration are used to handle multiscale deformations, instead we propose a simultaneous optimization of all scales. To avoid local minima we incorporate a prior on the polyaffine transformations. This kind of groupwise registration approach is natural in a polyaffine context, if we assume one configuration of regions that describes an entire group of images, with varying transformations for each region. In this paper, we reformulate polyaffine deformations in a generative statistical model, which enables us to incorporate deformation statistics as a prior in a Bayesian setting. We find optimal transformations by optimizing the maximum a posteriori probability. We assume that the polyaffine transformations follow a normal distribution with mean and concentration matrix. Parameters of the prior are estimated from an initial coarse to fine registration. Knowing the region structure, we develop a blockwise pseudoinverse to obtain the concentration matrix. To our knowledge, we are the first to introduce simultaneous multiscale optimization through groupwise polyaffine registration. We show results on 42 mandible CT images.

Extended-spectrum cephalosporin-resistant Gram-negative organisms in livestock: an emerging problem for human health?

Escherichia coli, Salmonella spp. and Acinetobacter spp. are important human pathogens. Serious infections due to these organisms are usually treated with extended-spectrum cephalosporins (ESCs). However, in the past two decades we have faced a rapid increasing of infections and colonization caused by ESC-resistant (ESC-R) isolates due to production of extended-spectrum-β-lactamases (ESBLs), plasmid-mediated AmpCs (pAmpCs) and/or carbapenemase enzymes. This situation limits drastically our therapeutic armamentarium and puts under peril the human health. Animals are considered as potential reservoirs of multidrug-resistant (MDR) Gram-negative organisms. The massive and indiscriminate use of antibiotics in veterinary medicine has contributed to the selection of ESC-R E. coli, ESC-R Salmonella spp. and, to less extent, MDR Acinetobacter spp. among animals, food, and environment. This complex scenario is responsible for the expansion of these MDR organisms which may have life-threatening clinical significance. Nowadays, the prevalence of food-producing animals carrying ESC-R E. coli and ESC-R Salmonella (especially those producing CTX-M-type ESBLs and the CMY-2 pAmpC) has reached worryingly high values. More recently, the appearance of carbapenem-resistant isolates (i.e., VIM-1-producing Enterobacteriaceae and NDM-1 or OXA-23-producing Acinetobacter spp.) in livestock has even drawn greater concerns. In this review, we describe the aspects related to the spread of the above MDR organisms among pigs, cattle, and poultry, focusing on epidemiology, molecular mechanisms of resistance, impact of antibiotic use, and strategies to contain the overall problem. The link and the impact of ESC-R organisms of livestock origin for the human scenario are also discussed.

High colonization rates of extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)-producing Escherichia coli in Swiss Travellers to South Asia- a prospective observational multicentre cohort study looking at epidemiology, microbiology and risk factors.

BACKGROUND International travel contributes to the worldwide spread of multidrug resistant Gram-negative bacteria. Rates of travel-related faecal colonization with extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)-producing Enterobacteriaceae vary for different destinations. Especially travellers returning from the Indian subcontinent show high colonization rates. So far, nothing is known about region-specific risk factors for becoming colonized. METHODS An observational prospective multicentre cohort study investigated travellers to South Asia. Before and after travelling, rectal swabs were screened for third-generation cephalosporin- and carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae. Participants completed questionnaires to identify risk factors for becoming colonized. Covariates were assessed univariately, followed by a multivariate regression. RESULTS Hundred and seventy persons were enrolled, the largest data set on travellers to the Indian subcontinent so far. The acquired colonization rate with ESBL-producing Escherichia coli overall was 69.4% (95% CI 62.1-75.9%), being highest in travellers returning from India (86.8%; 95% CI 78.5-95.0%) and lowest in travellers returning from Sri Lanka (34.7%; 95% CI 22.9-48.7%). Associated risk factors were travel destination, length of stay, visiting friends and relatives, and eating ice cream and pastry. CONCLUSIONS High colonization rates with ESBL-producing Enterobacteriaceae were found in travellers returning from South Asia. Though risk factors were identified, a more common source, i.e. environmental, appears to better explain the high colonization rates.

Modeling a health promotion campaign process

In this work we will present a model that describes how the number of healthy and unhealthy subjects that belong to a cohort, changes through time when there are occurrences of health promotion campaigns aiming to change the undesirable behavior. This model also includes immigration and emigration components for each group and a component taking into account when a subject that used to perform a healthy behavior changes to perform the unhealthy behavior. We will express the model in terms of a bivariate probability generating function and in addition we will simulate the model. ^ An illustrative example on how to apply the model to the promotion of condom use among adolescents will be created and we will use it to compare the results obtained from the simulations and the results obtained by the probability generating function. ^

Outcome-based adaptive randomization for binary data in clinical trials---Compare and contrast

Monte Carlo simulation has been conducted to investigate parameter estimation and hypothesis testing in some well known adaptive randomization procedures. The four urn models studied are Randomized Play-the-Winner (RPW), Randomized Pôlya Urn (RPU), Birth and Death Urn with Immigration (BDUI), and Drop-the-Loses Urn (DL). Two sequential estimation methods, the sequential maximum likelihood estimation (SMLE) and the doubly adaptive biased coin design (DABC), are simulated at three optimal allocation targets that minimize the expected number of failures under the assumption of constant variance of simple difference (RSIHR), relative risk (ORR), and odds ratio (OOR) respectively. Log likelihood ratio test and three Wald-type tests (simple difference, log of relative risk, log of odds ratio) are compared in different adaptive procedures. ^ Simulation results indicates that although RPW is slightly better in assigning more patients to the superior treatment, the DL method is considerably less variable and the test statistics have better normality. When compared with SMLE, DABC has slightly higher overall response rate with lower variance, but has larger bias and variance in parameter estimation. Additionally, the test statistics in SMLE have better normality and lower type I error rate, and the power of hypothesis testing is more comparable with the equal randomization. Usually, RSIHR has the highest power among the 3 optimal allocation ratios. However, the ORR allocation has better power and lower type I error rate when the log of relative risk is the test statistics. The number of expected failures in ORR is smaller than RSIHR. It is also shown that the simple difference of response rates has the worst normality among all 4 test statistics. The power of hypothesis test is always inflated when simple difference is used. On the other hand, the normality of the log likelihood ratio test statistics is robust against the change of adaptive randomization procedures. ^

Gastric cancer survival amongst Hispanics- A Hispanic paradox? A case series study using the SEER 1973--2005 data registry

Stomach cancer is the fourth most common cancer in the world, and ranked 16th in the US in 2008. The age-adjusted rates among Hispanics were 2.8 times that of non-Hispanic Whites in 1998-2002. In spite of that, previous research has found that Hispanics with non-cardia adenocarcinoma of the stomach have a slightly better survival than non-Hispanic Whites. However, such previous research did not include a comparison with African-Americans, and it was limited to data released for the years 1973-2000 in the nine original Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Cancer Registries. This finding was interpreted as related to the Hispanic Paradox, a phenomenon that refers to the fact that Hispanics in the USA tend to paradoxically have substantially better health than other ethnic groups in spite of what their aggregate socio-economic indicators would predict. We extended such research to the SEER 17 Registry, 1973-2005, with varying years of diagnosis per registry, and compared the survival of non-cardia adenocarcinoma of the stomach according to ethnicity (Hispanics, non-Hispanic Whites and African-Americans), while controlling for age, gender, marital status, stage of disease and treatment using Cox regression survival analysis. We found that Hispanic ethnicity by itself did not confer an advantage on survival from non-cardia adenocarcinoma of the stomach, but that being born abroad was independently associated with the apparent 'Hispanic Paradox' previously reported, and that such advantage was seen among foreign born persons across all race/ethnic groups.^

Introduction to disaster epidemiology for public health personnel

There has been a renewed interest in disaster epidemiology after the World Trade Center and Pentagon terrorist attacks of 2001, the devastation of Hurricane Katrina and the overwhelming loss of life that resulted from the tsunami that originated in the Indian Ocean and struck Indonesia and other adjacent countries on December 26, 2004. Institutions that have accepted the challenge of training the next generation of public health professionals as well as to continue the education of the dedicated professionals already serving in public health fields have a responsibility to train practitioners in the basic principles of disaster epidemiology as well as in practical applications of these principles. This culminating experience project involved developing an on-line course complete with the background information as well as relevant case studies that can be used as a curriculum for an introductory course in disaster epidemiology. ^

A cohort study of occupational asbestos-exposure related neoplasms in Texas Gulf Coast area

A cohort study was conducted in Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast area on individual workers who have been exposed to asbestos for 15 years or more. Most of these workers were employed in petrochemical industries. Of the 15,742 subjects initially selected for the cohort study, 3,258 had positive chest X-ray findings believed to be related to prolonged asbestos exposure. These subjects were further investigated. Their work out included detailed medical and occupational history, laboratory tests and spirometry. One thousand eight-hundred and three cases with positive chest X-ray findings whose data files were considered complete at the end of May 1986 were analyzed and their findings included in this report.^ The prevalence of lung cancer and cancer of the following sights: skin, stomach, oropharyngeal, pancreas and kidneys were significantly increased when compared to data from Connecticut Tumor Registry. The prevalence of other chronic conditions such as hypertension, emphysema, heart disease and peptic ulcer was also significantly high when compared to data for the U.S. and general population furnished by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). In most instances the occurrence of cancer and the chronic ailment previously mentioned appeared to follow 15-25 years of exposure to asbestos. ^

Genetic epidemiology of childhood brain tumors

A rare familial cancer syndrome involving childhood brain tumors (CBT), breast cancer, sarcomas and an array of other tumors has been described (Li and Fraumeni 1969, 1975, 1982, 1987). A survey of CBT identified through the Connnecticut Tumor Registry in 1984 revealed a high frequency of CBT, leukemia and other childhood cancer in siblings of CBT patients (Farwell and Flannery, 1984). Other syndromes such as neurofibromatosis and nevoid basal cell carcinoma syndrome have also been associated with CBT; however, no systematic family studies have been conducted to determine the extent to which cancer aggregates in family members of CBT patients. This family study was designed to determine the frequency of cancer aggregation overall or at specific sites, to determine the frequency of known or potentially hereditary syndromes in families of CBT patients, and to determine a genetic model to characterize familial cancer syndromes and to identify specific kindreds to which such a model(s) might apply. This study includes 244 confirmed CBT patients referred to the University of Texas M. D. Anderson Cancer Center between the years 1944 and 1983, diagnosed under the age of 15 years and resident in the U.S. or Canada. Family histories were obtained on the proband's first (parents, siblings and offspring) and second degree (proband's aunts, uncles and grandparents) relatives following sequential sampling scheme rules. To determine if cancer aggregates in families, we compared the cancer experience in the population to that expected in the general population using Connecticut Tumor Registry calendar year, age, race and sex-specific rates. The standardized incidence ratio (SIR) for cancer overall was 0.91 (41 observed (O) and 44.94 expected (E); 95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 0.65-1.24). We observed a significant excess of colon cancer among the proband's first degree relatives (O/E = 5/1.64; 95% CI = 1.01-7.65), in particular those under age 45 year. Segregation analysis showed evidence for multifactorial inheritance in the small percentage (N = 5) of the families. ^

The use of the computerized and revised vital record in conducting etiologic studies on neural tube defects

The purpose of this study was to evaluate the adequacy of computerized vital records in Texas for conducting etiologic studies on neural tube defects (NTDs), using the revised and expanded National Centers for Health Statistics vital record forms introduced in Texas in 1989.^ Cases of NTDs (anencephaly and spina bifida) among Harris County (Houston) residents were identified from the computerized birth and death records for 1989-1991. The validity of the system was then measured against cases ascertained independently through medical records and death certificates. The computerized system performed poorly in its identification of NTDs, particularly for anencephaly, where the false positive rate was 80% with little or no improvement over the 3-year period. For both NTDs the sensitivity and predictive value positive of the tapes were somewhat higher for Hispanic than non-Hispanic mothers.^ Case control studies were conducted utilizing the tape set and the independently verified data set, using controls selected from the live birth tapes. Findings varied widely between the data sets. For example, the anencephaly odds ratio for Hispanic mothers (vs. non-Hispanic) was 1.91 (CI = 1.38-2.65) for the tape file, but 3.18 (CI = 1.81-5.58) for verified records. The odds ratio for diabetes was elevated for the tape set (OR = 3.33, CI = 1.67-6.66) but not for verified cases (OR = 1.09, CI = 0.24-4.96), among whom few mothers were diabetic. It was concluded that computerized tapes should not be solely relied on for NTD studies.^ Using the verified cases, Hispanic mother was associated with spina bifida, and Hispanic mother, teen mother, and previous pregnancy terminations were associated with anencephaly. Mother's birthplace, education, parity, and diabetes were not significant for either NTD.^ Stratified analyses revealed several notable examples of statistical interaction. For anencephaly, strong interaction was observed between Hispanic origin and trimester of first prenatal care.^ The prevalence was 3.8 per 10,000 live births for anencephaly and 2.0 for spina bifida (5.8 per 10,000 births for the combined categories). ^

Genetic epidemiology of gallbladder disease in Mexican Americans and cholesterol 7$\alpha$-hydroxylase gene sequence variation

Among Mexican Americans, the second largest minority group in the United States, the prevalence of gallbladder disease is markedly elevated. Previous data from both genetic admixture and family studies indicate that there is a genetic component to the occurrence of gallbladder disease in Mexican Americans. However, prior to this thesis no formal genetic analysis of gallbladder disease had been carried out nor had any contributing genes been identified.^ The results of complex segregation analysis in a sample of 232 Mexican American pedigrees documented the existence of a major gene having two alleles with age- and gender-specific effects influencing the occurrence of gallbladder disease. The estimated frequency of the allele increasing susceptibility was 0.39. The lifetime probabilities that an individual will be affected by gallbladder disease were 1.0, 0.54, and 0.00 for females of genotypes "AA", "Aa", and "aa", respectively, and 0.68, 0.30, and 0.00 for males, respectively. This analysis provided the first conclusive evidence for the existence of a common single gene having a large effect on the occurrence of gallbladder disease.^ Human cholesterol 7$\alpha$-hydroxylase is the rate-limiting enzyme in bile acid synthesis. The results of an association study in both a random sample and a matched case/control sample showed that there is a significant association between cholesterol 7$\alpha$-hydroxylase gene variation and the occurrence of gallbladder disease in Mexican Americans males but not in females. These data have implicated a specific gene, 7$\alpha$-hydroxylase, in the etiology of gallbladder disease in this population.^ Finally, I asked whether the inferred major gene from complex segregation analysis is genetically linked to the cholesterol 7$\alpha$-hydroxylase gene. Three pedigrees predicted to be informative for linkage analysis by virtue of supporting the major gene hypothesis and having parents with informative genotypes and multiple offspring were selected for this linkage analysis. In each of these pedigrees, the recombination fractions maximized at 0 with a positive, albeit low, LOD score. The results of this linkage analysis provide preliminary and suggestive evidence that the cholesterol 7$\alpha$-hydroxylase gene and the inferred gallbladder disease susceptibility gene are genetically linked. ^

A Bayesian analysis for spatial processes with application to mapping

In geographical epidemiology, maps of disease rates and disease risk provide a spatial perspective for researching disease etiology. For rare diseases or when the population base is small, the rate and risk estimates may be unstable. Empirical Bayesian (EB) methods have been used to spatially smooth the estimates by permitting an area estimate to "borrow strength" from its neighbors. Such EB methods include the use of a Gamma model, of a James-Stein estimator, and of a conditional autoregressive (CAR) process. A fully Bayesian analysis of the CAR process is proposed. One advantage of this fully Bayesian analysis is that it can be implemented simply by using repeated sampling from the posterior densities. Use of a Markov chain Monte Carlo technique such as Gibbs sampler was not necessary. Direct resampling from the posterior densities provides exact small sample inferences instead of the approximate asymptotic analyses of maximum likelihood methods (Clayton & Kaldor, 1987). Further, the proposed CAR model provides for covariates to be included in the model. A simulation demonstrates the effect of sample size on the fully Bayesian analysis of the CAR process. The methods are applied to lip cancer data from Scotland, and the results are compared. ^

A STUDY ON THE EPIDEMIOLOGY OF POSITIVE PHYSICAL HEALTH (NHANES I)

HANES 1 detailed sample data were used to operationalize a definition of health in the absence of disease and to describe and compare the characteristics of the normal (healthy) group versus an abnormal (unhealthy) group.^ Parallel screening gave a 3.8 percent prevalence proportion of physical health, with a female:male ratio of 2:1 and younger ages in the healthy group. Statistically significant Mantel-Haenszel gender-age-adjusted odds ratios (MHOR) were estimated among abnormal non-migrants (1.53), skilled workers/unemployed (1.76), annual family incomes of less than $10,000 (1.56), having ever smoked (1.58), and started smoking before 18 years of age (1.58). Significant MHOR were also found for abnormals for health promoting measures: non-iodized salt use (1.94), needed dental care (1.91); and for fair to poor perceived health (4.28), perceiving health problems (2.52), and low energy level (1.68). Significant protective effects for much to moderate recreational exercise (MHOR 0.42) and very active to moderate non-recreational activity (MHOR 0.49) were also obtained. Covariance analysis additive models detected statistically significant higher mean values for abnormals than normals for serum magnesium, hemoglobin, hematocrit, urinary creatinine, and systolic and diastolic blood pressures, and lower values for abnormals than normals for serum iron. No difference was detected for serum cholesterol. Significant non-additive joint effects were found for body mass index.^ The results suggest positive physical health can be measured with cross-sectional survey data. Gender differentials, and associations between ecologic, socioeconomic, hazardous risk factors, health promoting activities and physical health are in general agreement with published findings on studies of morbidity. Longitudinal prospective studies are suggested to establish the direction of the associations and to enhance present knowledge of health and its promoting factors. ^

Bayesian and survival model for tumor relapse status and disease-specific survival, with applications to breast cancer

Breast cancer is the most common non-skin cancer and the second leading cause of cancer-related death in women in the United States. Studies on ipsilateral breast tumor relapse (IBTR) status and disease-specific survival will help guide clinic treatment and predict patient prognosis.^ After breast conservation therapy, patients with breast cancer may experience breast tumor relapse. This relapse is classified into two distinct types: true local recurrence (TR) and new ipsilateral primary tumor (NP). However, the methods used to classify the relapse types are imperfect and are prone to misclassification. In addition, some observed survival data (e.g., time to relapse and time from relapse to death)are strongly correlated with relapse types. The first part of this dissertation presents a Bayesian approach to (1) modeling the potentially misclassified relapse status and the correlated survival information, (2) estimating the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic methods, and (3) quantify the covariate effects on event probabilities. A shared frailty was used to account for the within-subject correlation between survival times. The inference was conducted using a Bayesian framework via Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation implemented in softwareWinBUGS. Simulation was used to validate the Bayesian method and assess its frequentist properties. The new model has two important innovations: (1) it utilizes the additional survival times correlated with the relapse status to improve the parameter estimation, and (2) it provides tools to address the correlation between the two diagnostic methods conditional to the true relapse types.^ Prediction of patients at highest risk for IBTR after local excision of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) remains a clinical concern. The goals of the second part of this dissertation were to evaluate a published nomogram from Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, to determine the risk of IBTR in patients with DCIS treated with local excision, and to determine whether there is a subset of patients at low risk of IBTR. Patients who had undergone local excision from 1990 through 2007 at MD Anderson Cancer Center with a final diagnosis of DCIS (n=794) were included in this part. Clinicopathologic factors and the performance of the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center nomogram for prediction of IBTR were assessed for 734 patients with complete data. Nomogram for prediction of 5- and 10-year IBTR probabilities were found to demonstrate imperfect calibration and discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of .63 and a concordance index of .63. In conclusion, predictive models for IBTR in DCIS patients treated with local excision are imperfect. Our current ability to accurately predict recurrence based on clinical parameters is limited.^ The American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging of breast cancer is widely used to determine prognosis, yet survival within each AJCC stage shows wide variation and remains unpredictable. For the third part of this dissertation, biologic markers were hypothesized to be responsible for some of this variation, and the addition of biologic markers to current AJCC staging were examined for possibly provide improved prognostication. The initial cohort included patients treated with surgery as first intervention at MDACC from 1997 to 2006. Cox proportional hazards models were used to create prognostic scoring systems. AJCC pathologic staging parameters and biologic tumor markers were investigated to devise the scoring systems. Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data was used as the external cohort to validate the scoring systems. Binary indicators for pathologic stage (PS), estrogen receptor status (E), and tumor grade (G) were summed to create PS+EG scoring systems devised to predict 5-year patient outcomes. These scoring systems facilitated separation of the study population into more refined subgroups than the current AJCC staging system. The ability of the PS+EG score to stratify outcomes was confirmed in both internal and external validation cohorts. The current study proposes and validates a new staging system by incorporating tumor grade and ER status into current AJCC staging. We recommend that biologic markers be incorporating into revised versions of the AJCC staging system for patients receiving surgery as the first intervention.^ Chapter 1 focuses on developing a Bayesian method to solve misclassified relapse status and application to breast cancer data. Chapter 2 focuses on evaluation of a breast cancer nomogram for predicting risk of IBTR in patients with DCIS after local excision gives the statement of the problem in the clinical research. Chapter 3 focuses on validation of a novel staging system for disease-specific survival in patients with breast cancer treated with surgery as the first intervention. ^