Short-term forecasting of power demand in the Nord Pool market

Sähkönkulutuksen lyhyen aikavälin ennustamista on tutkittu jo pitkään. Pohjoismaisien sähkömarkkinoiden vapautuminen on vaikuttanut sähkönkulutuksen ennustamiseen. Aluksi työssä perehdyttiin aiheeseen liittyvään kirjallisuuteen. Sähkönkulutuksen käyttäytymistä tutkittiin eri aikoina. Lämpötila tilastojen käyttökelpoisuutta arvioitiin sähkönkulutusennustetta ajatellen. Kulutus ennusteet tehtiin tunneittain ja ennustejaksona käytettiin yhtä viikkoa. Työssä tutkittiin sähkönkulutuksen- ja lämpötiladatan saatavuutta ja laatua Nord Poolin markkina-alueelta. Syötettävien tietojen ominaisuudet vaikuttavat tunnittaiseen sähkönkulutuksen ennustamiseen. Sähkönkulutuksen ennustamista varten mallinnettiin kaksi lähestymistapaa. Testattavina malleina käytettiin regressiomallia ja autoregressiivistä mallia (autoregressive model, ARX). Mallien parametrit estimoitiin pienimmän neliösumman menetelmällä. Tulokset osoittavat että kulutus- ja lämpötiladata on tarkastettava jälkikäteen koska reaaliaikaisen syötetietojen laatu on huonoa. Lämpötila vaikuttaa kulutukseen talvella, mutta se voidaan jättää huomiotta kesäkaudella. Regressiomalli on vakaampi kuin ARX malli. Regressiomallin virhetermi voidaan mallintaa aikasarjamallia hyväksikäyttäen.

Web Services In Symbian OS

This thesis presents different aspects of Web Services usage in Symbian OS that is an operating system for handheld devices. The practical part of the work was to develop Symbian OS client application for Web Services. It produced four reusable software components. XML enables platform and programming language independent services. Web Services use XML to create standardized message oriented services that are accessed through HTTP. Web Services are moving towards dynamic B2B interaction. Web Services increases the amount of transferred data, which is not desirable in mobile networks where transfer speed is slower than in the traditional networks. However the modern mobile networks are able to transfer the extra payload with reasonable time. XML processing is not a big problem. Web Services can be accessed from the modern mobile devices and they can cut down the development costs.

Agent-augmented process automation system in a panel board factory

Kiristyvä kansainvälinen kilpailu pakottaa automaatiojärjestelmien valmistajat ottamaan käyttöön uusia menetelmiä, joiden avulla järjestelmien suorituskykyä ja joustavuutta saadaan parannettua. Agenttiteknologiaa on esitetty käytettäväksi olemassa olevien automaatiojärjestelmien kanssa vastaamaan automaatiolle asetettaviin uusiin haasteisiin. Agentit ovat itsenäisiä yhteisöllisiä toimijoita, jotka suorittavat niille ennalta määrättyjä tehtäviä. Ne tarjoavat yhtenäisen kehyksen kehittyneiden toimintojen toteutukselle. Agenttiteknologian avulla automaatiojärjestelmä saadaan toimimaan joustavasti ja vikasietoisesti. Tässä työssä selostetaan agenttiteknologian ajatuksia ja käsitteitä. Lisäksi selvitetään sen soveltuvuutta monimutkaisten ohjausjärjestelmien kehittämiseen ja etsitään käyttökohteita sen soveltamiselle levytehtaassa. Työssä käsitellään myös aatteita, jotka ovat johtaneet agenttiteknologian käyttöön automaatiojärjestelmissä, sekä selostetaan agenttiavusteisen esimerkkisovelluksen rakenne ja testitulokset. Tutkimuksen tuloksena löydettiin useita kohteita agenttiteknologian käytölle levytehtaassa. Esimerkkisovellus osoittaa sen sopivan hyvin kehittyneiden toimintojen toteutukseen automaatiojärjestelmissä.

Webdatanet : Innovation and quality in web-based data collection

The article discusses the development of WEBDATANET established in 2011 which aims to create a multidisciplinary network of web-based data collection experts in Europe. Topics include the presence of 190 experts in 30 European countries and abroad, the establishment of web-based teaching and discussion platforms and working groups and task forces. Also discussed is the scope of the research carried by WEBDATANET. In light of the growing importance of web-based data in the social and behavioral sciences, WEBDATANET was established in 2011 as a COST Action (IS 1004) to create a multidisciplinary network of web-based data collection experts: (web) survey methodologists, psychologists, sociologists, linguists, economists, Internet scientists, media and public opinion researchers. The aim was to accumulate and synthesize knowledge regarding methodological issues of web-based data collection (surveys, experiments, tests, non-reactive data, and mobile Internet research), and foster its scientific usage in a broader community.

Research of wood fuel market in Ukraine and the Republic of Belarus

The goal of the present work was to describe the wood fuel market of Ukraine and the Republic of Belarus, to estimate wood fuel potential and to research opportunities of wood fuel trading. Nowadays the wood waste, wood residues and by-products are becoming more and more potential raw materials for energy production. Against the background of unstable prices of traditional energy sources and environmental degradation, European States are planning to get 12% of energy from alternative sources already in 2010. Wastes of wood-working and agricultural productions are such sources. At present time the most popular wood biofuels are wood pellets, briquettes, wood chips and logs. Ukraine and the Republic of Belarus have a rather big potential of wood fuel resources. But wood fuels markets of these countries are on the entry level and quite disorganized. There is almost no domestic usage of wood biofuel. All produced pellets, briquettes as well as wood chips and logs go to the export, but the volumes are not high at present time. Ukraine and the Republic of Belarus have a very suitable geographical location. The most promising directions of wood fuel trading are developed wood fuel markets of Northern countries, Austria, Germany as well as actively developing markets of Poland and Hungary. At the long distance truck and sea transportation are the most appropriate. At a short distance cheap transportation by rail is more suitable. Thereby export is a potential opportunity for development of wood fuel production and in the future for usage in the researched countries.

Role of references in international industrial marketing : a theory-building case study about supplier’s processes of utilizing references

Scientific studies regarding specifically references do not seem to exist. However, the utilization of references is an important practice for many companies involved in industrial marketing. The purpose of the study is to increase the understanding about the utilization of references in international industrial marketing in order to contribute to the development of a theory of reference behavior. Specifically, the modes of reference usage in industry, the factors affecting a supplier's reference behavior, and the question how references are actually utilized, are explored in the study. Due to the explorative nature of the study, a research design was followed where theory and empirical studies alternated. An Exploratory Framework was developed to guide a pilot case study that resulted in Framework 1. Results of the pilot study guided an expanded literature review that was used to develop first a Structural Framework and a Process Framework which were combined in Framework 2. Then, the second empirical phase of the case study was conducted in the same (pilot) case company. In this phase, Decision Systems Analysis (DSA) was used as the analysis method. The DSA procedure consists of three interviewing waves: initial interviews, reinterviews, and validating interviews. Four reference decision processes were identified, described and analyzed in the form of flowchart descriptions. The flowchart descriptions were used to explore new constructs and to develop new propositions to develop Framework 2 further. The quality of the study was ascertained by many actions in both empirical parts of the study. The construct validity of the study was ascertained by using multiple sources of evidence and by asking the key informant to review the pilot case report. The DSA method itself includes procedures assuring validity. Because of the choice to conduct a single case study, external validity was not even pursued. High reliability was pursued through detailed documentation and thorough reporting of evidence. It was concluded that the core of the concept of reference is a customer relationship regardless of the concrete forms a reference might take in its utilization. Depending on various contingencies, references might have various tasks inside the four roles of increasing 1) efficiency of sales and sales management, 2) efficiency of the business, 3) effectiveness of marketing activities, and 4) effectiveness in establishing, maintaining and enhancing customer relationships. Thus, references have not only external but internal tasks as well. A supplier's reference behavior might be affected by many hierarchical conditions. Additionally, the empirical study showed that the supplier can utilize its references as a continuous, all pervasive decision making process through various practices. The process includes both individual and unstructured decision making subprocesses. The proposed concept of reference can be used to guide a reference policy recommendable for companies for which the utilization of references is important. The significance of the study is threefold: proposing the concept of reference, developing a framework of a supplier's reference behavior and its short term process of utilizing references, and conceptual structuring of an unstructured and in industrial marketing important phenomenon to four roles.

Determining risk potential through accidents and near-accidents: an empirical study in a steel factory

Fatal and permanently disabling accidents form only one per I cent of all occupational accidents but in many branches of industry they account for more than half the accident costs. Furthermore the human suffering of the victim and his family is greater in severe accidents than in slight ones. For both human and economic reasons the severe accident risks should be identified befor injuries occur. It is for this purpose that different safety analysis methods have been developed . This study shows two new possible approaches to the problem.. The first is the hypothesis that it is possible to estimate the potential severity of accidents independent of the actual severity. The second is the hypothesis that when workers are also asked to report near accidents, they are particularly prone to report potentially severe near accidents on the basis of their own subjective risk assessment. A field study was carried out in a steel factory. The results supported both the hypotheses. The reliability and the validity of post incident estimates of an accident's potential severity were reasonable. About 10 % of accidents were estimated to be potentially critical; they could have led to death or very severe permanent disability. Reported near accidents were significantly more severe, about 60 $ of them were estimated to be critical. Furthermore the validity of workers subjective risk assessment, manifested in the near accident reports, proved to be reasonable. The studied new methods require further development and testing. They could be used both in routine usage in work places and in research for identifying and setting the priorities of accident risks.

Project Management Tools in Agile Embedded Systems Development

Agile methods have become increasingly popular in the field of software engineering. While agile methods are now generally considered applicable to software projects of many different kinds, they have not been widely adopted in embedded systems development. This is partly due to the natural constraints that are present in embedded systems development (e.g. hardware–software interdependencies) that challenge the utilization of agile values, principles and practices. The research in agile embedded systems development has been very limited, and this thesis tackles an even less researched theme related to it: the suitability of different project management tools in agile embedded systems development. The thesis covers the basic aspects of many different agile tool types from physical tools, such as task boards and cards, to web-based agile tools that offer all-round solutions for application lifecycle management. In addition to these two extremities, there is also a wide range of lighter agile tools that focus on the core agile practices, such as backlog management. Also other non-agile tools, such as bug trackers, can be used to support agile development, for instance, with plug-ins. To investigate the special tool requirements in agile embedded development, the author observed tool related issues and solutions in a case study involving three different companies operating in the field of embedded systems development. All three companies had a distinct situation in the beginning of the case and thus the tool solutions varied from a backlog spreadsheet built from scratch to plug-in development for an already existing agile software tool. Detailed reports are presented of all three tool cases. Based on the knowledge gathered from agile tools and the case study experiences, it is concluded that there are tool related issues in the pilot phase, such as backlog management and user motivation. These can be overcome in various ways epending on the type of a team in question. Finally, five principles are formed to give guidelines for tool selection and usage in agile embedded systems development.

Behavioral profiles displayed by rats in an elevated asymmetric plus-maze: effects of diazepam

When rats are exposed to unknown environments where novelty and fear-inducing characteristics are present (conflictive environments), some specific behaviors are induced and exploration is apparently modulated by fear. In our laboratory, a new type of plus-maze was designed as a model of conflictive exploration. The maze is composed of four arms with different geometrical characteristics, differing from each other by the presence or absence of walls. The degree of asymmetry was as follows: NW, no wall arm; SW, a single high wall present; HL, a low and a high wall present, and HH, two high walls present. The four arms were arranged at 90o angles and the apparatus was called the elevated asymmetric plus-maze (APM). The purpose of the present study was to assess the behavioral profile of rats exposed for a single time to the APM with or without treatment with benzodiazepine. Increasing doses of diazepam were injected intraperitoneally in several groups of male, 90-day-old Holtzman rats. Distilled water was injected in control animals. Thirty minutes after treatment all rats were exposed singly to a 5-min test in the APM. Diazepam induced a biphasic modification of exploration in the NW and SW arms. The increase in the exploration score was evident at low doses of diazepam (0.25-1.0 mg/kg body weight) and the decrease in exploration was found with the higher doses of diazepam (2.0-3.0 mg/kg body weight). Non-exploratory behaviors (permanency) were not affected by benzodiazepine treatment. In the HL arm, exploration was not modified but permanency was increased in a dose-dependent manner. In the HH arm, exploration and permanency were not affected. Results are compatible with the idea that exploration-processing mechanisms in conflictive environments are modulated by fear-processing mechanisms of the brain.

Green welding in practice

Efficient production and consumption of energy has become the top priority of national and international policies around the world. Manufacturing industries have to address the requirements of the government in relation to energy saving and ecologically sustainable products. These industries are also concerned with energy and material usage due to their rising costs. Therefore industries have to find solutions that can support environmental preservation yet maintain competitiveness in the market. Welding, a major manufacturing process, consumes a great deal of material and energy. It is a crucial process in improving a product’s life-cycle cost, strength, quality and reliability. Factors which lead to weld related inefficiencies have to be effectively managed, if industries are to meet their quality requirements and fulfil a high-volume production demand. Therefore it is important to consider some practical strategies in welding process for optimization of energy and material consumption. The main objective of this thesis is to explore the methods of minimizing the ecological footprint of the welding process and methods to effectively manage its material and energy usage in the welding process. The author has performed a critical review of the factors including improved weld power source efficiency, efficient weld techniques, newly developed weld materials, intelligent welding systems, weld safety measures and personnel training. The study lends strong support to the fact that the use of eco-friendly welding units and the quality weld joints obtained with minimum possible consumption of energy and materials should be the main directions of improvement in welding systems. The study concludes that, gradually implementing the practical strategies mentioned in this thesis would help the manufacturing industries to achieve on the following - reduced power consumption, enhanced power control and manipulation, increased deposition rate, reduced cycle time, reduced joint preparation time, reduced heat affected zones, reduced repair rates, improved joint properties, reduced post-weld operations, improved automation, improved sensing and control, avoiding hazardous conditions and reduced exposure of welder to potential hazards. These improvement can help in promotion of welding as a green manufacturing process.

The Utilization of Chinese Social Media in Internationalization into China: Perspective of a Western Company

The purpose of this qualitative research is to analyze western-based companies’ social media usage in internationalization into China and to identify social media presence’ impact on the internationalization process. Additionally, the benefits and challenges a western company may face while using social media in China will be illustrated. Competitive advantages, knowledge, networks and relations, and costs and risks could be identified as the key antecedents for successful internationalization. A great social media presence could create a competitive advantage for a western company while competitive advantages may be communicated in social media marketing, knowledge and networks can be enhanced and utilized in internationalization via social media two-way communication. The biggest benefit for internationalization resulted from decreased marketing costs due to cost-effectiveness of social media. The results revealed that cost effective brand awareness was the main benefit from the social media usage in internationalization into China. However, companies struggled with the limited resources and despite of understanding the importance of Chinese social media, lacked sufficient resources for the social media operations. Companies should determine clear strategy and goals that they are willing to achieve via social media in internationalization process, and allocate required resources according to the social media strategy. Localization of the social media operations is important in China, and business-to-consumer companies tend to benefit more from the social media presence. Business-to-business companies may increase the brand’s credibility by successful Chinese social media operations.

The Role Of Social Networks In New Venture Internationalization: Case Of Russian And Finnish Firms

The purpose of current master thesis research is to investigate the role of social networks in internationalization of Russian and Finnish firms. Literature review of existing empirical researches on the topic is conducted in order to identify the gap, which is fulfilled by empirical research of 4 Russian and 1 Finnish firm that have established international operations no later than 8 years since their foundation. In-depth semi-structured interviews have shown that business network has been an influencing factor in firms’ internationalization and that even if social network is not the driver of internationalization, it becomes important when a company has established international presence and is working on its enlargement. The study has both theoretical and practical contribution by contributing to research of Russian and Finnish firms’ internationalization and by showing examples of successful foreign market entry of companies from different industries. General practical implication of current thesis is that it shows the efficient ways of entrepreneurs’ social network usage in business development in international scope.

Preadolescents' internet usage : psychosocial implications /

Preadolescent Internet usage is prevalent today. This thesis examined how Canadian preadolescents use the Internet, what they do when they are on the Internet, and why preadolescents are fascinated with the Internet. Eight quahtative categories were derived from the data. The categories are Downloading, Information Hunting, Consumerism, Virtual Nurturing, Gaming, Expressions of Violence, Chatting, and Music. By critically distilling and analyzing preadolescent Internet behaviour through the lens of behavioural and cognitive psychology, and explicating the amount of psychological, cognitive, and social learning that preadolescents may be exposed to on the Internet, and the attraction that is cumulatively a profound draw for a preadolescent audience, an argument will be made that Internet usage in preadolescents may impair their cognitive, social, and psychological development because of the impulse seeking and gratification priming that has been reinforced during the formative period of preadolescence.

The Effective Use of 21st-Century Learning iPad Applications in the Primary/Junior Literacy Classroom

The purpose of this major research project was to develop a practical tool in the form of a handbook that could facilitate educators’ effective use of technology in primary and junior classrooms. The main goal was to explore the use of iPad devices and applications in the literacy classroom. The study audited available free applications against set criteria and selected only those that promoted 21st-century learning. The researcher used such applications to develop literacy lessons that aligned with curriculum expectations and promoted 21st-century skills and traditional skills alike. The study also created assessment models to evaluate the use of iPads in student work and explored the benefits and limitations of technology usage in student learning.

Mathematical modelling in mathematics education and instruction

This paper aims at giving a concise survey of the present state-of-the-art of mathematical modelling in mathematics education and instruction. It will consist of four parts. In part 1, some basic concepts relevant to the topic will be clarified and, in particular, mathematical modelling will be defined in a broad, comprehensive sense. Part 2 will review arguments for the inclusion of modelling in mathematics teaching at schools and universities, and identify certain schools of thought within mathematics education. Part 3 will describe the role of modelling in present mathematics curricula and in everyday teaching practice. Some obstacles for mathematical modelling in the classroom will be analysed, as well as the opportunities and risks of computer usage. In part 4, selected materials and resources for teaching mathematical modelling, developed in the last few years in America, Australia and Europe, will be presented. The examples will demonstrate many promising directions of development.