Improved likelihood inference in beta regression

We consider the issue of performing accurate small-sample likelihood-based inference in beta regression models, which are useful for modelling continuous proportions that are affected by independent variables. We derive small-sample adjustments to the likelihood ratio statistic in this class of models. The adjusted statistics can be easily implemented from standard statistical software. We present Monte Carlo simulations showing that inference based on the adjusted statistics we propose is much more reliable than that based on the usual likelihood ratio statistic. A real data example is presented.

Framtagning av ICC-profil för VTAB Backa

The following degree project deals with the production of an ICC-profile, this in the form ofproducing ICC-profiles for VTAB Backa. The company previously had their own profile butthey weren’t satisfied, so earlier this year they started using the TU standard profile, but theyalso wanted a complement to this in form of a profile created for solely their printing press.The separation settings used when creating the new profiles were based on information fromTU and their profile. Two basic profiles were created and then edited to obtain a better result.The test printings made with the edited profiles showed that the less adjustments that are made,the better. It was also discovered that the TU standard profile eliminates the highlight toneswhiles the new profiles are somewhat darker. VTAB Backa has at the end of this degree projectdesided to conduct more test printings before making their decision.

A GUI for online presentation of steel and steelmaking ladle temperature data and simulation.

Continuous casting is a casting process that produces steel slabs in a continuous manner with steel being poured at the top of the caster and a steel strand emerging from the mould below. Molten steel is transferred from the AOD converter to the caster using a ladle. The ladle is designed to be strong and insulated. Complete insulation is never achieved. Some of the heat is lost to the refractories by convection and conduction. Heat losses by radiation also occur. It is important to know the temperature of the melt during the process. For this reason, an online model was previously developed to simulate the steel and ladle wall temperatures during the ladle cycle. The model was developed as an ODE based model using grey box modeling technique. The model’s performance was acceptable and needed to be presented in a user friendly way. The aim of this thesis work was basically to design a GUI that presents steel and ladle wall temperatures calculated by the model and also allow the user to make adjustments to the model. This thesis work also discusses the sensitivity analysis of different parameters involved and their effects on different temperature estimations.

Arbetslöshet som en icke önskvärd konsekvens av socialbidrag : Resultat från en tidsserieanalys på befolkningsnivå i Sverige 1946–1990

Unemployment as an unintended consequence of social assistance recipiency: results from a time-series analysis of aggregated population data Does the frequency of unemployment have a tendency to increase the number of social assistance recipients, or does the relationship work the other way around? This article utilizes Swedish annual data on aggregated unemployment and means-tested social assistance recipiency in the period 1946–1990 and proposes a multiple time-series approach based on vector error-correction modelling to establish the direction of influence. First, we show that rates of unemployment and receipt of social assistance is co-integrated. Second, we demonstrate that adjustments to the long-run equilibrium are made through adjustments of the unemployment. This indicates that the level of unemployment reacts to changes in rates of social assistance recipiency rather than vice versa. It is also shown that lagged changes in the level of unemployment do not predict changes in rates of social assistance recipients in short-term. Together these findings demonstrate that the number of social assistance recipients does increase the number of unemployed in a period characterized by low unemployment and high employment.

IAS 40 ur ett Nordenperspektiv : Jämförelse av regelverkets efterlevnad 2014 jämfört med 2009

Börsnoterade bolag ska i sin koncernredovisning redovisa enligt IFRS och förvaltningsfastigheter skall redovisas enligt IAS 40 Förvaltningsfastigheter. Detta examensarbete undersöker hur Nordiska börsnoterade bolag tillämpar vissa punkter inom IAS 40 i 2014 års redovisning jämfört med 2009 års redovisning. Syftet med undersökningen är att undersöka skillnader mellan de granskade företagens redovisning 2014 och 2009, med utgångspunkten i en tidigare publicerad undersökning (Hedlund & Ersson, 2011). Det som undersöks är om företagen använder samma värderingsmetod, om de informerar om hur värdering av förvaltningsfastigheter skett, om var i resultatrapporten de rapporterar justeringar av verkligt värde samt hur väl de lämnar upplysningar enligt IAS 40 punkt 75. Undersökningen har skett med en kvantitativ metod då det är årsredovisningar som granskats. Undersökt data är årsredovisningar från 2014 och 2009 för samma företag som granskats i den tidigare undersökningen. Några företag har utgått då de inte ingår i urvalsramen Nordiskt börsnoterat fastighetsbolag. Totalt granskades 14 stycken företag. Resultatet visar att efterlevnaden totalt sett är något bättre 2014 jämfört med den tidigare undersökningen. Till stor del beror det på urvalet där de företag som utgått var dåliga på att lämna upplysningar enligt IAS 40 i 2009 års redovisning. Sett till de företag som är med i båda undersökningarna är efterlevnaden likartad de jämförda åren. Det är få företag som lämnar upplysningar om begränsningar i rätten att sälja förvaltningsfastigheter, avtalsenliga förpliktelser att köpa eller hur de skiljer på rörelsefastigheter och förvaltningsfastigheter. Tolkningen kan då göras att det inte finns någon restriktion eller förpliktelse om det inte lämnas några sådana upplysningar. Om det är ett fastighetsbolag så kan det tolkas som att de inte har några rörelsefastigheter. Med dessa tolkningar blir efterlevnaden bland de undersökta företagen god.

Shared decision-making in mental health care : a user perspective on decisional needs in community-based services

BACKGROUND: Shared decision-making (SDM) is an emergent research topic in the field of mental health care and is considered to be a central component of a recovery-oriented system. Despite the evidence suggesting the benefits of this change in the power relationship between users and practitioners, the method has not been widely implemented in clinical practice. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to investigate decisional and information needs among users with mental illness as a prerequisite for the development of a decision support tool aimed at supporting SDM in community-based mental health services in Sweden. METHODS: Three semi-structured focus group interviews were conducted with 22 adult users with mental illness. The transcribed interviews were analyzed using a directed content analysis. This method was used to develop an in-depth understanding of the decisional process as well as to validate and conceptually extend Elwyn et al.'s model of SDM. RESULTS: The model Elwyn et al. have created for SDM in somatic care fits well for mental health services, both in terms of process and content. However, the results also suggest an extension of the model because decisions related to mental illness are often complex and involve a number of life domains. Issues related to social context and individual recovery point to the need for a preparation phase focused on establishing cooperation and mutual understanding as well as a clear follow-up phase that allows for feedback and adjustments to the decision-making process. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: The current study contributes to a deeper understanding of decisional and information needs among users of community-based mental health services that may reduce barriers to participation in decision-making. The results also shed light on attitudinal, relationship-based, and cognitive factors that are important to consider in adapting SDM in the mental health system.

‘Moving on’ : Violence, wellbeing and questions about violence in antenatal care encounters. A qualitative study with Somali-born refugees in Sweden

Background Somali-born women constitute one of the largest groups of childbearing refugee women in Sweden after more than two decades of political violence in Somalia. In Sweden, these women encounter antenatal care that includes routine questions about violence being asked. The aim of the study was to explore how Somali-born women understand and relate to violence and wellbeing during their migration transition and their views on being approached with questions about violence in Swedish antenatal care. Method Qualitative interviews (22) with Somali-born women (17) living in Sweden were conducted and analysed using thematic analysis. Findings A balancing actbetween keeping private life private and the new welfare system was identified, where the midwife's questions about violence were met with hesitance. The midwife was, however, considered a resource for access to support services in the new society. A focus on pragmatic strategies to move on in life, rather than dwelling on potential experiences of violence and related traumas, was prominent. Social networks, spiritual faith and motherhood were crucial for regaining coherence in the aftermath of war. Dialogue and mutual adjustments were identified as strategies used to overcome power tensions in intimate relationships undergoing transition. Conclusions If confidentiality and links between violence and health are explained and clarified during the care encounter, screening for violence can be more beneficial in relation to Somali-born women. The focus on “moving on” and rationality indicates strength and access to alternative resources, but needs to be balanced against risks for hidden needs in care encounters. A care environment with continuity of care and trustful relationships enhances possibilities for the midwife to balance these dual perspectives and identify potential needs. Collaborations between Somali communities, maternity care and social service providers can contribute with support to families in transition and bridge gaps to formal social and care services.

"An on-going individual adjustment" : a qualitative study of midwives' experiences counselling pregnant women on physical activity in Sweden

Background: In Sweden, midwives play prominent supportive role in antenatal care by counselling and promoting healthy lifestyles. This study aimed to explore how Swedish midwives experience the counselling of pregnant women on physical activity, specifically focusing on facilitators and barriers during pregnancy. Also, addressing whether the midwives perceive that their own lifestyle and body shape may influence the content of the counselling they provide. Methods: Eight focus group discussions (FGD) were conducted with 41 midwives working in antenatal care clinics in different parts of Sweden between September 2013 and January 2014. Purposive sampling was applied to ensure a variation in age, work experience, and geographical location. The FGD were digitally recorded, transcribed verbatim, and analyzed using manifest and latent content analysis. Results: The main theme- "An on-going individual adjustment" was built on three categories: "Counselling as a challenge"; "Counselling as walking the thin ice" and "Counselling as an opportunity" reflecting the midwives on-going need to adjust their counselling depending on each woman's specific situation. Furthermore, counselling pregnant women on physical activity was experienced as complex and ambiguous, presenting challenges as well as opportunities. When midwives challenged barriers to physical activity, they risked being rejected by the pregnant women. Despite risking rejection, the midwives tried to promote increased physical activity based on their assessment of individual needs of the pregnant woman. Some participants felt that their own lifestyle and body shape might negatively influence the counselling; however, the majority of participants did not agree with this perspective. Conclusions: Counselling on physical activity during pregnancy may be a challenging task for midwives, characterized by on-going adjustments based on a pregnant woman's individual needs. Midwives strive to find individual solutions to encourage physical activity. However, to improve their counselling, midwives may benefit from further training, also organizational and financial barriers need to be addressed. Such efforts might result in improved opportunities to further support pregnant women's motivation for performance of physical activity.

Association of soluble tumor necrosis factor receptors 1 and 2 with nephropathy, cardiovascular events, and total mortality in type 2 diabetes

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Soluble tumor necrosis factor receptors 1 and 2 (sTNFR1 and sTNFR2) contribute to experimental diabetic kidney disease, a condition with substantially increased cardiovascular risk when present in patients. Therefore, we aimed to explore the levels of sTNFRs, and their association with prevalent kidney disease, incident cardiovascular disease, and risk of mortality independently of baseline kidney function and microalbuminuria in a cohort of patients with type 2 diabetes. In pre-defined secondary analyses we also investigated whether the sTNFRs predict adverse outcome in the absence of diabetic kidney disease. METHODS: The CARDIPP study, a cohort study of 607 diabetes patients [mean age 61 years, 44 % women, 45 cardiovascular events (fatal/non-fatal myocardial infarction or stroke) and 44 deaths during follow-up (mean 7.6 years)] was used. RESULTS: Higher sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 were associated with higher odds of prevalent kidney disease [odd ratio (OR) per standard deviation (SD) increase 1.60, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.32-1.93, p < 0.001 and OR 1.54, 95 % CI 1.21-1.97, p = 0.001, respectively]. In Cox regression models adjusting for age, sex, glomerular filtration rate and urinary albumin/creatinine ratio, higher sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 predicted incident cardiovascular events [hazard ratio (HR) per SD increase, 1.66, 95 % CI 1.29-2.174, p < 0.001 and HR 1.47, 95 % CI 1.13-1.91, p = 0.004, respectively]. Results were similar in separate models with adjustments for inflammatory markers, HbA1c, or established cardiovascular risk factors, or when participants with diabetic kidney disease at baseline were excluded (p < 0.01 for all). Both sTNFRs were associated with mortality. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATIONS: Higher circulating sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 are associated with diabetic kidney disease, and predicts incident cardiovascular disease and mortality independently of microalbuminuria and kidney function, even in those without kidney disease. Our findings support the clinical utility of sTNFRs as prognostic markers in type 2 diabetes.

A recompra de ações na BOVESPA

Esse trabalho examina os anúncios de reaquisição de ações na BOVESPA no período de 30/05/97 a 31/10/98 e procura verificar se existe efeito positivo ou negativo sobre o preço das ações na presença de tal evento. São apresentadas as diversas hipóteses que tem sido utilizadas para justificar a estratégia adotada pelas empresas e o efeito esperado sobre o preço das ações para cada uma dessas hipóteses. Utilizando uma amostra de 110 eventos são realizadas diversas segmentações com vários tipos de ajuste para negociações infreqüentes em cada uma delas. Em seguida é conduzido um estudo de eventos com as diversas segmentações. Para aferir o efeito do evento sobre o preço da ação é realizados o teste t de student. O perfil do AR(Retomo anormal) e do CAR(Retomo anormal cumulativo) também são avaliados em busca de inferências adicionais a respeito do efeito do anúncio de recompra. No geral os resultados obtidos corroboram a hipótese da sinalização. O perfil do CAR indica claramente um efeito positivo do anúncio, entretanto tal efeito não surge de imediato, mas progressivamente ao longo dos, aproximadamente, 25 dias subseqüentes ao evento. O padrão observado parece indicar que o mercado reage lentamente a informação o que depõem contra a presença de eficiência forte ou semi-forte no mercado brasileiro. Além disso os resultados obtidos com as diversas segmentações não são sensivelmente afetados pelos diversos ajustes para negociações infreqüentes utilizados o que reforça os resultados obtidos. Também é constatado que os bancos apresentam comportamento diferenciado em relação ao restante da amostra, entretanto esse resultado deve ser avaliado com reservas devido ao tamanho da amostra utilizada.

A Light, investimento estrangeiro no Brasil: uma luz sobre o ciclo privado-público-privado em 80 anos pela análise de taxa de retorno

A Brazilian Traction, Light and Power Company ("Light"), formada por empreendedores canadenses em 1899, operou por 80 anos praticamente toda a infraestrutura (bondes, luz, telefones, gás) do eixo Rio-São Paulo. A empresa passou por vários ciclos políticos, desde sua fundação até sua estatização em 1979. Durante este período de 80 anos, a infra-estrutura nacional, inicialmente privada, foi gradativamente passando para as mãos do Estado. O setor voltaria a ser privado a partir dos anos 90, configurando o ciclo privado-público-privado, similar ao ocorrido nos países mais desenvolvidos. A Light, símbolo maior do capital estrangeiro até os anos 50, foi inicialmente bem recebida no país, posto que seu desenvolvimento era simbiótico, causa e conseqüência, ao desenvolvimento industrial. Dos anos 20 em diante, crescem os debates econômicos ou ideológicos quanto ao papel do capital privado estrangeiro no desenvolvimento nacional, vis-a-vis a opção do setor público como ator principal. Sempre permaneceu sob névoa quais teriam sido os lucros da Light no Brasil, e se esses seriam excessivos, acima do razoável. Outra questão recorrente se refere até que ponto os congelamentos de tarifas teriam contribuido para a crise de oferta de infra-estrutura. Através de um trabalho de pesquisa em fontes primárias, esta dissertação procura reconstituir a história da Light, sob um foco de Taxa de Retorno sob o capital investido. Foi reconstruída a história financeira da Light no Brasil, a partir da qual calculou-se, para vários períodos e para os seus 80 anos de vida, os retornos obtidos pelos acionistas da empresa. A partir dos resultados obtidos, e utilizando-se de benchmarks comparativos, foi possível mostrar que: i) ao contrário da crença vigente à época, o retorno obtido pelo maior investidor estrangeiro no setor de infra-estrutura do Brasil do Séc. XX, se mostrou bem abaixo do mínimo aceitável, e ii) o represamento de tarifas, por várias décadas, foi de fato determinante para o subdesenvolvimento do setor de infra-estrutura no Brasil.

Speculative attacks on debts and optimum currency area: a welfare analysis

Traditionally the issue of an optimum currency area is based on the theoretical underpinnings developed in the 1960s by McKinnon [13], Kenen [12] and mainly Mundell [14], who is concerned with the benefits of lowering transaction costs vis-à- vis adjustments to asymmetrical shocks. Recently, this theme has been reappraised with new aspects included in the analysis, such as: incomplete markets, credibility of monetary policy and seigniorage, among others. For instance, Neumeyer [15] develops a general equilibrium model with incomplete asset markets and shows that a monetary union is desirable when the welfare gains of eliminating the exchange rate volatility are greater than the cost of reducing the number of currencies to hedge against risks. In this paper, we also resort to a general equilibrium model to evaluate financial aspects of an optimum currency area. Our focus is to appraise the welfare of a country heavily dependent on foreign capital that may suffer a speculative attack on its public debt. The welfare analysis uses as reference the self-fulfilling debt crisis model of Cole and Kehoe ([6], [7] and [8]), which is employed here to represent dollarization. Under this regime, the national government has no control over its monetary policy, the total public debt is denominated in dollars and it is in the hands of international bankers. To describe a country that is a member of a currency union, we modify the original Cole-Kehoe model by including public debt denominated in common currency, only purchased by national consumers. According to this rule, the member countries regain some influence over the monetary policy decision, which is, however, dependent on majority voting. We show that for specific levels of dollar debt, to create inflation tax on common-currency debt in order to avoid an external default is more desirable than to suspend its payment, which is the only choice available for a dollarized economy when foreign creditors decide not to renew their loans.

Speculative attacks, openness and crises

In this paper we propose a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to evaluate financial adjustments that some emerging market economies went through to overcome external crises during the latest decades, such as default and local currency devaluation. We assume that real devaluation can be used to avoid external debt default, to improve trade balance and to reduce the real public debt level denominated in local currency. Such effects increase the government ability to deal with external crisis, but also have costs in terms of welfare, related to expected inflation, reductions in private investments and higher interest to be paid over the public debt. We conclude that openness improves expected welfare as it allows for a better devaluation-response technology against crises. We also present results for 32 middle-income countries, verifying that the proposed model can indicate, in a stylized way, the preferences for default-devaluation options and the magnitude of the currency depreciation required to overcome 48 external crises occurred as from 1971. Finally, as we construct our model based on the Cole-Kehoe self-fulfilling debt crisis model ([7]), adding local debt and trade, it is important to say that their policy alternatives to leave the crisis zone remains in our extended model, namely, to reduce the external debt level and to lengthen its maturity.

Custos de ajustamento e a dinâmica da estrutura de capital em empresas brasileiras

Diversos estudos de Finanças Corporativas consideram os custos associados aos ajustes da estrutura de capital das empresas irrelevantes tanto na forma quanto em magnitude. Este estudo analisou empiricamente a influência dos custos de ajustamento na dinâmica dos ajustes da estrutura de capital de empresas brasileiras de capital aberto no período de 1999 a 2007. A alavancagem foi abordada sob três diferentes cenários, considerando a presença de custos fixos, custos proporcionais e por uma composição de custos fixos e proporcionais através de simulações utilizando um modelo reduzido da estrutura de capital. Em seguida a análise não paramétrica da amostra revelou que as empresas apresentam um comportamento dinâmico em suas decisões de financiamento para o ajuste da estruturas de capital, mas que não se revelou contínuo. A utilização de um modelo de duration mostrou-se adequado para mensurar o intervalo de tempo entre os ajustes da estrutura de capital das empresas. Os resultados são extremamente relevantes e suportam a teoria de um comportamento de rebalanceamento dinâmico pelas empresas de suas estruturas de capital em torno de um intervalo ótimo. Entretanto os ajustes não ocorrem de forma imediata e a persistência de choques à estrutura de capital deve-se em sua maior parte aos custos associados aos ajustes do que a uma possível indiferença à estrutura de capital. . Este trabalho constitui-se como pioneiro no mercado brasileiro acerca dos custos de ajustamento da estrutura de capital e abre espaço para a discussão do comportamento ótimo em torno da estrutura de capital de empresas nacionais.

Perfil da indústria de alimentos no Brasil: 1990-1995

A pesquisa sobre o perfil da indústria de alimentos no período de 1990-95 observou uma superior participação do grupo de produtos de maior valor agregado, com destaque para os laticínios, assim como um aumento do consumo de alimentos em geral propiciado pelo aumento da renda real dos trabalhadores após o Plano Real. Constataram-se, também, ajustes aos novos padrões de competitividade devido à abertura de mercado, com conseqüências na diminuição das margens líquidas e do número de emprego.