888 resultados para probability of precocious pregnancy


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The radiation-induced bystander effect (RIBE) increases the probability of cellular response and therefore has important implications for cancer risk assessment following low-dose irradiation and for the likelihood of secondary cancers after radiotherapy. However, our knowledge of bystander signaling factors, especially those having long half-lives, is still limited. The present study found that, when a fraction of cells within a glioblastoma population were individually irradiated with helium ions from a particle microbeam, the yield of micronuclei (MN) in the nontargeted cells was increased, but these bystander MN were eliminated by treating the cells with either aminoguanidine (an inhibitor of inducible nitric oxide (NO) synthase) or anti-transforming growth factor beta1 (anti-TGF-beta1), indicating that NO and TGF-beta1 are involved in the RIBE. Intracellular NO was detected in the bystander cells, and additional TGF-beta1 was detected in the medium from irradiated T98G cells, but it was diminished by aminoguanidine. Consistent with this, an NO donor, diethylamine nitric oxide (DEANO), induced TGF-beta1 generation in T98G cells. Conversely, treatment of cells with recombinant TGF-beta1 could also induce NO and MN in T98G cells. Treatment of T98G cells with anti-TGF-beta1 inhibited the NO production when only 1% of cells were targeted, but not when 100% of cells were targeted. Our results indicate that, downstream of radiation-induced NO, TGF-beta1 can be released from targeted T98G cells and plays a key role as a signaling factor in the RIBE by further inducing free radicals and DNA damage in the nontargeted bystander cells.

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Okadaic acid (OA) and structurally related toxins dinophysistoxin-1 (DTX-1), and DTX-2, are lipophilic marine biotoxins. The current reference method for the analysis of these toxins is the mouse bioassay (MBA). This method is under increasing criticism both from an ethical point of view and because of its limited sensitivity and specificity. Alternative replacement methods must be rapid, robust, cost effective, specific and sensitive. Although published immuno-based detection techniques have good sensitivities, they are restricted in their use because of their inability to: (i) detect all of the OA toxins that contribute to contamination; and (ii) factor in the relative toxicities of each contaminant. Monoclonal antibodies (MAbs) were produced to OA and an automated biosensor screening assay developed and compared with ELISA techniques. The screening assay was designed to increase the probability of identifying a MAb capable of detecting all OA toxins. The result was the generation of a unique MAb which not only cross-reacted with both DTX-1 and DTX-2 but had a cross-reactivity profile in buffer that reflected exactly the intrinsic toxic potency of the OA group of toxins. Preliminary matrix studies reflected these results. This antibody is an excellent candidate for the development of a range of functional immunochemical-based detection assays for this group of toxins.

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Logistic regression and Gaussian mixture model (GMM) classifiers have been trained to estimate the probability of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) in patients based upon the concentrations of a panel of cardiac markers. The panel consists of two new markers, fatty acid binding protein (FABP) and glycogen phosphorylase BB (GPBB), in addition to the traditional cardiac troponin I (cTnI), creatine kinase MB (CKMB) and myoglobin. The effect of using principal component analysis (PCA) and Fisher discriminant analysis (FDA) to preprocess the marker concentrations was also investigated. The need for classifiers to give an accurate estimate of the probability of AMI is argued and three categories of performance measure are described, namely discriminatory ability, sharpness, and reliability. Numerical performance measures for each category are given and applied. The optimum classifier, based solely upon the samples take on admission, was the logistic regression classifier using FDA preprocessing. This gave an accuracy of 0.85 (95% confidence interval: 0.78-0.91) and a normalised Brier score of 0.89. When samples at both admission and a further time, 1-6 h later, were included, the performance increased significantly, showing that logistic regression classifiers can indeed use the information from the five cardiac markers to accurately and reliably estimate the probability AMI. © Springer-Verlag London Limited 2008.

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Three experiments examined the influence of a second rule on the pattern of card selections on Wason's selection task. In Experiment 1 participants received a version of the task with a single test rule or one of two versions of the task with the same original test rule together with a second rule. The probability of q was manipulated in the two-rules conditions by varying the size of the antecedent set in the second rule. The results showed a significant suppression of q card and not-p card selections in the alternative-rule conditions, but no difference as a function of antecedent set size. In Experiment 2 the size of the antecendent set in the two-rules conditions was manipulated using the context of a computer printing double-sided cards. The results showed a significant reduction of q card selections in the two-rules conditions, but no effect of p set size. In Experiment 3 the scenario accompanying the rule was manipulated, and it specified a single alternative antecedent or a number of alternative antecedents. The q card selection rates were not affected by the scenario manipulation but again were suppressed by the presence of a second rule. Our results suggest that people make inferences about the unseen side of the cards when engaging with the task and that these inferences are systematically influenced by the presence of a second rule, but are not influenced by the probabilistic characteristics of this rule. These findings are discussed in the context of decision theoretic views of selection task performance (Oaksford Chater, 1994).

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Objective
Preliminary assessment of an automated weaning system (SmartCare™/PS) compared to usual management of weaning from mechanical ventilation performed in the absence of formal protocols.


Design and setting
A randomised, controlled pilot study in one Australian intensive care unit.


Patients
A total of 102 patients were equally divided between SmartCare/PS and Control.

Interventions
The automated system titrated pressure support, conducted a spontaneous breathing trial and provided notification of success (“separation potential”).

Measurements and results
The median time from the first identified point of suitability for weaning commencement to the state of “separation potential” using SmartCare/PS was 20 h (interquartile range, IQR, 2–40) compared to 8 h (IQR 2–43) with Control (log-rank P = 0.3). The median time to successful extubation was 43 h (IQR 6–169) using SmartCare/PS and 40 (14–87) with Control (log-rank P = 0.6). Unadjusted, the estimated probability of reaching “separation potential” was 21% lower (95% CI, 48% lower to 20% greater) with SmartCare/PS compared to Control. Adjusted for other covariates (age, gender, APACHE II, SOFAmax, neuromuscular blockade, corticosteroids, coma and elevated blood glucose), these estimates were 31% lower (95% CI, 56% lower to 9% greater) with SmartCare/PS. The study groups showed comparable rates of reintubation, non-invasive ventilation post-extubation, tracheostomy, sedation, neuromuscular blockade and use of corticosteroids.

Conclusions
Substantial reductions in weaning duration previously demonstrated were not confirmed when the SmartCare/PS system was compared to weaning managed by experienced critical care specialty nurses, using a 1:1 nurse-to-patient ratio. The effect of SmartCare/PS may be influenced by the local clinical organisational context.

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Since 1994, Irish cattle have been exposed to greater risks of acquiring Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) infection as a consequence of the importation of over 70,000 animals from continental Europe. In recent years, there has been an increase in the number of reported clinical cases of paratuberculosis in Ireland. This study examines the prevalence of factors that promote the introduction and within-herd transmission of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) on selected Irish dairy farms in the Cork region, and the association between these factors and the results of MAP screening tests on milk sock filter residue (MFR). A total of 59 dairy farms, selected using non-random methods but apparently free of endemic paratuberculosis, were enrolled into the study. A questionnaire was used to collect data about risk factors for MAP introduction and transmission. The MFR was assessed on six occasions over 24 months for the presence of MAP, using culture and immunomagnetic separation prior to polymerase chain reaction (IMS-PCR). Furthermore, blood samples from all entire male and female animals over one year of age in 20 herds were tested by ELISA. Eighteen (31%) farms had operated as closed herds since 1994, 28 (47%) had purchased from multiple sources and 14 (24%) had either direct or indirect (progeny) contact with imported animals. Milk and colostrum were mixed on 51% of farms, while 88% of farms fed pooled milk. Thirty (51%) herds tested negative to MFR culture and IMS-PCR, 12 (20%) were MFR culture positive, 26 (44%) were IMS-PCR positive and seven (12%) were both culture and IMS-PCR positive. The probability of a positive MFR culture was significantly associated with reduced attendance at calving, and with increased use of individual calf pens and increased (but not significantly) if multiple suckling was practised. There was poor agreement between MFR culture and MFR IMS-PCR results, but moderate agreement between MFR culture and ELISA test results. This study highlights a lack of awareness among Irish dairy farmers about the effect of inadequate biosecurity on MAP introduction. Furthermore, within-herd transmission will be facilitated by traditional calf rearing and waste management practices. The findings of viable MAP in the presence of known transmission factors in non-clinically affected herds could be a prelude to long-term problems for the Irish cattle and agri-business generally.

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Objectives: The Secondary Prevention of Heart disEase in geneRal practicE (SPHERE) trial has recently reported. This study examines the cost-effectiveness of the SPHERE intervention in both healthcare systems on the island of Ireland. Methods: Incremental cost-effectiveness analysis. A probabilistic model was developed to combine within-trial and beyond-trial impacts of treatment to estimate the lifetime costs and benefits of two secondary prevention strategies: Intervention - tailored practice and patient care plans; and Control - standardized usual care. Results: The intervention strategy resulted in mean cost savings per patient of 512.77 (95 percent confidence interval [CI], 1086.46-91.98) and an increase in mean quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) per patient of 0.0051 (95 percent CI, 0.0101-0.0200), when compared with the control strategy. The probability of the intervention being cost-effective was 94 percent if decision makers are willing to pay €45,000 per additional QALY. Conclusions: Decision makers in both settings must determine whether the level of evidence presented is sufficient to justify the adoption of the SPHERE intervention in clinical practice. Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2010.

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PURPOSE: Retinitis pigmentosa (RP) causes hereditary blindness in adults (prevalence, approximately 1 in 4000). Each of the more than 30 causative genes identified to date are responsible for only a small percentage of cases. Genetic diagnosis via traditional methods is problematic, and a single test with a higher probability of detecting the causative mutation would be very beneficial for the clinician. The goal of this study therefore was to develop a high-throughput screen capable of detecting both known mutations and novel mutations within all genes implicated in autosomal recessive or simplex RP. DESIGN: Evaluation of diagnostic technology. PARTICIPANTS AND CONTROLS: Participants were 56 simplex and autosomal recessive RP patients, with 360 population controls unscreened for ophthalmic disease. METHODS: A custom genechip capable of resequencing all exons containing known mutations in 19 disease-associated genes was developed (RP genechip). A second, commercially available arrayed primer extension (APEX) system was used to screen 501 individual previously reported variants. The ability of these high-throughput approaches to identify pathogenic variants was assessed in a cohort of simplex and autosomal recessive RP patients. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Number of mutations and potentially pathogenic variants identified. RESULTS: The RP genechip identified 44 sequence variants: 5 previously reported mutations; 22 known single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs); 11 novel, potentially pathogenic variants; and 6 novel SNPs. There was strong concordance with the APEX array, but only the RP genechip detected novel variants. For example, identification of a novel mutation in CRB1 revealed a patient, who also had a single previously known CRB1 mutation, to be a compound heterozygote. In some individuals, potentially pathogenic variants were discovered in more than one gene, consistent with the existence of disease modifier effects resulting from mutations at a second locus. CONCLUSIONS: The RP genechip provides the significant advantage of detecting novel variants and could be expected to detect at least one pathogenic variant in more than 50% of patients. The APEX array provides a reliable method to detect known pathogenic variants in autosomal recessive RP and simplex RP patients and is commercially available. High-throughput genotyping for RP is evolving into a clinically useful genetic diagnostic tool.

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In this article, we extend the earlier work of Freeland and McCabe [Journal of time Series Analysis (2004) Vol. 25, pp. 701–722] and develop a general framework for maximum likelihood (ML) analysis of higher-order integer-valued autoregressive processes. Our exposition includes the case where the innovation sequence has a Poisson distribution and the thinning is binomial. A recursive representation of the transition probability of the model is proposed. Based on this transition probability, we derive expressions for the score function and the Fisher information matrix, which form the basis for ML estimation and inference. Similar to the results in Freeland and McCabe (2004), we show that the score function and the Fisher information matrix can be neatly represented as conditional expectations. Using the INAR(2) speci?cation with binomial thinning and Poisson innovations, we examine both the asymptotic e?ciency and ?nite sample properties of the ML estimator in relation to the widely used conditional least
squares (CLS) and Yule–Walker (YW) estimators. We conclude that, if the Poisson assumption can be justi?ed, there are substantial gains to be had from using ML especially when the thinning parameters are large.

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A genome scan meta-analysis (GSMA) was carried out on 32 independent genome-wide linkage scan analyses that included 3255 pedigrees with 7413 genotyped cases affected with schizophrenia (SCZ) or related disorders. The primary GSMA divided the autosomes into 120 bins, rank-ordered the bins within each study according to the most positive linkage result in each bin, summed these ranks (weighted for study size) for each bin across studies and determined the empirical probability of a given summed rank (P-SR) by simulation. Suggestive evidence for linkage was observed in two single bins, on chromosomes 5q (142-168 Mb) and 2q (103-134 Mb). Genome-wide evidence for linkage was detected on chromosome 2q (119-152 Mb) when bin boundaries were shifted to the middle of the previous bins. The primary analysis met empirical criteria for 'aggregate' genome-wide significance, indicating that some or all of 10 bins are likely to contain loci linked to SCZ, including regions of chromosomes 1, 2q, 3q, 4q, 5q, 8p and 10q. In a secondary analysis of 22 studies of European-ancestry samples, suggestive evidence for linkage was observed on chromosome 8p (16-33 Mb). Although the newer genome-wide association methodology has greater power to detect weak associations to single common DNA sequence variants, linkage analysis can detect diverse genetic effects that segregate in families, including multiple rare variants within one locus or several weakly associated loci in the same region. Therefore, the regions supported by this meta-analysis deserve close attention in future studies. Molecular Psychiatry (2009) 14, 774-785; doi:10.1038/mp.2008.135; published online 30 December 2008

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Traditional business models in the aerospace industry are based on a conventional supplier to customer relationship based on the design, manufacture and subsequent delivery of the physical product. Service provision, from the manufacturer's perspective, is typically limited to the supply of procedural documentation and the provision of spare parts to the end user as the product passes through the latter stages of its intended lifecycle. Challenging economic and political conditions have resulted in end users re-structuring their core business activities, particularly in the defence sector. This has resulted in the need for original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to integrate and manage support service activities in partnership with the customer to deliver platform availability. This improves the probability of commercial sustainability for the OEM through shared operational risks while reducing the cost of platform ownership for the customer. The need for OEMs to evolve their design, manufacture and supply strategies by focusing on customer requirements has revealed a need for reconstruction of traditional internal behaviours and design methodologies. Application of organisational learning is now a well recognised principle for innovative companies to achieve long term growth and sustained technical development, and hence, greater market command. It focuses on the process by which the organisation's knowledge and value base changes, leading to improved problem solving ability and capacity for action. From the perspective of availability contracting, knowledge and the processes by which it is generated, used and retained, become primary assets within the learning organisation. This paper will introduce the application of digital methods to asset management by demonstrating how the process of learning can benefit from a digital approach, how product and process design can be integrated within a virtual framework and finally how the approach can be applied in a service context.

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Stress analysis of the cement fixation of orthopaedic implants to bone is frequently? carried out using finite element analysis. However, the stress distribution in the cement laver is usually intricate, and it is difficult to report it in a way that facilitates comparison of implants for pre-clinical testing. To study this problem, and make recommendations for stress reporting, a finite element analysis of a hip prosthesis implanted into a synthetic composite femur is developed. Three cases are analyzed: a fully bonded implant, a debonded implant, and a debonded implant where the cement is removed distal to the stein tip. In addition to peak stresses, and contour and vector plots, a stressed volume and probability-of-failure analysis is reported. It is predicted that the peak stress is highest for the debonded stem, and that removal of the distal cement more than halves this peak stress. This would suggest that omission of the distal cement is good for polished prostheses (as practiced for the Exeter design). However; if the percentage of cement stressed above a certain threshold (say 3 MPa) is considered, then the removal of distal cement is shown to be disadvantageous because a higher volume of cement is stressed to above the threshold. Vector plots clearly demonstrate the different load transfer for bonded and debonded prostheses: A bonded stein generates maximum tensile stresses in the longitudinal direction, whereas a debonded stem generates most tensile stresses in the hoop direction, except near the tip where tensile longitudinal stresses occur due to subsidence of the stein. Removal of the cement distal to the tip allows greater subsidence but alleviates these large stresses at the tip, albeit at the expense of increased hoop stresses throughout the mantle. It is concluded that a thorough analysis of cemented implants should not report peak stress, which can be misleading, but rather stressed volume, and that vector plots should be reported if a precise analysis of the load transfer mechanism is required.

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This paper studies the Demmel condition number of Wishart matrices, a quantity which has numerous applications to wireless communications, such as adaptive switching between beamforming and diversity coding, link adaptation, and spectrum sensing. For complex Wishart matrices, we give an exact analytical expression for the probability density function (p.d.f.) of the Demmel condition number, and also derive simplified expressions for the high tail regime. These results indicate that the condition of complex Wishart matrices is dominantly decided by the difference between the matrix dimension and degree of freedom (DoF), i.e., the probability of drawing a highly ill conditioned matrix decreases considerably when the difference between the matrix dimension and DoF increases. We further investigate real Wishart matrices, and derive new expressions for the p.d.f. of the smallest eigenvalue, when the difference between the matrix dimension and DoF is odd. Based on these results, we succeed to obtain an exact p.d.f. expression for the Demmel condition number, and simplified expressions for the high tail regime.

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In this paper, the distribution of the ratio of extreme eigenvalues of a complex Wishart matrix is studied in order to calculate the exact decision threshold as a function of the desired probability of false alarm for the maximum-minimum eigenvalue (MME) detector. In contrast to the asymptotic analysis reported in the literature, we consider a finite number of cooperative receivers and a finite number of samples and derive the exact decision threshold for the probability of false alarm. The proposed exact formulation is further reduced to the case of two receiver-based cooperative spectrum sensing. In addition, an approximate closed-form formula of the exact threshold is derived in terms of a desired probability of false alarm for a special case having equal number of receive antennas and signal samples. Finally, the derived analytical exact decision thresholds are verified with Monte-Carlo simulations. We show that the probability of detection performance using the proposed exact decision thresholds achieves significant performance gains compared to the performance of the asymptotic decision threshold.

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We present a detailed analysis of time-resolved optical spectra of the ZZ Ceti white dwarf, HS 0507+0434B. Using the wavelength dependence of observed mode amplitudes, we deduce the spherical degree, l, of the modes, most of which have l = 1. The presence of a large number of combination frequencies (linear sums or differences of the real modes) enabled us not only to test theoretical predictions but also to indirectly infer spherical and azimuthal degrees of real modes that had no observed splittings. In addition to the above, we measure line-of-sight velocities from our spectra. We find only marginal evidence for periodic modulation associated with the pulsation modes: at the frequency of the strongest mode in the lightcurve, we measure an amplitude of 2.6 +/- 1.0 kms(-1), which has a probability of 2% of being due to chance; for the other modes, we find lower values. Our velocity amplitudes and upper limits are smaller by a factor of two compared to the amplitudes found in ZZ Psc. We find that this is consistent with expectations based on the position of HS 0507+0434B in the instability strip. Combining all the available information from data such as ours is a first step towards constraining atmospheric properties in a convectionally unstable environment from an observational perspective.