965 resultados para predictions


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This paper describes recent updates to a milling train extraction model used to assess and predict the performance of a milling train. An extension was made to the milling unit model for the bagasse mills to replace the imbibition coefficient with crushing factor and mixing efficiency. New empirical relationships for reabsorption factor, imbibition coefficient, crushing factor, mixing efficiency and purity ratio were developed. The new empirical relationships were tested against factory measurements and previous model predictions. The updated model has been implemented in the SysCAD process modelling software. New additions to the model implementation include: a shredder model to assess or predict cane preparation, mill and shredder drives for power consumption and an updated imbibition control system to add allow water to be added to intermediate mills.

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Field emission (FE) electron gun sources provide new capabilities for high lateral resolution EPMA. The determination of analytical lateral resolution is not as straightforward as that for electron microscopy imaging. Results from two sets of experiments to determine the actual lateral resolution for accurate EPMA are presented for Kα X-ray lines of Si and Al and Lα of Fe at 5 and 7 keV in a silicate glass. These results are compared to theoretical predictions and Monte Carlo simulations of analytical lateral resolution. The experiments suggest little is gained in lateral resolution by dropping from 7 to 5 keV in EPMA of this silicate glass.

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Spoken word production is assumed to involve stages of processing in which activation spreads through layers of units comprising lexical-conceptual knowledge and their corresponding phonological word forms. Using high-field (4T) functional magnetic resonance imagine (fMRI), we assessed whether the relationship between these stages is strictly serial or involves cascaded-interactive processing, and whether central (decision/control) processing mechanisms are involved in lexical selection. Participants performed the competitor priming paradigm in which distractor words, named from a definition and semantically related to a subsequently presented target picture, slow picture-naming latency compared to that with unrelated words. The paradigm intersperses two trials between the definition and the picture to be named, temporally separating activation in the word perception and production networks. Priming semantic competitors of target picture names significantly increased activation in the left posterior temporal cortex, and to a lesser extent the left middle temporal cortex, consistent with the predictions of cascaded-interactive models of lexical access. In addition, extensive activation was detected in the anterior cingulate and pars orbitalis of the inferior frontal gyrus. The findings indicate that lexical selection during competitor priming is biased by top-down mechanisms to reverse associations between primed distractor words and target pictures to select words that meet the current goal of speech.

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Cued recall and item recognition are considered the standard episodic memory retrieval tasks. However, only the neural correlates of the latter have been studied in detail with fMRI. Using an event-related fMRI experimental design that permits spoken responses, we tested hypotheses from an auto-associative model of cued recall and item recognition [Chappell, M., & Humphreys, M. S. (1994). An auto-associative neural network for sparse representations: Analysis and application to models of recognition and cued recall. Psychological Review, 101, 103-128]. In brief, the model assumes that cues elicit a network of phonological short term memory (STM) and semantic long term memory (LTM) representations distributed throughout the neocortex as patterns of sparse activations. This information is transferred to the hippocampus which converges upon the item closest to a stored pattern and outputs a response. Word pairs were learned from a study list, with one member of the pair serving as the cue at test. Unstudied words were also intermingled at test in order to provide an analogue of yes/no recognition tasks. Compared to incorrectly rejected studied items (misses) and correctly rejected (CR) unstudied items, correctly recalled items (hits) elicited increased responses in the left hippocampus and neocortical regions including the left inferior prefrontal cortex (LIPC), left mid lateral temporal cortex and inferior parietal cortex, consistent with predictions from the model. This network was very similar to that observed in yes/no recognition studies, supporting proposals that cued recall and item recognition involve common rather than separate mechanisms.

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To investigate potentially dissociable recognition memory responses in the hippocampus and perirhinal cortex, fMRI studies have often used confidence ratings as an index of memory strength. Confidence ratings, although correlated with memory strength, also reflect sources of variability, including task-irrelevant item effects and differences both within and across individuals in terms of applying decision criteria to separate weak from strong memories. We presented words one, two, or four times at study in each of two different conditions, focused and divided attention, and then conducted separate fMRI analyses of correct old responses on the basis of subjective confidence ratings or estimates from single- versus dual-process recognition memory models. Overall, the effect of focussing attention on spaced repetitions at study manifested as enhanced recognition memory performance. Confidence- versus model-based analyses revealed disparate patterns of hippocampal and perirhinal cortex activity at both study and test and both within and across hemispheres. The failure to observe equivalent patterns of activity indicates that fMRI signals associated with subjective confidence ratings reflect additional sources of variability. The results are consistent with predictions of single-process models of recognition memory.

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Recent research on hollow flange beams has led to the development of an innovative rectangular hollow flange channel beam (RHFCB) for use in floor systems. The new RHFCB is a mono-symmetric structural section made by intermittently rivet fastening two torsionally rigid closed rectangular hollow flanges to a web plate element, which allows section optimisation by selecting appropriate combinations of web and flange widths and thicknesses. However, the current design rules for cold-formed steel sections are not directly applicable to rivet fastened RHFCBs. To date, no investigation has been conducted on their web crippling behaviour and strengths. Hence an experimental study was conducted to investigate the web crippling behaviour and capacities of rivet fastened RHFCBs under End Two Flange (ETF) and Interior Two Flange (ITF) load cases. It showed that RHFCBs failed by web crippling, flange crushing and their combinations. Comparison of ultimate web crippling capacities with the predictions from the design equations in AS/NZS 4600 and AISI S100 showed that the current design equations are unconservative for rivet fastened RHFCB sections under ETF and ITF load cases. Hence new equations were proposed to determine the web crippling capacities of rivet fastened RHFCBs. These equations can also be used to predict the capacities of RHFCBs subject to combined web crippling and flange crushing conservatively. However, new capacity equations were proposed in the case of flange crushing failures that occurred in thinner flanges with smaller bearing lengths. This paper presents the details of this web crippling experimental study of RHFCB sections and the results.

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Klaassen and Magnus (2003) provide a model of the probability of a given player winning a tennis match, with the prediction updated on a point-by-point basis. This paper provides a point-by-point comparison of that model with the probability of a given player winning the match, as implied by betting odds. The predictions implied by the betting odds match the model predictions closely, with an extremely high correlation being found between the model and the betting market. The results for both men’s and women’s matches also suggest that there is a high level of efficiency in the betting market, demonstrating that betting markets are a good predictor of the outcomes of tennis matches. The significance of service breaks and service being held is anticipated up to four points prior to the end of the game. However, the tendency of players to lose more points than would be expected after conceding a break of service is not captured instantaneously in betting odds. In contrast, there is no evidence of a biased reaction to a player winning a game on service.

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Common to many types of water and wastewater is the presence of sodium ions which can be removed by desalination technologies, such as reverse osmosis and ion exchange. The focus of this investigation was ion exchange as it potentially offered several advantages compared to competing methods. The equilibrium and column behaviour of a strong acid cation (SAC) resin was examined for the removal of sodium ions from aqueous sodium chloride solutions of varying normality as well as a coal seam gas water sample. The influence of the bottle-point method to generate the sorption isotherms was evaluated and data interpreted with the Langmuir Vageler, Competitive Langmuir, Freundlich, and Dubinin-Astakhov models. With the constant concentration bottle point method, the predicted maximum exchange levels of sodium ions on the resin ranged from 61.7 to 67.5 g Na/kg resin. The general trend was that the lower the initial concentration of sodium ions in the solution, the lower the maximum capacity of the resin for sodium ions. In contrast, the constant mass bottle point method was found to be problematic in that the isotherm profiles may not be complete, if experimental parameters were not chosen carefully. Column studies supported the observations of the equilibrium studies, with maximum sodium loading of ca. 62.9 g Na/kg resin measured, which was in excellent agreement with the predictions of the data from the constant concentration bottle point method. Equilibria involving coal seam gas water were more complex due to the presence of sodium bicarbonate in solution, albeit the maximum loading capacity for sodium ions was in agreement with the results from the more simple sodium chloride solutions.

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Since ethnic differences exist in body composition, assessment methods need to be validated prior to use in different populations. This study attempts to validate the use of Sri Lankan based body composition assessment tools on a group of 5 - 15 year old Australian children of Sri Lankan origin. The study was conducted at the Body Composition Laboratory of the Children’s Nutrition Research Centre at the Royal Children’s Hospital, Brisbane, Australia. Height (Ht), weight (Wt), segmental length (Lsegment name) and skinfold thickness (SFT) were measured. The whole body and segmental bio impedance analysis (BIA) were also measured. The body composition determined by the deuterium dilution technique (criterion method) was compared with the assessments done using prediction equations developed on Sri Lankan children. 27 boys and 15 girls were studied. All predictions of body composition parameters, except percentage fat mass (FM) assessed by the SFT-FM equation in girls gave statistically significant correlations with the criterion method. They had a low mean bias and most were not influenced by the measured parameter. Although living in a different socioeconomic state, the equations developed on children of the same ethnic background gives a better predictive value of body composition. This highlights the ethnic influence on body composition.

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Lipped channel beams (LCBs) are commonly used as floor joists and bearers in buildings. However, they are subjected to specific failure modes such as web crippling. Despite considerable web crippling research, recent studies [1-6] have shown that the current web crippling design rules are unable to predict the test capacities under ETF and ITF load cases. In many instances, the predictions by the available design standards such as AISI S100, AS/NZS 4600 and Eurocode 3 Part 1-3 [7-9] are inconsistent. Hence thirty-six tests were conducted to assess the web crippling behaviour and strengths of LCBs under two flange load cases. Experimental web crippling capacities were then compared with the predictions from the current design rules. These comparisons showed that AS/NZS 4600 and AISI S100 design equations are very unconservative for LCB sections under ETF load case and are conservative for ITF load case. Hence improved equations were proposed to determine the web crippling capacities of LCBs. Suitable design rules were also developed using the direct strength method. This paper presents the details of this study and the results including improved design rules.

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Partially grouted masonry walls subjected to in-plane shear exhibit a complex behaviour because of the influence of the aspect ratio, the pre-compression, the grouting pattern, the ratios of the horizontal and the vertical reinforcements, the boundary conditions and the characteristics of the constituent materials. The existing in-plane shear expressions for the partially grouted masonry are formulated as sum of strength of three parameters, namely, the masonry, the reinforcement and the axial force. The parameter ‘masonry’ includes the wall aspect ratio and the masonry compressive strength; the aspect ratio of the unreinforced panel inscribed into the grouted cores and bond beams are not considered, although failure is often dominated by these unreinforced masonry panels. This paper describes the dominance of these panels, particularly those that are squat, to the shear capacity of whole of shear walls. Further, the current design formulae are shown highly un-conservative by many researchers; this paper provides a potential reason for this un-conservativeness. It is shown that by including an additional term of the unreinforced panel aspect ratio a rational design formula could be established. This new expression is validated with independent test results reported in the literature – both Australian and overseas; the predictions are shown to be conservative.

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This chapter addresses opportunities for problem posing in developing young children’s statistical literacy, with a focus on student-directed investigations. Although the notion of problem posing has broadened in recent years, there nevertheless remains limited research on how problem posing can be integrated within the regular mathematics curriculum, especially in the areas of statistics and probability. The chapter first reviews briefly aspects of problem posing that have featured in the literature over the years. Consideration is next given to the importance of developing children’s statistical literacy in which problem posing is an inherent feature. Some findings from a school playground investigation conducted in four, fourth-grade classes illustrate the different ways in which children posed investigative questions, how they made predictions about their outcomes and compared these with their findings, and the ways in which they chose to represent their findings.

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We read with great interest the paper by Laivoranta-Nyman et al.1 They studied Finnish patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and controls, and suggested that there exist susceptibility, neutral and protective HLA-DR-DQ haplotypes that do not match the predictions of current hypotheses for the mechanism of association of the HLA class II region and RA...

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To The ratcheting behavior of high-strength rail steel (Australian Standard AS1085.1) is studied in this work for the purpose of predicting wear and damage to the rail surface. Historically, researchers have used circular test coupons obtained from the rail head to conduct cyclic load tests, but according to hardness profile data, considerable variation exists across the rail head section. For example, the induction-hardened rail (AS1085.1) shows high hardness (400-430 HV100) up to four-millimeters into the rail head’s surface, but then drops considerably beyond that. Given that cyclic test coupons five millimeters in diameter at the gauge area are usually taken from the rail sample, there is a high probability that the original surface properties of the rail do not apply across the entire test coupon and, therefore, data representing only average material properties are obtained. In the literature, disks (47 mm in diameter) for a twin-disk rolling contact test machine have been obtained directly from the rail sample and used to validate rolling contact fatigue wear models. The question arises: How accurate are such predictions? In this research paper, the effect of rail sampling position on the ratcheting behavior of AS1085.1 rail steel was investigated using rectangular shaped specimens. Uniaxial stress-controlled tests were conducted with samples obtained at four different depths to observe the ratcheting behaviour of each. Micro-hardness measurements of the test coupons were carried out to obtain a constitutive relationship to predict the effect of depth on the ratcheting behaviour of the rail material. This work ultimately assists the selection of valid material parameters for constitutive models in the study of rail surface ratcheting.

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We provide the first evidence for interspecific warfare in bees, a spectacular natural phenomenon that involves a series of aerial battles and leads to thousands of fatalities from both attacking and defending colonies. Molecular analysis of fights at a hive of the Australian stingless bee Tetragonula carbonaria revealed that the attack was launched by a related species, Tetragonula hockingsi, which has only recently extended its habitat into southeastern Queensland. Following a succession of attacks by the same T. hockingsi colony over a 4-month period, the defending T. carbonaria colony was defeated and the hive usurped, with the invading colony installing a new queen. We complemented our direct observations with a 5-year study of more than 260 Tetragonula hives and found interspecific hive changes, which were likely to be usurpation events, occurring in 46 hives over this period. We discuss how fighting swarms and hive usurpation fit with theoretical predictions on the evolution of fatal fighting and highlight the many unexplained features of these battles that warrant further study.