807 resultados para positive predictive value
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Background: In Virology Journal 2011, 8: 535, Neto et al. described point mutations into Tax-responsive elements (TRE) of the LTR region of HTLV-1 isolates from asymptomatic carriers from Sao Paulo, Brazil, and hypothesized that the presence of the G232A mutation in the TRE-1 increase viral proliferation and consequently the proviral load (PvL), while the A184G mutation in the TRE-2 do not have such effect. Findings: We performed the real-time PCR assay (pol) and sequenced LTR region of HTLV-1 isolates from 24 HIV/HTLV-1-coinfected patients without HTLV-1-associated diseases from the same geographic area. These sequences were classified as belonging to the transcontinental subgroup A of the Cosmopolitan subtype a. The frequency of G232A mutation (16/24, 66.7%) was high as much as 61.8% reported by Neto's in HTLV-1 asymptomatic carriers with high PvL. High frequency (13/24, 54.2%) of double mutations G232A and A184G was also detected in HIV/HTLV-1-coinfected patients. We did not quantify PvL, but comparative analyses of the cycle threshold (Ct) median values of the group of isolates presenting the mutated-types sequences (Ct 33.5, n = 16) versus the group of isolates with the wild-type sequences (Ct 32, n = 8) showed no statistical difference (p = 0.4220). Conclusion: The frequencies of mutated-type sequences in the TRE-1 and TRE-2 motifs were high in HIV/HTLV-1-coinfected patients from Sao Paulo, Brazil. If these LTR point mutations have predictive value for the development of HTLV-1-associated diseases or they correspond to the subtype of virus that circulate in this geographic area has to be determined.
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Background and Purpose: Oropharyngeal dysphagia is a common manifestation in acute stroke. Aspiration resulting from difficulties in swallowing is a symptom that should be considered due to the frequent occurrence of aspiration pneumonia that could influence the patient's recovery as it causes clinical complications and could even lead to the patient's death. The early clinical evaluation of swallowing disorders can help define approaches and avoid oral feeding, which may be detrimental to the patient. This study aimed to create an algorithm to identify patients at risk of developing dysphagia following acute ischemic stroke in order to be able to decide on the safest way of feeding and minimize the complications of stroke using the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NHISS). Methods: Clinical assessment of swallowing was performed in 50 patients admitted to the emergency unit of the University Hospital, Faculty of Medicine of Ribeirao Preto, Sao Paulo, Brazil, with a diagnosis of ischemic stroke, within 48 h after the beginning of symptoms. Patients, 25 females and 25 males with a mean age of 64.90 years (range 26-91 years), were evaluated consecutively. An anamnesis was taken before the patient's participation in the study in order to exclude a prior history of deglutition difficulties. For the functional assessment of swallowing, three food consistencies were used, i.e. pasty, liquid and solid. After clinical evaluation, we concluded whether there was dysphagia. For statistical analysis we used the Fisher exact test, verifying the association between the variables. To assess whether the NIHSS score characterizes a risk factor for dysphagia, a receiver operational characteristics curve was constructed to obtain characteristics for sensitivity and specificity. Results: Dysphagia was present in 32% of the patients. The clinical evaluation is a reliable method of detection of swallowing difficulties. However, the predictors of risk for the swallowing function must be balanced, and the level of consciousness and the presence of preexisting comorbidities should be considered. Gender, age and cerebral hemisphere involved were not significantly associated with the presence of dysphagia. NIHSS, Glasgow Coma Scale, and speech and language changes had a statistically significant predictive value for the presence of dysphagia. Conclusions: The NIHSS is highly sensitive (88%) and specific (85%) in detecting dysphagia; a score of 12 may be considered as the cutoff value. The creation of an algorithm to detect dysphagia in acute ischemic stroke appears to be useful in selecting the optimal feeding route while awaiting a specialized evaluation. Copyright (C) 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel
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Autoantibodies in early rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have important diagnostic value. The association between the presence of autoantibodies against cyclic citrullinated peptide and the response to treatment is controversial. To prospectively evaluate a cohort of patients with early rheumatoid arthritis (< 12 months of symptoms) in order to determine the association between serological markers (rheumatoid factor (RF), anti-citrullinated protein antibodies) such as anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide antibodies (anti-CCP) and citrullinated anti-vimentin (anti-Sa) with the occurrence of clinical remission, forty patients diagnosed with early RA at the time of diagnosis were evaluated and followed for 3 years, in use of standardized therapeutic treatment. Demographic and clinical data were recorded, disease activity score 28 (DAS 28), as well as serology tests (ELISA) for RF (IgM, IgG, and IgA), anti-CCP (CCP2, CCP3, and CCP3.1) and anti-Sa in the initial evaluation and at 3, 6, 12, 18, 24, and 36 months of follow-up. The outcome evaluated was the percentage of patients with clinical remission, which was defined by DAS 28 lower than 2.6. Comparisons were made through the Student t test, mixed-effects regression analysis, and analysis of variance (significance level of 5%). The mean age was 45 years, and a female predominance was observed (90%). At the time of diagnosis, RF was observed in 50% of cases (RF IgA-42%, RF IgG-30%, and RF IgM-50%), anti-CCP in 50% (no difference between CCP2, CCP3, and CCP3.1) and anti-Sa in 10%. After 3 years, no change in the RF prevalence and anti-CCP was observed, but the anti-Sa increased to 17.5% (P = 0.001). The percentage of patients in remission, low, moderate, and intense disease activity, according to the DAS 28, was of 0, 0, 7.5, and 92.5% (initial evaluation) and 22.5, 7.5, 32.5, and 37.5% (after 3 years). There were no associations of the presence of autoantibodies in baseline evaluation and in serial analysis with the percentage of clinical remission during follow-up of 3 years The presence of autoantibodies in early RA has no predictive value for clinical remission in early RA.
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Objective: To determine the accuracy of the Timed Up and Go Test (TUGT) for screening the risk of falls among community-dwelling elderly individuals. Method: This is a prospective cohort study with a randomly by lots without reposition sample stratified by proportional partition in relation to gender involving 63 community-dwelling elderly individuals. Elderly individuals who reported having Parkinson's disease, a history of transitory ischemic attack, stroke and with a Mini Mental State Exam lower than the expected for the education level, were on a wheelchair and that reported a single fall in the previous six months were excluded. The TUGT, a mobility test, was the measure of interested and the occurrence of falls was the outcome. The performance of basic activities of daily living (ADL) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) was determined through the Older American Resources and Services, and the socio-demographic and clinical data were determined through the use of additional questionnaires. Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves were used to analyze the sensitivity and specificity of the TUGT. Results: Elderly individuals who fell had greater difficulties in ADL and IADL (p<0.01) and a slower performance on the TUGT (p=0.02). No differences were found in socio-demographic and clinical characteristics between fallers and non- fallers. Considering the different sensitivity and specificity, the best predictive value for discriminating elderly individuals who fell was 12.47 seconds [(RR= 3.2) 95% CI: 1.3- 7.7]. Conclusions: The TUGT proved to be an accurate measure for screening the risk of falls among elderly individuals. Although different from that reported in the international literature, the 12.47 second cutoff point seems to be a better predictive value for Brazilian elderly individuals.
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OBJECTIVE: To assess the effectiveness of ultrasound in the antenatal prediction of symptomatic congenital cytomegalovirus infection. STUDY DESIGN: The sonograms of 650 fetuses from mothers with primary cytomegalovirus infection were correlated to fetal/neonatal outcome. Infection status was disclosed by viral urine isolation at birth or CMV tissue inclusions at autopsy. Classification of symptomatic disease was based on postnatal clinical/laboratory findings or macroscopic evidence of tissue damage at autopsy. RESULTS: Ultrasound abnormalities were found in 51/600 (8.5%) mothers with primary infection and in 23/154 congenitally infected fetuses (14.9%). Symptomatic congenital infection resulted in 18/23 and 68/131 cases with or without abnormal sonographic findings, respectively. Positive predictive values of ultrasound versus symptomatic congenital infection was 35.3% relating to all fetuses/infants from mothers with primary infection and 78.3% relating to fetuses/infants with congenital infection. CONCLUSION: When fetal infection status is unknown, ultrasound abnormalities only predict symptomatic congenital infection in a third of cases.
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Gliomas are the most common primary brain tumours. Despite advances in surgical techniques, postoperative supportive care, radiation and adjuvant systemic therapy, the life expectancy of patients with high grade glioma has remained essentially poor. Furthermore differential diagnosis among astrocytomas, oligodendrogliomas and oligoastrocytomas is very challenging and subject to inter-observer variability. The purpose of the research was: 1) to investigate a series of high grade and low grade gliomas at gene and protein (immunohistochemistry) levels to disclose possible genetic portraits of malignancy; 2) to verify the utility of Nogo-A, Olig-2 and synaptophysin in providing a correct histological diagnosis of oligodendroglioma and to investigate a possible complementary role in selecting the best areas suitable for detecting 1p/19q codeletion using FISH analysis; 3) to study the role of microRNA in high grade gliomas. In order to obtain these goals large series of brain tumors were studied with DNA microarrays, immunohistochemistry and RT-PCR The results demonstrated that: - Overexpression of IGFBP-2 and CDC20 is highly related to glioblastomas and their immunopositivity can be useful for the identification of glioblastoma in small biopsies. - Nogo-A is the most useful and specific marker in differentiating oigodendrogliomas from other gliomas. Furthermore, using a Nogo-A driven FISH analysis, it is possible to identify a larger number of 1p19q codeletions in gliomas. - microRNAs can be studied in paraffin embedded tissues better than in fresh tissues. A series of six microRNA, significatively deregulated in glioblastomas, may represent a genetic signature with prognostic and predictive value and could constitute candidates for novel anti-cancer therapeutics.
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Background. Outcome of elderly acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients is dismal. Targeted-therapies might improve current results by overcoming drug-resistance and reducing toxicity. Aim. We conduced a phase II study aiming to assess efficacy and toxicity of Tipifarnib (Zarnestra®) and Bortezomib (Velcade®) association in AML patients >18 years, unfit for conventional therapy, or >60 years, in relapse. Furthermore, we aimed to evaluated the predictive value of the RASGRP1/APTX ratio, which was previously found to be associated to treatment sensitivity in patients receiving Zarnestra alone. Methods. Velcade (1.0 mg/m2) was administered as weekly infusion for 3 weeks (days 1, 8, 15). Zarnestra was administered at dose of 300-600 mg BID for 21 consecutive days. Real-time quantitative-PCR (q-PCR) was used for RASGRP1/APTX quantification. Results. 50 patients were enrolled. Median age was 71 years (56-89). 3 patients achieved complete remission (CR) and 1 partial response (PR). 2 patients obtained an hematological improvement (HI), and 3 died during marrow aplasia. 10 had progressive disease (PD) and the remaining showed stable disease (SD). RASGRP1/APTX was evaluated before treatment initiation on bone marrow (BM) and/or peripheral blood (PB). The median RASGRP/APTX value on BM was higher in responder (R) patients than in non responders (NR) ones, respectively (p=0.006). Interestingly, no marrow responses were recorded in patients with BM RASGRP1/APTX ratio <12, while the response rate was 50% in patients with ratio >12. Toxicity was overall mild, the most common being febrile neutropenia. Conclusion. We conclude that the clinical efficacy of the combination Zarnestra-Velcade was similar to what reported for Zarnestra alone. However we could confirm that the RASGPR1/APTX level is an effective predictor of response. Though higher RASGRP1/APTX is relatively rare (~10% of cases), Zarnestra (±Velcade) may represent an important option in a subset of high risk/frail AML patients.
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Oral cavity cancers (OSCC) are among the most malignances worldwide. OSCC tipically affects men in their IV or V dedade of life, and the most relevant risk factors are tobacco and alcohol consumption. OSCCs generally exhibit poor prognosis, and late stage identification correlates with higher mortality rates. Basic prognostic factors, are tumor size and presence of lymph node and/or distance metastases (T classification, N, M). However, tumors with the same TNM grade and similar morphology may have completely different evolution, because of their intrinsic biological characteristics. For these reasons, the identification of new molecular markers with a predictive value, could represent useful tools in OSCC prevention, prognosis and treatment. In the first part of my PhD project I evaluated the loss of heterozygosity as a possible cause of deregulation of well-known tumor suppressors genes. Obtained data put on light the importance of this rearrangement and genes PDCD4, CTNB1, CASP4 and HSP23, in the onset and progression of OSCC. Subsequently, the analysis of the expression profile of miRNAs, led to the identification of some miRNAs that seems to be involved in cancer development and metastatic progression. In both cases, we need further investigations to understand whether these molecules may be used ideal markers in OSCC diagnosis and treatment.
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La maggior parte dei pazienti che vengono sottoposti a interventi chirurgici per tumori solidi hanno un’età superiore a 70 anni1. Circa il 30% di questi pazienti vengono considerati “fragili”. Questi infatti presentano numerose comorbidità ed hanno un più elevato rischio di sviluppare complicanze postoperatorie con perdita della riserva funzionale residua. Per questo non esistono sistemi semplici di screening che permettano ai medici responsabili del trattamento di identificare questi pazienti con aumentato rischio postoperatorio. Identificare i pazienti a rischio è infatti il primo passo nel processo attraverso il quale è possibile prevenire in necessarie complicanze postoperatorie come delirio, eventi cardiovascolari e perdita della funzionalità complessiva con conseguente perdita di autonomia. Scopo di questo studio è quello di confrontare l’accuratezza nella previsione di mortalità e morbidità a 30 giorni dei tre test preditivi “Groningen Frailty Index” (GFI); “Vulnerable Elders Survey” (VES-13); “timed up and go test” con alcune componenti del Preoperative Assessment of Cancer in the Elderly (PACE). Lo studio verrà effettuato sui pazienti con età maggiore di 70 anni che dovranno essere sottoposti a intervento chirurgico in anestesia generale per la presenza di una neoplasia solida.
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Die Arzneimittelcompliance hat eine hohe Vorhersagekraft für den Ausgang einer Organtransplantation. Allerdings wurden soweit keine Studien zur Arzneimittelcompliance mittels eletronischen Compliancemessung bei Dialyse- und Leberzirrhosepatienten durchgeführt. Das primäre Ziel dieser Studie war die Arzneimittelcompliance dieser beiden Patientenkollektive zu evaluieren und als sekundäres Ziel wurden die Einflussfaktoren von Non-Compliance untersucht. rnLeberzirrhosepatinten, die Propranolol und Dialysepatienten, die Phosphatbinder, jeweils 3 x tgl. einnahmen, konnten in der Studie teilnehmen. Die Arzneimittelcompliance wurde mittels MEMSTM über einen Zeitraum von jeweils 6 Monaten bestimmt. Des Weiteren wurde nach Einflussfaktoren wie die demopraphischen Daten, Depression, Lebensqualität und der Gesundheitszustand, bei den Dialysepatienten zusätzlich die Formulierung der Phosphatbinder und die Anzahl evaluiert. Zwischen den organinsuffizienten Patientenkollektiven war ein signifikanter Unterschied in der Dosing Compliancerate auszumachen (p<0,023). Die mittlere DC Rate war bei 61%±6% für Leberzirrhosepatienten im Vergleich zu 43%±5% in Dialysepatienten. Nur 10 Leberzirrhosepatienten (30%) and 6 Dialysepatienten (17%) konnten als compliant eingestuft werden. Je höher die Phosphatbinderdosen waren, umso niedrigere Dosing Complianceraten wurden erzielt. Bei 1,5-3 Tabletten pro Tag betrug die Compliancerate 55%±8% (n=16), bei 4-6 Tabletten pro Tag nur noch 37%±7% (n=15) und bei mehr als 7 Tabletten lediglich 21%±10% (n=5) (p<0,036). Bei den Dialysepatienten war jedoch auffällig, dass die Dosing Compliancerate in Abhängigkeit von der Anzahl der dokumentierten Erkrankungen inkl. Grunderkrankung stieg (Dosing Compliancerate 34%±9% für ≤1 Grunderkrankung, 42%±6% für 1-4 Komorbiditäten, 83%±3% für ≥5 Komorbiditäten; p<0,036).Das geringe Patientenwissen über die Arzneimittel und die Erkrankung und die niedrige Compliancerate bedürfen weitere Untersuchungen um die Aspekte zu verbessern. Diese Studie zeigte das eine pharmazeutische Betreuung schon vor einer Transplantation benötigt wird. Aber eine pharmazeutische Betreuung ist sehr kosten- und zeitintensiv. Vielleicht müssen neue Modelle der pharmazeutische Betreuung untersucht werden oder non-compliante Patienten müssen noch besser identifiziert werden für eine selektive pharmazeutische Betreuung.
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OBJECTIVES: Hypoglycaemia (glucose <2.2 mmol/l) is a defining feature of severe malaria, but the significance of other levels of blood glucose has not previously been studied in children with severe malaria. METHODS: A prospective study of 437 consecutive children with presumed severe malaria was conducted in Mali. We defined hypoglycaemia as <2.2 mmol/l, low glycaemia as 2.2-4.4 mmol/l and hyperglycaemia as >8.3 mmol/l. Associations between glycaemia and case fatality were analysed for 418 children using logistic regression models and a receiver operator curve (ROC). RESULTS: There was a significant difference between blood glucose levels in children who died (median 4.6 mmol/l) and survivors (median 7.6 mmol/l, P < 0.001). Case fatality declined from 61.5% of the hypoglycaemic children to 46.2% of those with low glycaemia, 13.4% of those with normal glycaemia and 7.6% of those with hyperglycaemia (P < 0.001). Logistic regression showed an adjusted odds ratio (AOR) of 0.75 (0.64-0.88) for case fatality per 1 mmol/l increase in baseline blood glucose. Compared to a normal blood glucose, hypoglycaemia and low glycaemia both significantly increased the odds of death (AOR 11.87, 2.10-67.00; and 5.21, 1.86-14.63, respectively), whereas hyperglycaemia reduced the odds of death (AOR 0.34, 0.13-0.91). The ROC [area under the curve at 0.753 (95% CI 0.684-0.820)] indicated that glycaemia had a moderate predictive value for death and identified an optimal threshold at glycaemia <6.1 mmol/l, (sensitivity 64.5% and specificity 75.1%). CONCLUSIONS: If there is a threshold of blood glucose which defines a worse prognosis, it is at a higher level than the current definition of 2.2 mmol/l.
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PURPOSE To develop a score predicting the risk of adverse events (AEs) in pediatric patients with cancer who experience fever and neutropenia (FN) and to evaluate its performance. PATIENTS AND METHODS Pediatric patients with cancer presenting with FN induced by nonmyeloablative chemotherapy were observed in a prospective multicenter study. A score predicting the risk of future AEs (ie, serious medical complication, microbiologically defined infection, radiologically confirmed pneumonia) was developed from a multivariate mixed logistic regression model. Its cross-validated predictive performance was compared with that of published risk prediction rules. Results An AE was reported in 122 (29%) of 423 FN episodes. In 57 episodes (13%), the first AE was known only after reassessment after 8 to 24 hours of inpatient management. Predicting AE at reassessment was better than prediction at presentation with FN. A differential leukocyte count did not increase the predictive performance. The score predicting future AE in 358 episodes without known AE at reassessment used the following four variables: preceding chemotherapy more intensive than acute lymphoblastic leukemia maintenance (weight = 4), hemoglobin > or = 90 g/L (weight = 5), leukocyte count less than 0.3 G/L (weight = 3), and platelet count less than 50 G/L (weight = 3). A score (sum of weights) > or = 9 predicted future AEs. The cross-validated performance of this score exceeded the performance of published risk prediction rules. At an overall sensitivity of 92%, 35% of the episodes were classified as low risk, with a specificity of 45% and a negative predictive value of 93%. CONCLUSION This score, based on four routinely accessible characteristics, accurately identifies pediatric patients with cancer with FN at risk for AEs after reassessment.
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Prediction of long-term disability in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) is essential. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) measurement of brain volume may be of predictive value but sophisticated MRI techniques are often inaccessible in clinical practice. The corpus callosum index (CCI) is a normalized measurement that reflects changes of brain volume. We investigated medical records and 533 MRI scans at diagnosis and during clinical follow-up of 169 MS patients (mean age 42 +/- 11 years, 86% relapsing-remitting MS, time since first relapse 11 +/- 9 years). CCI at diagnosis was 0.345 +/- 0.04 and correlated with duration of disease (p = 0.002; r = -0.234) and expanded disability status scale (EDSS) score at diagnosis (r = -0.428; p < 0.001). Linear regression analyses identified age, duration of disease, relapse rate and EDSS at diagnosis as independent predictors for disability after mean of 7.1 years (Nagelkerkes' R:0.56). Annual CCI decrease was 0.01 +/- 0.02 (annual tissue loss: 1.3%). In secondary progressive MS patients, CCI decrease was double compared to that in relapsing-remitting MS patients (p = 0.04). There was a trend of greater CCI decrease in untreated patients compared to those who received disease modifying drugs (p = 0.2). CCI is an easy to use MRI marker for estimating brain atrophy in patients with MS. Brain atrophy as measured with CCI was associated with disability progression but it was not an independent predictor of long-term disability.
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Objective : To compare two scoring systems: the Huddart/Bodenham system (HB system) and the Bauru-BCLP yardstick (BCLP yardstick), which classify treatment outcome in terms of dental arch relationships in patients with complete bilateral cleft lip and palate (CBCLP). The predictive value of these scoring systems for treatment outcome was also evaluated. Design : Retrospective longitudinal study. Patients : Dental arch relationships of 43 CBCLP patients were evaluated at 6, 9, and 12 years. Setting : Treatment outcome in BCLP patients using two scoring systems. Main Outcome Measures : For each age group, the HB scores were correlated with the BCLP yardstick scores using Spearman's correlation coefficient. The predictive value of the two scoring systems was evaluated by backward regression analysis. Results : Intraobserver Kappa values for the BCLP yardstick scoring for the two observers were .506 and .627, respectively, and the interobserver reliability ranged from .427 and .581. The intraobserver reliability for the HB system ranged from .92 to .97 and the interobserver reliability from .88 to .96. The BCLP yardstick scores of 6 and 9 years together were predictors for the outcome at 12 years (explained variance 41.3%). Adding the incisor and lateral HB scores in the regression model increased the explained variance to 67%. Conclusions : The BCLP yardstick and the HB system are reliable scoring systems for evaluation of dental arch relationships of CBCLP patients. The HB system categorizes treatment outcome into similar categories as the BCLP yardstick. In case a more sensitive measure of treatment outcome is needed, selectively both scoring systems should be used.
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Procalcitonin has been well established as an important marker of sepsis and systemic infection. The authors evaluated the diagnostic and predictive value of calcitonin and its prohormone procalcitonin in medullary thyroid cancer.