Evaluation Of Reservoir Model Integration With Deterministic And Probabilistic Streamflow Forecasts

Due to the increase in water demand and hydropower energy, it is getting more important to operate hydraulic structures in an efficient manner while sustaining multiple demands. Especially, companies, governmental agencies, consultant offices require effective, practical integrated tools and decision support frameworks to operate reservoirs, cascades of run-of-river plants and related elements such as canals by merging hydrological and reservoir simulation/optimization models with various numerical weather predictions, radar and satellite data. The model performance is highly related with the streamflow forecast, related uncertainty and its consideration in the decision making. While deterministic weather predictions and its corresponding streamflow forecasts directly restrict the manager to single deterministic trajectories, probabilistic forecasts can be a key solution by including uncertainty in flow forecast scenarios for dam operation. The objective of this study is to compare deterministic and probabilistic streamflow forecasts on an earlier developed basin/reservoir model for short term reservoir management. The study is applied to the Yuvacık Reservoir and its upstream basin which is the main water supply of Kocaeli City located in the northwestern part of Turkey. The reservoir represents a typical example by its limited capacity, downstream channel restrictions and high snowmelt potential. Mesoscale Model 5 and Ensemble Prediction System data are used as a main input and the flow forecasts are done for 2012 year using HEC-HMS. Hydrometeorological rule-based reservoir simulation model is accomplished with HEC-ResSim and integrated with forecasts. Since EPS based hydrological model produce a large number of equal probable scenarios, it will indicate how uncertainty spreads in the future. Thus, it will provide risk ranges in terms of spillway discharges and reservoir level for operator when it is compared with deterministic approach. The framework is fully data driven, applicable, useful to the profession and the knowledge can be transferred to other similar reservoir systems.

Integração de dados em ambiente SIG para mapeamento de favorabilidade mineral de ouro na ilha cristalina de Rivera (Uruguai)

Guias para exploração mineral são normalmente baseados em modelos conceituais de depósitos. Esses guias são, normalmente, baseados na experiência dos geólogos, em dados descritivos e em dados genéticos. Modelamentos numéricos, probabilísticos e não probabilísticos, para estimar a ocorrência de depósitos minerais é um novo procedimento que vem a cada dia aumentando sua utilização e aceitação pela comunidade geológica. Essa tese utiliza recentes metodologias para a geração de mapas de favorablidade mineral. A denominada Ilha Cristalina de Rivera, uma janela erosional da Bacia do Paraná, situada na porção norte do Uruguai, foi escolhida como estudo de caso para a aplicação das metodologias. A construção dos mapas de favorabilidade mineral foi feita com base nos seguintes tipos de dados, informações e resultados de prospecção: 1) imagens orbitais; 2) prospecção geoquimica; 3) prospecção aerogeofísica; 4) mapeamento geo-estrutural e 5) altimetria. Essas informacões foram selecionadas e processadas com base em um modelo de depósito mineral (modelo conceitual), desenvolvido com base na Mina de Ouro San Gregorio. O modelo conceitual (modelo San Gregorio), incluiu características descritivas e genéticas da Mina San Gregorio, a qual abrange os elementos característicos significativos das demais ocorrências minerais conhecidas na Ilha Cristalina de Rivera. A geração dos mapas de favorabilidade mineral envolveu a construção de um banco de dados, o processamento dos dados, e a integração dos dados. As etapas de construção e processamento dos dados, compreenderam a coleta, a seleção e o tratamento dos dados de maneira a constituírem os denominados Planos de Informação. Esses Planos de Informação foram gerados e processados organizadamente em agrupamentos, de modo a constituírem os Fatores de Integração para o mapeamento de favorabilidade mineral na Ilha Cristalina de Rivera. Os dados foram integrados por meio da utilização de duas diferentes metodologias: 1) Pesos de Evidência (dirigida pelos dados) e 2) Lógica Difusa (dirigida pelo conhecimento). Os mapas de favorabilidade mineral resultantes da implementação das duas metodologias de integração foram primeiramente analisados e interpretados de maneira individual. Após foi feita uma análise comparativa entre os resultados. As duas metodologias xxiv obtiveram sucesso em identificar, como áreas de alta favorabilidade, as áreas mineralizadas conhecidas, além de outras áreas ainda não trabalhadas. Os mapas de favorabilidade mineral resultantes das duas metodologias mostraram-se coincidentes em relação as áreas de mais alta favorabilidade. A metodologia Pesos de Evidência apresentou o mapa de favorabilidade mineral mais conservador em termos de extensão areal, porém mais otimista em termos de valores de favorabilidade em comparação aos mapas de favorabilidade mineral resultantes da implementação da metodologia Lógica Difusa. Novos alvos para exploração mineral foram identificados e deverão ser objeto de investigação em detalhe.

A Numerical method for the semilinear stochastic transport equation

Trabalho apresentado no XXXV CNMAC, Natal-RN, 2014.

Method of numerical correction of errors occasioned by delay of records during the monitoring of environmental variables of interest for animal production

As condições de ambiente térmico e aéreo, no interior de instalações para animais, alteram-se durante o dia, devido à influência do ambiente externo. Para que análises estatísticas e geoestatísticas sejam representativas, uma grande quantidade de pontos distribuídos espacialmente na área da instalação deve ser monitorada. Este trabalho propõe que a variação no tempo das variáveis ambientais de interesse para a produção animal, monitoradas no interior de instalações para animais, pode ser modelada com precisão a partir de registros discretos no tempo. O objetivo deste trabalho foi desenvolver um método numérico para corrigir as variações temporais dessas variáveis ambientais, transformando os dados para que tais observações independam do tempo gasto durante a aferição. O método proposto aproximou os valores registrados com retardos de tempo aos esperados no exato momento de interesse, caso os dados fossem medidos simultaneamente neste momento em todos os pontos distribuídos espacialmente. O modelo de correção numérica para variáveis ambientais foi validado para o parâmetro ambiental temperatura do ar, sendo que os valores corrigidos pelo método não diferiram pelo teste Tukey, a 5% de probabilidade dos valores reais registrados por meio de dataloggers.

Stability of multistep second derivative methods for integro-differential equations

The stability of multistep second derivative methods for integro-differential equations is examined through a test equation which allows for the construction of the associated characteristic polynomial and its region of stability (roots in the unit circle) at a proper parameter space. (c) 2004 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Numerical simulation of drop impact and jet buckling problems using the eXtended Pom-Pom model

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

A combination of implicit and adaptative upwind tools for the numerical solution of incompressible free surface flows

This paper is concerned with the numerical solutions of time dependent two-dimensional incompressible flows. By using the primitive variables of velocity and pressure, the Navier-Stokes and mass conservation equations are solved by a semi-implicit finite difference projection method. A new bounded higher order upwind convection scheme is employed to deal with the non-linear (advective) terms. The procedure is an adaptation of the GENSMAC (J. Comput. Phys. 1994; 110: 171-186) methodology for calculating confined and free surface fluid flows at both low and high Reynolds numbers. The calculations were performed by using the 2D version of the Freeflow simulation system (J. Comp. Visual. Science 2000; 2:199-210). In order to demonstrate the capabilities of the numerical method, various test cases are presented. These are the fully developed flow in a channel, the flow over a backward facing step, the die-swell problem, the broken dam flow, and an impinging jet onto a flat plate. The numerical results compare favourably with the experimental data and the analytical solutions. Copyright (c) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Comparison between Two Methods to Calculate the Transition Matrix of Orbit Motion

Two methods to evaluate the state transition matrix are implemented and analyzed to verify the computational cost and the accuracy of both methods. This evaluation represents one of the highest computational costs on the artificial satellite orbit determination task. The first method is an approximation of the Keplerian motion, providing an analytical solution which is then calculated numerically by solving Kepler's equation. The second one is a local numerical approximation that includes the effect of J(2). The analysis is performed comparing these two methods with a reference generated by a numerical integrator. For small intervals of time (1 to 10s) and when one needs more accuracy, it is recommended to use the second method, since the CPU time does not excessively overload the computer during the orbit determination procedure. For larger intervals of time and when one expects more stability on the calculation, it is recommended to use the first method.

Effect of Drilling Technique on the Early Integration of Plateau Root Form Endosteal Implants: An Experimental Study in Dogs

Purpose: This study tested the hypothesis that early integration of plateau root form endosseous implants is significantly affected by surgical drilling technique.Materials and Methods: Sixty-four implants were bilaterally placed in the diaphysial radius of 8 beagles and remained 2 and 4 weeks in vivo. Half the implants had an alumina-blasted/acid-etched surface and the other half a surface coated with calcium phosphate. Half the implants with the 2 surface types were drilled at 50 rpm without saline irrigation and the other half were drilled at 900 rpm under abundant irrigation. After euthanasia, the implants in bone were nondecalcified and referred for histologic analysis. Bone-to-implant contact, bone area fraction occupancy, and the distance from the tip of the plateau to pristine cortical bone were measured. Statistical analyses were performed by analysis of variance at a 95% level of significance considering implant surface, time in vivo, and drilling speed as independent variables and bone-to-implant contact, bone area fraction occupancy, and distance from the tip of the plateau to pristine cortical bone as dependent variables.Results: The results showed that both techniques led to implant integration and intimate contact between bone and the 2 implant surfaces. A significant increase in bone-to-implant contact and bone area fraction occupancy was observed as time elapsed at 2 and 4 weeks and for the calcium phosphate-coated implant surface compared with the alumina-blasted/acid-etched surface.Conclusions: Because the surgical drilling technique did not affect the early integration of plateau root form implants, the hypothesis was refuted. (C) 2011 American Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons J Oral Maxillofac Surg 69: 2158-2163, 2011

A study of a numerical solution of the steady two dimensions Navier-Stokes equations in a constricted channel problem by a compact fourth order method

We present a numerical solution for the steady 2D Navier-Stokes equations using a fourth order compact-type method. The geometry of the problem is a constricted symmetric channel, where the boundary can be varied, via a parameter, from a smooth constriction to one possessing a very sharp but smooth corner allowing us to analyse the behaviour of the errors when the solution is smooth or near singular. The set of non-linear equations is solved by the Newton method. Results have been obtained for Reynolds number up to 500. Estimates of the errors incurred have shown that the results are accurate and better than those of the corresponding second order method. (C) 2002 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Numerical approximation of the Ginzburg-Landau equation with memory effects in the dynamics of phase transitions

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Numerical simulation of Ginzburg-Landau-Langevin equations

This work is concerned with non-equilibrium phenomena, with focus on the numerical simulation of the relaxation of non-conserved order parameters described by stochastic kinetic equations known as Ginzburg-Landau-Langevin (GLL) equations. We propose methods for solving numerically these type of equations, with additive and multiplicative noises. Illustrative applications of the methods are presented for different GLL equations, with emphasis on equations incorporating memory effects.

Numerical exploration of resonant dynamics in the system of Saturnian major satellites

We numerically investigate the long-term dynamics of the Saturnian system by analyzing the Fourier spectra of ensembles of orbits taken around the current orbits of Mimas, Enceladus, Tethys, Rhea and Hyperion. We construct dynamical maps around the current position of these satellites in their respective phase spaces. The maps are the result of a great deal of numerical simulations where we adopt dense sets of initial conditions and different satellite configurations. Several structures associated to the current two-body mean-motion resonances, unstable regions associated to close approaches between the satellites, and three-body mean-motion resonances in the system, are identified in the map. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

PHYLOGENETIC STUDIES OF SOME SPECIES OF THE GENUS COFFEA .1. NUMERICAL-ANALYSIS OF FLAVONOID COMPOUNDS

Flavonoid compounds were analyzed in ripe fruit pulp of ten species of Coffea, including two cultivars of C. arabica and two of C. canephora. Three coefficients of similarity: Simple-Matching, Jaccard and Ochiai and three different clustering methods, Single Linkage, Complete Linkage and Unweighted Pair Group, Using Arithmetic Averages (UPGMA), were used to analyze the data.Jaccard and Ochiai's coefficients of association showed a more coherent result, when compared with taxonomic and hybridization studies. Inclusion of Psilanthopsis kapakata in the genus Coffea, as C. kapakata, is justified by the similarity of this species with other studied species, and clusters clearly approximate the species C. arabica and C. eugenioides. The latter is one of the possible parents of the allotetraploid species C. arabica, C. congensis is the only species whose position remains ambiguous, probably due to the fact that the plants of this species that were introduced into the Campinas collections, were hybrids and not typical of C. congensis.

A modified ant colony optimization algorithm modeled on tabu-search methods

An earlier model underlying the foraging strategy of a pachycodyla apicalis ant is modified. The proposed algorithm incorporates key features of the tabu-search method in the development of a relatively simple but robust global ant colony optimization algorithm. Numerical results are reported to validate and demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm in solving electromagnetic (EM) design problems.