Smooth Transition Patterns in the Realized Stock- Bond Correlation

Abstract: We analyze the realized stock-bond correlation. Gradual transitions between negative and positive stock-bond correlation is accommodated by the smooth transition regression (STR) model. The changes in regime are de…ned by economic and …financial transition variables. Both in sample and out-of- sample results document that STR models with multiple transition variables outperform STR models with a single transition variable. The most important transition variables are the short rate, the yield spread, and the VIX volatility index. Keywords: realized correlation; smooth transition regressions; stock-bond correlation; VIX index JEL Classifi…cations: C22; G11; G12; G17

EGFR signalling as a negative regulator of Notch1 gene transcription and function in proliferating keratinocytes and cancer.

The Notch1 gene has an important role in mammalian cell-fate decision and tumorigenesis. Upstream control mechanisms for transcription of this gene are still poorly understood. In a chemical genetics screen for small molecule activators of Notch signalling, we identified epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) as a key negative regulator of Notch1 gene expression in primary human keratinocytes, intact epidermis and skin squamous cell carcinomas (SCCs). The underlying mechanism for negative control of the Notch1 gene in human cells, as well as in a mouse model of EGFR-dependent skin carcinogenesis, involves transcriptional suppression of p53 by the EGFR effector c-Jun. Suppression of Notch signalling in cancer cells counteracts the differentiation-inducing effects of EGFR inhibitors while, at the same time, synergizing with these compounds in induction of apoptosis. Thus, our data reveal a key role of EGFR signalling in the negative regulation of Notch1 gene transcription, of potential relevance for combinatory approaches for cancer therapy.

The eta invariant and equivariant index of transversally elliptic operators

We prove a formula for the multiplicities of the index of an equivariant transversally elliptic operator on a G-manifold. The formula is a sum of integrals over blowups of the strata of the group action and also involves eta invariants of associated elliptic operators. Among the applications, we obtain an index formula for basic Dirac operators on Riemannian foliations, a problem that was open for many years.

Index theory for basic Dirac operators on Riemannian foliations

In this paper we prove a formula for the analytic index of a basic Dirac-type operator on a Riemannian foliation, solving a problem that has been open for many years. We also consider more general indices given by twisting the basic Dirac operator by a representation of the orthogonal group. The formula is a sum of integrals over blowups of the strata of the foliation and also involves eta invariants of associated elliptic operators. As a special case, a Gauss-Bonnet formula for the basic Euler characteristic is obtained using two independent proofs.

Evaluation of Three Mycobacterium leprae Monoclonal Antibodies in Mucus and Lymph Samples from Ziehl-Neelsen Stain Negative Leprosy Patients and their Household Contacts in an Indian Community

Mucus and lymph smears collected from leprosy patients (9) and their household contacts (44) in the Caño Mochuelo Indian Reservation, Casanare, Colombia, were examined with monoclonal antibodies (MoAb) against Mycobacterium leprae. The individuals studied were: 5 borderline leprosy (BB) patients, 4 with a lepromatous leprosy (LL), all of whom were undergoing epidemiological surveillance after treatment and 44 household contacts: 21 of the LL and 23 contacts of the BB patients. The MoAb were reactive with the following M. leprae antigens: 65 kd heat shock protein, A6; soluble antigen G7 and complete antigen, E11. All the samples were tested with each of the MoAb using the avidin-biotin-peroxidase technique and 3,3 diaminobenzidine as chromogen. The patients and household contacts studied were all recorded as Ziehl-Neelsen stain negative. The MoAb which showed optimal reaction was G7, this MoAb permited good visualization of the bacilli. Five patients with BB diagnosis and one with LL were positive for G7; of the BB patients' household contacts, 9 were positive for G7; 7 of the LL patients' household contacts were positive for the same MoAb. MoAb G7 allowed the detection of bacillar Mycobacterium spp. compatible structures in both patients and household contacts. G7 permited the visualization of the complete bacillus and could be used for early diagnosis and follow-up of the disease in patients.

French version of the addiction severity index (5th Edition): validity and reliability among Swiss opiate-dependent patients. French validation of the Addiction Severity Index.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to validate a French adaptation of the 5th version of the Addiction Severity Index (ASI) instrument in a Swiss sample of illicit drug users. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: The participants in the study were 54 French-speaking dependent patients, most of them with opiates as the drug of first choice. Procedure: Analyses of internal consistency (convergent and discriminant validity) and reliability, including measures of test-retest and inter-observer correlations, were conducted. RESULTS: Besides good applicability of the test, the results on composite scores (CSs) indicate comparable results to those obtained in a sample of American opiate-dependent patients. Across the seven dimensions of the ASI, Cronbach's alpha ranged from 0.42 to 0.76, test-retest correlations coefficients ranged from 0.48 to 0.98, while for CSs, inter-observer correlations ranged from 0.76 to 0.99. CONCLUSIONS: Despite several limitations, the French version of the ASI presents acceptable criteria of applicability, validity and reliability in a sample of drug-dependent patients.

Splenic palpation for the evaluation of morbidity due to schistosomiasis mansoni

This study was undertaken to determine the accuracy of splenic palpation for the diagnosis of splenomegaly, and to determine whether the frequency of individuals with a palpable spleen in an endemic area can be considered as an index of morbidity of schistosomiasis. For the clinical diagnosis of splenomegaly, two criteria have been tested: (A) presence of a palpable spleen and (B) presence of a palpable spleen whose border could be felt more than 4 cm below the costal margin. In an area of high prevalence of the disease (66.3%) 285 individuals aged 18 years or more have been submitted to abdominal ultrasonography and physical examination. Splenomegaly was defined as a splenic length greater than 120 mm by ultrasound and the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values of criterion A were 72.2%, 90.5%, 35.1% and 97.8%. The values for criterion B were 27.8%, 98%, 50% and 95%, respectively. In an non endemic area, 517 individuals were submitted to the same protocol and 22 individuals had a palpable spleen, but no patient fulfilled criterion B for splenomegaly, and only one met the ultrasonographic criterion for splenomegaly. The authors concluded that abdominal palpation is a poor method for the diagnosis of splenomegaly.

Comparison between Human Immunodeficiency Virus Positive and Negative Patients with Tuberculosis in Southern Brazil

The objective of this study is to determine the different characteristics of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) positive and negative patients treated for tuberculosis (TBC) in a tertiary hospital in Southern Brazil. We conducted a retrospective cohort study over a 5-year period, from January 1992 through December 1996. We reviewed medical charts of patients from our institution who received TBC treatment. We reviewed 167 medical charts of patients with confirmed TBC. HIV positivity was detected in 74 patients. There were statistically significant difference between HIV positive and negative patients in sex and age. HIV-infected patients showed significantly more signs of bacteremia than HIV-negative patients. Extra-pulmonary TBC was present respectively in 13 (17.6%) and 21 (22.6%) HIV positive and negative patients. There was a significant difference between chest radiograph presentation in HIV positive and negative patients. There were significantly lower hematocrit, hemoglobin, leukocyte and lymphocyte levels in HIV-positive compared to HIV-negative patients. Outcome was significantly different in the two groups with a death rate of 36.5% and 10.8% in HIV-positive and in HIV-negative patients. The difference between HIV positive and negative patients may have importance in the diagnosis, management and prognosis of patients with TBC.

Atypical Mucocutaneous Leishmaniasis Caused by Leishmania braziliensis in an Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome Patient: T-cell Responses and Remission of Lesions Associated with Antigen Immunotherapy

An atypical case of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome-associated mucocutaneous lesions due to Leishmania braziliensis is described. Many vacuolated macrophages laden with amastigote forms of the parasite were found in the lesions. Leishmanin skin test and serology for leishmaniasis were both negative. The patient was resistant to therapy with conventional drugs (antimonial and amphotericin B). Interestingly, remission of lesions was achieved after an alternative combined therapy of antimonial associated with immunotherapy (whole promastigote antigens). Peripheral blood mononuclear cells were separated and stimulated in vitro with Leishmania antigens to test the lymphoproliferative responses (LPR). Before the combined immunochemotherapy, the LPR to leishmanial antigens was negligible (stimulation index - SI=1.4). After the first course of combined therapy it became positive (SI=4.17). The antigen responding cells were predominantly T-cells (47.5%) most of them with CD8+ phenotype (33%). Very low CD4+ cells (2.2%) percentages were detected. The increased T-cell responsiveness to leishmanial antigens after combined therapy was accompanied by interferon-g (IFN-g) production as observed in the cell culture supernatants. In this patient, healing of the leishmaniasis lesions was associated with the induction of a specific T-cell immune response, characterized by the production of IFN-g and the predominance of the CD8+ phenotype among the Leishmania-reactive T-cells.

Predictive models of syncope causes in an outpatient clinic

The investigation of unexplained syncope remains a challenging clinical problem. In the present study we sought to evaluate the diagnostic value of a standardized work-up focusing on non invasive tests in patients with unexplained syncope referred to a syncope clinic, and whether certain combinations of clinical parameters are characteristic of rhythmic and reflex causes of syncope. METHODS AND RESULTS: 317 consecutive patients underwent a standardized work-up including a 12-lead ECG, physical examination, detailed history with screening for syncope-related symptoms using a structured questionnaire followed by carotid sinus massage (CSM), and head-up tilt test. Invasive testings including an electrophysiological study and implantation of a loop recorder were only performed in those with structural heart disease or traumatic syncope. Our work-up identified an etiology in 81% of the patients. Importantly, three quarters of the causes were established non invasively combining head-up tilt test, CSM and hyperventilation testing. Invasive tests yielded an additional 7% of diagnoses. Logistic analysis identified age and number of significant prodromes as the only predictive factors of rhythmic syncope. The same two factors, in addition to the duration of the ECG P-wave, were also predictive of vasovagal and psychogenic syncope. These factors, optimally combined in predictive models, showed a high negative and a modest positive predictive value. CONCLUSION: A standardized work-up focusing on non invasive tests allows to establish more than three quarters of syncope causes. Predictive models based on simple clinical parameters may help to distinguish between rhythmic and other causes of syncope

Sexually transmitted diseases in homosexual and bisexual males from a cohort of human immunodeficiency virus negative volunteers (Project Horizonte), Belo Horizonte, Brazil

Sexually transmitted diseases (STD) are very frequent in the whole world. Males who do not use a condom during their sexual relations are at great risk. We report cases of STD during six months of observation, among homosexual/bisexual males who participate in the Project Horizonte. There were 16 cases of genital warts, 6 cases of human immunodeficiency virus infection, 24 cases of unspecific urethritis, 28 cases of herpes simplex virus infection, 30 cases of syphilis, 58 cases of gonorrhea and 84 cases of pediculosis. We concluded that a condom must be used in all sexual relations and new counseling techniques are needed, to avoid this situation.

Expression of mosquito active toxin genes by a Colombian native strain of the gram-negative bacterium Asticcacaulis excentricus

Mosquito control with biological insecticides, such as Bacillus sp. toxins, has been used widely in many countries. However, rapid sedimentation away from the mosquito larvae feeding zone causes a low residual effect. In order to overcome this problem, it has been proposed to clone the Bacillus toxin genes in aquatic bacteria which are able to live in the upper part of the water column. Two strains of Asticcacaulis excentricus were chosen to introduce the B. sphaericus binary toxin gene and B. thuringiensis subsp. medellin cry11Bb gene cloned in suitable vectors. In feeding experiments with these aquatic bacteria, it was shown that Culex quinquefasciatus, Aedes aegypti, and Anopheles albimanus larvae were able to survive on a diet based on this wild bacterium. A. excentricus recombinant strains were able to express both genes, but the recombinant strain expressing the B. sphaericus binary toxin was toxic to mosquito larvae. Crude protease A. excentricus extracts did not degrade the Cry11Bb toxin. The flotability studies indicated that the recombinant A. excentricus strains remained in the upper part of the water column longer than the wild type Bacillus strains.

Anti-basal ganglia antibodies and Tourette's syndrome: a voxel-based morphometry and diffusion tensor imaging study in an adult population.

Anti-basal ganglia antibodies (ABGAs) have been suggested to be a hallmark of autoimmunity in Gilles de la Tourette's syndrome (GTS), possibly related to prior exposure to streptococcal infection. In order to detect whether the presence of ABGAs was associated with subtle structural changes in GTS, whole-brain analysis using independent sets of T(1) and diffusion tensor imaging MRI-based methods were performed on 22 adults with GTS with (n = 9) and without (n = 13) detectable ABGAs in the serum. Voxel-based morphometry analysis failed to detect any significant difference in grey matter density between ABGA-positive and ABGA-negative groups in caudate nuclei, putamina, thalami and frontal lobes. These results suggest that ABGA synthesis is not related to structural changes in grey and white matter (detectable with these methods) within frontostriatal circuits.

Assessing multiple sclerosis activity: is the in vitro production of tumor necrosis factor-alpha, interleukins 2, 6, 4, and 10, and immunoglobulin G of value?

Tumor necrosis factor (TNF) alpha, interleukins (IL) 2, 4, 6, and 10, and IgG oligoclonal bands (IgG OB) in vitro production was assessed, after whole-blood stimulation with lipopolysaccharide or concanavalin A, in 61 patients presenting with relapsing-remitting, relapsing-progressive, or chronic progressive multiple sclerosis. Multiple sclerosis patients were receiving no treatment or azathioprine (AZA), cyclosporin, cyclophosphamide, subcutaneous interferon (IFN) beta 1 a, or corticosteroids (CST). Statistical correlations significantly showed that: (a) AZA lowers TNF-alpha (P = 0.002) and increases IL-4 production (P = 0.0024), and IFN-beta 1 a increases TNF-alpha and decreases IL-4 levels; (b) CST has a negative effect on TNF-alpha, IL-6, and IL-4 synthesis; and (c) AZA, IFN-beta 1 a, and CST diminish IgG OB synthesis (P = 0.001). Although our study of the dynamics of TNF-alpha, IL-2, IL-4, IL-6, and IL-10 in vitro production generally found no statistically significant correlations (partly explained by the limited number of values in the various groups), IL-6 was shown to drop during the periods surrounding relapse (P = 0.05) in the absence of treatment, while TNF-alpha (P = 0.04) and IL-6 (P < 0.05) dropped before exacerbation in the presence of AZA. In vitro production of TNF-alpha was closely and positively correlated with that of IL-6, independently of clinical features. The enhanced production of IL-10 detected before or at relapse with AZA and IFN-beta 1 a (trends) may interfere with initiation of the immune reaction and with the development of new CNS lesions. Some discrepancies with previously published results stress the difficulties in studying the state of stimulation of different populations of leukocytes by using a variety of in vitro stimuli and in establishing a correlation between mRNA studies and the amount of final or active protein produced.