Decision-theoretic designs for dose-finding clinical trials with multiple outcomes

A decision-theoretic framework is proposed for designing sequential dose-finding trials with multiple outcomes. The optimal strategy is solvable theoretically via backward induction. However, for dose-finding studies involving k doses, the computational complexity is the same as the bandit problem with k-dependent arms, which is computationally prohibitive. We therefore provide two computationally compromised strategies, which is of practical interest as the computational complexity is greatly reduced: one is closely related to the continual reassessment method (CRM), and the other improves CRM and approximates to the optimal strategy better. In particular, we present the framework for phase I/II trials with multiple outcomes. Applications to a pediatric HIV trial and a cancer chemotherapy trial are given to illustrate the proposed approach. Simulation results for the two trials show that the computationally compromised strategy can perform well and appear to be ethical for allocating patients. The proposed framework can provide better approximation to the optimal strategy if more extensive computing is available.

A Bayesian decision approach for sample size determination in phase II trials

Stallard (1998, Biometrics 54, 279-294) recently used Bayesian decision theory for sample-size determination in phase II trials. His design maximizes the expected financial gains in the development of a new treatment. However, it results in a very high probability (0.65) of recommending an ineffective treatment for phase III testing. On the other hand, the expected gain using his design is more than 10 times that of a design that tightly controls the false positive error (Thall and Simon, 1994, Biometrics 50, 337-349). Stallard's design maximizes the expected gain per phase II trial, but it does not maximize the rate of gain or total gain for a fixed length of time because the rate of gain depends on the proportion: of treatments forwarding to the phase III study. We suggest maximizing the rate of gain, and the resulting optimal one-stage design becomes twice as efficient as Stallard's one-stage design. Furthermore, the new design has a probability of only 0.12 of passing an ineffective treatment to phase III study.

Isotonic designs for phase I trials

The purpose of a phase I trial in cancer is to determine the level (dose) of the treatment under study that has an acceptable level of adverse effects. Although substantial progress has recently been made in this area using parametric approaches, the method that is widely used is based on treating small cohorts of patients at escalating doses until the frequency of toxicities seen at a dose exceeds a predefined tolerable toxicity rate. This method is popular because of its simplicity and freedom from parametric assumptions. In this payer, we consider cases in which it is undesirable to assume a parametric dose-toxicity relationship. We propose a simple model-free approach by modifying the method that is in common use. The approach assumes toxicity is nondecreasing with dose and fits an isotonic regression to accumulated data. At any point in a trial, the dose given is that with estimated toxicity deemed closest to the maximum tolerable toxicity. Simulations indicate that this approach performs substantially better than the commonly used method and it compares favorably with other phase I designs.

Analysis of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 drug resistance in children receiving nucleoside analogue reverse-transcriptase inhibitors plus nevirapine, nelfinavir, or ritonavir (Pediatric AIDS Clinical Trials Group 377)

In Pediatric AIDS Clinical Trials Group 377, antiretroviral therapy-experienced children were randomized to 4 treatment arms that included different combinations of stavudine, lamivudine (3TC), nevirapine (Nvp), nelfinavir (Nfv), and ritonavir (Rtv). Previous treatment with zidovudine (Zdv), didanosine (ddI), or zalcitabine (ddC) was acceptable. Drug resistance ((R)) mutations were assessed before study treatment (baseline) and at virologic failure. Zdv(R), ddI(R), and ddC(R) mutations were detected frequently at baseline but were not associated with virologic failure. Children with drug resistance mutations at baseline had greater reductions in virus load over time than did children who did not. Nvp(R) and 3TC(R) mutations were detected frequently at virologic failure, and Nvp(R) mutations were more common among children receiving 3-drug versus 4-drug Nvp-containing regimens. Children who were maintained on their study regimen after virologic failure accumulated additional Nvp(R) and 3TC(R) mutations plus Rtv(R) and Nfv(R) mutations. However, Rtv(R) and Nfv(R) mutations were detected at unexpectedly low rates.

Sequential allocation in clinical trials

Suppose two treatments with binary responses are available for patients with some disease and that each patient will receive one of the two treatments. In this paper we consider the interests of patients both within and outside a trial using a Bayesian bandit approach and conclude that equal allocation is not appropriate for either group of patients. It is suggested that Gittins indices should be used (using an approach called dynamic discounting by choosing the discount rate based on the number of future patients in the trial) if the disease is rare, and the least failures rule if the disease is common. Some analytical and simulation results are provided.

Gittins indices and constrained allocation in clinical trials

We explore the use of Gittins indices to search for near optimality in sequential clinical trials. Some adaptive allocation rules are proposed to achieve the following two objectives as far as possible: (i) to reduce the expected successes lost, (ii) to minimize the error probability at the end. Simulation results indicate the merits of the rules based on Gittins indices for small trial sizes. The rules are generalized to the case when neither of the response densities is known. Asymptotic optimality is derived for the constrained rules. A simple allocation rule is recommended for one-stage models. The simulation results indicate that it works better than both equal allocation and Bather's randomized allocation. We conclude with a discussion of possible further developments.

Short-term nutritional supplementation during management of pulmonary exacerbations in cystic fibosis: A controlled study, including effects of protein turnover

Effects of nutritional supplements on minimizing weight loss and abnormalities of protein turnover during pulmonary exacerbations in cystic fibrosis (CF) were studied by controlled trial. Patients received pulmonary therapy and either standard diet (n = 10) or adjunctive enteral supplements (n = 12). Initial protein turnover, measured by [15N]glycine kinetics, showed alterations of protein synthesis (P Syn) and catabolism (P Cat), which correlated with the degree of underweight, and negligible net protein deposition (P Dep). With treatment both groups had significant increases in mean body weight and forced expiratory volume in 1 s, expressed as percent predicted value for height (FEV1) by 3 wk, but a significant correlation between initial underweight and subsequent weight gain was observed only in supplemented patients. Mean P Syn and P Dep increased significantly (p < 0.001) only in the supplemented group. Pulmonary exacerbations in CF have important adverse effects on body-protein metabolism, similar to changes in protein-energy malnutrition and infection. These effects are reversed by short-term nutritional support. Strategic nutritional intervention should thus be considered in management, especially in malnourished patients.

Exercise improves quality of life in ADT-treated prostate cancer: Systematic review of RCTs

Men receiving androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) for prostate cancer (PCa) are likely to develop metabolic conditions such as diabetes, cardiovascular disease, abdominal obesity and osteoporosis. Other treatment-related side effects adversely influence quality of life (QoL) including vasomotor distress, depression, anxiety, mood swings, poor sleep quality and compromised sexual function. The objective of this study was to systematically review the nature and effects of dietary and exercise interventions on QoL, androgen deprivation symptoms and metabolic risk factors in men with PCa undergoing ADT. An electronic search of CINAHL, CENTRAL, Medline, PsychINFO and reference lists was performed to identify peer-reviewed articles published between January 2004 and December, 2014 in English. Eligible study designs included randomised controlled trials with pre- and post-intervention data. Data extraction and assessment of methodological quality with the Cochrane approach was conducted by two independent reviewers. Seven exercise studies were identified. Exercise significantly improved QoL, but showed no effect on metabolic risk factors (weight, waist circumference, lean or fat mass, blood pressure, lipid profile). Two dietary studies were identified, both of which tested soy supplements. Soy supplementation did not improve any outcomes. No dietary counselling studies were identified. No studies evaluated androgen-deficiency symptoms (libido, erectile function, sleep quality, mood swings, depression, anxiety, bone mineral density). Evidence from RCTs indicates that exercise enhances health- and disease-specific QoL in men with PCa undergoing ADT. Further studies are required to evaluate the effect of exercise and dietary interventions on QoL, androgen deprivation symptoms and metabolic risk factors in this cohort.

Post-industrial Intervention : An Activity-Theoretical Expedition Tracing the Proximal Development of Forms of Conducting Interventions

Ei saatavilla

The accuracy of varietal selection using factor analytic models for multi-environment plant breeding trials

Modeling of cultivar x trial effects for multienvironment trials (METs) within a mixed model framework is now common practice in many plant breeding programs. The factor analytic (FA) model is a parsimonious form used to approximate the fully unstructured form of the genetic variance-covariance matrix in the model for MET data. In this study, we demonstrate that the FA model is generally the model of best fit across a range of data sets taken from early generation trials in a breeding program. In addition, we demonstrate the superiority of the FA model in achieving the most common aim of METs, namely the selection of superior genotypes. Selection is achieved using best linear unbiased predictions (BLUPs) of cultivar effects at each environment, considered either individually or as a weighted average across environments. In practice, empirical BLUPs (E-BLUPs) of cultivar effects must be used instead of BLUPs since variance parameters in the model must be estimated rather than assumed known. While the optimal properties of minimum mean squared error of prediction (MSEP) and maximum correlation between true and predicted effects possessed by BLUPs do not hold for E-BLUPs, a simulation study shows that E-BLUPs perform well in terms of MSEP.

Soliciting additional concerns in the primary care consultation and the utility of a brief communication intervention to aid solicitation: A qualitative study

Objective To investigate the perspectives of general practitioners (GPs) on the practice of soliciting additional concerns (ACs) and the acceptability and utility of two brief interventions (prompts) designed to aid the solicitation. Methods Eighteen GPs participating in a feasibility randomised controlled trial were interviewed. Interviews were semi-structured and audio-recorded. Data were analysed using a Framework Approach. Results Participants perceived eliciting ACs as important for: reducing the need for multiple visits, identifying serious illness early, and increasing patient and GP satisfaction. GPs found the prompts easy to use and some continued their use after the study had ended to aid time management. Others noted similarities between the intervention and their usual practice. Nevertheless, soliciting ACs in every consultation was not unanimously supported. Conclusion The prompts were acceptable to GPs within a trial context, but there was disagreement as to whether ACs should be solicited routinely. Some GPs considered the intervention to aid their prioritisation efficiency within consultations. Practice implications Some GPs will find prompts which encourage ACs to be solicited early in the consultation enable them to better organise priorities and manage time-limited consultations more effectively.

Feasibility of an in-patient exercise intervention for children undergoing haematopoietic stem cell transplant

With improving survival rates following HSCT in children, QOL and management of short- and long-term effects need to be considered. Exercise may help mitigate fatigue and declines in fitness and strength. The aims of this study were to assess the feasibility of an inpatient exercise intervention for children undergoing HSCT and observe the changes in physical and psychological health. Fourteen patients were recruited, mean age 10 yr. A 6MWT, isometric upper and lower body strength, balance, fatigue, and QOL were assessed prior to Tx and six wk post-Tx. A supervised exercise program was offered five days per week during the inpatient period and feasibility assessed through uptake rate. The study had 100% program completion and 60% uptake rate of exercise sessions. The mean (±s.d.) weekly activity was 117.5 (±79.3) minutes. Younger children performed significantly more minutes of exercise than adolescents. At reassessment, strength and fatigue were stabilized while aerobic fitness and balance decreased. QOL revealed a non-statistical trend towards improvement. No exercise-related adverse events were reported. A supervised inpatient exercise program is safe and feasible, with potential physiological and psychosocial benefits.

Assessment of permeable covers for odour reduction in piggery effluent ponds. 1. Laboratory-scale trials

A variety of materials were trialed as supported permeable covers using a series of laboratory-scale anaerobic digesters. Efficacy of cover performance was assessed in terms of impact on odour and greenhouse gas emission rate, and the characteristics of anaerobic liquor. Data were collected over a 12-month period. Initially the covers reduced the rate of odour emission 40-100 times relative to uncovered digesters. After about three months, this decreased to about a threefold reduction in odour emission rate, which was maintained over the remainder of the trial. The covers did not alter methane emission rates. Carbon dioxide emission rates varied according to cover type. Performance of the covers was attributed to the physical characteristics of the cover materials and changes in liquor composition. The reductions in odour emission indicate that these covers offer a cost-effective method for odour control.

Assessment of permeable covers for odour reduction in piggery effluent ponds. 2. Field-scale trials

The efficacy of supported covers was investigated under field conditions using a series of prototypes deployed on an anaerobic pond treating typical piggery waste. Research focused on identifying effective cover support materials and deployment methods, quantifying odour reduction, and estimating the life expectancy of various permeable cover materials. Over a 10-month period, median odour emission rates were five to eight times lower from supported straw cover surfaces and a non-woven, spun fibre polypropylene weed control material than from the adjacent uncovered pond surface. While the straw covers visually appeared to degrade very rapidly, they continued to reduce odour emissions effectively. The polypropylene cover appeared to offer advantages from the perspectives of cost, reduced maintenance and ease of manufacture.