Optimal investment under stochastic volatility and power type utility function

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 37F21, 70H20, 37L40, 37C40, 91G80, 93E20.

Megmenthető-e az euróövezet? (Can the eurozone be saved?)

Az euró válságának szélesebb globális összefüggései vannak, mind a kiváltó okait, mind a nemzetközi pénzügyi rendszer működésének hiányosságait illetően. Az európai monetáris integráció szilárd reálgazdasági alapokon nyugszik. Az euró teljesítménye mind az árstabilitás, mind az árfolyamok ingadozása tekintetében megfelelőnek tekinthető. Az euróválság szuverénadósság-válság, és leginkább a zóna egyes (déli) országait érinti. Az euróválság okai többrétűek: ezek között az eurózóna hibás konstrukcióját, téves koncepcionális feltételezéseit, a politikai kompromisszumokkal folyamatosan megnyomorított működését említhetjük leginkább. A közös pénz önmagában nem oka a válságnak és nem is bűvös ellenszer. A hibás gazdaságpolitikáért belül ugyanúgy bűnhődni kell, mint kívül. Görögország, vagy Írország elsősorban nem azért került válságba, mert tagjai az eurózónának, hanem mert hibás gazdaságpolitikát folytattak. Nem zárható ki az eurózóna szétesése, de kicsi az esélye. / === / The euro crisis has broad global connections, both in terms of deficiencies of the international monetary system, and of the crisis of the global financial markets. The European monetary integration is based on strong real-economic foundations. The performance of the euro has been satisfactory both in terms of price and exchange rate stability. The present crisis is a sovereign debt crisis, and it is concentrated mainly on some Southern members. The causes of the crisis are manifold: wrong institutional and policy structures, mistaken conceptual assumptions, and the distortion of its operation by continuous political compromises. The contradictions between common monetary policy and the national fiscal policies, the failure of disciplining role of the markets, the weakness of control of national fiscal policies, the dangers of "one size fits all" monetary policy, the failure of finding the proper national policy mixes, particularly in terms of income and structural policies, and the underestimation of social and cultural differences, can be particularly stressed. The common monetary policy failed to secure the necessary equilibrium among liquidity, stability and growth. Greece and Ireland got in crisis not because they are members of the euro zone, but because of their mistaken economic policies. The collapse of the euro zone cannot be excluded, but the chances of it are limited.

Monetary efficacy in the community level

Hypothesis of the paper is that the monetary room for manoeuvre in the European Community is determined by the institutional and strategic characteristics of the ECB, moreover the financial market environment composed by multi-state community. The methodology of the paper is built on the evaluation of the decision making and strategy of ECB as institutional aspect, and the monetary transmission in national financial markets. In policy evaluation, the monetary targeting is surveyed through HICP, monetary base, central bank rates, exchange rates and treatment of price impacts. The transmission is examined through analysis of structure of the member state’s financial markets.

Challenges the finance profession has been facing following the 2008-2009. A multi-country research

In the successful strategic management of the modern companies each function plays their specific role. While today’s businesses in many ways are different from their ancestors, the key fundamentals are derived from the same roots. Their main purpose of existence is to serve the needs of their shareholders and stakeholders by creating value (Pike et al., 1993). To achieve this effectively and efficiently the various functions need to work in close cooperation with each other. The global crisis, starting in 2008, proved that volatility is higher for the financial markets and the ordinary businesses that have been anticipated before. As the recession started as a financial crisis many people started to blame – amongst others – banks and financial institutions for excessive risk taking and taking short profits ahead of long term sustainable growth. Accordingly the lost confidence in the financial institutions has taken a toll on the reputation of other Finance professionals such as accountants, book keepers, treasury, tax people and others. The finance function’s strategic importance is linked to its ability to help interpreting the business performance and provide transparency. In order to restore the trust the finance profession is now facing one of the biggest challenges of its history, the need to reinvent itself. This paper presents the findings of a recent international research conducted in the United Kingdom, France, Hungary and Poland interviewing 169 executives of the business sector plus the review of 237 job descriptions of finance professionals in order to understand the challenges of the modern finance function. The findings of the study could provide relevant answers and help to overcome a very current problem that Finance is facing today, how to rebuild reputation and to stay a trusted partner and enabler for long term business strategy.

Internal Capital, External Knowledge, and Random Draws: Three Drivers of Organizational Structure

This dissertation explores the complex interactions between organizational structure and the environment. In Chapter 1, I investigate the effect of financial development on the formation of European corporate groups. Since cross-country regressions are hard to interpret in a causal sense, we exploit exogenous industry measures to investigate a specific channel through which financial development may affect group affiliation: internal capital markets. Using a comprehensive firm-level dataset on European corporate groups in 15 countries, we find that countries

with less developed financial markets have a higher percentage of group affiliates in more capital intensive industries. This relationship is more pronounced for young and small firms and for affiliates of large and diversified groups. Our findings are consistent with the view that internal capital markets may, under some conditions, be more efficient than prevailing external markets, and that this may drive group affiliation even in developed economies. In Chapter 2, I bridge current streams of innovation research to explore the interplay between R&D, external knowledge, and organizational structure–three elements of a firm’s innovation strategy which we argue should logically be studied together. Using within-firm patent assignment patterns,

we develop a novel measure of structure for a large sample of American firms. We find that centralized firms invest more in research and patent more per R&D dollar than decentralized firms. Both types access technology via mergers and acquisitions, but their acquisitions differ in terms of frequency, size, and i\ntegration. Consistent with our framework, their sources of value creation differ: while centralized firms derive more value from internal R&D, decentralized firms rely more on external knowledge. We discuss how these findings should stimulate more integrative work on theories of innovation. In Chapter 3, I use novel data on 1,265 newly-public firms to show that innovative firms exposed to environments with lower M&A activity just after their initial public offering (IPO) adapt by engaging in fewer technological acquisitions and

more internal research. However, this adaptive response becomes inertial shortly after IPO and persists well into maturity. This study advances our understanding of how the environment shapes heterogeneity and capabilities through its impact on firm structure. I discuss how my results can help bridge inertial versus adaptive perspectives in the study of organizations, by

documenting an instance when the two interact.

International Capital Flows and Monetary Policy Spillovers

This dissertation examines the drivers and implications of international capital flows. The overarching motivation is the observation that countries not at the centre of global financial markets are subject to considerable spillovers from centre countries, notably from their monetary policy. I present new empirical evidence on the determinants of the observed patterns of international capital flows and monetary policy spillovers, and study their effect on both financial markets and the real economy. In Chapter 2 I provide evidence on the determinants of a puzzling negative correlation observed between productivity growth and net capital inflows to developing and emerging market economies (EMEs) since 1980. By disaggregating net capital inflows into their gross components, I show that this negative correlation is explained by capital outflows related to purchases of very liquid assets from the fastest growing countries. My results suggest a desire for international portfolio diversification in liquid assets by fast growing countries is driving much of the original puzzle. In the reminder of my dissertation I pivot to study the foreign characteristics that drive international capital flows and monetary policy spillovers, with a particular focus on the role of unconventional monetary policy in the United States (U.S.). In Chapter 3 I show that a significant portion of the heterogeneity in EMEs' asset price adjustment following the quantitative easing operations by the Federal Reserve (the Fed) during 2008-2014 can be explained by the degree of bilateral capital market frictions between these countries and the U.S. This is true even after accounting for capital controls, exchange rate regimes, and domestic monetary policies. Chapter 4, co-authored with Michal Ksawery Popiel, studies unconventional monetary policy in a small open economy, looking specifically at the case of Canada since the global financial crisis. We quantify the effect Canadian unconventional monetary policy shocks had on the real economy, while carefully controlling for and quantifying spillovers from U.S. unconventional monetary policy. Our results indicate that the Bank of Canada's unconventional monetary policy increased Canadian output significantly from 2009-2010, but that spillovers from the Fed's policy were even more important for increasing Canadian output after 2008.

Oil Market Modelling: A Comparative Analysis of Fundamental and Latent Factor Approaches

We formally compare fundamental factor and latent factor approaches to oil price modelling. Fundamental modelling has a long history in seeking to understand oil price movements, while latent factor modelling has a more recent and limited history, but has gained popularity in other financial markets. The two approaches, though competing, have not formally been compared as to effectiveness. For a range of short- medium- and long-dated WTI oil futures we test a recently proposed five-factor fundamental model and a Principal Component Analysis latent factor model. Our findings demonstrate that there is no discernible difference between the two techniques in a dynamic setting. We conclude that this infers some advantages in adopting the latent factor approach due to the difficulty in determining a well specified fundamental model.

An Environment for Rapid Derivatives Design and Experimentation

In the highly competitive world of modern finance, new derivatives are continually required to take advantage of changes in financial markets, and to hedge businesses against new risks. The research described in this paper aims to accelerate the development and pricing of new derivatives in two different ways. Firstly, new derivatives can be specified mathematically within a general framework, enabling new mathematical formulae to be specified rather than just new parameter settings. This Generic Pricing Engine (GPE) is expressively powerful enough to specify a wide range of stand¬ard pricing engines. Secondly, the associated price simulation using the Monte Carlo method is accelerated using GPU or multicore hardware. The parallel implementation (in OpenCL) is automatically derived from the mathematical description of the derivative. As a test, for a Basket Option Pricing Engine (BOPE) generated using the GPE, on the largest problem size, an NVidia GPU runs the generated pricing engine at 45 times the speed of a sequential, specific hand-coded implementation of the same BOPE. Thus a user can more rapidly devise, simulate and experiment with new derivatives without actual programming.

Analysis of the Bovespa Futures and Spot Indexes With High Frequency Data. Chinese Business Review

Data from the World Federation of Exchanges show that Brazil’s Sao Paulo stock exchange is one of the largest worldwide in terms of market value. Thus, the objective of this study is to obtain univariate and bivariate forecasting models based on intraday data from the futures and spot markets of the BOVESPA index. The interest is to verify if there exist arbitrage opportunities in Brazilian financial market. To this end, three econometric forecasting models were built: ARFIMA, vector autoregressive (VAR), and vector error correction (VEC). Furthermore, it presents the results of a Granger causality test for the aforementioned series. This type of study shows that it is important to identify arbitrage opportunities in financial markets and, in particular, in the application of these models on data of this nature. In terms of the forecasts made with these models, VEC showed better results. The causality test shows that futures BOVESPA index Granger causes spot BOVESPA index. This result may indicate arbitrage opportunities in Brazil.

Futures Shock: Are Greedy Brokers Ruining The Economy?

[Excerpt] In a recent public relations document, the New York Stock Exchange defines its mission statement as to: “Support the capital-raising and asset management process by providing the highest quality and most cost-effective, self-regulated marketplace for the trading of financial instruments.” The common thread that runs through this and similar statements made by organized financial markets from Frankfurt to Tokyo is that they hold as their primary goals to help companies raise capital and to provide a liquid and efficient aftermarket for those securities.

A cultura e as características qualitativas da informação financeira: evidência empírica a partir do relato de entidades cotadas na União Europeia

Mestrado em Contabilidade

Sobre o contágio nos mercados bolsistas internacionais: evidência de nove países

Mestrado em Contabilidade e Análise Financeira

Contratos futuros sobre o petróleo: um estudo sobre a assimetria na volatilidade

Mestrado em Contabilidade e Análise Financeira

Searching for return: How Google search engine query data can beat the market

Throughout the last years technologic improvements have enabled internet users to analyze and retrieve data regarding Internet searches. In several fields of study this data has been used. Some authors have been using search engine query data to forecast economic variables, to detect influenza areas or to demonstrate that it is possible to capture some patterns in stock markets indexes. In this paper one investment strategy is presented using Google Trends’ weekly query data from major global stock market indexes’ constituents. The results suggest that it is indeed possible to achieve higher Info Sharpe ratios, especially for the major European stock market indexes in comparison to those provided by a buy-and-hold strategy for the period considered.

Factores económicos do risco sistemático nas carteiras de investimento: o caso português

Dissertação de mest. em Ciências Económicas e Empresariais, Unidade de Ciências Económicas e Empresariais, Univ. do Algarve, 1996