Case study - Herdade Vale da Rosa – The fruits of passion: The role of a positive entrepreneur vision in the success of an organization from a depressed sector and region

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Elements of algebraic geometry and the positive theory of partially commutative groups

The first main result of the paper is a criterion for a partially commutative group G to be a domain. It allows us to reduce the study of algebraic sets over G to the study of irreducible algebraic sets, and reduce the elementary theory of G (of a coordinate group over G) to the elementary theories of the direct factors of G (to the elementary theory of coordinate groups of irreducible algebraic sets). Then we establish normal forms for quantifier-free formulas over a non-abelian directly indecomposable partially commutative group H. Analogously to the case of free groups, we introduce the notion of a generalised equation and prove that the positive theory of H has quantifier elimination and that arbitrary first-order formulas lift from H to H * F, where F is a free group of finite rank. As a consequence, the positive theory of an arbitrary partially commutative group is decidable.

Withholding antimalarials in febrile children who have a negative result for a rapid diagnostic test.

BACKGROUND: The availability of a rapid diagnostic test for malaria (RDTm) allows accurate diagnosis at all levels of health facilities. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the safety of withholding antimalarials in febrile children who have a negative test result. METHODS: We conducted a prospective 2-arm longitudinal study in areas of Tanzania that are moderately and highly endemic for malaria. Children with a history of fever were managed routinely by resident clinicians of 2 health facilities, except that no antimalarials were prescribed if the RDTm result was negative. Children were followed up at home on day 7. The main outcome was the occurrence of complications in children with negative RDTm results; children with positive RDTm results were followed up for the same outcomes for indirect comparison. RESULTS: One thousand children (median age, 24 months) were recruited. Six hundred three children (60%) had a negative RDTm result. Five hundred seventy-three (97%) of these children were cured on day 7. Forty-nine (8%) of the children with negative RDTm results spontaneously visited the dispensary before day 7, compared with 10 (3%) of the children with positive RDTm results. All children who had negative initial results had negative results again when they were tested either at spontaneous attendance or on day 7 because they were not cured clinically, except for 3 who gave positive results on days 2, 4, and 7 respectively but who did not experience any complication. Four children who had negative initial results were admitted to the hospital subsequently, all with negative results for malaria tests upon admission. Two of them died, of causes other than malaria. CONCLUSIONS: Not giving antimalarial drugs in febrile children who had a negative RDTm result was safe, even in an area highly endemic for malaria. Our study provides evidence for treatment recommendations based on parasitological diagnosis in children <5 years old.

Positive Torsional Strain Causes the Formation of a Four-Way Junction at Replication Forks.

Research by L. Postow, C. Ullsperger, R.W. Keller, C. Bustamante, A.V. Vologodskii, and N.R. Cozzarelli, J. Biol. Chem. 2001, 276, 2790 Condensation and commentary by Alexander Bucka and Andrzej Stasiak, Universite ´ de Lausanne, Switzerland Purpose of the Study To demonstrate that positive torsional strain generated during DNA replication can lead to reversals of replication forks and, consequently can result in the formation of four-way DNA junctions

A critical role for the T cell receptor alpha-chain connecting peptide domain in positive selection of CD1-independent NKT cells.

Natural killer T (NKT) cells are a subset of mature alpha beta TCR(+) cells that co-express NK lineage markers. Whereas most NKT cells express a canonical Valpha14/Vbeta8.2 TCR and are selected by CD1d, a minority of NKT cells express a diverse TCR repertoire and develop independently of CD1d. Little is known about the selection requirements of CD1d-independent NKT cells. We show here that NKT cells develop in RAG-deficient mice expressing an MHC class II-restricted transgenic TCR (Valpha2/Vbeta8.1) but only under conditions that lead to negative selection of conventional T cells. Moreover development of NKT cells in these mice is absolutely dependent upon an intact TCR alpha-chain connecting peptide domain, which is required for positive selection of conventional T cells via recruitment of the ERK signaling pathway. Collectively our data demonstrate that NKT cells can develop as a result of high avidity TCR/MHC class II interactions and suggest that common signaling pathways are involved in the positive selection of CD1d-independent NKT cells and conventional T cells.

Improving the performance of positive selection inference by filtering unreliable alignment regions.

Errors in the inferred multiple sequence alignment may lead to false prediction of positive selection. Recently, methods for detecting unreliable alignment regions were developed and were shown to accurately identify incorrectly aligned regions. While removing unreliable alignment regions is expected to increase the accuracy of positive selection inference, such filtering may also significantly decrease the power of the test, as positively selected regions are fast evolving, and those same regions are often those that are difficult to align. Here, we used realistic simulations that mimic sequence evolution of HIV-1 genes to test the hypothesis that the performance of positive selection inference using codon models can be improved by removing unreliable alignment regions. Our study shows that the benefit of removing unreliable regions exceeds the loss of power due to the removal of some of the true positively selected sites.

Stool sample storage conditions for the preservation of Giardia intestinalis DNA

Stool is chemically complex and the extraction of DNA from stool samples is extremely difficult. Haemoglobin breakdown products, such as bilirubin, bile acids and mineral ions, that are present in the stool samples, can inhibit DNA amplification and cause molecular assays to produce false-negative results. Therefore, stool storage conditions are highly important for the diagnosis of intestinal parasites and other microorganisms through molecular approaches. In the current study, stool samples that were positive for Giardia intestinalis were collected from five different patients. Each sample was stored using one out of six different storage conditions [room temperature (RT), +4ºC, -20ºC, 70% alcohol, 10% formaldehyde or 2.5% potassium dichromate] for DNA extraction procedures at one, two, three and four weeks. A modified QIAamp Stool Mini Kit procedure was used to isolate the DNA from stored samples. After DNA isolation, polymerase chain reaction (PCR) amplification was performed using primers that target the β-giardin gene. A G. intestinalis-specific 384 bp band was obtained from all of the cyst-containing stool samples that were stored at RT, +4ºC and -20ºC and in 70% alcohol and 2.5% potassium dichromate; however, this band was not produced by samples that had been stored in 10% formaldehyde. Moreover, for the stool samples containing trophozoites, the same G. intestinalis-specific band was only obtained from the samples that were stored in 2.5% potassium dichromate for up to one month. As a result, it appears evident that the most suitable storage condition for stool samples to permit the isolation of G. intestinalis DNA is in 2.5% potassium dichromate; under these conditions, stool samples may be stored for one month.

False phylogenies on wood mice due to cryptic cytochrome-b pseudogene.

The phylogeny and phylogeography of the Old World wood mice (subgenus Sylvaemus, genus Apodemus, Muridae) are well-documented. Nevertheless, the distributions of species, such as A. fulvipectus and A. ponticus remain dubious, as well as their phylogenetic relationships with A. sylvaticus. We analysed samples of Apodemus spp. across Europe using the mitochondrial cytochrome-b gene (cyt-b) and compared the DNA and amino-acid compositions of previously published sequences. The main result stemming from this study is the presence of a well-differentiated lineage of Sylvaemus including samples of various species (A. sylvaticus, A. fulvipectus, A. ponticus) from distant locations, which were revealed to be nuclear copies of the mitochondrial cyt-b. The presence of this cryptic pseudogene in published sequences is supported by different pathways. This has led to important errors in previous molecular trees and hence to partial misinterpretations in the phylogeny of Apodemus.

Rapid detection of MRSA in screening specimens during a hospital outbreak.

Objectives: To compare the results of rapid PCR screening for MRSA using the GeneXpert system with those of cultures in an outbreak setting. Methods: GeneXpert was used for screening MRSA in nose, throat, groin, and other clinical samples during a 6-month period. Samples were performed using a double-swab transystem. When >1 sample was found positive in a screening set, all second swabs of the set were analysed by culture. Results: From June to October 2009, 7568 rapid tests were performed, among which 432 (5.7%) were positive (nose: 149/2090, 7.1%; throat: 98/2078, 4.7%; groin: 152/2080, 7.3%; urine: 14/1090, 1.3%; wounds: 18/150, 12%; and others:1/27, 3.7%), and 84 (1.1%) were invalid. A total of 1517 samples were analyzed by both rapid PCR and culture. Rapid tests had a sensitivity of 0.896 compared to cultures, a specificity of 0.769, a PPV of 0.763, and a NPV of 0.899. The rapid test was found to be less sensitive in throat samples (0.81) than in nose or inguinal samples (0.93 for both). In 32/192 (16%) patients a positive rapid PCR result was not confirmed by culture, despite several subsequent screening samples in some patients. Cycle threshold (Ct) for SCCmec of these PCR positive reactions were all >30. Conclusions: GeneXpert MRSA was found to be suitable for the rapid detection in nose, inguinal, and throat samples, however with a lower sensitivity in the later. Negative cultures in 16% of our PCR-positive patients raised the question of false positivity or higher sensitivity of GeneXpert. Further work is needed to investigate these cases.

Positive feedback in the transition from sexual reproduction to parthenogenesis.

Understanding how new phenotypes evolve is challenging because intermediate stages in transitions from ancestral to derived phenotypes often remain elusive. Here we describe and evaluate a new mechanism facilitating the transition from sexual reproduction to parthenogenesis. In many sexually reproducing species, a small proportion of unfertilized eggs can hatch spontaneously ('tychoparthenogenesis') and develop into females. Using an analytical model, we show that if females are mate-limited, tychoparthenogenesis can result in the loss of males through a positive feedback mechanism whereby tychoparthenogenesis generates female-biased sex ratios and increasing mate limitation. As a result, the strength of selection for tychoparthenogenesis increases in concert with the proportion of tychoparthenogenetic offspring in the sexual population. We then tested the hypothesis that mate limitation selects for tychoparthenogenesis and generates female-biased sex ratios, using data from natural populations of sexually reproducing Timema stick insects. Across 41 populations, both the tychoparthenogenesis rates and the proportions of females increased exponentially as the density of individuals decreased, consistent with the idea that low densities of individuals result in mate limitation and selection for reproductive insurance through tychoparthenogenesis. Our model and data from Timema populations provide evidence for a simple mechanism through which parthenogenesis can evolve rapidly in a sexual population.

Simple estimation of incident HIV infection rates in notification cohorts based on window periods of algorithms for evaluation of line-immunoassay result patterns.

BACKGROUND: Tests for recent infections (TRIs) are important for HIV surveillance. We have shown that a patient's antibody pattern in a confirmatory line immunoassay (Inno-Lia) also yields information on time since infection. We have published algorithms which, with a certain sensitivity and specificity, distinguish between incident (< = 12 months) and older infection. In order to use these algorithms like other TRIs, i.e., based on their windows, we now determined their window periods. METHODS: We classified Inno-Lia results of 527 treatment-naïve patients with HIV-1 infection < = 12 months according to incidence by 25 algorithms. The time after which all infections were ruled older, i.e. the algorithm's window, was determined by linear regression of the proportion ruled incident in dependence of time since infection. Window-based incident infection rates (IIR) were determined utilizing the relationship 'Prevalence = Incidence x Duration' in four annual cohorts of HIV-1 notifications. Results were compared to performance-based IIR also derived from Inno-Lia results, but utilizing the relationship 'incident = true incident + false incident' and also to the IIR derived from the BED incidence assay. RESULTS: Window periods varied between 45.8 and 130.1 days and correlated well with the algorithms' diagnostic sensitivity (R(2) = 0.962; P<0.0001). Among the 25 algorithms, the mean window-based IIR among the 748 notifications of 2005/06 was 0.457 compared to 0.453 obtained for performance-based IIR with a model not correcting for selection bias. Evaluation of BED results using a window of 153 days yielded an IIR of 0.669. Window-based IIR and performance-based IIR increased by 22.4% and respectively 30.6% in 2008, while 2009 and 2010 showed a return to baseline for both methods. CONCLUSIONS: IIR estimations by window- and performance-based evaluations of Inno-Lia algorithm results were similar and can be used together to assess IIR changes between annual HIV notification cohorts.

Vemurafenib in patients with BRAF(V600) mutation-positive melanoma with symptomatic brain metastases: final results of an open-label pilot study.

BACKGROUND & AIM: Brain metastases are frequent in patients with metastatic melanoma, indicating poor prognosis. We investigated the BRAF kinase inhibitor vemurafenib in patients with advanced melanoma with symptomatic brain metastases. METHODS: This open-label trial assessed vemurafenib (960mg twice a day) in patients with BRAF(V600) mutation-positive metastatic melanoma with non-resectable, previously treated brain metastases. The primary end-point was safety. Secondary end-points included best overall response rate, and progression-free and overall survival. RESULTS: Twenty-four patients received vemurafenib for a median treatment duration of 3.8 (0.1-11.3) months. The majority of discontinuations were due to disease progression (n=22). Twenty-three of 24 patients reported at least one adverse event (AE). Grade 3 AEs were reported in four (17%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.7-37.4%) patients and included cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma in four patients. Median progression-free survival was 3.9 (95% CI, 3.0-5.5) months, and median survival was 5.3 (95% CI, 3.9-6.6) months. An overall partial response (PR) at both intracranial and extracranial sites was achieved in 10 of 24 (42%; 95% CI, 22.1-63.4) evaluable patients, with stable disease in nine (38%; 95% CI, 18.8-59.4) patients. Of 19 patients with measurable intracranial disease, seven (37%) achieved >30% intracranial tumour regression, and three (16%; 95% CI, 3.4-39.6%) achieved a confirmed PR. Other signs of improvement included reduced need for corticosteroids and enhanced performance status. CONCLUSIONS: Vemurafenib can be safely used in patients with advanced symptomatic melanoma that has metastasised to the brain and can result in meaningful tumour regression.

Transcriptional profiling of Gram-positive Arthrobacter in the phyllosphere: induction of pollutant degradation genes by natural plant phenolic compounds.

Arthrobacter chlorophenolicus A6 is a Gram-positive, 4-chlorophenol-degrading soil bacterium that was recently shown to be an effective colonizer of plant leaf surfaces. The genetic basis for this phyllosphere competency is unknown. In this paper, we describe the genome-wide expression profile of A.chlorophenolicus on leaves of common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris) compared with growth on agar surfaces. In phyllosphere-grown cells, we found elevated expression of several genes known to contribute to epiphytic fitness, for example those involved in nutrient acquisition, attachment, stress response and horizontal gene transfer. A surprising result was the leaf-induced expression of a subset of the so-called cph genes for the degradation of 4-chlorophenol. This subset encodes the conversion of the phenolic compound hydroquinone to 3-oxoadipate, and was shown to be induced not only by 4-chlorophenol but also hydroquinone, its glycosylated derivative arbutin, and phenol. Small amounts of hydroquinone, but not arbutin or phenol, were detected in leaf surface washes of P.vulgaris by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Our findings illustrate the utility of genomics approaches for exploration and improved understanding of a microbial habitat. Also, they highlight the potential for phyllosphere-based priming of bacteria to stimulate pollutant degradation, which holds promise for the application of phylloremediation.

Positive contrast visualization of iron oxide-labeled stem cells using inversion-recovery with ON-resonant water suppression (IRON)

In proton magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) metallic substances lead to magnetic field distortions that often result in signal voids in the adjacent anatomic structures. Thus, metallic objects and superparamagnetic iron oxide (SPIO)-labeled cells appear as hypointense artifacts that obscure the underlying anatomy. The ability to illuminate these structures with positive contrast would enhance noninvasive MR tracking of cellular therapeutics. Therefore, an MRI methodology that selectively highlights areas of metallic objects has been developed. Inversion-recovery with ON-resonant water suppression (IRON) employs inversion of the magnetization in conjunction with a spectrally-selective on-resonant saturation prepulse. If imaging is performed after these prepulses, positive signal is obtained from off-resonant protons in close proximity to the metallic objects. The first successful use of IRON to produce positive contrast in areas of metallic spheres and SPIO-labeled stem cells in vitro and in vivo is presented.

Changing landscapes of Switzerland: assessing effects of historic and future land uses and land covers on the occurrence of selected butterfly species

Summary Landscapes are continuously changing. Natural forces of change such as heavy rainfall and fires can exert lasting influences on their physical form. However, changes related to human activities have often shaped landscapes more distinctly. In Western Europe, especially modern agricultural practices and the expanse of overbuilt land have left their marks in the landscapes since the middle of the 20th century. In the recent years men realised that mare and more changes that were formerly attributed to natural forces might indirectly be the result of their own action. Perhaps the most striking landscape change indirectly driven by human activity we can witness in these days is the large withdrawal of Alpine glaciers. Together with the landscapes also habitats of animal and plant species have undergone vast and sometimes rapid changes that have been hold responsible for the ongoing loss of biodiversity. Thereby, still little knowledge is available about probable effects of the rate of landscape change on species persistence and disappearance. Therefore, the development and speed of land use/land cover in the Swiss communes between the 1950s and 1990s were reconstructed using 10 parameters from agriculture and housing censuses, and were further correlated with changes in butterfly species occurrences. Cluster analyses were used to detect spatial patterns of change on broad spatial scales. Thereby, clusters of communes showing similar changes or transformation rates were identified for single decades and put into a temporally dynamic sequence. The obtained picture on the changes showed a prevalent replacement of non-intensive agriculture by intensive practices, a strong spreading of urban communes around city centres, and transitions towards larger farm sizes in the mountainous areas. Increasing transformation rates toward more intensive agricultural managements were especially found until the 1970s, whereas afterwards the trends were commonly negative. However, transformation rates representing the development of residential buildings showed positive courses at any time. The analyses concerning the butterfly species showed that grassland species reacted sensitively to the density of livestock in the communes. This might indicate the augmented use of dry grasslands as cattle pastures that show altered plant species compositions. Furthermore, these species also decreased in communes where farms with an agricultural area >5ha have disappeared. The species of the wetland habitats were favoured in communes with smaller fractions of agricultural areas and lower densities of large farms (>10ha) but did not show any correlation to transformation rates. It was concluded from these analyses that transformation rates might influence species disappearance to a certain extent but that states of the environmental predictors might generally outweigh the importance of the corresponding rates. Information on the current distribution of species is evident for nature conservation. Planning authorities that define priority areas for species protection or examine and authorise construction projects need to know about the spatial distribution of species. Hence, models that simulate the potential spatial distribution of species have become important decision tools. The underlying statistical analyses such as the widely used generalised linear models (GLM) often rely on binary species presence-absence data. However, often only species presence data have been colleted, especially for vagrant, rare or cryptic species such as butterflies or reptiles. Modellers have thus introduced randomly selected absence data to design distribution models. Yet, selecting false absence data might bias the model results. Therefore, we investigated several strategies to select more reliable absence data to model the distribution of butterfly species based on historical distribution data. The results showed that better models were obtained when historical data from longer time periods were considered. Furthermore, model performance was additionally increased when long-term data of species that show similar habitat requirements as the modelled species were used. This successful methodological approach was further applied to assess consequences of future landscape changes on the occurrence of butterfly species inhabiting dry grasslands or wetlands. These habitat types have been subjected to strong deterioration in the recent decades, what makes their protection a future mission. Four spatially explicit scenarios that described (i) ongoing land use changes as observed between 1985 and 1997, (ii) liberalised agricultural markets, and (iii) slightly and (iv) strongly lowered agricultural production provided probable directions of landscape change. Current species-environment relationships were derived from a statistical model and used to predict future occurrence probabilities in six major biogeographical regions in Switzerland, comprising the Jura Mountains, the Plateau, the Northern and Southern Alps, as well as the Western and Eastern Central Alps. The main results were that dry grasslands species profited from lowered agricultural production, whereas overgrowth of open areas in the liberalisation scenario might impair species occurrence. The wetland species mostly responded with decreases in their occurrence probabilities in the scenarios, due to a loss of their preferred habitat. Further analyses about factors currently influencing species occurrences confirmed anthropogenic causes such as urbanisation, abandonment of open land, and agricultural intensification. Hence, landscape planning should pay more attention to these forces in areas currently inhabited by these butterfly species to enable sustainable species persistence. In this thesis historical data were intensively used to reconstruct past developments and to make them useful for current investigations. Yet, the availability of historical data and the analyses on broader spatial scales has often limited the explanatory power of the conducted analyses. Meaningful descriptors of former habitat characteristics and abundant species distribution data are generally sparse, especially for fine scale analyses. However, this situation can be ameliorated by broadening the extent of the study site and the used grain size, as was done in this thesis by considering the whole of Switzerland with its communes. Nevertheless, current monitoring projects and data recording techniques are promising data sources that might allow more detailed analyses about effects of long-term species reactions on landscape changes in the near future. This work, however, also showed the value of historical species distribution data as for example their potential to locate still unknown species occurrences. The results might therefore contribute to further research activities that investigate current and future species distributions considering the immense richness of historical distribution data. Résumé Les paysages changent continuellement. Des farces naturelles comme des pluies violentes ou des feux peuvent avoir une influence durable sur la forme du paysage. Cependant, les changements attribués aux activités humaines ont souvent modelé les paysages plus profondément. Depuis les années 1950 surtout, les pratiques agricoles modernes ou l'expansion des surfaces d'habitat et d'infrastructure ont caractérisé le développement du paysage en Europe de l'Ouest. Ces dernières années, l'homme a commencé à réaliser que beaucoup de changements «naturels » pourraient indirectement résulter de ses propres activités. Le changement de paysage le plus apparent dont nous sommes témoins de nos jours est probablement l'immense retraite des glaciers alpins. Avec les paysages, les habitats des animaux et des plantes ont aussi été exposés à des changements vastes et quelquefois rapides, tenus pour coresponsable de la continuelle diminution de la biodiversité. Cependant, nous savons peu des effets probables de la rapidité des changements du paysage sur la persistance et la disparition des espèces. Le développement et la rapidité du changement de l'utilisation et de la couverture du sol dans les communes suisses entre les années 50 et 90 ont donc été reconstruits au moyen de 10 variables issues des recensements agricoles et résidentiels et ont été corrélés avec des changements de présence des papillons diurnes. Des analyses de groupes (Cluster analyses) ont été utilisées pour détecter des arrangements spatiaux de changements à l'échelle de la Suisse. Des communes avec des changements ou rapidités comparables ont été délimitées pour des décennies séparées et ont été placées en séquence temporelle, en rendrent une certaine dynamique du changement. Les résultats ont montré un remplacement répandu d'une agriculture extensive des pratiques intensives, une forte expansion des faubourgs urbains autour des grandes cités et des transitions vers de plus grandes surfaces d'exploitation dans les Alpes. Dans le cas des exploitations agricoles, des taux de changement croissants ont été observés jusqu'aux années 70, alors que la tendance a généralement été inversée dans les années suivantes. Par contre, la vitesse de construction des nouvelles maisons a montré des courbes positives pendant les 50 années. Les analyses sur la réaction des papillons diurnes ont montré que les espèces des prairies sèches supportaient une grande densité de bétail. Il est possible que dans ces communes beaucoup des prairies sèches aient été fertilisées et utilisées comme pâturages, qui ont une autre composition floristique. De plus, les espèces ont diminué dans les communes caractérisées par une rapide perte des fermes avec une surface cultivable supérieure à 5 ha. Les espèces des marais ont été favorisées dans des communes avec peu de surface cultivable et peu de grandes fermes, mais n'ont pas réagi aux taux de changement. Il en a donc été conclu que la rapidité des changements pourrait expliquer les disparitions d'espèces dans certains cas, mais que les variables prédictives qui expriment des états pourraient être des descripteurs plus importants. Des informations sur la distribution récente des espèces sont importantes par rapport aux mesures pour la conservation de la nature. Pour des autorités occupées à définir des zones de protection prioritaires ou à autoriser des projets de construction, ces informations sont indispensables. Les modèles de distribution spatiale d'espèces sont donc devenus des moyens de décision importants. Les méthodes statistiques courantes comme les modèles linéaires généralisés (GLM) demandent des données de présence et d'absence des espèces. Cependant, souvent seules les données de présence sont disponibles, surtout pour les animaux migrants, rares ou cryptiques comme des papillons ou des reptiles. C'est pourquoi certains modélisateurs ont choisi des absences au hasard, avec le risque d'influencer le résultat en choisissant des fausses absences. Nous avons établi plusieurs stratégies, basées sur des données de distribution historique des papillons diurnes, pour sélectionner des absences plus fiables. Les résultats ont démontré que de meilleurs modèles pouvaient être obtenus lorsque les données proviennent des périodes de temps plus longues. En plus, la performance des modèles a pu être augmentée en considérant des données de distribution à long terme d'espèces qui occupent des habitats similaires à ceux de l'espèce cible. Vu le succès de cette stratégie, elle a été utilisée pour évaluer les effets potentiels des changements de paysage futurs sur la distribution des papillons des prairies sèches et marais, deux habitats qui ont souffert de graves détériorations. Quatre scénarios spatialement explicites, décrivant (i) l'extrapolation des changements de l'utilisation de sol tels qu'observés entre 1985 et 1997, (ii) la libéralisation des marchés agricoles, et une production agricole (iii) légèrement amoindrie et (iv) fortement diminuée, ont été utilisés pour générer des directions de changement probables. Les relations actuelles entre la distribution des espèces et l'environnement ont été déterminées par le biais des modèles statistiques et ont été utilisées pour calculer des probabilités de présence selon les scénarios dans six régions biogéographiques majeures de la Suisse, comportant le Jura, le Plateau, les Alpes du Nord, du Sud, centrales orientales et centrales occidentales. Les résultats principaux ont montré que les espèces des prairies sèches pourraient profiter d'une diminution de la production agricole, mais qu'elles pourraient aussi disparaître à cause de l'embroussaillement des terres ouvertes dû à la libéralisation des marchés agricoles. La probabilité de présence des espèces de marais a décrû à cause d'une perte générale des habitats favorables. De plus, les analyses ont confirmé que des causes humaines comme l'urbanisation, l'abandon des terres ouvertes et l'intensification de l'agriculture affectent actuellement ces espèces. Ainsi ces forces devraient être mieux prises en compte lors de planifications paysagères, pour que ces papillons diurnes puissent survivre dans leurs habitats actuels. Dans ce travail de thèse, des données historiques ont été intensivement utilisées pour reconstruire des développements anciens et pour les rendre utiles à des recherches contemporaines. Cependant, la disponibilité des données historiques et les analyses à grande échelle ont souvent limité le pouvoir explicatif des analyses. Des descripteurs pertinents pour caractériser les habitats anciens et des données suffisantes sur la distribution des espèces sont généralement rares, spécialement pour des analyses à des échelles fores. Cette situation peut être améliorée en augmentant l'étendue du site d'étude et la résolution, comme il a été fait dans cette thèse en considérant toute la Suisse avec ses communes. Cependant, les récents projets de surveillance et les techniques de collecte de données sont des sources prometteuses, qui pourraient permettre des analyses plus détaillés sur les réactions à long terme des espèces aux changements de paysage dans le futur. Ce travail a aussi montré la valeur des anciennes données de distribution, par exemple leur potentiel pour aider à localiser des' présences d'espèces encore inconnues. Les résultats peuvent contribuer à des activités de recherche à venir, qui étudieraient les distributions récentes ou futures d'espèces en considérant l'immense richesse des données de distribution historiques.