Combining expert opinions in prior elicitation

We consider the problem of combining opinions from different experts in an explicitly model-based way to construct a valid subjective prior in a Bayesian statistical approach. We propose a generic approach by considering a hierarchical model accounting for various sources of variation as well as accounting for potential dependence between experts. We apply this approach to two problems. The first problem deals with a food risk assessment problem involving modelling dose-response for Listeria monocytogenes contamination of mice. Two hierarchical levels of variation are considered (between and within experts) with a complex mathematical situation due to the use of an indirect probit regression. The second concerns the time taken by PhD students to submit their thesis in a particular school. It illustrates a complex situation where three hierarchical levels of variation are modelled but with a simpler underlying probability distribution (log-Normal).

Setting aside default judgment - whether applicant must file affidavit providing direct evidence of defence 'on the merits'

In Prus-Butwilowicz v Moxey [2002] QDC 166 the court examined the question whether an applicant for an order setting aside a default judgment was required to file an affidavit providing direct evidence of a defence 'on the merits' and whether the position had changed under the Uniform Civil Procedure Rules 1999 (Qld).

Mastery motivation in children with intellectual disability : Is there evidence for a Down syndrome behavioural phenotype?

The main purpose of the current study was to provide empirical evidence to support or refute assumptions of phenotypic deficits in motivation for children with Down syndrome. Children with moderate intellectual disability associated with etiologies other than Down syndrome were recruited in an extension of a previous study that involved children with Down syndrome and typically developing children. The participants were 29 children with moderate intellectual disability and 33 children with Down syndrome who were matched on mental age to 33 typically developing children, aged 3 to 8 years. Mastery motivation was assessed on task measures of curiosity, preference for challenge, and persistence, as well as parental reports. There were no significant group differences on the mastery motivation tasks. Parental ratings of mastery motivation differed, with typically developing children generally being rated more highly than each of the disability groups. The view that motivational deficits are part of the Down syndrome behavioural phenotype was not supported.

Feasibility of using technology to disseminate evidence to rural nurses and improve patient outcomes

Background: Rural African American women receive less frequent mammography screening and die of breast cancer at a higher rate than is seen in the general population. To overcome this disparity, it is necessary to assist rural providers in their efforts to influence women to obtain screening. Method: This study examined the feasibility of using distance education to disseminate knowledge about timely and appropriate mammography screening to rural nurses, using patient outcome data to evaluate the effectiveness of this intervention. Results: Overall, there was a decline in referrals and mammography screening, but the intervention group centers showed a smaller decline after the educational intervention than did the control group. Conclusion: The findings show the effect of dissemination of information and the feasibility of using patient outcome data for educational evaluation. Neighboring academic health centers and nursing schools should include in their mission the provision of educational programs for relatively isolated rural nurses.

Measuring the biases in self-reported disability status : Evidence from aggregate data

Self-reported health status measures are generally used to analyse Social Security Disability Insurance's (SSDI) application and award decisions as well as the relationship between its generosity and labour force participation. Due to endogeneity and measurement error, the use of self-reported health and disability indicators as explanatory variables in economic models is problematic. We employ county-level aggregate data, instrumental variables and spatial econometric techniques to analyse the determinants of variation in SSDI rates and explicitly account for the endogeneity and measurement error of the self-reported disability measure. Two surprising results are found. First, it is shown that measurement error is the dominating source of the bias and that the main source of measurement error is sampling error. Second, results suggest that there may be synergies for applying for SSDI when the disabled population is larger. © 2011 Taylor & Francis.

Bike share's impact on car use : evidence from the United States, Great Britain, and Australia

There are currently more than 700 cities operating bike share programs. Purported benefits of bike share include flexible mobility, physical activity, reduced congestion, emissions and fuel use. Implicit or explicit in the calculation of program benefits are assumptions regarding the modes of travel replaced by bike share journeys. This paper examines the degree to which car trips are replaced by bike share, through an examination of survey and trip data from bike share programs in Melbourne, Brisbane, Washington, D.C., London, and Minneapolis/St. Paul. A secondary and unique component of this analysis examines motor vehicle support services required for bike share fleet rebalancing and maintenance. These two components are then combined to estimate bike share’s overall contribution to changes in vehicle kilometers traveled. The results indicate an estimated reduction in motor vehicle use due to bike share of approx. 90,000 km per annum in Melbourne and Minneapolis/St. Paul and 243,291 km for Washington, D.C. London’s bike share program however recorded an additional 766,341 km in motor vehicle use. This was largely due to a low car mode substitution rate and substantial truck use for rebalancing of bicycles. As bike share programs mature, evaluation of their effectiveness in reducing car use may become increasingly important. Researchers can adapt the analytical approach proposed in this paper to assist in the evaluation of current and future bike share programs.

Predicting stock market returns and volatility with investor sentiment : evidence from eight developed countries

We test the predictive ability of investor sentiment on the return and volatility at the aggregate market level in the U.S., four largest European countries and three Asia-Pacific countries. We find that in the U.S., France and Italy periods of high consumer confidence levels are followed by low market returns. In Japan both the level and the change in consumer confidence boost the market return in the next month. Further, shifts in sentiment significantly move conditional volatility in most of the countries, and in Italy such impacts lead to an increase in returns by 4.7% in the next month.

Electron transport across magnetic field in low-temperature plasmas : an alternative approach for obtaining evidence of Bohm mechanism

A comparative study involving both experimental and numerical investigations was made to resolve a long-standing problem of understanding electron conductivity mechanism across magnetic field in low-temperature plasmas. We have calculated the plasma parameters from experimentally obtained electric field distribution, and then made a 'back' comparison with the distributions of electron energy and plasma density obtained in the experiment. This approach significantly reduces an influence of the assumption about particular phenomenology of the electron conductivity in plasma. The results of the experiment and calculations made by this technique have showed that the classical conductivity is not capable of providing realistic total current and electron energy, whereas the phenomenological anomalous Bohm mobility has demonstrated a very good agreement with the experiment. These results provide an evidence in favor of the Bohm conductivity, thus making it possible to clarify this pressing long-living question about the main driving mechanism responsible for the electron transport in low-temperature plasmas.

Genetic and phenotypic evidence supports evolutionary divergence of the American flamingo (Phoenicopterus ruber) population in the Galapagos islands

The Galapagos archipelago is characterized by a high degree of endemism across many taxa, linked to the archpelago's oceanic origin and distance from other colonizing land masses. A population of ~ 500 American Flamingos (Phoenicopterus ruber) resides in Galapagos, which is thought to share an historical origin with the American Flamingo currently found in the Caribbean region. Genetic and phenotypic parameters in American Flamingos from Galapagos and from the Caribbean were investigated. Microsatellite and microchondrial DNA markers data showed that the American Flamingo population in Galapagos differs genetically from that in the Caribbean. American Flamingos in Galapagos form a clade which differs by a single common nucleotide substitution from American Flamingos in the Caribbean. The genetic differentiation is also evident from nuclear DNA in that microsatellite data reveal a number of private alleles for the American Flamingo in Galapagos. Analysis of skeletal measurements showed that American Flamingos in Galapagos are smaller than those in the Caribbean primarily due to shorter tarsus length, and differences in body shape sexual dimorphism. American Flamingo eggs from Galapagos have smaller linear dimensions and volumes than those from the Caribbean. The findings are consistent with reproductive isolation of American Flamingo population in Galapagos.

Myeloma-induced alloreactive T cells arising in myeloma-infiltrated bones include double-positive CD8+CD4+ T cells : evidence from myeloma-bearing mouse model

The graft-versus-myeloma (GVM) effect represents a powerful form of immune attack exerted by alloreactive T cells against multiple myeloma cells, which leads to clinical responses in multiple myeloma transplant recipients. Whether myeloma cells are themselves able to induce alloreactive T cells capable of the GVM effect is not defined. Using adoptive transfer of T naive cells into myeloma-bearing mice (established by transplantation of human RPMI8226-TGL myeloma cells into CD122(+) cell-depleted NOD/SCID hosts), we found that myeloma cells induced alloreactive T cells that suppressed myeloma growth and prolonged survival of T cell recipients. Myeloma-induced alloreactive T cells arising in the myeloma-infiltrated bones exerted cytotoxic activity against resident myeloma cells, but limited activity against control myeloma cells obtained from myeloma-bearing mice that did not receive T naive cells. These myeloma-induced alloreactive T cells were derived through multiple CD8(+) T cell divisions and enriched in double-positive (DP) T cells coexpressing the CD8alphaalpha and CD4 coreceptors. MHC class I expression on myeloma cells and contact with T cells were required for CD8(+) T cell divisions and DP-T cell development. DP-T cells present in myeloma-infiltrated bones contained a higher proportion of cells expressing cytotoxic mediators IFN-gamma and/or perforin compared with single-positive CD8(+) T cells, acquired the capacity to degranulate as measured by CD107 expression, and contributed to an elevated perforin level seen in the myeloma-infiltrated bones. These observations suggest that myeloma-induced alloreactive T cells arising in myeloma-infiltrated bones are enriched with DP-T cells equipped with cytotoxic effector functions that are likely to be involved in the GVM effect.

A pilot study to assess the appropriateness of prescribing from a collaborative pharmacist prescribing study in a surgical pre admission clinic

Background Current evidence to support non-medical prescribing is predominantly qualitative, with little evaluation of appropriateness. This study aims to evaluate the appropriateness of prescribing, and significance of omissions, from a doctor pharmacist collaborative prescribing model in an elective surgery pre admission clinic (PAC). Method A modified version of the Medication Appropriate Index (MAI) was developed, piloted and subsequently used by an expert panel, comprised of a surgeon, anaesthetist, clinical pharmacologist, pharmacist, resident medical officer (RMO) and clinical nurse. The tool was used to rate the appropriateness of prescribing of medications, and the significance of omissions in a 5% sample (N=19) of the total cohort from a randomised, controlled two arm trial of doctor-pharmacist collaborative prescribing. Results When reviewer assessments were combined, 32 out of 294 (10.9%) medications assessed for appropriateness in the control arm were classed as inappropriate, compared to 13 of 266 (4.9%) in the intervention arm. Out of 89 regular medications in the control arm, 25 (28%) were omitted from the medication charts, compared to 1 out of 55 (2%) in the intervention arm (p<0.001, fishers exact) On average, 52% of omissions in the control arm were judged to have potential for patient harm or ward inconvenience. Conclusion For the appropriateness of prescribing, overall results were similar between arms, as judged by individual panel members. Medication charts in the control arm contained significantly more omissions than in the intervention arm, a number of which were rated by the panel members as having the potential for patient harm or ward inconvenience.

School libraries, teacher-librarians and student outcomes : presenting and using the evidence

Evidence is required to ensure the future viability of school libraries and teacher-librarians. Education policy makers and school principals need detailed, reliable evidence to support informed decision-making about school library resourcing and staffing. Teacher-librarians need evidence to guide their professional practice and demonstrate their contribution to student learning outcomes. This review, which arises from recent Australian research (Hughes, 2013), collates international and Australian research about the impacts of school libraries and teacher librarians. It strengthens the evidence base, and recommends how this evidence can be best used to advance school libraries and teacher-librarians and enhance student learning.

Protect or deter? : the expert panel on asylum seekers in Australia

In June 2012 Prime Minister Gillard appointed an Expert Panel on Asylum Seekers to provide advice on policy options 'to prevent asylum seekers rising their lives on dangerous boat journeys to Australia'. This article examines the establishment of that Committee against the backdrop of an increasing number of boat arrivals, of deaths at sea and the failure of Government policy responses to prevent them. It examines the recommendations of the Expert Panel and considers the punitive outcome of some of these recommendations including the 'no advantage' test. It evaluates Kevin Rudd's Regional Resettlement Arrangement with Papua New Guinea and concludes that Australian and regional initiatives need to focus on protection of asylum seekers, not deterrence or avoidance of international obligations

How do preservice teacher education students move from novice to expert assessors?

Despite the acknowledged importance of assessment in education, there has been minimal research into the preparation of preservice teachers for the important role of involving preservice teachers in marking, grading, moderating and providing feedback on student work. This article reports on a pilot project in which preservice teachers participated in an ongoing peer assessment and social moderation process in a dedicated course on assessment. The purpose of the project was to investigate specific ways in which key assessment processes can be effectively taught to preservice teachers. The research involved 96 preservice teachers who completed a Likert scale survey and free text responses to set questions. The results indicated that while preservice teachers valued the process, continual opportunities to learn the nature and purpose of essential assessment practices related to marking, grading, moderating and providing feedback are necessary to graduate competent and work-ready assessors.

Sewer performance reporting : factors that influence blockages

Managing sewer blockages represents a significant operational challenge for water utilities. In Australia, company-level blockage rates are used to compare the effectiveness of the management strategies of different utilities. Anecdotal evidence suggests this may not be a fair basis for comparison because blockages are influenced by a range of factors beyond management control and that vary from company to company. This issue was investigated as part of a broader research effort on sewer blockage management undertaken in conjunction with the Water Services Association of Australia (WSAA) and its members. A Web-based survey was used to collate expert opinion on factors that influence blockage rate. The identified factors were then investigated in an exploratory analysis of blockage-related data provided by two participating utilities, supported by literature reviews. The results indicate that blockage rate is influenced by a range of factors, including asset attributes, climatic conditions, water consumption, and soil type. Since these factors vary from utility to utility, this research supports the assertion that company-level blockage rate is not in itself an appropriate metric for comparing management effectiveness.