El sector agropecuario en la región de Los Lagos y el paradigma "Chile potencia alimentaria" : Desafíos para la política agraria nacional

La reestructuración del modelo económico en Chile a mediados de los setenta impactó a todos los sectores productivos y el sector agropecuario no fue una excepción. Se iniciaba así el comienzo de la "Era agroexportadora", que fomentaba aquellas orientaciones productivas con claras ventajas competitivas en los mercados internacionales. El paradigma agrícola chileno se ha caracterizado por funcionar sobre la base de salarios bajos, disponibilidad de mano de obra y tipo de cambio favorable. En 2006, y en este escenario, se ha implementado la política pública denominada "Chile Potencia Alimentaria 2020", que buscar reforzar la fórmula anterior. Esta iniciativa considera estrategias de crecimiento que invisibilizan la estructura bimodal agraria presente en el país. A lo anterior se suma el agravante de que territorios (como la Región de Los Lagos en el sur de Chile) con orientaciones productivas tradicionales (ganaderas específicamente) presentan posiciones manifiestamente vulnerables, especialmente de aquellos grupos de productores que se caracterizan por funcionar con racionalidades distintas de la empresarial.

Crisis cambiaria en Argentina

El análisis de la articulación entre el proceso de valorización exitosa de capital y la tendencia a la desvalorización de las mercancías se aplica a una de las manifestaciones de la crisis argentina: la devaluación del peso. Se estudia la relación entre la determinación del tipo de cambio y la valorización del capital. Se discuten las tendencias concretas de la economía argentina en la década de 1990 y se muestra cómo la devaluación de 2001-2002 fue producto necesario del propio proceso de valorización exitosa del periodo anterior (1991-1998) y su crisis.

Crisis cambiaria en Argentina

El análisis de la articulación entre el proceso de valorización exitosa de capital y la tendencia a la desvalorización de las mercancías se aplica a una de las manifestaciones de la crisis argentina: la devaluación del peso. Se estudia la relación entre la determinación del tipo de cambio y la valorización del capital. Se discuten las tendencias concretas de la economía argentina en la década de 1990 y se muestra cómo la devaluación de 2001-2002 fue producto necesario del propio proceso de valorización exitosa del periodo anterior (1991-1998) y su crisis.

Sobre la homogeinización de la presión fiscal en la agricultura pampeana tras la devaluación

La década del '90 marcó una fuerte aceleración del proceso de concentración económica de la producción agrícola pampeana, evolución que continuaría tras la devaluación de 2002. En la determinación del mismo convergen distintos factores: las economías de escala, el manejo cambiario, la evolución tecnológica (entre otros). En este trabajo se estudia uno de estos condicionantes: la política impositiva del Estado Nacional. Se analizan los tributos que gravan al agro y sus alícuotas, diferenciando según la escala y perfil tecnológico del productor, calculando un indicador de la presión fiscal (peso de los tributos sobre el ingreso bruto de la explotación). Se concluye que en el nuevo siglo se produjo una nivelación importante en cuanto a los montos impositivos requeridos por el Estado a los distintos tipos de agentes, lo que minimizó la posibilidad que tiene éste a partir de aquella herramienta de modelar una trama social más desconcentrada

El sector agropecuario en la región de Los Lagos y el paradigma "Chile potencia alimentaria" : Desafíos para la política agraria nacional

La reestructuración del modelo económico en Chile a mediados de los setenta impactó a todos los sectores productivos y el sector agropecuario no fue una excepción. Se iniciaba así el comienzo de la "Era agroexportadora", que fomentaba aquellas orientaciones productivas con claras ventajas competitivas en los mercados internacionales. El paradigma agrícola chileno se ha caracterizado por funcionar sobre la base de salarios bajos, disponibilidad de mano de obra y tipo de cambio favorable. En 2006, y en este escenario, se ha implementado la política pública denominada "Chile Potencia Alimentaria 2020", que buscar reforzar la fórmula anterior. Esta iniciativa considera estrategias de crecimiento que invisibilizan la estructura bimodal agraria presente en el país. A lo anterior se suma el agravante de que territorios (como la Región de Los Lagos en el sur de Chile) con orientaciones productivas tradicionales (ganaderas específicamente) presentan posiciones manifiestamente vulnerables, especialmente de aquellos grupos de productores que se caracterizan por funcionar con racionalidades distintas de la empresarial.

Crisis in Japan and the Way Out: A Counterargument to Pessimistic Views

This paper focuses on a review of the present state of, and outlook for the Japanese economy. The paper is composed of three parts. The first describes the interrelation between the crisis-ridden East Asian economies and Japan. I argue that Japan did not cause the Asian currency crisis. The second part describes the current state of the Japanese economy after the bubble burst. I also discuss the medium- and long-term challenges that face the Japanese economy. The third part concentrates on the issue of the "liquidity trap" Japan is experiencing. I argue that the yen's exchange rate is more likely to appreciate than depreciate by pumping liquidity into the economy while interest rates cannot be lowered any further, and therefore a "helicopter money" policy is the only way to induce a positive inflation rate and escape from the liquidity trap.

Financial Cooperation in East Asia

This paper addresses the rationale for financial cooperation in East Asia. It begins by giving a brief review of developments after the Asian currency crisis, and argues that enhancing regional financial cooperation both quantitatively and qualitatively will require: (1) upgrading surveillance capabilities in the region, and (2) creating a clear division of labor between regional institutions and the IMF. It also mentions the issue of membership and the background forces that have led to the duplication of similar forums in East Asia. Although the concern over crisis management is the central issue in East Asian financial cooperation, other issues such as exchange rate policy coordination and fostering regional capital markets are discussed as well.

Stunted and Distorted Industrialization in Myanmar

More than 15 years have passed since Myanmar embarked on its transition from a centrally planned economy to a market-oriented one. The purpose of this paper is to provide a bird-eye's view of industrial changes from the 1990s up to 2005. The industrial sector showed a preliminary development in the first half of the 1990s due to an "open door" policy and liberalization measures. However, a brief period of growth failed to effect any changes in the economic fundamentals. The industrial sector still suffers from poor power supplies, limited access to imported raw materials and machinery, exchange rate instability, limited credit, and frequent changes of government regulation. Public ownership is still high in key infrastructure sectors, and has failed to provide sufficient services to private industries. What the government must do first is to get the fundamentals right.

International Competitiveness of Manufacturing Firms in sub-Saharan Africa

As the success of East Asian countries has shown, labor-intensive industry is recognized to lead economic growth in the early stages of development, utilizing relatively low labor costs. This same growth process has already started in South and South East Asian LDCs since the mid-1990s. However, the manufacturing sector in sub-Saharan Africa has been underdeveloped and manufacturing exports, in particular labour-intensive goods, have stagnated. This paper investigates the international competitiveness of the African manufacturing sector and its determinants through an analytical survey of empirical studies and a comparison with Asian low income countries. Empirical evidences indicate that primary factors of competitiveness, namely productivity, labour cost and exchange rate are unfavorable in sub-Saharan Africa. Representative arguments attribute the weak competitiveness to problems in the business environment, factor endowment, and the exchange rate. However, careful review shows that labour cost is beyond the range explained by endowment and misalignment of exchange rates have been reduced in Africa. Moreover, comparison with Asian low income countries which have competitiveness in labour-intensive goods shows no difference in the quality of business environment, while the labour cost is significantly lower than sub-Saharan African countries. Although results should be considered tentative, high labour cost beyond endowment and conservative investment behavior emerge as important factors for the weak competitiveness in sub-Saharan Africa when controlling income level.

Monetary Systems in Developing Countries: An Unorthodox View

This paper analyzes some recent theoretical and practical evidence in terms of economic results of different exchange rate systems. It begins with a historical review and a summary of fixed versus flexible exchange rate systems. Then it compares the experiences of recent currency unions, mostly unilateral, and their relative economic performance during the past currency crises in Latin America, East Asia and Eastern Europe. A set of issues is discussed in order to weigh the overall costs and benefits for several economies. These issues include exchange rates, GDP performance, inflation rates and foreign reserves. The case of Argentina is also considered separately, comparing mostly seigniorage costs and interest-rate savings. The benefits and costs of the producers (central banks/governments) and the consumers (citizens) of money are discussed separately. Free banking is also considered in a fast-changing world where there will probably be fewer but better currencies. Not just the euro is a reality now, but maybe the "amero" and the "worldo" or the "mondo" very soon.

An Empirical Analysis of the Monetary Policy Reaction Function in India

This paper empirically analyzes India’s monetary policy reaction function by applying the Taylor (1993) rule and its open-economy version which employs dynamic OLS. The analysis uses monthly data from the period of April 1998 to December 2007. When the simple Taylor rule was estimated for India, the output gap coefficient was statistically significant, and its sign condition was found to be consistent with theoretical rationale; however, the same was not true of the inflation coefficient. When the Taylor rule with exchange rate was estimated, the coefficients of output gap and exchange rate had statistical significance with the expected signs, whereas the results of inflation remained the same as before. Therefore, the inflation rate has not played a role in the conduct of India’s monetary policy, and it is inappropriate for India to adopt an inflation-target type policy framework.

Financial Policies and Dynamic Game Simulation in Poland and Hungary

Recently, steady economic growth rates have been kept in Poland and Hungary. Money supplies are growing rather rapidly in these economies. In large, exchange rates have trends of depreciation. Then, exports and prices show the steady growth rates. It can be thought that per capita GDPs are in the same level and development stages are similar in these two countries. It is assumed that these two economies have the same export market and export goods are competing in it. If one country has an expansion of monetary policy, price increase and interest rate decrease. Then, exchange rate decrease. Exports and GDP will increase through this phenomenon. At the same time, this expanded monetary policy affects another country through the trade. This mutual relationship between two countries can be expressed by the Nash-equilibrium in the Game theory. In this paper, macro-econometric models of Polish and Hungarian economies are built and the Nash- equilibrium is introduced into them.

Liability dollarization and fear of floating

This paper explores the idea that fear of floating can be justified as an optimal discretionary monetary policy in a dollarized emerging economy. Specifically, I consider a small open economy in which intermediate goods importers borrow in foreign currency and face a credit constraint. In this economy, exchange rate depreciation not only worsens importers' net-worth but also increases the financing amount in domestic currency, therefore exaggerating their borrowing finance premium. Besides, because of high exchange rate pass-through into import prices, fluctuations in the exchange rate also have strong impacts on domestic prices and production. These effects, together, magnify the macroeconomic consequences of the floating exchange rate policy in response to external shocks. The paper shows that the floating exchange rate regime is dominated by the fixed exchange rate regime in the role of cushioning shocks and in welfare terms.

Determinants of inbound tourists in Cambodia : a dynamic panel data approach

Understanding the determinants of tourism demand is crucial for the tourism sector. This paper develops a dynamic panel model to examine the determinants of inbound tourists to Siem Reap airport, Phnom Penh airport, and land and waterway borders in Cambodia. Consistent with the consumer theory of tourism consumption, a 10% increase in the origin country GDP per capita is predicted to increase the number of tourist visits to Siem Reap airport by 5.8%. A 10% increase in the real exchange rate between the origin country and Cambodia is predicted to decrease the number of tourist visits by 0.89%. In contrast, the number of foreign tourists in a previous period has little effect on the number of foreign tourists in the current period. Additionally, the determinants are different by the mode of entry to Cambodia.

ANALISANDO A RELAÇÃO DOS VOLUMES DE EXPORTAÇÃO E DE IMPORTAÇÃO, PIB, TAXAS DE CÂMBIO E INFLAÇÃO NO PERÍODO DE 2004 A 2014.

Esta dissertação visa deslumbrar uma análise macroeconômica do Brasil, especialmente no que se refere à relação dos índices mensais dos volumes das exportações e das importações com os volumes mensais do PIB, da Taxa SELIC e as Taxas de Câmbio, conforme dados coletados no período de janeiro de 2004 a dezembro de 2014, através de pesquisa literária referente aos históricos sobre cada conceito envolvido no âmbito da macroeconomia das varáveis estudadas. Foi realizado um estudo de caso embasado em dados de sites governamentais, no período delimitado, empregando-se o método de regressão linear, com base na Teoria da correlação de Pearson, demonstrando os resultados obtidos no período do estudo para as varáveis estudadas. Desta maneira, conseguiu-se estudar e analisar como as variáveis dependentes (resposta): volume das exportações e volume das importações estão relacionadas com as varáveis independentes (explicativas): PIB, Taxa Selic e taxa de Câmbio. Os resultados apurados no presente estudo permitem identificar que existe correlação moderada e negativa, quando analisadas a Taxa Selic e a Taxa de Câmbio com os volumes das exportações e das importações, enquanto o PIB apresenta correlação forte e positiva na análise com os volumes das exportações e das importações