Modelagem estocástica do índice de radiação ultravioleta na costa leste do nordeste do Brasil

The increase in ultraviolet radiation (UV) at surface, the high incidence of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) in coast of Northeast of Brazil (NEB) and reduction of total ozone were the motivation for the present study. The overall objective was to identify and understand the variability of UV or Index Ultraviolet Radiation (UV Index) in the capitals of the east coast of the NEB and adjust stochastic models to time series of UV index aiming make predictions (interpolations) and forecasts / projections (extrapolations) followed by trend analysis. The methodology consisted of applying multivariate analysis (principal component analysis and cluster analysis), Predictive Mean Matching method for filling gaps in the data, autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) and Mann-Kendal. The modeling via the ADL consisted of parameter estimation, diagnostics, residuals analysis and evaluation of the quality of the predictions and forecasts via mean squared error and Pearson correlation coefficient. The research results indicated that the annual variability of UV in the capital of Rio Grande do Norte (Natal) has a feature in the months of September and October that consisting of a stabilization / reduction of UV index because of the greater annual concentration total ozone. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The application of cluster analysis on the east coast of the NEB showed that this event also occurs in the capitals of Paraiba (João Pessoa) and Pernambuco (Recife). Extreme events of UV in NEB were analyzed from the city of Natal and were associated with absence of cloud cover and levels below the annual average of total ozone and did not occurring in the entire region because of the uneven spatial distribution of these variables. The ADL (4, 1) model, adjusted with data of the UV index and total ozone to period 2001-2012 made a the projection / extrapolation for the next 30 years (2013-2043) indicating in end of that period an increase to the UV index of one unit (approximately), case total ozone maintain the downward trend observed in study period

Periurbanização da leishmaniose visceral e emergência da coinfecção HIV/leishimania, no Rio Grande do Norte

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) has undergone changes in terms of clinical and epidemiological presentation worldwide. Urbanization has been described in different regions of Brazil and the world, as well as in the state of Rio Grande do Norte. These changes have impacted in the clinical outcome of Leishmania infection. A new clinical entity called co-infection of HIV/Leishmania has been described as a consequence of overlapping areas of occurrence of VL and HIV / AIDS in different countries including Brazil. The aim of this study was to define the process of periurbanization of the LV and describe a case series of co-infection HIV / Leishmania in Rio Grande do Norte. A new demographic pattern of VL was detected, with an increase in the number VL adult male subjects. Analysis of spatial distribution of VL in the state of Rio Grande do Norte showed that in the past 20 years VL tends to occur in larger cities and therefore the highest risk disease is greater in the eastern and western regions. The first region included Natal, the state capital, where the process of suburbanization began in 1990, and more recently the city of Mossoró, the second largest state, where periurbanization began in the last five years. In 1990, the emergence of co-infection HIV/Leishmania in the state was observed. Case-control study revealed that the new clinical entity affects adult males, who acquired HIV through sexual intercourse, 40% of those with a preivous history of leishmania infection Relapse and death from LV is increased in HIV positive compared with HIV-negative patients matched by sex and age. This pattern is similar to the observed in Europe, except of the route of transmission, where in Europe occured concomitantly, by parenteral route in drug users. Analysis of spatial distribution identified overlapping new areas of occurrence of HIV / AIDS and LV potentially signaling to increased risk of this new clinical entity as described above. Therefore, epidemiological surveillance for co-infection HIV / Leishmania should be adopted in all areas of risk of VL. At the same time, it is necessary to evaluate drug resistance currently used in the treatment of VL, as well as parenteral transmission of L infantum/ chagasi in areas where drug dependence is a risk factor for HIV acquisition

Amostragem seqüencial com base na lei de Taylor para levantamento de Spodoptera frugiperda na cultura do milho

A lagarta do cartucho do milho é uma das principais pragas do milho nas Américas, podendo ocorrer durante todos os estágios de crescimento da cultura, causando perdas de 15 a 37% na produção. Neste trabalho estudou-se a distribuição espacial dessa praga no campo, com a finalidade de desenvolver um sistema de amostragem para estimar sua densidade populacional. Na área cultivada com milho foram selecionados 3 campos experimentais de 40 m x 250 m cada, divididos em 100 parcelas cada. Foram contados o número de lagartas pequenas e grandes de S. frugiperda nas folhas e no cartucho das plantas, em 10 plantas ao acaso por parcela, num total de 1000 plantas por campo, em 5, 5 e 4 datas de amostragem, respectivamente. Lagartas menores que 1 cm eram consideradas pequenas e lagartas maiores que 1 cm, grandes. Foram estimados os parâmetros da lei de Taylor, sendo as estimativas dos parâmetros das regressões altamente significativas para todas as categorias larvais. O parâmetro b da lei de Taylor para lagarta pequena foi igual a 1,57, indicando que a forma de distribuição dessa categoria larval é agregada. Para lagartas grandes o parâmetro b foi igual a 0,79, o que conduz a um tipo de distribuição tendendo para aleatoriedade. Para o número total de lagartas os resultados são equivalentes aos obtidos para lagartas pequenas. Foi desenvolvido um plano de amostragem seqüencial com base nos parâmetros da lei de Taylor.

Spatial distribution of Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera: Psyllidae) in citrus orchards

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Spatial analysis of the distribution of Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) and losses in maize crop productivity using geostatistics

A lagarta-do-cartucho, Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith), é uma das principais pragas do milho nas Américas. O estudo de sua distribuição espacial é fundamental para a utilização de estratégias de controle, otimização de técnicas de amostragens, determinação de danos econômicos e incorporação de um programa de agricultura de precisão. em uma área cultivada com milho foram realizadas amostragens com intervalo semanal, correspondendo ao estádio vegetativo que compreende desde a germinação até o pendoamento. Foram amostradas 10 plantas ao acaso por parcela, no total de 2000 plantas em cada amostragem. A produtividade foi obtida através da colheita de todas as parcelas que eram pesadas separadamente no campo e em cada parcela foram coletadas 15 espigas aleatoriamente para estimar o comprimento e o diâmetro médio. As análises espaciais, utilizando geoestatística, mostraram que o modelo esférico apresentou o melhor ajuste às lagartas pequenas. À medida que as lagartas foram se desenvolvendo sua distribuição foi tornando aleatória, representada por um modelo ajustado por uma reta, não tendo sido detectado nenhum tipo de dependência espacial nos pontos de amostragem. A produtividade e o diâmetro e comprimento da espiga foram descritos por modelos esféricos, indicando uma variabilidade espacial nos parâmetros de produtividade na área cultivada. A geoestatística mostrou-se promissora para a aplicação de métodos precisos no controle integrado de pragas.

Mapas de zonas de risco de epidemias e zoneamento agroclimático para o Cancro Cítrico no Estado de São Paulo

O cancro cítrico, causado pela bactéria Xanthomonas axonopodis pv. citri Valterin et alii 1995, é uma doença conhecida mundialmente e sempre constituiu séria ameaça para a citricultura brasileira. O objetivo do presente trabalho foi analisar as condições climáticas do Estado de São Paulo e desenvolver mapas de zonas de maior risco de epidemias de cancro cítrico. Foram utilizados dados meteorológicos referentes aos anos de 2002 a 2005, os quais foram baseados no modelo de previsão desenvolvido por Campbell & Madden (4) e Hau & Kranz (10). A freqüência dos dados foi horária e quando alguma estação apresentava falha, esses eram extrapolados da estação mais próxima. Foram contabilizados os índices de favorabilidade e posteriormente calculadas as porcentagens de dias favoráveis à ocorrência da doença no período de um ano. A partir destas informações, foram gerados os mapas temáticos do Estado de São Paulo, com a distribuição espacial da porcentagem de dias favoráveis à ocorrência de cancro cítrico. A região Noroeste do Estado foi a que apresentou a maior porcentagem de dias favoráveis à ocorrência de cancro cítrico.

Industrialização e emprego formal: uma análise para os municípios da região metropolitana do Cariri nos anos de 1990 e 2000

The Northeast has a record of fighting to reduce disparities. In late 1950, the state intervened through SUDENE, organizing and planning the promotion of development through industrialization. This study aims to identify the characteristics of the industrialization of the Northeast and evolution of formal employment in the metropolitan area of Cariri, located in the southern state of Ceará, in the case of the municipalities of Crato, Juazeiro do Norte and Barbalha (CRAJUBAR) in decades of 1990 and 2000. The assumption permeates the SUDENE with public policies to encourage the industry, causing profound changes in the cities studied. The results indicate that the Cariri since the 1960 has been benefiting the programs implemented by SUDENE. With the implementation of these programs, with in a set of circumstances based on local vocations and state policies, there was a spatial distribution industry, triggering a growth and development on the provision of formal jobs in the industrial sector

Produtividade de cultivares de cebola em função do número de mudas por célula de bandeja e espaçamento entre covas

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Densidades populacionais de milho em arranjos espaciais convencional e equidistante entre plantas

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Análise da dinâmica espaço-temporal de macrófitas submersas mapeadas com técnicas hidroacústicas no reservatório de Taquaruçu, rio Paranapanema

O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar o desenvolvimento da vegetação submersa, em termos da altura dos dosséis, considerando as dimensões espaço e tempo, usando técnicas de hidroacústica. Foram realizados dez levantamentos de campo no período de outubro de 2009 a dezembro de 2010, para aquisição de pontos georreferenciados de altura dos dosséis, frequência de ocorrência de vegetação, bem como de profundidade. Medidas limnológicas também foram feitas, a fim de verificar se suas variações poderiam explicar a distribuição espacial das macrófitas. Os dados de vegetação foram analisados por levantamento e por profundidade; além disso, compuseram um banco de dados implementado em um Sistema de Informação Geográfica. Foram então interpolados e das superfícies resultantes foram geradas cartas, que indicam a distribuição espacial do crescimento ou decaimento da vegetação. Modelos em três dimensões dos dosséis foram produzidos, para representar a ocupação volumétrica das macrófitas submersas. Os resultados mostraram que houve significativa redução da infestação de um ano para outro. Observou-se, ainda, que os maiores dosséis concentram-se em uma profundidade de 2 a 4 m. O mapeamento identificou tanto áreas de crescimento quanto de decaimento, distribuídas de modo heterogêneo. Não foi possível observar relação direta das medidas limnológicas com a dinâmica da vegetação, pois não apresentaram variação espaço-temporal significativa. Foi possível estimar o volume ocupado pelas macrófitas submersas, e a tendência observada é de que o aumento de volume é precedido por uma aparente homogeneização dos dosséis.

Murcha por Ceratocystis em eucalipto: avaliação de resistência e análise epidemiológica

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Comportamento e ecologia acústica da baleia jubarte (Megaptera novaeangliae) na região Nordeste do Brasil

The acoustic ecology concept involve the relation between the live organisms and their sound environment and is applied in the present work to study the context in which the humpback whale (Megaptera novaeangliae) singing behavior, known as the most complex display in the nature, occurred in the northeastern Brazilian coast, outside the core area of Abrolhos Bank, between 2005 and 2010.I analyze the singer male occurrence , their spatial distribution and probable relations with oceanographic features, such as depth, tide regimen and moon phases. I also describe the acoustic structure and temporal variation of the singing behavior, based on song frequency and time measurements outside the Abrolhos Bank, and further compare the song complexity, registered in the same period, between Abrolhos Bank (16°- 19° S, 37°- 39° W) and the adjacent North Coast, herein considered from Itacaré (14° S, 38° W) to Aracaju (11° S, 37° W). Additionally, I look for describe and analyze anthropogenic noise sources in the marine environment of the study area, produced by the oil industry as well as by the whale watching operation, relating their frequencies to the acoustic niche utilized by the humpbacks. The results indicated a great plasticity in the singing behavior, evidenced by the occurrence of singer males in diverse social structures, from solitary individuals to other groups, even containing females and calves, as well as by the diversity which compound the song, when compared between two regions inside the same breeding area, which present distinct oceanographic characteristics. The singer male distribution may be related with the continental shelf extent along the study area. The anthropogenic noise presented frequency range, amplitude and sound intensity in potential to interfere acoustically in the singing behavior of the species, may resulting in disturbance during the breeding season in the Brazilian coast. Implications about the obtained results in the humpback whale mating system are discussed. In this way, I pretend to contribute with the acoustic ecology subject and provide information to subsidize humpback whale conservation

Otimização no uso de martelos e bigornas para quebrar sementes por macacos prego (Cebus flavius e C. libidinosus) no Bioma Caatinga

Recently, capuchin monkeys (Cebus spp.) inhabitants of dry environments and with restriction of fleshy fruits, have been the subject of several studies regarding the use of instruments. During behaviour of using stones to crack open nuts there is evidence of selection of more effective hammers, as well as selection of anvils related to reducing the risk of predation. The aim of this study was to determine whether two groups of capuchin monkeys (C.flavius and and C.libidinosus) inhabitants of the Caatinga of Rio Grande do Norte make choice of hammers and anvils. The record of weight and location of stones indicated active choices of with what (choice of hammers) and where (selection of anvils) to crack open encapsulated seeds. The choice of hammers to break nuts depended on the type and degree of ripeness seed. Thus, smaller seeds were smashed with lighter hammers and larger seeds with heavier hammers. Still, C. flavius was the only species that presented a refinement in the choice of hammers that depended on the ripeness of seeds. For both species of capuchin monkeys studied, the nut-crack sites were not spread in accordance with the spatial distribution of seed-producing species, suggesting that the capuchin monkeys promote active choice of anvils. Thus, in environments with more escape routes through the trees, the nut-crack sites were found further apart than in regions that had less chance of escape through the trees. Also, there was a difference in the spacing of the anvils to depend on the type of seed: sites used to crack larger and more caloric seeds were found farther apart than the sites used to crack smaller and less caloric seeds, suggesting a pattern of avoiding direct competition. We conclude that the capuchin monkeys maximize energy savings and reduced risk of predation and the costs of food competition during the behaviour of using stones to crack open nuts

Desigualdade regional da mortalidade neonatal no Brasil

In Brazil, despite the decline in infant mortality in recent decades it still has high rates going against recommended by WHO. Being the largest percentage of infant mortality rate composed of neonatal deaths. Objective: A study was conducted to analyze the spatial distribution of neonatal mortality and its correlation with the biological, socioeconomic and maternal and child health care in the Brazilian states in the period from 2006 to 2010. Method: The study made thematic maps and correlation (LISA) for verification of spatial dependence and multiple linear regression models. Results: Was found that there is no spatial autocorrelation for neonatal mortality in the Brazilian states (R = 0.002, p = 0.48). Most of variables were correlated (r> 0.3, p <0.05) with neonatal mortality, forming clusters in the North and Northeast, with the highest rates of teenage mothers, low household income per capita, lower prenatal appointments and beds of Neonatal Intensive Care Unit. The number of Neonatal UCI beds remained independent effect after regression analysis. Conclusion: The study concludes that regional inequalities in living conditions and especially the access to maternal and child health services contribute to the unequal distribution of neonatal mortality in Brazil

Poluição sonora: um grave problema na cidade de Mossoró-RN

In the latest decades, we have observed some environment alterations of big proportions in our planet. Sound pollution, visual pollution, water pollution, air pollution, soil pollution, all the principal kinds of environment pollution have raised in the path of economy development. In Mossoró it is not different; the environment has suffered a long and continuous damage caused by predatory abuse. The river is polluted, the ciliar vegetation of Carnauba was totally altered and with it a part of the local fauna disappeared. In fact, the city urban environment has, and continues to be, deeply altered and the sound pollution is a reflex of the urban modifications undergone in the city as time goes by. Through bibliographic review, the gauging of noise and fieldwork, this research project had the objective of analyzing the principal activities that cause sound pollution in the urban perimeter of the city of Mossoró, RN, emphasizing the causes, effects and spacial distribution of the polluter agents, as well as understanding how the environmental laws treat the sound issue in the urban environment of the city. The President Dutra avenue, where popular events of Mossoró take place and an important access for the city, was the chosen place to study this pollution that became, recently, another hindrance that interferes on the life quality of the local population. The results of this brief research emphasizes the urgency to alert society, specially about the importance of law and public organs that are located in our city, therefore solving problems such as the aforementioned above