Current account and capital mobility hypothesis: Evidence from the G-7

This paper investigates an intertemporal optimization model in order to analyze the current account of the G-7 countries, measured as the present value of the future changes in net output. The study compares observed and forecasted series, generated by the model, using Campbell & Shiller’s (1987) methodology. In the estimation process, the countries are considered separately (with OLS technique) as well as jointly (SURE approach), to capture contemporaneous correlations of the shocks in net output. The paper also proposes a note on Granger causality and its implications to the optimal current account. The empirical results are sensitive to the technique adopted in the estimation process and suggest a rejection of the model in the G-7 countries, except for the USA and Japan, according to some papers presented in the literature.

Improvisação na música contemporânea de concerto : parâmetros para execução da cadenza da peça "The days fly by" de Frederic Rzewski

A presente pesquisa apresenta uma proposta de treinamento para a improvisação de uma cadenza na peça “The Days Fly By” de Frederick Rzewski. A improvisação é um aspecto que se manifesta de várias maneiras no trabalho e na trajetória deste compositor, sendo ele próprio pianista reconhecido por seus improvisos de cadenzas em concertos tradicionais. Seu processo de composição está intimamente relacionado ao da improvisação. É comum em suas composições a inclusão de uma seção em aberto para ser improvisada pelo intérprete. Utilizo os conceitos de referente, base de conhecimento de Jeff Pressing e ponto de partida de Bruno Nettl associados a um modelo de aprendizagem da improvisação proposto por Barry J. Kenny & Martin Gellrich. Esta pesquisa apresenta proposta de exercícios de improvisação fundamentados nos elementos detectados em uma análise da peça.

A trava bancária na recuperação judicial e o seu impacto nas formas de financiamento da empresa: uma análise através da teoria do “common pool assets” de Thomas H. Jackson

O objeto de estudo do presente trabalho é a Trava Bancária, mecanismo jurídico previsto no art. 49, § 3º da Lei de Falências e Recuperação Judicial de Empresas - LRF, por meio do qual dívidas contraídas pelas empresas junto às instituições financeiras são garantidas pela alienação fiduciária dos seus recebíveis. Serão analisadas as peculiaridades desse tipo de garantia fiduciária e, em especial, a prerrogativa que os credores detentores desse tipo de garantia possuem dentro dos procedimento de recuperação judicial de empresas, de não precisarem submeter seus créditos aos procedimentos concursais. Será feita uma análise para demonstrar que a manutenção da trava bancária diminui o valor de going concern da empresa em recuperação, pois a criação de um tipo de credor que é blindado quanto aos efeitos da recuperação judicial impede que essa mantenha-se como um procedimento concursal coletivo e compulsório, requisitos que são essenciais para incentivar os credores da empresa a trabalharem de forma conjunta, mantendo o valor de going concern da empresa recuperanda, com o objetivo de recuperar a empresa e saldarem seus créditos. Tem-se como objetivo demonstrar que, a existência da trava bancária na recuperação judicial, pode afetar negativamente o acesso das empresas ao financiamento por equity. Isto porque, os acionistas das empresas são os últimos da fila de credores a receberem caso a empresa entre em recuperação judicial, e, portanto, acredita-se que, ao saberem que existe um mecanismo que poderá inviabilizar a recuperação judicial das empresas em crise, atrapalhando sua geração de valor de going concern, é possível que investidores desistam de investir em empresas financiadas por dívidas garantidas pela alienação fiduciária de seus recebíveis, passando a ser essa uma variável levada em consideração quando da realização dos procedimentos de valuation para compra de participação acionária em empresas. Os pressupostos teóricos que serão utilizados para embasar a premissa de que a trava bancária gera impacto negativo no valor de going concern das empreas em crise, dificultando seu processo de recuperação, serão extraídos e elaborados a partir da Teoria da Common Pool Assets do autor norte-americano, Thomas H. Jackson. A relevância deste trabalho decorre da importância que o procedimento de recuperação judicial apresenta para as empresas em crise e para os seus credores, bem como a importância que esse tipo de procedimento adquiriu no País. Com efeito, desde a entrada em vigor da LRF no ordenamento jurídico brasileiro em 2005, cerca de 4 mil companhias já pediram recuperação judicial. Além disso, o trabalho mostra-se relevante por abordar questão relativa às formas de financiamento das empresas, assunto que tem reflexo no Custo Brasil e impacto direto no desenvolvimento da economia brasileiro.

Robust statistical modeling of portfolios

Atypical points in the data may result in meaningless e±cient frontiers. This follows since portfolios constructed using classical estimates may re°ect neither the usual nor the unusual days patterns. On the other hand, portfolios constructed using robust approaches are able to capture just the dynamics of the usual days, which constitute the majority of the business days. In this paper we propose an statistical model and a robust estimation procedure to obtain an e±cient frontier which would take into account the behavior of both the usual and most of the atypical days. We show, using real data and simulations, that portfolios constructed in this way require less frequent rebalancing, and may yield higher expected returns for any risk level.

Aplicação da inflação diária para previsão do IPCA

Since 2006, the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) calculates a daily version of the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA), the official inflation index, calculated under the responsibility of the IBGE, the federal statistics agency in Brazil. Ardeo et. al. (2013) showed the importance of this indicator and how this daily information can be useful to a country that had high level of inflation. Despite the fact that this measure is a fair antecedent variable for inflation, due to some peculiarities concerning the collection period, the initial daily rating may not anticipate some effects, such as seasonal factors and the increase in prices controlled by the Brazilian Government. Hence, by taking into account the Monitor´s daily time series, this paper intends to forecast the IPCA for the first six days of data collection. The results showed up that the proposal technic improved the IPCA forecast in the beginning of data collection.

O planejamento de negócios envolvendo tributos indiretos e os seus critérios especiais de resolução

A dissertação busca identificar a existência de critérios especiais de resolução para planejamentos tributários que envolvam tributos indiretos.

Some notes about the determination of current account equilibrium real exchange rate and the relation between real exchange rate and productive specialization

The objective of these notes is to present a simple mathematical model of the determination of current account real exchange rate as defined by Bresser-Pereira (2010); i.e. the real exchange rate that guarantees the inter temporal equilibrium of balance of payments and to show the relation between Real Exchange rate and Productive Specialization at theoretical and empirical level.

How the full opening of the capital account to highly liquid financial markets led Latin America to two and a half cycles of ‘mania, panic and crash’

Latin America has recently experienced three cycles of capital inflows, the first two ending in major financial crises. The first took place between 1973 and the 1982 ‘debt-crisis’. The second took place between the 1989 ‘Brady bonds’ agreement (and the beginning of the economic reforms and financial liberalisation that followed) and the Argentinian 2001/2002 crisis, and ended up with four major crises (as well as the 1997 one in East Asia) — Mexico (1994), Brazil (1999), and two in Argentina (1995 and 2001/2). Finally, the third inflow-cycle began in 2003 as soon as international financial markets felt reassured by the surprisingly neo-liberal orientation of President Lula’s government; this cycle intensified in 2004 with the beginning of a (purely speculative) commodity price-boom, and actually strengthened after a brief interlude following the 2008 global financial crash — and at the time of writing (mid-2011) this cycle is still unfolding, although already showing considerable signs of distress. The main aim of this paper is to analyse the financial crises resulting from this second cycle (both in LA and in East Asia) from the perspective of Keynesian/ Minskyian/ Kindlebergian financial economics. I will attempt to show that no matter how diversely these newly financially liberalised Developing Countries tried to deal with the absorption problem created by the subsequent surges of inflow (and they did follow different routes), they invariably ended up in a major crisis. As a result (and despite the insistence of mainstream analysis), these financial crises took place mostly due to factors that were intrinsic (or inherent) to the workings of over-liquid and under-regulated financial markets — and as such, they were both fully deserved and fairly predictable. Furthermore, these crises point not just to major market failures, but to a systemic market failure: evidence suggests that these crises were the spontaneous outcome of actions by utility-maximising agents, freely operating in friendly (‘light-touch’) regulated, over-liquid financial markets. That is, these crises are clear examples that financial markets can be driven by buyers who take little notice of underlying values — i.e., by investors who have incentives to interpret information in a biased fashion in a systematic way. Thus, ‘fat tails’ also occurred because under these circumstances there is a high likelihood of self-made disastrous events. In other words, markets are not always right — indeed, in the case of financial markets they can be seriously wrong as a whole. Also, as the recent collapse of ‘MF Global’ indicates, the capacity of ‘utility-maximising’ agents operating in (excessively) ‘friendly-regulated’ and over-liquid financial market to learn from previous mistakes seems rather limited.

How the full opening of the capital account to highly liquid financial markets led Latin America to two and a half cycles of ‘mania, panic and crash’

Latin America has recently experienced three cycles of capital inflows, the first two ending in major financial crises. The first took place between 1973 and the 1982 ‘debt-crisis’. The second took place between the 1989 ‘Brady bonds’ agreement (and the beginning of the economic reforms and financial liberalisation that followed) and the Argentinian 2001/2002 crisis, and ended up with four major crises (as well as the 1997 one in East Asia) — Mexico (1994), Brazil (1999), and two in Argentina (1995 and 2001/2). Finally, the third inflow-cycle began in 2003 as soon as international financial markets felt reassured by the surprisingly neo-liberal orientation of President Lula’s government; this cycle intensified in 2004 with the beginning of a (purely speculative) commodity price-boom, and actually strengthened after a brief interlude following the 2008 global financial crash — and at the time of writing (mid-2011) this cycle is still unfolding, although already showing considerable signs of distress. The main aim of this paper is to analyse the financial crises resulting from this second cycle (both in LA and in East Asia) from the perspective of Keynesian/ Minskyian/ Kindlebergian financial economics. I will attempt to show that no matter how diversely these newly financially liberalised Developing Countries tried to deal with the absorption problem created by the subsequent surges of inflow (and they did follow different routes), they invariably ended up in a major crisis. As a result (and despite the insistence of mainstream analysis), these financial crises took place mostly due to factors that were intrinsic (or inherent) to the workings of over-liquid and under-regulated financial markets — and as such, they were both fully deserved and fairly predictable. Furthermore, these crises point not just to major market failures, but to a systemic market failure: evidence suggests that these crises were the spontaneous outcome of actions by utility-maximising agents, freely operating in friendly (light-touched) regulated, over-liquid financial markets. That is, these crises are clear examples that financial markets can be driven by buyers who take little notice of underlying values — investors have incentives to interpret information in a biased fashion in a systematic way. ‘Fat tails’ also occurred because under these circumstances there is a high likelihood of self-made disastrous events. In other words, markets are not always right — indeed, in the case of financial markets they can be seriously wrong as a whole. Also, as the recent collapse of ‘MF Global’ indicates, the capacity of ‘utility-maximising’ agents operating in unregulated and over-liquid financial market to learn from previous mistakes seems rather limited.

Uma maneira de ver e ler John Ashbery em Houseboat Days

Universidade da Madeira

O Plano Diretor como instrumento de gestão da cidade: o caso da cidade de Fortaleza/CE

According to article 182 of the Brazilian Federal Constitution, cities should perform social function, what brings the concept that the city should be a place for one to live well. For that to happen, it should be well administered by its public managers. However, so that there is a sound administration, one that really performs that social function, there must be, first, an efficient planning. We understand that such a thing occurs when the master plan is the main planning instrument of a city and serves as basis for its administration. We notice, however, that in most of the cities the master plan is formulated as a law that regulates urban planning but that both the population and the government most of the times are not aware of its importance concerning the relevant issues related to municipal administration, such as its relationship with the economy, taxation, the social issue, land use regulation, and, in summary, with all the aspects that constitute and that a municipal government should manage in the best possible way. One also knows that, in general, the attempt of city planning has always been connected to the duration of a mandate and that way public managers many times implement restricted measures aiming to just attain a political-electoral objective and publicizing their administration. That implies actions and works that in some cases have negative impacts or ones that cannot be removed from the cities. This study intends to show that the master plan should be the planning instrument guiding the municipal administration but that, however, what we note is a lack of connection between that instrument and the government guidelines of the municipal managers. In order to study what happens to the cities that have a planning which is not taken into account in its administration, we will use the city of Fortaleza, capital of the State of Ceará as a case study. Historically, in Fortaleza the public managers have seldom decided to administer the city in according to the master plans developed for it. We should emphasize that planning begins in the city quite late and until the current days it is being substituted by temporary measures. Through the analysis of the planning process and of the urban management of the city of Fortaleza, especially the master plans predicted since 1933, we explain that if such plans had been implemented, they could have been important tools for its administration to attain a social function, becoming therefore a place for one to live well

Aspectos da biologia reprodutiva de Eretmochelys imbricata (testudines, cheloniidae) no litoral sul do Rio Grande do Norte, Brasil

Female hawksbill turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata) nesting along the southeastcoastline of Rio Grande do Norte State, Brazil (6º13'40"S, 35º03'05"W) were captured and weighed during the four months from January to April 2007, in the course of the annual egglaying season, which extended from 06 rd November 2006 to 30 rd May 2007. In all, 99 weight measurements were performed. On first contact the females exhibited an average post-oviposition weight of 79.1 kg (range 56.2-98.9 kg, SD = 10.9 kg, n = 44 females). Those individuals which were subsequently recaptured showed a mean weight loss of 1.7 kg (range 0.7-4.5 kg, SD = 1.0 kg, n = 39 sets of measurements on 20 females) in the interval between two consecutive post-ovipositions, separated by a maximum time interval of 17 days. In the cases where the female aborted the nesting process, the pre-oviposition weight was measured. The clutch weight, that is to say, the weight loss between consecutive pre-oviposition and post-oviposition measurements (separated by a maximum time interval of 3 days), was found to be 5.2 kg (range 4.3-6.0 kg, SD = 0.9 kg, n = 6 sets of measurements). This value is significantly higher (t-test, p<0.001) than the loss between two consecutive post-oviposition measurements with the same female. The mean recovery in body weight, that is to say, the average gain in weight between successive post-oviposition and pre-oviposition captures of the same individual (separated by a time interval of 12 to 17 days), was found to be 3.0 kg (range 1.9-4.3 kg, SD = 1.0 kg, n = 4 sets of measurements) Although the small sample size makes it unwise to generalise, the recovery in body weight was found to be always significantly lower (t-test, p<0.005) than the clutch weight. This fact is in agreement with the observed weight loss tendency throughout the breeding season for this species. Considering the clutch weight and the internidal recovery in body weight we found that the total weight loss of the adult hawksbill females after three to five nesting events varied from 10.4% (range 8.7-11.9%, SD = 1.6%, n = 3) to 14.1% (range 11.8-15.4%, SD = 1.3%, n = 6) in relation to their initial pre-oviposition weight. If there were no body weight recovery during the internesting interval we estimate that a female that nests three to five times in the course of the season would lose from 19% to 31% of its initial weight. We emphasise that our clutch weight estimate was performed by weighing the females and not by multiplying the number of eggs in the nest by their average unit weight. In this way, our measurements take into account the loss of liquid during the oviposition. Despite the unequivocal evidence of body weight recovery during the internidal interval, it is not clear if the cause of this process is rehydration or feeding

Efeitos do potencial probiótico Enterococcus faecium 32 e de sua associação com o extrato da alga marinha Caulerpa mexicana no tratamento de colite experimental murina

Ulcerative colitis comprising an inflammatory bowel disease, whose most severe consequence is the development of intestinal neoplasia. The drugs currently used to treat the disease trigger a variety of serious adverse effects and are not effective in many cases. Recent studies demonstrated the effectiveness of natural products for the treatment of inflammatory processes. Seaweed extracts and their purified products have shown protective effects in models of inflammation and the association of traditional therapies with probiotics has significantly improved the clinical symptoms of ulcerative colitis. Therefore, the aims of this study include evaluating the potential effects of the use of probiotic strain Enterococcus faecium 32 (Ef32), the methanolic extract of the green seaweed Caulerpa mexicana (M.E.) and their concomitant administration in a murine model of colitis induced by dextran sodium sulfate (DSS). Accordingly, C57BL /6 mice were pretreated orally with Ef32 (109 CFU/ml) for seven days. In the seven days following, the colitis was induced by administration of 3% DSS (w/v) diluted in the animals drinking water. During this period, animals were treated daily with Ef32 and the M.E. (2.0 mg/kg) every other day by intravenous route. The development of colitis was monitored by the disease activity index (DAI), which takes into account the loss of body weight, consistency and presence of blood in stools. After euthanasia, the colon was removed, its length measured and tissue samples were destined for histological analysis and culture for cytokine quantification. The levels of cytokines in the culture supernatant of the colon were measured by ELISA. The treatments with the probiotic Ef32 or the M.E. alone or the combination of these two substances provoked significant improvement as to weight loss and DAI, and prevented the shortening of the colon in response to DSS. The isolated treatments triggered a slight improvement in intestinal mucosal tissue damage. However, their combination was able to completely repair the injury triggered by DSS. The association was also able to reduce the levels of all the cytokines analyzed (IFN-γ, IL-4, IL-6, IL-12, IL-17A and TNF-α). On the other hand, the treatment with Ef32 did not interfere with the levels of TNF-α, whereas treatment with M.E. did not alter the levels of IL-6. Moreover, the treatment with Ef32 not interferes in TNF-α levels, whereas treatment with M.E. did not alter the levels of IL-6. Therefore, the potential probiotic Ef32 and M.E. and especially when these samples were associated proved promising alternatives in the treatment of ulcerative colitis as demonstrated in an experimental model because of its beneficial effects on morphological and clinical parameters, and by reducing the production of proinflammatory cytokines of Th1, Th2 and Th17

Characterization of heat waves affecting mortality rates of broilers between 29 days and market age

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)