DIAGNOSTIC TECHNIQUES OF LOCAL INFLUENCE IN SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF SOYBEAN YIELD

Modeling of spatial dependence structure, concerning geoestatistics approach, is an indispensable tool for fixing parameters that define this structure, applied on interpolation of values in places that are not sampled, by kriging techniques. However, the estimation of parameters can be greatly affected by the presence of atypical observations on sampled data. Thus, this trial aimed at using diagnostics techniques of local influence in spatial linear Gaussians models, applied at geoestatistics in order to evaluate sensitivity of maximum likelihood estimators and restrict maximum likelihood to small perturbations in these data. So, studies with simulated and experimental data were performed. Those results, obtained from the study of real data, allowed us to conclude that the presence of atypical values among the sampled data can have a strong influence on thematic maps, changing, therefore, the spatial dependence. The application of diagnostics techniques of local influence should be part of any geoestatistic analysis, ensuring that the information from thematic maps has better quality and can be used with greater security by farmers.

Road and Traffic Signs Recognition using Vector Machines

Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) is a system that builds a safe, effective and integrated transportation environment based on advanced technologies. Road signs detection and recognition is an important part of ITS, which offer ways to collect the real time traffic data for processing at a central facility.This project is to implement a road sign recognition model based on AI and image analysis technologies, which applies a machine learning method, Support Vector Machines, to recognize road signs. We focus on recognizing seven categories of road sign shapes and five categories of speed limit signs. Two kinds of features, binary image and Zernike moments, are used for representing the data to the SVM for training and test. We compared and analyzed the performances of SVM recognition model using different features and different kernels. Moreover, the performances using different recognition models, SVM and Fuzzy ARTMAP, are observed.

A Contour-based Separation of VerticallyAttached Traffic Signs

This report presents an algorithm for locating the cut points for and separatingvertically attached traffic signs in Sweden. This algorithm provides severaladvanced digital image processing features: binary image which representsvisual object and its complex rectangle background with number one and zerorespectively, improved cross correlation which shows the similarity of 2Dobjects and filters traffic sign candidates, simplified shape decompositionwhich smoothes contour of visual object iteratively in order to reduce whitenoises, flipping point detection which locates black noises candidates, chasmfilling algorithm which eliminates black noises, determines the final cut pointsand separates originally attached traffic signs into individual ones. At each step,the mediate results as well as the efficiency in practice would be presented toshow the advantages and disadvantages of the developed algorithm. Thisreport concentrates on contour-based recognition of Swedish traffic signs. Thegeneral shapes cover upward triangle, downward triangle, circle, rectangle andoctagon. At last, a demonstration program would be presented to show howthe algorithm works in real-time environment.

Real-Time Recognition System for Traffic Signs

The aim of this thesis project is to develop the Traffic Sign Recognition algorithm for real time. Inreal time environment, vehicles move at high speed on roads. For the vehicle intelligent system itbecomes essential to detect, process and recognize the traffic sign which is coming in front ofvehicle with high relative velocity, at the right time, so that the driver would be able to pro-actsimultaneously on instructions given in the Traffic Sign. The system assists drivers about trafficsigns they did not recognize before passing them. With the Traffic Sign Recognition system, thevehicle becomes aware of the traffic environment and reacts according to the situation.The objective of the project is to develop a system which can recognize the traffic signs in real time.The three target parameters are the system’s response time in real-time video streaming, the trafficsign recognition speed in still images and the recognition accuracy. The system consists of threeprocesses; the traffic sign detection, the traffic sign recognition and the traffic sign tracking. Thedetection process uses physical properties of traffic signs based on a priori knowledge to detect roadsigns. It generates the road sign image as the input to the recognition process. The recognitionprocess is implemented using the Pattern Matching algorithm. The system was first tested onstationary images where it showed on average 97% accuracy with the average processing time of0.15 seconds for traffic sign recognition. This procedure was then applied to the real time videostreaming. Finally the tracking of traffic signs was developed using Blob tracking which showed theaverage recognition accuracy to 95% in real time and improved the system’s average response timeto 0.04 seconds. This project has been implemented in C-language using the Open Computer VisionLibrary.

Evaluation of Red Colour Segmentation Algorithms in Traffic Signs Detection

Colour segmentation is the most commonly used method in road signs detection. Road sign contains several basic colours such as red, yellow, blue and white which depends on countries.The objective of this thesis is to do an evaluation of the four colour segmentation algorithms. Dynamic Threshold Algorithm, A Modification of de la Escalera’s Algorithm, the Fuzzy Colour Segmentation Algorithm and Shadow and Highlight Invariant Algorithm. The processing time and segmentation success rate as criteria are used to compare the performance of the four algorithms. And red colour is selected as the target colour to complete the comparison. All the testing images are selected from the Traffic Signs Database of Dalarna University [1] randomly according to the category. These road sign images are taken from a digital camera mounted in a moving car in Sweden.Experiments show that the Fuzzy Colour Segmentation Algorithm and Shadow and Highlight Invariant Algorithm are more accurate and stable to detect red colour of road signs. And the method could also be used in other colours analysis research. The yellow colour which is chosen to evaluate the performance of the four algorithms can reference Master Thesis of Yumei Liu.

The Optimal trigger speed of vehicle activated signs

The thesis aims to elaborate on the optimum trigger speed for Vehicle Activated Signs (VAS) and to study the effectiveness of VAS trigger speed on drivers’ behaviour. Vehicle activated signs (VAS) are speed warning signs that are activated by individual vehicle when the driver exceeds a speed threshold. The threshold, which triggers the VAS, is commonly based on a driver speed, and accordingly, is called a trigger speed. At present, the trigger speed activating the VAS is usually set to a constant value and does not consider the fact that an optimal trigger speed might exist. The optimal trigger speed significantly impacts driver behaviour. In order to be able to fulfil the aims of this thesis, systematic vehicle speed data were collected from field experiments that utilized Doppler radar. Further calibration methods for the radar used in the experiment have been developed and evaluated to provide accurate data for the experiment. The calibration method was bidirectional; consisting of data cleaning and data reconstruction. The data cleaning calibration had a superior performance than the calibration based on the reconstructed data. To study the effectiveness of trigger speed on driver behaviour, the collected data were analysed by both descriptive and inferential statistics. Both descriptive and inferential statistics showed that the change in trigger speed had an effect on vehicle mean speed and on vehicle standard deviation of the mean speed. When the trigger speed was set near the speed limit, the standard deviation was high. Therefore, the choice of trigger speed cannot be based solely on the speed limit at the proposed VAS location. The optimal trigger speeds for VAS were not considered in previous studies. As well, the relationship between the trigger value and its consequences under different conditions were not clearly stated. The finding from this thesis is that the optimal trigger speed should be primarily based on lowering the standard deviation rather than lowering the mean speed of vehicles. Furthermore, the optimal trigger speed should be set near the 85th percentile speed, with the goal of lowering the standard deviation.

Speed prediction for triggering vehicle activated signs

Accurate speed prediction is a crucial step in the development of a dynamic vehcile activated sign (VAS). A previous study showed that the optimal trigger speed of such signs will need to be pre-determined according to the nature of the site and to the traffic conditions. The objective of this paper is to find an accurate predictive model based on historical traffic speed data to derive the optimal trigger speed for such signs. Adaptive neuro fuzzy (ANFIS), classification and regression tree (CART) and random forest (RF) were developed to predict one step ahead speed during all times of the day. The developed models were evaluated and compared to the results obtained from artificial neural network (ANN), multiple linear regression (MLR) and naïve prediction using traffic speed data collected at four sites located in Sweden. The data were aggregated into two periods, a short term period (5-min) and a long term period (1-hour). The results of this study showed that using RF is a promising method for predicting mean speed in the two proposed periods.. It is concluded that in terms of performance and computational complexity, a simplistic input features to the predicitive model gave a marked increase in the response time of the model whilse still delivering a low prediction error.

Benchmark Evaluation of HOG Descriptors as Features for Classification of Traffic Signs

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the performance of the Histograms of Oriented Gradients (HOG) as descriptors for traffic signs recognition. The test dataset consists of speed limit traffic signs because of their high inter-class similarities.   HOG features of speed limit signs, which were extracted from different traffic scenes, were computed and a Gentle AdaBoost classifier was invoked to evaluate the different features. The performance of HOG was tested with a dataset consisting of 1727 Swedish speed signs images. Different numbers of HOG features per descriptor, ranging from 36 features up 396 features, were computed for each traffic sign in the benchmark testing. The results show that HOG features perform high classification rate as the Gentle AdaBoost classification rate was 99.42%, and they are suitable to real time traffic sign recognition. However, it is found that changing the number of orientation bins has insignificant effect on the classification rate. In addition to this, HOG descriptors are not robust with respect to sign orientation.

Color detection and segmentation for road and traffic signs

This paper aims to present three new methods for color detection and segmentation of road signs. The images are taken by a digital camera mounted in a car. The RGB images are converted into IHLS color space, and new methods are applied to extract the colors of the road signs under consideration. The methods are tested on hundreds of outdoor images in different light conditions, and they show high robustness. This project is part of the research taking place in Dalarna University / Sweden in the field of the ITS.

Genetic studies of body mass index yield new insights for obesity biology

Obesity is heritable and predisposes to many diseases. To understand the genetic basis of obesity better, here we conduct a genome-wide association study and Metabochip meta-analysis of body mass index (BMI), a measure commonly used to define obesity and assess adiposity, in upto 339,224 individuals. This analysis identifies 97 BMI-associated loci (P < 5 x 10(-8)), 56 of which are novel. Five loci demonstrate clear evidence of several independent association signals, and many loci have significant effects on other metabolic phenotypes. The 97 loci account for similar to 2.7% of BMI variation, and genome-wide estimates suggest that common variation accounts for >20% of BMI variation. Pathway analyses provide strong support for a role of the central nervous systemin obesity susceptibility and implicate new genes and pathways, including those related to synaptic function, glutamate signalling, insulin secretion/action, energy metabolism, lipid biology and adipogenesis.

A data driven approach for automating vehicle activated signs

Vehicle activated signs (VAS) display a warning message when drivers exceed a particular threshold. VAS are often installed on local roads to display a warning message depending on the speed of the approaching vehicles. VAS are usually powered by electricity; however, battery and solar powered VAS are also commonplace. This thesis investigated devel-opment of an automatic trigger speed of vehicle activated signs in order to influence driver behaviour, the effect of which has been measured in terms of reduced mean speed and low standard deviation. A comprehen-sive understanding of the effectiveness of the trigger speed of the VAS on driver behaviour was established by systematically collecting data. Specif-ically, data on time of day, speed, length and direction of the vehicle have been collected for the purpose, using Doppler radar installed at the road. A data driven calibration method for the radar used in the experiment has also been developed and evaluated. Results indicate that trigger speed of the VAS had variable effect on driv-ers’ speed at different sites and at different times of the day. It is evident that the optimal trigger speed should be set near the 85th percentile speed, to be able to lower the standard deviation. In the case of battery and solar powered VAS, trigger speeds between the 50th and 85th per-centile offered the best compromise between safety and power consump-tion. Results also indicate that different classes of vehicles report differ-ences in mean speed and standard deviation; on a highway, the mean speed of cars differs slightly from the mean speed of trucks, whereas a significant difference was observed between the classes of vehicles on lo-cal roads. A differential trigger speed was therefore investigated for the sake of completion. A data driven approach using Random forest was found to be appropriate in predicting trigger speeds respective to types of vehicles and traffic conditions. The fact that the predicted trigger speed was found to be consistently around the 85th percentile speed justifies the choice of the automatic model.

Review of the effectiveness of vehicle activated signs

This paper reviews the effectiveness of vehicle activated signs. Vehicle activated signs are being reportedly used in recent years to display dynamic information to road users on an individual basis in order to give a warning or inform about a specific event. Vehicle activated signs are triggered individually by vehicles when a certain criteria is met. An example of such criteria is to trigger a speed limit sign when the driver exceeds a pre-set threshold speed. The preset threshold is usually set to a constant value which is often equal, or relative, to the speed limit on a particular road segment. This review examines in detail the basis for the configuration of the existing sign types in previous studies and explores the relation between the configuration of the sign and their impact on driver behavior and sign efficiency. Most of previous studies showed that these signs have significant impact on driver behavior, traffic safety and traffic efficiency. In most cases the signs deployed have yielded reductions in mean speeds, in speed variation and in longer headways. However most experiments reported within the area were performed with the signs set to a certain static configuration within applicable conditions. Since some of the aforementioned factors are dynamic in nature, it is felt that the configurations of these signs were thus not carefully considered by previous researchers and there is no clear statement in the previous studies describing the relationship between the trigger value and its consequences under different conditions. Bearing in mind that different designs of vehicle activated signs can give a different impact under certain conditions of road, traffic and weather conditions the current work suggests that variable speed thresholds should be considered instead.

Data based Calibration System for Radar used by Vehicle Activated Signs

The accurate measurement of a vehicle’s velocity is an essential feature in adaptive vehicle activated sign systems. Since the velocities of the vehicles are acquired from a continuous wave Doppler radar, the data collection becomes challenging. Data accuracy is sensitive to the calibration of the radar on the road. However, clear methodologies for in-field calibration have not been carefully established. The signs are often installed by subjective judgment which results in measurement errors. This paper develops a calibration method based on mining the data collected and matching individual vehicles travelling between two radars. The data was cleaned and prepared in two ways: cleaning and reconstructing. The results showed that the proposed correction factor derived from the cleaned data corresponded well with the experimental factor done on site. In addition, this proposed factor showed superior performance to the one derived from the reconstructed data.

Triggering Solar-Powered Vehicle Activated Signs using Self Organising Maps with K-means

Solar-powered vehicle activated signs (VAS) are speed warning signs powered by batteries that are recharged by solar panels. These signs are more desirable than other active warning signs due to the low cost of installation and the minimal maintenance requirements. However, one problem that can affect a solar-powered VAS is the limited power capacity available to keep the sign operational. In order to be able to operate the sign more efficiently, it is proposed that the sign be appropriately triggered by taking into account the prevalent conditions. Triggering the sign depends on many factors such as the prevailing speed limit, road geometry, traffic behaviour, the weather and the number of hours of daylight. The main goal of this paper is therefore to develop an intelligent algorithm that would help optimize the trigger point to achieve the best compromise between speed reduction and power consumption. Data have been systematically collected whereby vehicle speed data were gathered whilst varying the value of the trigger speed threshold. A two stage algorithm is then utilized to extract the trigger speed value. Initially the algorithm employs a Self-Organising Map (SOM), to effectively visualize and explore the properties of the data that is then clustered in the second stage using K-means clustering method. Preliminary results achieved in the study indicate that using a SOM in conjunction with K-means method is found to perform well as opposed to direct clustering of the data by K-means alone. Using a SOM in the current case helped the algorithm determine the number of clusters in the data set, which is a frequent problem in data clustering.

The Determinants of Recovery Rates on Defaulted Corporate Securities: Why do Fallen Angels recover more than Original High Yield Issues?

Regression analysis has shown that recovery rates are determined by a variety of conditions at the time of default. These conditions can be broken into five major categories: (1) a security's seniority within the capital structure of the defaulting firm, (2) the type of default event, (3) firm-specific factors, (4) industry-specific factors, and (5) macroeconomic factors. Expectations of these inputs determine the expected recovery rate if default were to occur, thereby determining credit ratings and security prices. Although it is widely understood how recovery rate estimates influence credit rating assignments (the higher the expected recovery rate, the higher the assigned credit rating), no research, to the best of my knowledge, has investigated the reasons why higher rated securities recover more than lower rated securities in the event of default. Specifically, this paper will empirically investigate why securities originally rated investment grade, fallen angels, recover more than securities originally rated high yield in the event of default.