Web based expert elicitation of uncertainties in environmental model inputs

When constructing and using environmental models, it is typical that many of the inputs to the models will not be known perfectly. In some cases, it will be possible to make observations, or occasionally physics-based uncertainty propagation, to ascertain the uncertainty on these inputs. However, such observations are often either not available or even possible, and another approach to characterising the uncertainty on the inputs must be sought. Even when observations are available, if the analysis is being carried out within a Bayesian framework then prior distributions will have to be specified. One option for gathering or at least estimating this information is to employ expert elicitation. Expert elicitation is well studied within statistics and psychology and involves the assessment of the beliefs of a group of experts about an uncertain quantity, (for example an input / parameter within a model), typically in terms of obtaining a probability distribution. One of the challenges in expert elicitation is to minimise the biases that might enter into the judgements made by the individual experts, and then to come to a consensus decision within the group of experts. Effort is made in the elicitation exercise to prevent biases clouding the judgements through well-devised questioning schemes. It is also important that, when reaching a consensus, the experts are exposed to the knowledge of the others in the group. Within the FP7 UncertWeb project (http://www.uncertweb.org/), there is a requirement to build a Webbased tool for expert elicitation. In this paper, we discuss some of the issues of building a Web-based elicitation system - both the technological aspects and the statistical and scientific issues. In particular, we demonstrate two tools: a Web-based system for the elicitation of continuous random variables and a system designed to elicit uncertainty about categorical random variables in the setting of landcover classification uncertainty. The first of these examples is a generic tool developed to elicit uncertainty about univariate continuous random variables. It is designed to be used within an application context and extends the existing SHELF method, adding a web interface and access to metadata. The tool is developed so that it can be readily integrated with environmental models exposed as web services. The second example was developed for the TREES-3 initiative which monitors tropical landcover change through ground-truthing at confluence points. It allows experts to validate the accuracy of automated landcover classifications using site-specific imagery and local knowledge. Experts may provide uncertainty information at various levels: from a general rating of their confidence in a site validation to a numerical ranking of the possible landcover types within a segment. A key challenge in the web based setting is the design of the user interface and the method of interacting between the problem owner and the problem experts. We show the workflow of the elicitation tool, and show how we can represent the final elicited distributions and confusion matrices using UncertML, ready for integration into uncertainty enabled workflows.We also show how the metadata associated with the elicitation exercise is captured and can be referenced from the elicited result, providing crucial lineage information and thus traceability in the decision making process.

Managing uncertainty in integrated environmental modelling:the UncertWeb framework

Web-based distributed modelling architectures are gaining increasing recognition as potentially useful tools to build holistic environmental models, combining individual components in complex workflows. However, existing web-based modelling frameworks currently offer no support for managing uncertainty. On the other hand, the rich array of modelling frameworks and simulation tools which support uncertainty propagation in complex and chained models typically lack the benefits of web based solutions such as ready publication, discoverability and easy access. In this article we describe the developments within the UncertWeb project which are designed to provide uncertainty support in the context of the proposed ‘Model Web’. We give an overview of uncertainty in modelling, review uncertainty management in existing modelling frameworks and consider the semantic and interoperability issues raised by integrated modelling. We describe the scope and architecture required to support uncertainty management as developed in UncertWeb. This includes tools which support elicitation, aggregation/disaggregation, visualisation and uncertainty/sensitivity analysis. We conclude by highlighting areas that require further research and development in UncertWeb, such as model calibration and inference within complex environmental models.

An integrated environment for semantic knowledge work

In this demonstration, we will present a semantic environment called the K-Box. The K-Box supports the lightweight integration of knowledge tools, with a focus on semantic tools, but with the flexibility to integrate natural language and conventional tools. We discuss the implementation of the framework, and two existing applications, including details of a new application for developers of semantic workflows. The demonstration will be of interest to developers and researchers of ontology-based knowledge management systems, and semantic desktops, and to analysts working with cross-media information. © 2011 ACM.

Uncertainty analysis in the Model Web

This thesis provides a set of tools for managing uncertainty in Web-based models and workflows.To support the use of these tools, this thesis firstly provides a framework for exposing models through Web services. An introduction to uncertainty management, Web service interfaces,and workflow standards and technologies is given, with a particular focus on the geospatial domain.An existing specification for exposing geospatial models and processes, theWeb Processing Service (WPS), is critically reviewed. A processing service framework is presented as a solutionto usability issues with the WPS standard. The framework implements support for Simple ObjectAccess Protocol (SOAP), Web Service Description Language (WSDL) and JavaScript Object Notation (JSON), allowing models to be consumed by a variety of tools and software. Strategies for communicating with models from Web service interfaces are discussed, demonstrating the difficultly of exposing existing models on the Web. This thesis then reviews existing mechanisms for uncertainty management, with an emphasis on emulator methods for building efficient statistical surrogate models. A tool is developed to solve accessibility issues with such methods, by providing a Web-based user interface and backend to ease the process of building and integrating emulators. These tools, plus the processing service framework, are applied to a real case study as part of the UncertWeb project. The usability of the framework is proved with the implementation of aWeb-based workflow for predicting future crop yields in the UK, also demonstrating the abilities of the tools for emulator building and integration. Future directions for the development of the tools are discussed.

Using the Business Process Execution Language for Managing Scientific Processes

This paper describes the use of the Business Process Execution Language for Web Services (BPEL4WS/BPEL) for managing scientific workflows. This work is result of our attempt to adopt Service Oriented Architecture in order to perform Web services – based simulation of metal vapor lasers. Scientific workflows can be more demanding in their requirements than business processes. In the context of addressing these requirements, the features of the BPEL4WS specification are discussed, which is widely regarded as the de-facto standard for orchestrating Web services for business workflows. A typical use case of calculation the electric field potential and intensity distributions is discussed as an example of building a BPEL process to perform distributed simulation constructed by loosely-coupled services.

The Design and Analysis of Context-Aware, Secure Workflow Systems

Workflows are set of activities that implement and realise business goals. Modern business goals add extra requirements on workflow systems and their management. Workflows may cross many organisations and utilise services on a variety of devices and/or supported by different platforms. Current workflows are therefore inherently context-aware. Each context is governed and constrained by its own policies and rules to prevent unauthorised participants from executing sensitive tasks and also to prevent tasks from accessing unauthorised services and/or data. We present a sound and multi-layered design language for the design and analysis of secure and context aware workflows systems.

Modernizing Legacy Physics Applications for Reuse in Web and SOA

This paper concerns the application of recent information technologies for creating a software system for numerical simulations in the domain of plasma physics and in particular metal vapor lasers. The presented work is connected with performing modernization of legacy physics software for reuse on the web and inside a Service-Oriented Architecture environment. Applied and described is the creation of Java front-ends of legacy C++ and FORTRAN codes. Then the transformation of some of the scientific components into web services, as well as the creation of a web interface to the legacy application, is presented. The use of the BPEL language for managing scientific workflows is also considered.

Importance and Benefits of OPEN SCIENCE for Ubiquitous Sharing, Dissemination and Impact

While openness is well applied to software development and exploitation (open sources), and successfully applied to new business models (open innovation), fundamental and applied research seems to lag behind. Even after decades of advocacy, in 2011 only 50% of the public-funded research was freely available and accessible (Archambault et al., 2013). The current research workflows, stemming from a pre-internet age, result in loss of opportunity not only for the researchers themselves (cf. extensive literature on topic at Open Access citation project, http://opcit.eprints.org/), but also slows down innovation and application of research results (Houghton & Swan, 2011). Recent studies continue to suggest that lack of awareness among researchers, rather than lack of e-infrastructure and methodology, is a key reason for this loss of opportunity (Graziotin 2014). The session will focus on why Open Science is ideally suited to achieving tenure-relevant researcher impact in a “Publish or Perish” reality. Open Science encapsulates tools and approaches for each step along the research cycle: from Open Notebook Science to Open Data, Open Access, all setting up researchers for capitalising on social media in order to promote and discuss, and establish unexpected collaborations. Incorporating these new approaches into a updated personal research workflow is of strategic beneficial for young researchers, and will prepare them for expected long term funder trends towards greater openness and demand for greater return on investment (ROI) for public funds.

Automated Assessment Through Integration of Heterogeneous Systems with a Workflow Engine

Report published in the Proceedings of the National Conference on "Education and Research in the Information Society", Plovdiv, May, 2015

Using observation ageing to improve Markovian model learning in QoS engineering

Markovian models are widely used to analyse quality-of-service properties of both system designs and deployed systems. Thanks to the emergence of probabilistic model checkers, this analysis can be performed with high accuracy. However, its usefulness is heavily dependent on how well the model captures the actual behaviour of the analysed system. Our work addresses this problem for a class of Markovian models termed discrete-time Markov chains (DTMCs). We propose a new Bayesian technique for learning the state transition probabilities of DTMCs based on observations of the modelled system. Unlike existing approaches, our technique weighs observations based on their age, to account for the fact that older observations are less relevant than more recent ones. A case study from the area of bioinformatics workflows demonstrates the effectiveness of the technique in scenarios where the model parameters change over time.

A domain specific modeling approach for coordinating user-centric communication services

Rapid advances in electronic communication devices and technologies have resulted in a shift in the way communication applications are being developed. These new development strategies provide abstract views of the underlying communication technologies and lead to the so-called user-centric communication applications. One user-centric communication (UCC) initiative is the Communication Virtual Machine (CVM) technology, which uses the Communication Modeling Language (CML) for modeling communication services and the CVM for realizing these services. In communication-intensive domains such as telemedicine and disaster management, there is an increasing need for user-centric communication applications that are domain-specific and that support the dynamic coordination of communication services commonly found in collaborative communication scenarios. However, UCC approaches like the CVM offer little support for the dynamic coordination of communication services resulting from inherent dependencies between individual steps of a collaboration task. Users either have to manually coordinate communication services, or reply on a process modeling technique to build customized solutions for services in a specific domain that are usually costly, rigidly defined and technology specific. ^ This dissertation proposes a domain-specific modeling approach to address this problem by extending the CVM technology with communication-specific abstractions of workflow concepts commonly found in business processes. The extension involves (1) the definition of the Workflow Communication Modeling Language (WF-CML), a superset of CML, and (2) the extension of the functionality of CVM to process communication-specific workflows. The definition of WF-CML includes the meta-model and the dynamic semantics for control constructs and concurrency. We also extended the CVM prototype to handle the modeling and realization of WF-CML models. A comparative study of the proposed approach with other workflow environments validates the claimed benefits of WF-CML and CVM.^

Methods for modeling and analyzing concurrent software

Concurrent software executes multiple threads or processes to achieve high performance. However, concurrency results in a huge number of different system behaviors that are difficult to test and verify. The aim of this dissertation is to develop new methods and tools for modeling and analyzing concurrent software systems at design and code levels. This dissertation consists of several related results. First, a formal model of Mondex, an electronic purse system, is built using Petri nets from user requirements, which is formally verified using model checking. Second, Petri nets models are automatically mined from the event traces generated from scientific workflows. Third, partial order models are automatically extracted from some instrumented concurrent program execution, and potential atomicity violation bugs are automatically verified based on the partial order models using model checking. Our formal specification and verification of Mondex have contributed to the world wide effort in developing a verified software repository. Our method to mine Petri net models automatically from provenance offers a new approach to build scientific workflows. Our dynamic prediction tool, named McPatom, can predict several known bugs in real world systems including one that evades several other existing tools. McPatom is efficient and scalable as it takes advantage of the nature of atomicity violations and considers only a pair of threads and accesses to a single shared variable at one time. However, predictive tools need to consider the tradeoffs between precision and coverage. Based on McPatom, this dissertation presents two methods for improving the coverage and precision of atomicity violation predictions: 1) a post-prediction analysis method to increase coverage while ensuring precision; 2) a follow-up replaying method to further increase coverage. Both methods are implemented in a completely automatic tool.

Uma abordagem para evolução e reconciliação de linhas de produtos de software clonadas

Software product line engineering promotes large software reuse by developing a system family that shares a set of developed core features, and enables the selection and customization of a set of variabilities that distinguish each software product family from the others. In order to address the time-to-market, the software industry has been using the clone-and-own technique to create and manage new software products or product lines. Despite its advantages, the clone-and-own approach brings several difficulties for the evolution and reconciliation of the software product lines, especially because of the code conflicts generated by the simultaneous evolution of the original software product line, called Source, and its cloned products, called Target. This thesis proposes an approach to evolve and reconcile cloned products based on mining software repositories and code conflict analysis techniques. The approach provides support to the identification of different kinds of code conflicts – lexical, structural and semantics – that can occur during development task integration – bug correction, enhancements and new use cases – from the original evolved software product line to the cloned product line. We have also conducted an empirical study of characterization of the code conflicts produced during the evolution and merging of two large-scale web information system product lines. The results of our study demonstrate the approach potential to automatically or semi-automatically solve several existing code conflicts thus contributing to reduce the complexity and costs of the reconciliation of cloned software product lines.

Cloud Stratus: uma plataforma de middleware para desenvolvimento de aplicações em nuvem

Cloud Computing is a paradigm that enables the access, in a simple and pervasive way, through the network, to shared and configurable computing resources. Such resources can be offered on demand to users in a pay-per-use model. With the advance of this paradigm, a single service offered by a cloud platform might not be enough to meet all the requirements of clients. Ergo, it is needed to compose services provided by different cloud platforms. However, current cloud platforms are not implemented using common standards, each one has its own APIs and development tools, which is a barrier for composing different services. In this context, the Cloud Integrator, a service-oriented middleware platform, provides an environment to facilitate the development and execution of multi-cloud applications. The applications are compositions of services, from different cloud platforms and, represented by abstract workflows. However, Cloud Integrator has some limitations, such as: (i) applications are locally executed; (ii) users cannot specify the application in terms of its inputs and outputs, and; (iii) experienced users cannot directly determine the concrete Web services that will perform the workflow. In order to deal with such limitations, this work proposes Cloud Stratus, a middleware platform that extends Cloud Integrator and offers different ways to specify an application: as an abstract workflow or a complete/partial execution flow. The platform enables the application deployment in cloud virtual machines, so that several users can access it through the Internet. It also supports the access and management of virtual machines in different cloud platforms and provides services monitoring mechanisms and assessment of QoS parameters. Cloud Stratus was validated through a case study that consists of an application that uses different services provided by different cloud platforms. Cloud Stratus was also evaluated through computing experiments that analyze the performance of its processes.

Análise textual das representações discursivas no discurso político brasileiro: o discurso da primeira posse da presidenta Dilma Rousseff (1°/01/2011)

Cette recherche décrit la représentation discursive que la présidente Dilma Rousseff fait de soi-même, dans son discours devant le Congrès National, lors de la journée d’investiture, le 1/1/2011. Notre travail se situe dans le domaine théorique et méthodologique de la linguistique du texte et, plus spécialement, dans la perspective de l’Analyse Textuelle des Discours – ATD (ADAM, 2011 [2008a]), qui se définit comme « une théorie de la production co(n)textuelle de sens qui doit se fonder sur l’analyse de textes concrets ». Elle nous fournit la notion théorique et analytique de « représentation discursive », qui se focalise sur la dimension sémantique du texte. Nous nous appuyons, aussi, sur des travaux récents sur les représentations discursives, réalisés dans la recherche brésilienne sur l’ATD (RODRIGUES, PASSEGGI, SILVA NETO, 2010, 2012; RAMOS, 2011; OLIVEIRA, 2013; QUEIROZ, 2013; ZAMBLANO-OLIVEIRA, PASSEGGI, 2013). Les principales opérations sémantiques de construction de la représentation discursive utilisées dans notre travail sont la Référenciation et la Prédication. L’approche méthodologique est, en même temps, qualitative et quantitative, priorisant l’identification des occurrences, ainsi que la description détaillée de leurs valeurs sémantiques et textuelles. Les résultats de la recherche sont de trois ordres : méthodologique, théorique et descriptif-interprétatif. Méthodologique : nous proposons une approche que nous désignons comme « marquage textuel » (ou « mappage textuel ») qui permet de marquer (étiqueter) les valeurs sémantiques des formes linguistiques, permettant leur identification dans le flux textuel, c.-à-d., dans la dimension séquentiellecompositionnelle du texte. Théorique : nous introduisons la notion de « domaines de la représentation discursive » qui organisent et articulent les différents éléments qui composent la représentation discursive de la présidente. Quant aux résultats descriptifsinterprétatifs du discours de l’investiture, ils indiquent que la représentation discursive de la présidente se configure au moyen de différents domaines conceptuels, explicités par les référenciations et les prédications. Ils mettent en relief les désignations et les actions / états, aussi bien de la femme – domaine du genre – que de la présidente – domaine du rôle politique et institutionnel. La présidente se représente explicitement et avec emphase comme l’agent responsable par les actions exprimées par les prédications verbales (verbes d’action), consciente de l’importance de son rôle politique et social. Les prédications nominales signalent clairement une représentation discursive qui englobe les domaines conceptuels politique, moral, éthique, comportemental et émotionnel (forte, accueillante, pionnière, consolidatrice, infatigable, humble, engagée, démocrate, victorieuse et courageuse). Le discours d’investiture réalise, donc, des désignations positives de la présidente, lesquelles se situent dans un temps présent et prospectif – avec des perspectives de futur – comme leader politique du Brésil, avec une participation active dans la transformation du pays, tenant compte aussi de son histoire de vie, sa biographie de luttes. Ainsi, la description empirique et l’interprétation de ce discours particulier contribue à l’analyse textuelle des représentations discursives dans le discours politique brésilien contemporain. Elle soulève, aussi, des questions théoriques et méthodologiques qui nous semblent pertinentes pour le développement de cette aproche.