The Omega model: from bankruptcy to occupation times in the red

Ruin occurs the first time when the surplus of a company or an institution is negative. In the Omega model, it is assumed that even with a negative surplus, the company can do business as usual until bankruptcy occurs. The probability of bankruptcy at a point of time only depends on the value of the negative surplus at that time. Under the assumption of Brownian motion for the surplus, the expected discounted value of a penalty at bankruptcy is determined, and hence the probability of bankruptcy. There is an intrinsic relation between the probability of no bankruptcy and an exposure random variable. In special cases, the distribution of the total time the Brownian motion spends below zero is found, and the Laplace transform of the integral of the negative part of the Brownian motion is expressed in terms of the Airy function of the first kind.

Mercado futuro e físico de SLCC: conhecimento e uso no agronegócio citrícola do Brasil

O presente estudo teve como objetivo analisar por que as indústrias processadoras de suco concentrado e congelado de laranja não estão negociando na New York Board of Trade como hedger, considerando que o risco de preços é alto neste setor, e preferindo utilizar o preço de Roterdã como base para as suas negociações.Os mercados derivativos de commodities agrícolas são utilizados na administração do risco de preços, e a maioria dos contratos negociados em bolsas de mercadorias no mundo inteiro têm tido sucesso, mas, no caso do suco de laranja concentrado e congelado, negociado na NYBOT (atual IntercontinentalExchange (NYSE:ICE)), o volume de negociação de contratos é baixo em comparação com outras commodities.Mas os custos de transação relacionados ao mercado futuro de SLCC, aliados com a concentração das empresas brasileiras processadoras de suco concentrado de laranja, acabaram induzindo um modo alternativo de governança neste setor: o mercado a termo.

Role of the cellular prion protein in oligodendrocyte precursor cell proliferation and differentiation in the developing and adult mouse CNS

There are numerous studies describing the signaling mechanisms that mediate oligodendrocyte precursor cell (OPC) proliferation and differentiation, although the contribution of the cellular prion protein (PrPc) to this process remains unclear. PrPc is a glycosyl-phosphatidylinositol (GPI)-anchored glycoprotein involved in diverse cellular processes during the development and maturation of the mammalian central nervous system (CNS). Here we describe how PrPc influences oligodendrocyte proliferation in the developing and adult CNS. OPCs that lack PrPc proliferate more vigorously at the expense of a delay in differentiation, which correlates with changes in the expression of oligodendrocyte lineage markers. In addition, numerous NG2-positive cells were observed in cortical regions of adult PrPc knockout mice, although no significant changes in myelination can be seen, probably due to the death of surplus cells.

Diversity and genetic structure in natural populations of Hancornia speciosa var. speciosa Gomes in northeastern Brazil

Hancornia speciosa Gomes is a fruit tree native from Brazil that belongs to Apocinaceae family, and is popularly known as Mangabeira. Its fruits are widely consumed raw or processed as fruit jam, juices and ice creams, which have made it a target of intense exploitation. The extractive activities and intense human activity on the environment of natural occurrence of H. speciosa has caused genetic erosion in the species and little is known about the ecology or genetic structure of natural populations. The objective of this research was the evaluation of the genetic diversity and genetic structure of H. speciosa var. speciosa. The genetic variability was assessed using 11 allozyme loci with a sample of 164 individuals distributed in six natural populations located in the States of Pernambuco and Alagoas, Northeastern Brazil. The results showed a high level of genetic diversity within the species (e= 0.36) seeing that the most of the genetic variability of H. speciosa var. speciosa is within its natural populations with low difference among populations ( or = 0.081). The inbreeding values within ( = -0.555) and among populations ( =-0.428) were low showing lacking of endogamy and a surplus of heterozygotes. The estimated gene flow ( m ) was high, ranging from 2.20 to 13.18, indicating to be enough to prevent the effects of genetic drift and genetic differentiation among populations. The multivariate analyses indicated that there is a relationship between genetic and geographical distances, which was confirmed by a spatial pattern analysis using Mantel test (r = 0.3598; p = 0.0920) with 1000 random permutations. The high genetic diversity index in these populations indicates potential for in situ genetic conservation.

The proportional distribution in a cooperative model with external opportunities

[cat] En aquest article es considera un problema de cooperació entre agents on cada agent realitza una contribució (diners, capital, treball, esforç) per tal d'obtenir un benefici comú a repartir. El repartiment proporcional respecte a les contribucions és una distribució que pertany al nucli del joc cooperatiu associat. A partir d'aquest model bàsic s'introdueix un agent extern que pot realitzar una determinada aportació que serveix per avaluar el potencial benefici de cada subcoalició d'agents si aquest nou agent finalment entrés. Aquesta anàlisi pot produir que el poder relatiu dels agents hagi variat. en concret s'avalua si la distribució proporcional és encara robusta des del punt de vista de la seva pertinença al conjunt de negociació. Amb aquest objectiu, analitzem el problema utilitzant el model de joc cooperatius amb estructura de coalició. Donat que, en general, la distribució proporcional, no pertany al conjunt de negociació, s'estudia una condició suficient per a que així sigui. També enunciem una condició necessària, i finalment es proposa una condició suficient que garanteix que el repartiment proporcional és la única distribució existent dins del conjunt de negociació.

The proportional distribution in a cooperative model with external opportunities

[cat] En aquest article es considera un problema de cooperació entre agents on cada agent realitza una contribució (diners, capital, treball, esforç) per tal d'obtenir un benefici comú a repartir. El repartiment proporcional respecte a les contribucions és una distribució que pertany al nucli del joc cooperatiu associat. A partir d'aquest model bàsic s'introdueix un agent extern que pot realitzar una determinada aportació que serveix per avaluar el potencial benefici de cada subcoalició d'agents si aquest nou agent finalment entrés. Aquesta anàlisi pot produir que el poder relatiu dels agents hagi variat. en concret s'avalua si la distribució proporcional és encara robusta des del punt de vista de la seva pertinença al conjunt de negociació. Amb aquest objectiu, analitzem el problema utilitzant el model de joc cooperatius amb estructura de coalició. Donat que, en general, la distribució proporcional, no pertany al conjunt de negociació, s'estudia una condició suficient per a que així sigui. També enunciem una condició necessària, i finalment es proposa una condició suficient que garanteix que el repartiment proporcional és la única distribució existent dins del conjunt de negociació.

Produção integrada de Anonáceas no Brasil

Os conceitos técnicos e operacionais contidos na Produção Integrada (PI) vêm atender de forma direta às exigências dos órgãos nacionais e internacionais que fiscalizam o comércio de "commodities", dando ênfase à segurança e a qualidade dos alimentos produzidos e consumidos pela população. A garantia da produção de um alimento seguro e rastreável é alcançada mediante o esforço harmônico de todos os integrantes da cadeia produtiva. Esse sistema pressupõe o cumprimento das Normas Técnicas Específicas (NTE) para cada produto, permitindo o controle efetivo do sistema produtivo agropecuário por meio do monitoramento de todas as etapas na cadeia produtiva. Esse conceito teve início com o Manejo Integrado de Pragas (MIP) e, posteriormente, expandiu-se para uma visão holística, estruturada em quatro pilares de sustentação: organização da base produtiva; sustentabilidade do sistema; monitoramento dos processos; e formação de um banco de dados. Dentro desta visão, insere-se a Produção Integrada de Anonáceas, projeto iniciado em 2010, com apoio do CNPq/MAPA/EMBRAPA e instituições parceiras. As anonáceas representam um nome genérico para designar as plantas da família Annonaceae constituída por cerca de 120 gêneros e em torno de 2.300 espécies. No Brasil, estão registrados 29 gêneros, dentro dos quais cerca de 260 espécies. Entre as espécies de maior importância comercial, destacam-se a graviola (Annona muricata L.), pinha (Annona squamosa L., cherimólia (Annona cherimólia, Mill.) e a atemoia, hibrido de A. cherimólia e A. squamosa. Essas frutas têm alta aceitação pelo seu sabor e possibilidade de uso para consumo in natura, sucos e geleias. As áreas comercialmente cultivadas são concentradas nos Estados do Nordeste do Brasil. Os Estados de maior concentração: Bahia para graviola e pinha, Alagoas para pinha e São Paulo para atemoia. Os resultados de pesquisa envolvendo toda a cadeia produtiva dessas culturas são ainda muito preliminares, necessitando, portanto, de maior concentração nas áreas de melhoramento, controle de pragas e doenças, fisiologia da produção e pós-colheita.

Job Satisfaction of Spanish University Graduates

This paper investigates the determinants of job satisfaction of university graduates in Spain. We base our analysis on Locke"s discrepancy theory [Locke (1969)] and decompose subjective evaluation of job characteristics into surplus and deficit levels. We also study the importance of overeducation and over-skilling on job satisfaction. We use REFLEX data, a survey of university graduates. We conclude that job satisfaction is mostly determined by the subjective evaluation of intrinsic job characteristics, with an asymmetric impact of surpluses and deficits. Over-skilling is much more important than over-education in explaining the job satisfaction of university graduates, although the latter is also significant.

Effect of short-duration lipid supplementation on fat oxidation during exercise and cycling performance.

The effect of intramyocellular lipids (IMCLs) on endurance performance with high skeletal muscle glycogen availability remains unclear. Previous work has shown that a lipid-supplemented high-carbohydrate (CHO) diet increases IMCLs while permitting normal glycogen loading. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of fat supplementation on fat oxidation (Fox) and endurance performance. Twenty-two trained male cyclists performed 2 simulated time trials (TT) in a randomized crossover design. Subjects cycled at ∼53% maximal voluntary external power for 2 h and then followed 1 of 2 diets for 2.5 days: a high-CHO low-fat (HC) diet, consisting of CHO 7.4 g·kg(-1)·day(-1) and fat 0.5 g·kg(-1)·day(-1); or a high-CHO fat-supplemented (HCF) diet, which was a replication of the HC diet with ∼240 g surplus fat (30% saturation) distributed over the last 4 meals of the diet period. On trial morning, fasting blood was sampled and Fox was measured during an incremental exercise; a ∼1-h TT followed. Breath volatile compounds (VOCs) were measured at 3 time points. Mental fatigue, measured as reaction time, was evaluated during the TT. Plasma free fatty acid concentration was 50% lower after the HCF diet (p < 0.0001), and breath acetone was reduced (p < 0.05) "at rest". Fox peaked (∼0.35 g·kg(-1)) at ∼42% peak oxygen consumption, and was not influenced by diet. Performance was not significantly different between the HCF and HC diets (3369 ± 46 s vs 3398 ± 48 s; p = 0.39), nor were reaction times to the attention task and VOCs (p = NS for both). In conclusion, the short-term intake of a lipid supplement in combination with a glycogen-loading diet designed to boost intramyocellular lipids while avoiding fat adaptation did not alter substrate oxidation during exercise or 1-hour cycling performance.

Gestió dels residus alimentaris municipals procedents de les activitats comercials del municipi de Montmeló per tal de reduir, reutilitzar i reciclar-los

En el present treball es proposa com lluitar contra el malbaratament alimentari que es genera al llarg de tota la cadena alimentària, sent aquest degut a causa d'una planificació poc adequada. L'objectiu principal és planificar i implantar un sistema de gestió per tal de recuperar l'excedent alimentari que es genera als comerços i les indústries del municipi de Montmeló, elaborant així un protocol per tal de poder redistribuir aquest aliment als sectors de la població en situacions econòmiques més precàries. Com a objectius secundaris, es pretén conscienciar, fomentar i potenciar el treball en xarxa entre els diferents agents implicats, com ara: la ciutadania, les entitats socials (Càritas Parroquial Montmeló), sector privat (establiments alimentaris del municipi, mercat municipal, indústries del sector alimentari) i el sector públic (departament de serveis socials, medi ambient, comerç i brigada municipal). A l'hora de planificar i implantar un sistema de gestió per tal de recuperar l'excedent alimentari, s'ha analitzat i valorat el camí que hi realitza, des d'on es genera fins al beneficiari final. Aquest s'ha gestionat per etapes, en les que s'han identificat els generadors, el tipus i quantitat d'aliment que malbaraten. S'ha proposat un nou sistema de recollida d'informació i les pautes que han de seguir per garantir el bon estat de l'aliment com: una taula de conservació, un protocol de funcionament, un document d'entrega i una fitxa de control de les condicions d'higiene. Per tal d'assolir una bona coordinació entre totes les parts, s'han realitzat reunions conjuntes entre els generadors, serveis socials i Càritas on s'ha acabat signant un acord de col·laboració. Entre les conclusions més rellevants cal destacar que ha servit per establir un precedent d'aprofitament alimentari al municipi de Montmeló, aconseguint alimentar a un gran nombre de famílies amb greus problemes econòmics. A més s'ha arribat a disminuir la quantitat de residus generats, amb el conseqüent estalvi de recursos econòmics i materials on s'ha recuperat un total de 5.760 Kg d'aliments aptes pel consum.

Platform pricing and consumer foresight: The case of airports

Airports have become platforms that derive revenues from both aeronautical and commercial activities. The demand for these services is characterized by a one-way complementarity in that only air travelers can purchase retail goods at the airport terminals. We analyze a model of optimal airport behavior in which this one-way complementarity is subject to consumer foresight, i.e., consumers may not anticipate in full the ex post retail surplus when purchasing a flight ticket. An airport sets landing fees, and, in addition, also chooses the retail market structure by selecting the number of retail concessions to be awarded. We find that, with perfectly myopic consumers, the airport chooses to attract more passengers via low landing fees, and also sets the minimum possible number of retailers in order to increase the concessions’ revenues, from which it obtains the largest share of profits. However, even a very small amount of anticipation of the consumer surplus from retail activities changes significantly the airport’s choices: the optimal airport policy is dependent on the degree of differentiation in the retail market. When consumers instead have perfect foresight, the airport establishes a very competitive retail market, where consumers enjoy a large surplus. This attracts passengers and it is exploited by the airport by charging higher landing fees, which then constitute the largest share of its profits. Overall, the airport’s profits are maximal when consumers have perfect foresight. Keywords: two-sided markets, platform pricing, one-way demand complementarity, consumer foresight. JEL classification: L1, L2, L93.

Contribuições recentes da reação de hidroformilação na síntese de produtos farmacêuticos: parte II

The hydroformylation reaction represents one of the most important C1-chemistry area in the chemical industry. This catalytic process, which has been developed up to now mainly to the production of commodities chemicals, has shown a remarkable potential for the preparation of several categories of specialty chemicals and in particular pharmaceutical compounds. Arylpropanoic acids, various amines containing aryl groups, and intermediates for the preparation of vitamins, carbocyclic and heterocyclic compounds and many other classes of organic molecules endowed with pharmacological activity are currently accessible in good-to-high yields through hydroformylation of selected olefinic substrates. The asymmetric hydroformylation is going to reach the stage of maturity and hence to contribute in solving many troublesome synthetic problems connected with the preparation of pharmacologically active compounds with very high enantiomeric purity. The present survey emphasizes the usefulness of synthesis gas as a starting material in fine chemistry, which is expected to be important for industry.

Analysis of outliers in electricity spot prices with exampleof New England and New Zealand markets

Electricity spot prices have always been a demanding data set for time series analysis, mostly because of the non-storability of electricity. This feature, making electric power unlike the other commodities, causes outstanding price spikes. Moreover, the last several years in financial world seem to show that ’spiky’ behaviour of time series is no longer an exception, but rather a regular phenomenon. The purpose of this paper is to seek patterns and relations within electricity price outliers and verify how they affect the overall statistics of the data. For the study techniques like classical Box-Jenkins approach, series DFT smoothing and GARCH models are used. The results obtained for two geographically different price series show that patterns in outliers’ occurrence are not straightforward. Additionally, there seems to be no rule that would predict the appearance of a spike from volatility, while the reverse effect is quite prominent. It is concluded that spikes cannot be predicted based only on the price series; probably some geographical and meteorological variables need to be included in modeling.

Optimised Utilization of Bioenergy in Poland

The aim of the study was to ford out the availability of biomasses, which are available for energy production, in Poland. Biomasses which were examined were forest residues and surplus straw. Availability was examined by 16 Polish voivodeships, which are provinces in Poland. After fording out the amounts of biomasses for energy production was examined the need of biomass in the biggest CHP plants in Poland. It was expected that all the plants uses 15 % of biomass as the fuel. In the first parts of the report are explained the legislation which effects to biomass use in energy production in EU level and in Polish level. Also the combustion methods best for biomasses are explained by examples. After this, is studied the general situation of renewable energy use in Poland and the facts about the country. In the last parts it's explained the calculations and is shown the example cases. When it was found out the needs and supply of biomass it was examined by examples how it could be transported to the plants from the producers. Also was examined costs effected, if there were logistical terminals between the producer and the end user. The estimation was done by setting prices for the biomass, and fording out average costs for producing and transporting biomass. There are a lot of surplus biomasses in Poland which could be used for energy production, and this is a one way to reach the goals that EU has set of renewable energies. But because biomasses doesn't have such a good calorific value, it isn't worth able to transport it very long distances. In the research was set the prices for producer 9€/MWh and for end user 15€/MWh, the maximum transportation distance for forest residues was 52 km and for straw 56 km. These are example estimations and it has to be remembered that there are a lot of factors that makes inaccurate. The model is really sensitive and by changing one parameter the results change a lot.

Pk-yritysten rahoituspalveluiden kehittäminen Varkauden talousalueella

Tässä tutkimuksessa selvitettiin Varkauden talousalueen pk-yritysten rahoituspalveluiden kehitystarpeita. Kuvailevaa tutkimusta käyttämällä selvitettiin mitä ongelmakohtia yritykset näkevät rahaliikenteessään, miten rahoitusrakennetta suunnitellaan ja minkälaisia tuotteita yrityksillä on käytössään. Mittareina tutkimuksessa käytettiin mm. kasvutavoitetta, pääomarakennetta ja tuottovaatimusten muodostamista. Tavoitteena oli tutkia mitkä tekijät vaikuttavat sijoituspäätöksentekoon ja mitä tekijöitä arvostetaan pankista saadussa palvelussa. Tutkimukseen valittiin Varkauden talousalueen suurimmat ja parhaan luottoluokituksen omaavat yritykset. Aineisto kerättiin luomalla sähköinen kyselylomake, joka lähetettiin 48 yritykseen tammikuussa 2009. Tutkimustulosten mukaan yritykset näkivät suurimmat kehitystarpeet sähköisessä taloushallinnossa, eri investointirahoitusvaihtoehdoissa ja julkisten sekä yksityisten rahoittajien yhteistyössä. Parempaa rahoitusneuvontaa kaivattiin investointirahoitukseen ja yrityskauppoihin liittyen. Suurimmalla osalla yrityksistä oli selkeät kasvutavoitteet sekä suunniteltu pääomarakenne. Suurimpia puutteita havaittiin mm. korkosuojaus- ja kassanhallinnan ratkaisuissa. Varainhoidon tuotteista mielenkiintoisimpana nähtiin pääomaturvatut ja kiinteää tuottoa maksavat vaihtoehdot. Sijoituspäätöksiin vaikuttavat paljon pankin luotettavuus sekä toimihenkilön asiantuntemus. Vastaavasti sijoituspäätös voi jäädä tekemättä, mikäli tuote on liian monimutkainen tai prosessi vaatii paljon aikaa ja paneutumista. Pankin palveluissa arvostetaan niin ikään luotettavuutta, helppoa asiointia sekä henkilökohtaista palvelua. Vastaajien koulutustaustalla ei näytä valittujen mittareiden perusteella olevan vaikutusta rahoitusosaamiseen. Alueella rahoitusongelmia kohdanneista yrityksistä lähes kaikki olivat kasvuhakuisia.