Bias correction in a multivariate normal regression model with general parameterization

This paper derives the second-order biases Of maximum likelihood estimates from a multivariate normal model where the mean vector and the covariance matrix have parameters in common. We show that the second order bias can always be obtained by means of ordinary weighted least-squares regressions. We conduct simulation studies which indicate that the bias correction scheme yields nearly unbiased estimators. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bounded solutions of fermions in the background of mixed vector-scalar inversely linear potentials

The problem of a fermion subject to a general mixing of vector and scalar potentials in a two-dimensional world is mapped into a Sturm-Liouville problem. Isolated bounded solutions are also searched. For the specific case of an inversely linear potential, which gives rise to an effective Kratzer potential in the Sturm-Liouville problem, exact bounded solutions are found in closed form. The case of a pure scalar potential with their isolated zero-energy solutions, already analyzed in a previous work, is obtained as a particular case. The behavior of the upper and lower components of the Dirac spinor is discussed in detail and some unusual results are revealed. The nonrelativistic limit of our results adds a new support to the conclusion that even-parity solutions to the nonrelativistic one-dimensional hydrogen atom do not exist. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Klein-Gordon particles in mixed vector-scalar inversely linear potentials

The problem of a spinless particle subject to a general mixing of vector and scalar inversely linear potentials in a two-dimensional world is analyzed. Exact bounded solutions are found in closed form by imposing boundary conditions on the eigenfunctions which ensure that the effective Hamiltonian is Hermitian for all the points of the space. The nonrelativistic limit of our results adds a new support to the conclusion that even-parity solutions to the nonrelativistic one-dimensional hydrogen atom do not exist. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Habitat suitability of Anopheles vector species and association with human malaria in the Atlantic Forest in south-eastern brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the health sector In Jamaica

Climate change is a naturally occurring phenomenon in which the earth‘s climate goes through cycles of warming and cooling; these changes usually take place incrementally over millennia. Over the past century, there has been an anomalous increase in global temperature, giving rise to accelerated climate change. It is widely accepted that greenhouse gas emissions from human activities such as industries have contributed significantly to the increase in global temperatures. The existence and survival of all living organisms is predicated on the ability of the environment in which they live not only to provide conditions for their basic needs but also conditions suitable for growth and reproduction. Unabated climate change threatens the existence of biophysical and ecological systems on a planetary scale. The present study aims to examine the economic impact of climate change on health in Jamaica over the period 2011-2050. To this end, three disease conditions with known climate sensitivity and importance to Jamaican public health were modelled. These were: dengue fever, leptospirosis and gastroenteritis in children under age 5. Historical prevalence data on these diseases were obtained from the Ministry of Health Jamaica, the Caribbean Epidemiology Centre, the Climate Studies Group Mona, University of the West Indies Mona campus, and the Meteorological Service of Jamaica. Data obtained spanned a twelve-year period of 1995-2007. Monthly data were obtained for dengue and gastroenteritis, while for leptospirosis, the annual number of cases for 1995-2005 was utilized. The two SRES emission scenarios chosen were A2 and B2 using the European Centre Hamburg Model (ECHAM) global climate model to predict climate variables for these scenarios. A business as usual (BAU) scenario was developed using historical disease data for the period 2000-2009 (dengue fever and gastroenteritis) and 1995-2005 (leptospirosis) as the reference decades for the respective diseases. The BAU scenario examined the occurrence of the diseases in the absence of climate change. It assumed that the disease trend would remain unchanged over the projected period and the number of cases of disease for each decade would be the same as the reference decade. The model used in the present study utilized predictive empirical statistical modelling to extrapolate the climate/disease relationship in time, to estimate the number of climate change-related cases under future climate change scenarios. The study used a Poisson regression model that considered seasonality and lag effects to determine the best-fit model in relation to the diseases under consideration. Zhang and others (2008), in their review of climate change and the transmission of vector-borne diseases, found that: ―Besides climatic variables, few of them have included other factors that can affect the transmission of vector-borne disease….‖ (Zhang 2008) Water, sanitation and health expenditure are key determinants of health. In the draft of the second communication to IPCC, Jamaica noted the vulnerability of public health to climate change, including sanitation and access to water (MSJ/UNDP, 2009). Sanitation, which in its broadest context includes the removal of waste (excreta, solid, or other hazardous waste), is a predictor of vector-borne diseases (e.g. dengue fever), diarrhoeal diseases (such as gastroenteritis) and zoonoses (such as leptospirosis). In conceptualizing the model, an attempt was made to include non-climate predictors of these climate-sensitive diseases. The importance of sanitation and water access to the control of dengue, gastroenteritis and leptospirosis were included in the Poisson regression model. The Poisson regression model obtained was then used to predict the number of disease cases into the future (2011-2050) for each emission scenario. After projecting the number of cases, the cost associated with each scenario was calculated using four cost components. 1. Treatment cost morbidity estimate. The treatment cost for the number of cases was calculated using reference values found in the literature for each condition. The figures were derived from studies of the cost of treatment and represent ambulatory and non-fatal hospitalized care for dengue fever and gastroenteritis. Due to the paucity of published literature on the health care cost associated with leptospirosis, only the cost of diagnosis and antibiotic therapy were included in the calculation. 2. Mortality estimates. Mortality estimates are recorded as case fatality rates. Where local data were available, these were utilized. Where these were unavailable, appropriate reference values from the literature were used. 3. Productivity loss. Productivity loss was calculated using a human capital approach, by multiplying the expected number of productive days lost by the caregiver and/or the infected person, by GDP per capita per day (US$ 14) at 2008 GDP using 2008 US$ exchange rates. 4. No-option cost. The no-option cost refers to adaptation strategies for the control of dengue fever which are ongoing and already a part of the core functions of the Vector Control Division of the Ministry of Health, Jamaica. An estimated US$ 2.1 million is utilized each year in conducting activities to prevent the post-hurricane spread of vector borne diseases and diarrhoea. The cost includes public education, fogging, laboratory support, larvicidal activities and surveillance. This no-option cost was converted to per capita estimates, using population estimates for Jamaica up to 2050 obtained from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN, 2006) and the assumption of one expected major hurricane per decade. During the decade 2000-2009, Jamaica had an average inflation of 10.4% (CIA Fact book, last updated May 2011). This average decadal inflation rate was applied to the no-option cost, which was inflated by 10% for each successive decade to adjust for changes in inflation over time.

Social support and common mental disorder among medical students

INTRODUÇÃO:Diferentes formas de sofrimento psíquico têm sido identificadas em estudantes da área da saúde, em especial no curso de Medicina.OBJETIVO:Estimar a prevalência de sofrimento psíquico entre estudantes de Medicina em uma faculdade no Sudeste do Brasil e avaliar sua associação com apoio social.MÉTODO:Trata-se de um estudo transversal. Foram aplicados questionários para alunos do 1º ao 6º ano do curso de Medicina da Universidade Estadual Paulista Júlio de Mesquita Filho, investigando-se características demográficas relacionadas ao curso e à adaptação à cidade. Sofrimento psíquico foi investigado na forma de Transtorno Mental Comum (TMC), avaliado por meio do Self-Reporting Questionnaire (SRQ-20). Apoio social foi avaliado com a Escala de Apoio Social (EAS). As associações entre o desfecho e as variáveis explanatórias foram analisadas por meio do teste do χ2 e, na análise multivariada, por meio da Regressão Logística, com p < 0,05.RESULTADOS:A taxa de resposta foi de 80,7%, não havendo diferença estatística entre a mostra e a população-alvo no que diz respeito ao gênero (p = 0,78). A média de idade foi de 22 anos (desvio padrão - DP = 2,2) com predomínio de mulheres (58,2%) e estudantes que vivem com amigos (62%). A prevalência de TMC foi de 44,9% (IC95% 40,2 - 49,6). Após a análise multivariada, mantiveram-se associados a TMC: sentir-se rejeitado no último ano (p < 0,001), ter pensado ou pensar em abandonar o curso (p < 0,001) e interação, avaliada pela EAS (p = 0,002).CONCLUSÕES:A prevalência de TMC entre estudantes de Medicina mostrou-se elevada, identificando-se o apoio social insuficiente como fator de risco. Esses achados sugerem que intervenções voltadas para propiciar melhores condições de interação social entre estudantes poderiam ser benéficas, diminuindo a prevalência de TMC nesse grupo.

Genotype x environment interaction for age at first calving, scrotal circumference, and yearling weight in Nellore cattle using reaction norms in multitrait random regression models

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

GIS-based analytical tools for transport planning: spatial regression models for transportation demand forecast

Considering the importance of spatial issues in transport planning, the main objective of this study was to analyze the results obtained from different approaches of spatial regression models. In the case of spatial autocorrelation, spatial dependence patterns should be incorporated in the models, since that dependence may affect the predictive power of these models. The results obtained with the spatial regression models were also compared with the results of a multiple linear regression model that is typically used in trips generation estimations. The findings support the hypothesis that the inclusion of spatial effects in regression models is important, since the best results were obtained with alternative models (spatial regression models or the ones with spatial variables included). This was observed in a case study carried out in the city of Porto Alegre, in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, in the stages of specification and calibration of the models, with two distinct datasets.

Amazonian malaria: Asymptomatic human reservoirs, diagnostic challenges, environmentally driven changes in mosquito vector populations, and the mandate for sustainable control strategies

Across the Americas and the Caribbean, nearly 561,000 slide-confirmed malaria infections were reported officially in 2008. The nine Amazonian countries accounted for 89% of these infections; Brazil and Peru alone contributed 56% and 7% of them, respectively. Local populations of the relatively neglected parasite Plasmodium vivax, which currently accounts for 77% of the regional malaria burden, are extremely diverse genetically and geographically structured. At a time when malaria elimination is placed on the public health agenda of several endemic countries, it remains unclear why malaria proved so difficult to control in areas of relatively low levels of transmission such as the Amazon Basin. We hypothesize that asymptomatic parasite carriage and massive environmental changes that affect vector abundance and behavior are major contributors to malaria transmission in epidemiologically diverse areas across the Amazon Basin. Here we review available data supporting this hypothesis and discuss their implications for current and future malaria intervention policies in the region. Given that locally generated scientific evidence is urgently required to support malaria control interventions in Amazonia, we briefly describe the aims of our current field-oriented malaria research in rural villages and gold-mining enclaves in Peru and a recently opened agricultural settlement in Brazil. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Accuracy of positron emission tomography/computed tomography and clinical assessment in the detection of complete rectal tumor regression after neoadjuvant chemoradiation Long-Term Results of a Prospective Trial (National Clinical Trial 00254683)

BACKGROUND: Neoadjuvant chemoradiation (CRT) therapy may result in significant tumor regression in patients with rectal cancer. Patients who develop complete tumor regression have been managed by treatment strategies that are alternatives to standard total mesorectal excision. Therefore, assessment of tumor response with positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) after neoadjuvant treatment may offer relevant information for the selection of patients to receive alternative treatment strategies. METHODS: Patients with clinical T2 (cT2) through cT4NxM0 rectal adenocarcinoma were included prospectively. Neoadjuvant therapy consisted of 54 grays of radiation and 5-fluorouracil-based chemotherapy. Baseline PET/CT studies were obtained before CRT followed by PET/CT studies at 6 weeks and 12 weeks after the completion of CRT. Clinical assessment was performed at 12 weeks after CRT completion. PET/CT results were compared with clinical and pathologic data. RESULTS: In total, 99 patients were included in the study. Twenty-three patients were complete responders (16 had a complete clinical response, and 7 had a complete pathologic response). The PET/CT response evaluation at 12 weeks indicated that 18 patients had a complete response, and 81 patients had an incomplete response. There were 5 false-negative and 10 false-positive PET/CT results. PET/CT for the detection of residual cancer had 93% sensitivity, 53% specificity, a 73% negative predictive value, an 87% positive predictive value, and 85% accuracy. Clinical assessment alone resulted in an accuracy of 91%. PET/CT information may have detected misdiagnoses made by clinical assessment alone, improving overall accuracy to 96%. CONCLUSIONS: Assessment of tumor response at 12 weeks after CRT completion with PET/CT imaging may provide a useful additional tool with good overall accuracy for the selection of patients who may avoid unnecessary radical resection after achieving a complete clinical response. Cancer 2012;35013511. (C) 2011 American Cancer Society.

Trypanosoma (Megatrypanum) melophagium in the Sheep Ked Melophagus ovinus from Organic Farms in Croatia: Phylogenetic Inferences Support Restriction to Sheep and Sheep Keds and Close Relationship with Trypanosomes from Other Ruminant Species

Trypanosoma (Megatrypanum) melophagium is a parasite of sheep transmitted by sheep keds, the sheep-restricted ectoparasite Melophagus ovinus (Diptera: Hippoboscidae). Sheep keds were 100% prevalent in sheep from five organic farms in Croatia, Southeastern Europe, whereas trypanosomes morphologically compatible with T. melophagium were 86% prevalent in the guts of the sheep keds. Multilocus phylogenetic analyses using sequences of small subunit rRNA, glycosomal glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase, spliced leader, and internal transcribed spacer 1 of the rDNA distinguished T. melophagium from all allied trypanosomes from other ruminant species and placed the trypanosome in the subgenus Megatrypanum. Trypanosomes from sheep keds from Croatia and Scotland, the only available isolates for comparison, shared identical sequences. All biologic and phylogenetic inferences support the restriction of T. melophagium to sheep and, especially, to the sheep keds. The comparison of trypanosomes from sheep, cattle, and deer from the same country, which was never achieved before this work, strongly supported the host-restricted specificity of trypanosomes of the subgenus Megatrypanum. Our findings indicate that with the expansion of organic farms, both sheep keds and T. melophagium may re-emerge as parasitic infections of sheep.

Predictors of depressed mood 12 months after injury. Contribution of self-efficacy and social support

Abstract Purpose: There is evidence that depressed mood and perception of pain are related in patients with chronic illness. However, how individual resources such as self-efficacy and social support play a role in this association remains unclear. The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of both variables as either moderator or mediator. Method: In a longitudinal study, 274 injured workers (M = 43.24 years) were investigated. Data were collected on sociodemographics, depressed mood, pain, social support, and self-efficacy at three months post-injury, and depressed mood one year post-injury. Results: Hierarchical multiple linear regression analyses revealed that pain (β = 0.14; p < 0.01) and social support (β = -0.18; p < 0.001) were significant predictors of depressed mood. Self-efficacy moderated the relationship of pain (β = -0.12; p < 0.05) and depressed mood after one year. Lower self-efficacy in combination with pain had a stronger impact than higher self-efficacy and pain on depressed mood. Social support did not moderate the association. Conclusions: Self-efficacy for managing pain is important in the development of depressed mood. According to the results of this study, we suggest that the detection of low social support and low self-efficacy might be important in long-term rehabilitation process. Implications for Rehabilitation Risk for depressed mood one year after an accident is high: One in five workers report depressed mood. Protective factors for depressed mood in injured workers needs to be considered in the rehabilitation. Focusing on resources like social support and self-efficacy could be protective against depressed mood. The early detection of low social support and low self-efficacy might be important in long-term rehabilitation processes

Adult parent-child relationships: Relationship quality, support, and reciprocity

In accordance with Bengtson's model of intergenerational solidarity (e.g. Bengtson & Roberts, 1991), the interrelations between adult daughters' family values, their perception of the relationship quality with their parents, the support they reported to give to and to receive from their parents, and their perception of reciprocity in intergenerational support exchange were investigated for N = 265 middle-aged women in Germany. It was also asked whether the support given to parents and perceived reciprocity are related to daughters' felt burden as a result of their support. Cross-sectional, self-report data were examined with multiple and multinomial logistic regression analyses. The analyses revealed positive relations between family values, relationship quality, and support to parents. Perceived reciprocity was associated with the exchange of intergenerational support and imbalance in support had negative effects on the relationship quality. Felt burden was predicted by the extent of support and the perceived reciprocity. However, specific correlational patterns depending on the kind of support as well as differences in the importance of mother and father occurred. The findings are discussed against the background of the meaning of family obligations and reciprocity in a Western culture.

Time-Series Panel Analysis (TSPA): Multivariate Modeling of Temporal Associations in Psychotherapy Process.

Objective: Processes occurring in the course of psychotherapy are characterized by the simple fact that they unfold in time and that the multiple factors engaged in change processes vary highly between individuals (idiographic phenomena). Previous research, however, has neglected the temporal perspective by its traditional focus on static phenomena, which were mainly assessed at the group level (nomothetic phenomena). To support a temporal approach, the authors introduce time-series panel analysis (TSPA), a statistical methodology explicitly focusing on the quantification of temporal, session-to-session aspects of change in psychotherapy. TSPA-models are initially built at the level of individuals and are subsequently aggregated at the group level, thus allowing the exploration of prototypical models. Method: TSPA is based on vector auto-regression (VAR), an extension of univariate auto-regression models to multivariate time-series data. The application of TSPA is demonstrated in a sample of 87 outpatient psychotherapy patients who were monitored by postsession questionnaires. Prototypical mechanisms of change were derived from the aggregation of individual multivariate models of psychotherapy process. In a 2nd step, the associations between mechanisms of change (TSPA) and pre- to postsymptom change were explored. Results: TSPA allowed a prototypical process pattern to be identified, where patient's alliance and self-efficacy were linked by a temporal feedback-loop. Furthermore, therapist's stability over time in both mastery and clarification interventions was positively associated with better outcomes. Conclusions: TSPA is a statistical tool that sheds new light on temporal mechanisms of change. Through this approach, clinicians may gain insight into prototypical patterns of change in psychotherapy.