Integrative analysis of chemo-transcriptomic profiles for drug-feature specific gene expression signatures

One of the major challenges in systems biology is to understand the complex responses of a biological system to external perturbations or internal signalling depending on its biological conditions. Genome-wide transcriptomic profiling of cellular systems under various chemical perturbations allows the manifestation of certain features of the chemicals through their transcriptomic expression profiles. The insights obtained may help to establish the connections between human diseases, associated genes and therapeutic drugs. The main objective of this study was to systematically analyse cellular gene expression data under various drug treatments to elucidate drug-feature specific transcriptomic signatures. We first extracted drug-related information (drug features) from the collected textual description of DrugBank entries using text-mining techniques. A novel statistical method employing orthogonal least square learning was proposed to obtain drug-feature-specific signatures by integrating gene expression with DrugBank data. To obtain robust signatures from noisy input datasets, a stringent ensemble approach was applied with the combination of three techniques: resampling, leave-one-out cross validation, and aggregation. The validation experiments showed that the proposed method has the capacity of extracting biologically meaningful drug-feature-specific gene expression signatures. It was also shown that most of signature genes are connected with common hub genes by regulatory network analysis. The common hub genes were further shown to be related to general drug metabolism by Gene Ontology analysis. Each set of genes has relatively few interactions with other sets, indicating the modular nature of each signature and its drug-feature-specificity. Based on Gene Ontology analysis, we also found that each set of drug feature (DF)-specific genes were indeed enriched in biological processes related to the drug feature. The results of these experiments demonstrated the pot- ntial of the method for predicting certain features of new drugs using their transcriptomic profiles, providing a useful methodological framework and a valuable resource for drug development and characterization.

“Paths for Action”: Leadership Theory and Practice in Complex Public Sector Systems

The nature and challenges of public sector leadership and management are examined in four case studies of project management in complex metropolitan environments. The cases selected by the authors as representative of contextual factors affecting decision-making processes and project outcomes. Drawing on recent theoretical work on complex leadership approaches (Uhl-Bein et al 2007, Hazy 2008, Lichtenstein & Plowman 2009), the authors assess leadership practices enacted and the circumstances that influence these practices. Leadership types theorized by Uhl-Bein et al (2007) are identified operating at different levels and across networks, with contextual factors outlined. The article concludes with a framework for leadership practice and management identifying network facilitation and complexity friendly tools as a practice within complex public sector systems.

A realistic evaluation of Early Warning Systems and acute care training in Northern Ireland: findings and recommendations

Statement of purpose The purpose of this concurrent session is to present the main findings and recommendations from a five year study evaluating the implementation of Early Warning Systems (EWS) and the Acute Life-threatening Events: Recognition and Treatment (ALERT) course in Northern Ireland. The presentation will provide delegates with an understanding of those factors that enable and constrain successful implementation of EWS and ALERT in practice in order to provide an impetus for change. Methods The research design was a multiple case study approach of four wards in two hospitals in Northern Ireland. It followed the principles of realist evaluation research which allowed empirical data to be gathered to test and refine RRS programme theory [1]. The stages included identifying the programme theories underpinning EWS and ALERT, generating hypotheses, gathering empirical evidence and refining the programme theories. This approach used a variety of mixed methods including individual and focus group interviews, observation and documentary analysis of EWS compliance data and ALERT training records. A within and across case comparison facilitated the development of mid-range theories from the research evidence. Results The official RRS theories developed from the realist synthesis were critically evaluated and compared with the study findings to develop a mid-range theory to explain what works, for whom in what circumstances. The findings of what works suggests that clinical experience, established working relationships, flexible implementation of protocols, ongoing experiential learning, empowerment and pre-emptive management are key to the success of EWS and ALERT implementation. Each concept is presented as ‘context, mechanism and outcome configurations’ to provide an understanding of how the context impacts on individual reasoning or behaviour to produce certain outcomes. Conclusion These findings highlight the combination of factors that can improve the implementation and sustainability of EWS and ALERT and in light of this evidence several recommendations are made to provide policymakers with guidance and direction for future policy development. References: 1. Pawson R and Tilley N. (1997) Realistic Evaluation. Sage Publications; London Type of submission: Concurrent session Source of funding: Sandra Ryan Fellowship funded by the School of Nursing & Midwifery, Queen’s University of Belfast

Early warning systems: problems, pragmatics and potential

Symposium Chair: Dr Jennifer McGaughey

Title: Early Warning Systems: problems, pragmatics and potential

Early Warning Systems (EWS) provide a mechanism for staff to recognise, refer and manage deteriorating patients on general hospital wards. Implementation of EWS in practice has required considerable change in the delivery of critical care across hospitals. Drawing their experience of these changes the authors will demonstrate the problems and potential of using EWS to improve patient outcomes.

The first paper (Dr Jennifer McGaughey: Early Warning Systems: what works?) reviews the research evidence regarding the factors that support or constrain the implementation of Early Warning System (EWS) in practice. These findings explain those processes which impact on the successful achievement of patient outcomes. In order to improve detection and standardise practice National EWS have been implemented in the United Kingdom. The second paper (Catherine Plowright: The implementation of the National EWS in a District General Hospital) focuses on the process of implementing and auditing a National EWS. This process improvement is essential to contribute to future collaborative research and collection of robust datasets to improve patient safety as recommended by the Royal College of Physicians (RCP 2012). To successfully implement NEWS in practice requires strategic planning and staff education. The practical issues of training staff is discussed in the third paper. This paper (Collette Laws-Chapman: Simulation as a modality to embed the use of Early Warning Systems) focuses on using simulation and structured debrief to enhance learning in the early recognition and management of deteriorating patients. This session emphasises the importance of cognitive and social skills developed alongside practical skills in the simulated setting.

Exploiting Human Resource Requirements to Infer Human Movement Patterns for Use in Modelling Disease Transmission Systems: An Example from Eastern Province, Zambia

In this research, an agent-based model (ABM) was developed to generate human movement routes between homes and water resources in a rural setting, given commonly available geospatial datasets on population distribution, land cover and landscape resources. ABMs are an object-oriented computational approach to modelling a system, focusing on the interactions of autonomous agents, and aiming to assess the impact of these agents and their interactions on the system as a whole. An A* pathfinding algorithm was implemented to produce walking routes, given data on the terrain in the area. A* is an extension of Dijkstra's algorithm with an enhanced time performance through the use of heuristics. In this example, it was possible to impute daily activity movement patterns to the water resource for all villages in a 75 km long study transect across the Luangwa Valley, Zambia, and the simulated human movements were statistically similar to empirical observations on travel times to the water resource (Chi-squared, 95% confidence interval). This indicates that it is possible to produce realistic data regarding human movements without costly measurement as is commonly achieved, for example, through GPS, or retrospective or real-time diaries. The approach is transferable between different geographical locations, and the product can be useful in providing an insight into human movement patterns, and therefore has use in many human exposure-related applications, specifically epidemiological research in rural areas, where spatial heterogeneity in the disease landscape, and space-time proximity of individuals, can play a crucial role in disease spread.

Outlier SNP markers reveal fine-scale genetic structuring across European hake populations (Merluccius merluccius)

Shallow population structure is generally reported for most marine fish and explained as a consequence of high dispersal, connectivity and large population size. Targeted gene analyses and more recently genome-wide studies have challenged such view, suggesting that adaptive divergence might occur even when neutral markers provide genetic homogeneity across populations. Here, 381 SNPs located in transcribed regions were used to assess large- and fine-scale population structure in the European hake (Merluccius merluccius), a widely distributed demersal species of high priority for the European fishery. Analysis of 850 individuals from 19 locations across the entire distribution range showed evidence for several outlier loci, with significantly higher resolving power. While 299 putatively neutral SNPs confirmed the genetic break between basins (F(CT) = 0.016) and weak differentiation within basins, outlier loci revealed a dramatic divergence between Atlantic and Mediterranean populations (F(CT) range 0.275-0.705) and fine-scale significant population structure. Outlier loci separated North Sea and Northern Portugal populations from all other Atlantic samples and revealed a strong differentiation among Western, Central and Eastern Mediterranean geographical samples. Significant correlation of allele frequencies at outlier loci with seawater surface temperature and salinity supported the hypothesis that populations might be adapted to local conditions. Such evidence highlights the importance of integrating information from neutral and adaptive evolutionary patterns towards a better assessment of genetic diversity. Accordingly, the generated outlier SNP data could be used for tackling illegal practices in hake fishing and commercialization as well as to develop explicit spatial models for defining management units and stock boundaries.

Free-roaming dogs control activities in one Italian province (2000-2013): Is the implemented approach effective?

In Italy, standards for the management of free-roaming dogs (FRDs) are defined by regional norms, generating a high variability of approaches around the country. Despite efforts carried out by the competent authorities, FRDs are still a reality impacting upon animal health and welfare and public costs. A similar scenario can be found in many other Mediterranean and Balkan counties. Here we present 14 years of data (2000–2013) retrieved from the admission dog registry of a public shelter (PS) responsible for the collection of stray dogs from one Italian province. The aim of this retrospective study was to describe the local FRD population, identifying its source and to evaluate the effectiveness of the actions implemented by the local authorities. In the investigated period, 7,475 dogs were admitted to the PS. Despite the intense sterilisation plan (mean 381.7 sterilisations per year), the overall number of dogs entering PS did not decrease consistently across the years. Results highlighted a lack of responsibility of owners by failing to sterilise and identify their dogs and allowing intact animals to roam free, therefore producing uncontrolled and unwanted litters. The current dog population management strategy, based on both sheltering and capture-neuter-release programmes, is insufficient to tackle the straying phenomenon. Educational and sterilisation programmes should be an integral part of a successfully implemented FRD control plan. Our results provide further insight on free-roaming dog population dynamics and control systems, and may have important implications for many other local contexts across Europe trying to overcome the straying phenomenon.

Improving E-Assessment Systems With A focus On Adaptive Feedback And Marking

Institutions involved in the provision of tertiary education across Europe are feeling the pinch. European universities, and other higher education (HE) institutions, must operate in a climate where the pressure of government spending cuts (Garben, 2012) is in stark juxtaposition to the EU’s strategy to drive forward and maintain a growth of student numbers in the sector (eurostat, 2015).

In order to remain competitive, universities and HE institutions are making ever-greater use of electronic assessment (E-Assessment) systems (Chatzigavriil et all, 2015; Ferrell, 2012). These systems are attractive primarily because they offer a cost-effect and scalable approach for assessment. In addition to scalability, they also offer reliability, consistency and impartiality; furthermore, from the perspective of a student they are most popular because they can offer instant feedback (Walet, 2012).

There are disadvantages, though.

First, feedback is often returned to a student immediately on competition of their assessment. While it is possible to disable the instant feedback option (this is often the case during an end of semester exam period when assessment scores must be can be ratified before release), however, this option tends to be a global ‘all on’ or ‘all off’ configuration option which is controlled centrally rather than configurable on a per-assessment basis.

If a formative in-term assessment is to be taken by multiple groups of
students, each at different times, this restriction means that answers to each question will be disclosed to the first group of students undertaking the assessment. As soon as the answers are released “into the wild” the academic integrity of the assessment is lost for subsequent student groups.

Second, the style of feedback provided to a student for each question is often limited to a simple ‘correct’ or ‘incorrect’ indicator. While this type of feedback has its place, it often does not provide a student with enough insight to improve their understanding of a topic that they did not answer correctly.

Most E-Assessment systems boast a wide range of question types including Multiple Choice, Multiple Response, Free Text Entry/Text Matching and Numerical questions. The design of these types of questions is often quite restrictive and formulaic, which has a knock-on effect on the quality of feedback that can be provided in each case.

Multiple Choice Questions (MCQs) are most prevalent as they are the most prescriptive and therefore most the straightforward to mark consistently. They are also the most amenable question types, which allow easy provision of meaningful, relevant feedback to each possible outcome chosen.
Text matching questions tend to be more problematic due to their free text entry nature. Common misspellings or case-sensitivity errors can often be accounted for by the software but they are by no means fool proof, as it is very difficult to predict in advance the range of possible variations on an answer that would be considered worthy of marks by a manual marker of a paper based equivalent of the same question.

Numerical questions are similarly restricted. An answer can be checked for accuracy or whether it is within a certain range of the correct answer, but unless it is a special purpose-built mathematical E-Assessment system the system is unlikely to have computational capability and so cannot, for example, account for “method marks” which are commonly awarded in paper-based marking.

From a pedagogical perspective, the importance of providing useful formative feedback to students at a point in their learning when they can benefit from the feedback and put it to use must not be understated (Grieve et all, 2015; Ferrell, 2012).

In this work, we propose a number of software-based solutions, which will overcome the limitations and inflexibilities of existing E-Assessment systems.

The Rossiter-McLaughlin effect reloaded: Probing the 3D spin-orbit geometry, differential stellar rotation, and the spatially-resolved stellar spectrum of star-planet systems

When a planet transits its host star, it blocks regions of the stellar surface from view; this causes a distortion of the spectral lines and a change in the line-of-sight (LOS) velocities, known as the Rossiter-McLaughlin (RM) effect. Since the LOS velocities depend, in part, on the stellar rotation, the RM waveform is sensitive to the star-planet alignment (which provides information on the system’s dynamical history). We present a new RM modelling technique that directly measures the spatially-resolved stellar spectrum behind the planet. This is done by scaling the continuum flux of the (HARPS) spectra by the transit light curve, and then subtracting the infrom the out-of-transit spectra to isolate the starlight behind the planet. This technique does not assume any shape for the intrinsic local profiles. In it, we also allow for differential stellar rotation and centre-to-limb variations in the convective blueshift. We apply this technique to HD 189733 and compare to 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations. We reject rigid body rotation with high confidence (>99% probability), which allows us to determine the occulted stellar latitudes and measure the stellar inclination. In turn, we determine both the sky-projected (λ ≈ −0.4 ± 0.2◦) and true 3D obliquity (ψ ≈ 7+12 −4 ◦ ). We also find good agreement with the MHD simulations, with no significant centre-to-limb variations detectable in the local profiles. Hence, this technique provides a new powerful tool that can probe stellar photospheres, differential rotation, determine 3D obliquities, and remove sky-projection biases in planet migration theories. This technique can be implemented with existing instrumentation, but will become even more powerful with the next generation of high-precision radial velocity spectrographs.

The use of biomarkers to diagnose the ecological impact of pollutants in Mediterranean rivers

Um assunto que requer atenção é a avaliação ecológica da qualidade da água de ecossistemas de água doce. Uma abordagem que surge como promissora é a biomonitorização baseada em biomarcadores, porque pode avaliar a saúde dos organismos e obter sinais de alerta precoce acerca dos riscos ambientais. Até agora, porém, o uso de biomarcadores em espécies de invertebrados, para diagnosticar danos ecológicos nos rios, é escasso. Por essa razão, existe uma necessidade urgente de desenvolver biomarcadores nas principais espécies de macroinvertebrados dos ecossistemas fluviais que são alvo de estudo. Esta tese tem como objectivo averiguar se as respostas in situ, aliadas aos biomarcadores, podem ser um método viável para avaliar os danos ecológicos de contaminantes em ecossistemas de água doce. Numa primeira fase, os biomarcadores foram usados para averiguar os mecanismos fisiológicos de adaptação genética de clones de Daphnia magna ao pesticida organofosforado fenitrothion. Numa segunda fase, os biomarcadores foram usados como ferramentas de diagnóstico de poluição em zonas ribeirinhas. Estes estudos foram realizados com três espécies-chave de macroinvertebrados: Daphnia magna, Corbicula fluminea e Hydropsyche exocellata, nos rios Besós e Llobregat e no Delta do rio Ebro (NE Espanha). Além disso, foram realizados com animais capturados nos rios, ou com ensaios de transplantes, e foram complementados com índices biológicos de macroinvertebrados e análises químicas da água e dos animais. Como os contaminantes químicos têm vários modos toxicológicos de acção e, portanto, afectam várias respostas bioquímicas dos organismos, foram analisados nas três espécies um conjunto de biomarcadores pertencentes a diferentes vias metabólicas. A abordagem experimental indica que o uso combinado de biomarcadores e outras medidas, tais como índices biológicos e testes in situ, contribui para diagnosticar os efeitos prejudiciais de contaminantes nas comunidades ribeirinhas.

Toxicogenomics of natural and anthropogenic effectors in eleutheroembryos

The introduction of chemicals into the environment by human activities may represent a serious risk to environmental and human health. Environmental risk assessment requires the use of efficient and sensitive tools to determine the impact of contaminants on the ecosystems. The use of zebrafish for the toxicity assessment of pharmaceuticals, drugs, and pollutants, is becoming well accepted due to zebrafish unique advantages for the screening of compounds for hazard identification. The aim of the present work is to apply toxicogenomic approaches to identify novel biomarkers and uncovered potential modes of action of classic and emergent contaminants able to disrupt endocrine systems, such as the Retinoic Acid Receptor, Retinoid X Receptor and the Aryl Hydrocarbon Receptor. This study relies on different nuclear and cytosolic protein receptors and other conditional (ligand- or stress- activated) transcriptional factors that are intimately involved in the regulation of defensome genes and in mechanisms of chemical toxicity. The transcriptomic effects of organic compounds, endogenous compounds, and nanoparticles were analysed during the early stages of zebrafish development. Studying the gene expression profiles of exposed and unexposed organisms to pollutants using microarrays allowed the identification of specific gene markers and to establish a "genetic code" for the tested compounds. Changes in gene expression were observed at toxicant concentrations that did not cause morphological effects. Even at low toxicant concentrations, the observed changes in transcript levels were robust for some target genes. Microarray responses of selected genes were further complemented by the real time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) methodology. The combination of bio-informatic, toxicological analyses of differential gene expression profiles, and biochemical and phenotypic responses across the treatments allowed the identification of uncovered potential mechanisms of action. In addition, this work provides an integrated set of tools that can be used to aid management-decision making by improving the predictive capability to measure environmental stress of contaminants in freshwater ecosystems. This study also illustrates the potential of zebrafish embryos for the systematic, large-scale analysis of chemical effects on developing vertebrates.

Metais em águas e sedimentos da plataforma dos Açores

A presente tese tem por objetivo principal contribuir para o conhecimento da geoquímica sedimentar da zona oceânica da crista da Terceira e montanhas submarinas a sul (região entre 29-39ºN e 27-32ºW), integrando também a caraterização dos metais e nutrientes na coluna de água e propondo concentrações para servirem de referência nesta região do Atlântico Central. Para o efeito foram realizadas amostragens na coluna de água em sete locais e de sedimento em cinco locais, durante a campanha oceanográfica designada por EMEPC/AÇORES/G3/2007 a bordo do navio SV Kommandor Jack, no âmbito do projeto da Estrutura de Missão para a Extensão da Plataforma Continental (EMEPC). Os perfis de CTD da coluna de água na região estudada revelam a presença de massas de água distintas: a Western North Atlantic Central Water (WNACW), a Eastern North Atlantic Central Water tropical (ENACWt), a Eastern North Atlantic Central Water polar (ENACWp), a Mediterranean Overflow Water (MOW), a Deep Mediterranean Water (DMW) e a North Eastern Atlantic Deep Water (NEADW). Observou-se nos perfis de temperatura e salinidade, referentes aos primeiros 200 m da coluna de água, um gradiente meridional negativo entre as estações localizadas na crista da Terceira e as estações localizadas mais a sul. Observou-se nas águas superficiais valores de oxigénio dissolvido de 93% e de pH de 8,1, assim como que as concentrações dos nutrientes NOx, PO4 e SiO2 variam de acordo com a atividade biológica, tendo-se registado concentrações medianas mais baixas, respetivamente de 6,5, 0,23 e 1,3 mol L-1, que aumentam com a profundidade devido à ausência de produção primária (respetivamente 31, 1,4 e 22 mol L-1). As concentrações de NH4 e de SO4 não variam significativamente nas massas de água, sendo os valores medianos mínimos e máximos de 0,69 a 0,79 mol L-1 para o NH4 e de 30 a 32 mol L-1 para o SO4. São propostas concentrações de referência para as massas de água, para os elementos cobre, cádmio, chumbo e arsénio. Os perfis de sedimento analisados permitem distinguir os sedimentos na crista da Terceira (core A) dos restantes (cores B a E). A grande variabilidade textural encontrada no core A, que contrasta com os outros cores analisados, deve-se a importantes contribuições terrígenas, originadas pela erosão sub-aérea e pela atividade vulcânica das ilhas próximas. iv resumo (continuação) A análise mineralógica, efetuada à fração areia e à fração fina (< 63 μm), confirma que os sedimentos do core A derivam de rochas vulcânicas formadas maioritariamente por piroxenas, olivinas, anfíbolas, biotite, alterites e ainda calcite, plagióclase e magnetite, tendo-se identificado ao microscópio a glauconite e o vidro vulcânico. De acordo com a composição química destes minerais o core A apresenta valores mais elevados de Al, Fe, K, P, Mg, Si, Na, Zn, V, Cr e Mn relativamente aos cores B a E. Os cores B a E apresentam grandes quantidades de calcite (>80%) formada maioritariamente por foraminíferos e nanoplâncton calcário (cocolitóforos). A fração areia confirma a composição maioritariamente carbonatada com grande abundância de material biogénico formado por oozes de foraminíferos (planctónicos e bentónicos) com raras espículas de espongiários e restos de conchas. Os cores B a E apresentam valores muito mais elevados que o core A para os elementos Ca e Sr. Os resultados para o Al, Fe, K, P, Si, Na, As, Cu, Ni, Zn, V, Cr, Li, Pb, Cd e Co presentes nos locais B, C, D e E sugerem que estes cores são comparáveis aos sedimentos de fundo carbonatados. Propõe-se concentrações de referência para a região do Atlântico compreendida entre 29-39ºN e 27-32ºW considerando a primeira camada colhida em cada core. Para o core A as concentrações são normalizadas a 5% de Al e CaCO3, enquanto que para os cores B a E são normalizadas a 2% de Al e CaCO3. Assim as concentrações de referência para o core A são: As – 18 mg kg-1, Cr – 91 mg kg-1, Cu – 127 mg kg-1, Ni – 84 mg kg-1, Pb – 41 mg kg-1, Hg – 41 ng g-1 e Zn – 482 mg kg-1. Para os cores B a E as concentrações de referência são: As – 3 mg kg-1, Cr – 10 mg kg-1, Cu – 36 mg kg-1 Ni – 12 mg kg -1, Hg – 3 ng g-1 e Zn – 20 mg kg-1. Para os restantes metais as concentrações de referência para o core A são: Al – 9%, Si – 25%, Fe – 6%, Ca – 13%, K – 2%, Mg – 2%, Na – 3%, P – 0,4%, Sr – 900 mg kg-1, Li – 10 mg kg-1, Mn – 1200 mg kg-1, Ba – 700 mg kg-1 e V – 140 mg kg-1. Para os cores B a E as concentrações de referência são: Al – 0,9%, Si – 2%, Fe – 0,2%, Ca – 95%, K – 0,3%, Mg – 0,4%, Na – 0,3%, P – 0,04%, Sr – 2600 mg kg-1, Li – 5 mg kg-1, Mn – 240 mg kg-1, Ba – 345 mg kg-1, Co – 2 mg kg-1 e V – 6 mg kg-1. Os resultados da presente tese constituem um contributo para a caraterização geoquímica da região e podem servir de referência à monitorização futura do mar dos Açores e montes submarinos a sul.

Management and Control of Water Supply Systems

The fast increase in the energy’s price has brought a growing concern about the highly expensive task of transporting water. By creating an hydraulic model of the Water Supply System’s (WSS) network and predicting its behaviour, it is possible to take advantage of the energy’s tariffs, reducing the total cost on pumping activities. This thesis was developed, in association with a technology transfer project called the E-Pumping. It focuses on finding a flexible supervision and control strategy, adaptable to any existent Water Supply System (WSS), as well as forecasting the water demand on a time period chosen by the end user, so that the pumping actions could be planned to an optimum schedule, that minimizes the total operational cost. The OPC protocol, associated to a MySQL database were used to develop a flexible tool of supervision and control, due to their adaptability to function with equipments from various manufacturers, being another integrated modular part of the E-Pumping project. Furthermore, in this thesis, through the study and performance tests of several statistical models based on time series, specifically applied to this problem, a forecasting tool adaptable to any station, and whose model parameters are automatically refreshed at runtime, was developed and added to the project as another module. Both the aforementioned modules were later integrated with an Graphical User Interface (GUI) and installed in a pilot application at the ADDP’s network. The implementation of this software on WSSs across the country will reduce the water supply companies’ running costs, improving their market competition and, ultimately, lowering the water price to the end costumer.

Hydrodynamic and sediment fluxes through the inlets of the Ria Formosa

Tese de dout., Ciências do Mar, da Terra e do Ambiente (Ciências do Mar-Oceanografia Física), Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Univ. do Algarve, 2011

The economic effects of common agricultural policy on Mediterranean montado/dehesa ecosystem

The decoupling of CAP payments leads production decisions and resources allocation to be more dependent on market prices and competitive advantages. The objective of this paper is to assess the effects of CAP trends on the montado/dehesa traditional ecosystem of Mediterranean regions in terms of farm income, land, labour and capital. A positive mathematical supply model disaggregated by the montado agro-forestry production systems of the Alentejo region in southern Portugal is developed. The results show that decoupling payments of CAP have negative economic effects on agricultural activities and resource use. Agricultural income increases with single farm payments but the foreseen increases in prices do not compensate the loss of the Agenda 2000 area payments in terms of competitiveness. These results reinforce the need to promote alternative agricultural and non-agricultural activities and policies in Mediterranean rural European areas and regions. (C) 2011 Society for Policy Modeling. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.