A Bayesian approach to fuzzy hypotheses testing for the estimation of optimal age for vaccination against measles

Fuzzy Bayesian tests were performed to evaluate whether the mother`s seroprevalence and children`s seroconversion to measles vaccine could be considered as ""high"" or ""low"". The results of the tests were aggregated into a fuzzy rule-based model structure, which would allow an expert to influence the model results. The linguistic model was developed considering four input variables. As the model output, we obtain the recommended age-specific vaccine coverage. The inputs of the fuzzy rules are fuzzy sets and the outputs are constant functions, performing the simplest Takagi-Sugeno-Kang model. This fuzzy approach is compared to a classical one, where the classical Bayes test was performed. Although the fuzzy and classical performances were similar, the fuzzy approach was more detailed and revealed important differences. In addition to taking into account subjective information in the form of fuzzy hypotheses it can be intuitively grasped by the decision maker. Finally, we show that the Bayesian test of fuzzy hypotheses is an interesting approach from the theoretical point of view, in the sense that it combines two complementary areas of investigation, normally seen as competitive. (C) 2007 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Light and scanning electron microcopy study of the tongue in Rhea americana

Morphological characteristics of the tongue were studied in adult rhea (Rhea americana). The lingual surface and the surface of epithelium-connective tissue interface of rhea tongue were examined macroscopically and by light and scanning electron microscopy. The rhea tongue revealed a triangular aspect, without adjustment of the inferior bill formation, occupying approximately of the length of the oral cavity. Lingual papilla-like structures were not observed over the lingual surface. The tongue mucosa was composed of a thick non-keratinized stratified squamous epithelium in the dorsal and ventral part, supported by a connective tissue core. The submucosa contained numerous glands with cytoplasmic granules, and luminal secretion was positive for histochemical reaction to Alcian Blue in pH 2.5 and PAS, and negative to Alcian Blue in pH 0.5. Despite the rudimentary characteristic of the tongue in rhea, our results suggest an important role of tongue secretions in food lubrication and humidification during the swallowing process, based on the enormous quantity of lingual glands in the submucosa and the histochemical characteristics of their secretions.

Rat forming incisor requires a rigorous ECM remodeling modulated by MMP/RECK balance

Reversion-inducing-cysteine-rich protein with Kazal motifs (RECK) is a single membrane-anchored MMP-regulator and regulates matrix metalloproteinases (MMP) 2, 9 and 14. In turn, MMPs are endopeptidases that play a pivotal role in remodeling ECM. In this work, we decided to evaluate expression pattern of RECK in growing rat incisor during, specifically focusing out amelogenesis process. Based on different kinds of ameloblasts, our results showed that RECK expression was conducted by secretory and post-secretory ameloblasts. At the secretory phase, RECK was localized in the infra-nuclear region of the ameloblast, outer epithelium, near blood vessels, and in the stellate reticulum. From the transition to the maturation phases, RECK was strongly expressed by non-epithelial immuno-competent cells (macrophages and/or dendritic-like cells) in the papillary layer. From the transition to the maturation stage, RECK expression was increased. RECK mRNA was amplified by RT-PCR from whole enamel organ. Here, we verified the presence of RECK mRNA during all stages of amelogenesis. These events were governed by ameloblasts and by non-epithelial cells residents in the enamel organ. Concluding, we found differential expression of MMPs-2, -9 and RECK in the different phases of amelogenesis, suggesting that the tissue remodeling is rigorously controlled during dental mineralization.

Stickiness in foods: A review of mechanisms and test methods

Problems associated with the stickiness of food in processing and storage practices along with its causative factors are outlined. Fundamental mechanisms that explain why and how food products become sticky are discussed. Methods currently in use for characterizing and overcoming stickiness problems in food processing and storage operations are described. The use of glass transition temperature-based model, which provides a rational basis for understanding and characterizing the stickiness of many food products, is highlighted.

Public sector change in Australia: Are managers' ideals being realized?

Public sector organizations traditionally have been associated with the internal process (bureaucratic) model of organizational culture. Public choice and management theory have suggested that public sector managers can learn from the experience of private sector management, and need to change from the Internal process model of organizational culture. Due to these Influences an managers, the current research proposes that managers' perceptions of Ideal organizational culture would no longer reflect the Internal process model. Public sector managers' perceptions of the current culture, as well as their perceptions of the Ideal culture, were measured. A mail-out survey was conducted In the Queensland (a state of Australia) public sector. Responses to a competing values culture Inventory were received from 222 managers. Results Indicated that a reliance on the Internal process model persists, while managers had a desire for cultural models other than the Internal process model, as hypothesized.

The plausibility of long-wavelength stress correlation or stress magnitude as a mechanism for precursory seismicity: Results from two simple elastic models

Observations of accelerating seismic activity prior to large earthquakes in natural fault systems have raised hopes for intermediate-term eartquake forecasting. If this phenomena does exist, then what causes it to occur? Recent theoretical work suggests that the accelerating seismic release sequence is a symptom of increasing long-wavelength stress correlation in the fault region. A more traditional explanation, based on Reid's elastic rebound theory, argues that an accelerating sequence of seismic energy release could be a consequence of increasing stress in a fault system whose stress moment release is dominated by large events. Both of these theories are examined using two discrete models of seismicity: a Burridge-Knopoff block-slider model and an elastic continuum based model. Both models display an accelerating release of seismic energy prior to large simulated earthquakes. In both models there is a correlation between the rate of seismic energy release with the total root-mean-squared stress and the level of long-wavelength stress correlation. Furthermore, both models exhibit a systematic increase in the number of large events at high stress and high long-wavelength stress correlation levels. These results suggest that either explanation is plausible for the accelerating moment release in the models examined. A statistical model based on the Burridge-Knopoff block-slider is constructed which indicates that stress alone is sufficient to produce accelerating release of seismic energy with time prior to a large earthquake.

Conditional simulation of random fields by successive residuals

This paper presents a new approach to the LU decomposition method for the simulation of stationary and ergodic random fields. The approach overcomes the size limitations of LU and is suitable for any size simulation. The proposed approach can facilitate fast updating of generated realizations with new data, when appropriate, without repeating the full simulation process. Based on a novel column partitioning of the L matrix, expressed in terms of successive conditional covariance matrices, the approach presented here demonstrates that LU simulation is equivalent to the successive solution of kriging residual estimates plus random terms. Consequently, it can be used for the LU decomposition of matrices of any size. The simulation approach is termed conditional simulation by successive residuals as at each step, a small set (group) of random variables is simulated with a LU decomposition of a matrix of updated conditional covariance of residuals. The simulated group is then used to estimate residuals without the need to solve large systems of equations.

Simulation of the micro-physics of rocks using LSMearth

The particle-based Lattice Solid Model (LSM) was developed to provide a basis to study the physics of rocks and the nonlinear dynamics of earthquakes (MORA and PLACE, 1994; PLACE and MORA, 1999). A new modular and flexible LSM approach has been developed that allows different microphysics to be easily included in or removed from the model. The approach provides a virtual laboratory where numerical experiments can easily be set up and all measurable quantities visualised. The proposed approach provides a means to simulate complex phenomena such as fracturing or localisation processes, and enables the effect of different micro-physics on macroscopic behaviour to be studied. The initial 2-D model is extended to allow three-dimensional simulations to be performed and particles of different sizes to be specified. Numerical bi-axial compression experiments under different confining pressure are used to calibrate the model. By tuning the different microscopic parameters (such as coefficient of friction, microscopic strength and distribution of grain sizes), the macroscopic strength of the material and can be adjusted to be in agreement with laboratory experiments, and the orientation of fractures is consistent with the theoretical value predicted based on Mohr-Coulomb diagram. Simulations indicate that 3-D numerical models have different macroscopic properties than in 2-D and, hence, the model must be recalibrated for 3-D simulations. These numerical experiments illustrate that the new approach is capable of simulating typical rock fracture behaviour. The new model provides a basis to investigate nucleation, rupture and slip pulse propagation in complex fault zones without the previous model limitations of a regular low-level surface geometry and being restricted to two-dimensions.

A gest??o de pessoas como um recurso estrat??gico

O texto examina as estrat??gias e os sistemas que devem ser considerados para se alcan??ar a melhor gest??o de recursos humanos no setor p??blico. Inicialmente, baseado em tr??s modelos tradicionais de administra????o p??blica, sugere uma abordagem hol??stica para aumentar a efetividade da gest??o. Em seguida, defende a id??ia de um ??rg??o ???guardi??o??? central, que considere o princ??pio do m??rito e que divida com os ??rg??os de linha a responsabilidade sobre a GRH. Mostra, ainda, a import??ncia de institucionalizar os valores da imparcialidade, do profissionalismo e da responsividade. Ao tratar da profissionaliza????o da GRH, ressalta a necessidade de uma pol??tica que defina como a gest??o de pessoas contribuir?? para o alcance de objetivos governamentais. Para isso, prop??e a aplica????o de um modelo integrado baseado em compet??ncias e o desenvolvimento de uma pol??tica salarial que permita a atra????o e reten????o de talentos no setor p??blico. Ao final, o texto apresenta os pr??s e contras da gest??o por desempenho, bem como os desafios de um redimensionamento organizacional no servi??o p??blico.

Teaching drawing: an interdisciplinary pedagogical experience in a graphic design course

Various authors have written about the importance of drawing in design methodology. Their general conclusion points drawing as an essential tool for design research, as it allows investigation of several alternative solutions in design process (Cross, 2007). The recent profound changes in design nature (Norman, 2011), justify a discussion on the purpose of drawing in design courses. As a consequence of this new reality, the educational institutions face the challenge of the definition of their curricular structures and teaching methodologies. Among others, concepts such as collaboration and multidisciplinary design approaches have been discussed as strategies for design education (Heller and Talarico, 2011, pp. 82-85). In this context, and using our teaching activity experience in Drawing and Design areas, the authors discuss:  how can drawing methods be included in the current design teaching?  can drawing be considered as an interdisciplinary approach?  what contributions can these methodologies provide to the educational/learning process? Based on these concerns, we developed an interdisciplinary project in the Graphic Design Course with two curricular units: Drawing 1 and Aesthetic and Design Theory 1. In this article the authors present the aims and process developed, and discuss the outcomes of this pedagogical experience.

Finantial risk analysis of portuguese textile and tourism companies

Textile and tourism sectors are two important industries in the Portuguese economy. However, its high exposure to both internal and international economic volatility make the companies operating in these economic sectors particularly vulnerable to economic crises, such as the ones which have been impacting Portugal and the European Union. The objective of this paper is to evaluate and understand the impact of size and age on the financial health of textile and tourism companies, measured by economic indices. An empirical based model is proposed. Its implications are derived and tested on a sample of 4061 Portuguese companies from textile and tourism sectors, during the period 2005-2009. The findings suggest that age has a major impact on the risk of failure, rather than size. Whereas the effect of age is generally positive regarding the financial health of the company, the effect of size is less clear and ultimately depends on the age of the company.

The impact of size and age of the company on assessing financial risk

Textiles and tourism sectors are two important sectors in Portuguese economy. Its high exposure to both internal and international economy volatility transform the companies operating in these economic sectors especially vulnerable to recent economic crises in Portugal and European Union. The objective of this paper is to evaluate and understand the impact of size and age on the financial health of textile and tourism companies, measured by economic indices. An empirical based model is proposed. Its implications are derived and tested on a sample of 4061 Portuguese companies from textile and tourism sector, during the period 2005-2009. The results conclude that age has a stronger impact on the risk of failure than size. Whereas the effect of age is generally positive regarding the financial health of the company, the effect of size is less clear and depends on the age of the company.

Financial Risk Analysis of Portuguese Textile and Tourism Companies

Textile and tourism sectors are two important industries in the Portuguese economy. However, its high exposure to both internal and international economic volatility make the companies operating in these economic sectors particularly vulnerable to economic crises, such as the ones which have been impacting Portugal and the European Union. The objective of this paper is to evaluate and understand the impact of size and age on the financial health of textile and tourism companies, measured by economic indices. An empirical based model is proposed. Its implications are derived and tested on a sample of 4061 Portuguese companies from textile and tourism sectors, during the period 2005-2009. The findings suggest that age has a major impact on the risk of failure, rather than size. Whereas the effect of age is generally positive regarding the financial health of the company, the effect of size is less clear and ultimately depends on the age of the company.

Financial Risk Analysis of Portuguese Textile and Tourism Companies

Textile and tourism sectors are two important industries in the Portuguese economy. However, its high exposure to both internal and international economic volatility make the companies operating in these economic sectors particularly vulnerable to economic crises, such as the ones which have been impacting Portugal and the European Union. The objective of this paper is to evaluate and understand the impact of size and age on the financial health of textile and tourism companies, measured by economic indices. An empirical based model is proposed. Its implications are derived and tested on a sample of 4061 Portuguese companies from textile and tourism sectors, during the period 2005-2009. The findings suggest that age has a major impact on the risk of failure, rather than size. Whereas the effect of age is generally positive regarding the financial health of the company, the effect of size is less clear and ultimately depends on the age of the company.

The impact of size and age of the company on assessing financial risk.

Textiles and tourism sectors are two important sectors in Portuguese economy. Its high exposure to both internal and international economy volatility transform the companies operating in these economic sectors especially vulnerable to recent economic crises in Portugal and European Union. The objective of this paper is to evaluate and understand the impact of size and age on the financial health of textile and tourism companies, measured by economic indices. An empirical based model is proposed. Its implications are derived and tested on a sample of 4061 Portuguese companies from textile and tourism sector, during the period 2005-2009. The results conclude that age has a stronger impact on the risk of failure than size. Whereas the effect of age is generally positive regarding the financial health of the company, the effect of size is less clear and depends on the age of the company.