Quantifying Accuracy Improvement in Sets of Pooled Judgments: Does Dialectical Bootstrapping Work?

Galton (1907) first demonstrated the "wisdom of crowds" phenomenon by averaging independent estimates of unknown quantities given by many individuals. Herzog and Hertwig (2009; hereafter H&H in Psychological Science) showed that individuals' own estimates can be improved by asking them to make two estimates at separate times and averaging them. H&H claimed to observe far greater improvement in accuracy when participants received "dialectical" instructions to consider why their first estimate might be wrong before making their second estimates than when they received standard instructions. We reanalyzed H&H's data using measures of accuracy that are unrelated to the frequency of identical first and second responses and found that participants in both conditions improved their accuracy to an equal degree.

Implementation of Benchmark Project Recommendations for Iowa DOT Offices of Construction, Addendum to HR-381, 1996

This report describes the continuation of the development of performance measures for the Iowa Department of Transportation (DOT) Offices of Construction. Those offices are responsible for administering transportation construction projects for the Iowa DOT. Researchers worked closely with the Benchmark Steering Team which was formed during Phase I of this project and is composed of representatives of the Offices of Construction. The research team conducted a second survey of Offices of Construction personnel, interviewed numerous members of the Offices and continued to work to improve the eight key processes identified during Phase I of this research. The eight key processes include Inspection of Work, Resolution of Technical Issues, Documentation of Work Progress and Pay Quantities, Employee Training and Development, Continuous Feedback for Improved Contract Documents, Provide Safe Traffic Control, External/Public Communication, and Providing Pre-Letting Information. Three to four measurements were specified for each key process. Many of these measurements required opinion surveys of employees, contractors, and others. During Phase II, researchers concentrated on conducting surveys, interviewing respondents to improve future surveys, and facilitating Benchmark Steering Team monthly meetings. Much effort was placed on using the information collected during the first year's research to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of the Offices of Construction. The results from Process Improvement Teams that studied Traffic Control and Resolution of Technical Issues were used to improve operations.

Accuracy and predictability in use of AO three-dimensionally preformed titanium mesh plates for posttraumatic orbital reconstruction: a pilot study.

The aim of this study was to prospectively evaluate the accuracy and predictability of new three-dimensionally preformed AO titanium mesh plates for posttraumatic orbital wall reconstruction.We analyzed the preoperative and postoperative clinical and radiologic data of 10 patients with isolated blow-out orbital fractures. Fracture locations were as follows: floor (N = 7; 70%), medial wall (N = 1; 1%), and floor/medial wall (N = 2; 2%). The floor fractures were exposed by a standard transconjunctival approach, whereas a combined transcaruncular transconjunctival approach was used in patients with medial wall fractures. A three-dimensional preformed AO titanium mesh plate (0.4 mm in thickness) was selected according to the size of the defect previously measured on the preoperative computed tomographic (CT) scan examination and fixed at the inferior orbital rim with 1 or 2 screws. The accuracy of plate positioning of the reconstructed orbit was assessed on the postoperative CT scan. Coronal CT scan slices were used to measure bony orbital volume using OsiriX Medical Image software. Reconstructed versus uninjured orbital volume were statistically correlated.Nine patients (90%) had a successful treatment outcome without complications. One patient (10%) developed a mechanical limitation of upward gaze with a resulting handicapping diplopia requiring hardware removal. Postoperative orbital CT scan showed an anatomic three-dimensional placement of the orbital mesh plates in all of the patients. Volume data of the reconstructed orbit fitted that of the contralateral uninjured orbit with accuracy to within 2.5 cm(3). There was no significant difference in volume between the reconstructed and uninjured orbits.This preliminary study has demonstrated that three-dimensionally preformed AO titanium mesh plates for posttraumatic orbital wall reconstruction results in (1) a high rate of success with an acceptable rate of major clinical complications (10%) and (2) an anatomic restoration of the bony orbital contour and volume that closely approximates that of the contralateral uninjured orbit.

The Governor's Blue Ribbon Transportation Task Force: Implementation Report for Maximizing the Efficient Use of Iowa's Road Use Tax Fund, 1998

This report documents the Iowa Department of Transportation's accomplishments and ongoing efforts in response to 39 recommendations proposed by the Governor's Blue Ribbon Transportation Task Force at the end of 1995. Governor Terry Branstad challenged the Task Force to "maximize the benefits of each dollar spent from the Road Use Tax Fund."

Accuracy of out-of-field dose calculation of tomotherapy and cyberknife treatment planning systems: A dosimetric study.

PURPOSE: Late toxicities such as second cancer induction become more important as treatment outcome improves. Often the dose distribution calculated with a commercial treatment planning system (TPS) is used to estimate radiation carcinogenesis for the radiotherapy patient. However, for locations beyond the treatment field borders, the accuracy is not well known. The aim of this study was to perform detailed out-of-field-measurements for a typical radiotherapy treatment plan administered with a Cyberknife and a Tomotherapy machine and to compare the measurements to the predictions of the TPS. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Individually calibrated thermoluminescent dosimeters were used to measure absorbed dose in an anthropomorphic phantom at 184 locations. The measured dose distributions from 6 MV intensity-modulated treatment beams for CyberKnife and TomoTherapy machines were compared to the dose calculations from the TPS. RESULTS: The TPS are underestimating the dose far away from the target volume. Quantitatively the Cyberknife underestimates the dose at 40cm from the PTV border by a factor of 60, the Tomotherapy TPS by a factor of two. If a 50% dose uncertainty is accepted, the Cyberknife TPS can predict doses down to approximately 10 mGy/treatment Gy, the Tomotherapy-TPS down to 0.75 mGy/treatment Gy. The Cyberknife TPS can then be used up to 10cm from the PTV border the Tomotherapy up to 35cm. CONCLUSIONS: We determined that the Cyberknife and Tomotherapy TPS underestimate substantially the doses far away from the treated volume. It is recommended not to use out-of-field doses from the Cyberknife TPS for applications like modeling of second cancer induction. The Tomotherapy TPS can be used up to 35cm from the PTV border (for a 390 cm(3) large PTV).

Implementation of guidelines on delirium in a General Hospital: a before-after study of their impact on caregivers' knowledge and clinical skills

INTRODUCTION: Delirium is a highly prevalent disorder, with serious consequences for the hospitalised patient. Nevertheless, it remains under-diagnosed and under-treated. We developed evidence-based clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) focusing on prevention, screening, diagnosis, and treatment of delirium in a general hospital. This article presents the implementation process of these CPGs and a before-after study assessing their impact on healthcare professionals' knowledge and on clinical practice. METHODS: CPGs on delirium were first implemented in two wards (Neurology and Neurosurgery) of the Lausanne university hospital. Interactive one-hour educational sessions for small groups of nurses and physicians were organised. Participants received a summary of the guidelines and completed a multiple choice questionnaire, assessing putative changes in knowledge, before and three months after the educational session. Other indicators such as "diagnosis of delirium" reported in the discharge letters, and mean duration of patients' hospital stay before and after implementation were compared. RESULTS: Eighty percent of the nurses and physicians from the Neurology and Neurosurgery wards attended the educational sessions. Both nurses and physicians significantly improved their knowledge after the implementation (+9 percentage-points). Other indicators were not modified by the intervention. CONCLUSION: A single interactive intervention improved both nurses' and physicians' knowledge on delirium. Sustained and repeated interventions are probably needed to demonstrate changes in clinical practice.

County grant program for veterans : status report on the implementation of 2006 Iowa Acts, Chapter 1185, Section 34, 2007

This is an overview of the program that the General Assembly of Iowa appropriated $1 million for to the Iowa Department of Veterans Affairs with the intent to improve delivery services by the various County Commissions of Veterans Affairs to veterans in their respective counties.

Lihahygienialainsäädännön omavalvontasäädökset ja käytäntö Oy Snellman Ab:n teurastamossa ja leikkaamossa, osa I Osa 1 : Owncontrol directions in meat hygiene legislation and their practical implementation in the slaughterhouse and cutting plant of Snellman Ltd, part I

Summary: Owncontrol directions in meat hygiene legislation and their practical implementation in the slaughterhouse and cutting plant of Snellman Ltd, part I

Veterans counseling program : status report on the implementation of Iowa Code 35.12, Veterans Counseling & Outreach Program, 2008

This report gives an overview, background and progress on the implementation of the Veterans Counseling Program established pursuant to Iowa Code 35.12, as enacted by 2007 Iowa Acts, House FIle 817.

From evidence to clinical practice: effective implementation of therapeutic hypothermia to improve patient outcome after cardiac arrest.

OBJECTIVES: Therapeutic hypothermia has been recommended for postcardiac arrest coma due to ventricular fibrillation. However, no studies have evaluated whether therapeutic hypothermia could be effectively implemented in intensive care practice and whether it would improve the outcome of all comatose patients with cardiac arrest, including those with shock or with cardiac arrest due to nonventricular fibrillation rhythms. DESIGN: Retrospective study. SETTING: Fourteen-bed medical intensive care unit in a university hospital. PATIENTS: Patients were 109 comatose patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest due to ventricular fibrillation and nonventricular fibrillation rhythms (asystole/pulseless electrical activity). INTERVENTIONS: We analyzed 55 consecutive patients (June 2002 to December 2004) treated with therapeutic hypothermia (to a central target temperature of 33 degrees C, using external cooling). Fifty-four consecutive patients (June 1999 to May 2002) treated with standard resuscitation served as controls. Efficacy, safety, and outcome at hospital discharge were assessed. Good outcome was defined as Glasgow-Pittsburgh Cerebral Performance category 1 or 2. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: In patients treated with therapeutic hypothermia, the median time to reach the target temperature was 5 hrs, with a progressive reduction over the 18 months of data collection. Therapeutic hypothermia had a major positive impact on the outcome of patients with cardiac arrest due to ventricular fibrillation (good outcome in 24 of 43 patients [55.8%] of the therapeutic hypothermia group vs. 11 of 43 patients [25.6%] of the standard resuscitation group, p = .004). The benefit of therapeutic hypothermia was also maintained in patients with shock (good outcome in five of 17 patients of the therapeutic hypothermia group vs. zero of 14 of the standard resuscitation group, p = .027). The outcome after cardiac arrest due to nonventricular fibrillation rhythms was poor and did not differ significantly between the two groups. Therapeutic hypothermia was of particular benefit in patients with short duration of cardiac arrest (<30 mins). CONCLUSIONS: Therapeutic hypothermia for the treatment of postcardiac arrest coma can be successfully implemented in intensive care practice with a major benefit on patient outcome, which appeared to be related to the type and the duration of initial cardiac arrest and seemed maintained in patients with shock.

Reconsidering the "policy gap":policy implementation and outcomes in Spain

By analysing entry policies and regularisation procedures in Spain from the 1990s to 2007, this article examines how the mismatch between very restrictive immigration policies and increasing foreign labour demands translated into a model of illegal migration, which in turn gave rise to the need to carry out periodical regularisation drives. This double 'policy gap' between legality and reality, and between entry policies and regularisation procedures, is explained as a policy in itself and as a way to solve in practice the apparently unsolvable dilemma between the demands for closure and the insatiable demands for foreign workers.

Decision curve analysis revisited: overall net benefit, relationships to ROC curve analysis, and application to case-control studies.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Decision curve analysis has been introduced as a method to evaluate prediction models in terms of their clinical consequences if used for a binary classification of subjects into a group who should and into a group who should not be treated. The key concept for this type of evaluation is the "net benefit", a concept borrowed from utility theory. METHODS: We recall the foundations of decision curve analysis and discuss some new aspects. First, we stress the formal distinction between the net benefit for the treated and for the untreated and define the concept of the "overall net benefit". Next, we revisit the important distinction between the concept of accuracy, as typically assessed using the Youden index and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and the concept of utility of a prediction model, as assessed using decision curve analysis. Finally, we provide an explicit implementation of decision curve analysis to be applied in the context of case-control studies. RESULTS: We show that the overall net benefit, which combines the net benefit for the treated and the untreated, is a natural alternative to the benefit achieved by a model, being invariant with respect to the coding of the outcome, and conveying a more comprehensive picture of the situation. Further, within the framework of decision curve analysis, we illustrate the important difference between the accuracy and the utility of a model, demonstrating how poor an accurate model may be in terms of its net benefit. Eventually, we expose that the application of decision curve analysis to case-control studies, where an accurate estimate of the true prevalence of a disease cannot be obtained from the data, is achieved with a few modifications to the original calculation procedure. CONCLUSIONS: We present several interrelated extensions to decision curve analysis that will both facilitate its interpretation and broaden its potential area of application.

Paper 5: Surveillance of multiple congenital anomalies: implementation of a computer algorithm in European registers for classification of cases.

BACKGROUND: Surveillance of multiple congenital anomalies is considered to be more sensitive for the detection of new teratogens than surveillance of all or isolated congenital anomalies. Current literature proposes the manual review of all cases for classification into isolated or multiple congenital anomalies. METHODS: Multiple anomalies were defined as two or more major congenital anomalies, excluding sequences and syndromes. A computer algorithm for classification of major congenital anomaly cases in the EUROCAT database according to International Classification of Diseases (ICD)v10 codes was programmed, further developed, and implemented for 1 year's data (2004) from 25 registries. The group of cases classified with potential multiple congenital anomalies were manually reviewed by three geneticists to reach a final agreement of classification as "multiple congenital anomaly" cases. RESULTS: A total of 17,733 cases with major congenital anomalies were reported giving an overall prevalence of major congenital anomalies at 2.17%. The computer algorithm classified 10.5% of all cases as "potentially multiple congenital anomalies". After manual review of these cases, 7% were agreed to have true multiple congenital anomalies. Furthermore, the algorithm classified 15% of all cases as having chromosomal anomalies, 2% as monogenic syndromes, and 76% as isolated congenital anomalies. The proportion of multiple anomalies varies by congenital anomaly subgroup with up to 35% of cases with bilateral renal agenesis. CONCLUSIONS: The implementation of the EUROCAT computer algorithm is a feasible, efficient, and transparent way to improve classification of congenital anomalies for surveillance and research.

The QUASAR reproducibility study, Part II: Results from a multi-center Arterial Spin Labeling test-retest study.

Arterial Spin Labeling (ASL) is a method to measure perfusion using magnetically labeled blood water as an endogenous tracer. Being fully non-invasive, this technique is attractive for longitudinal studies of cerebral blood flow in healthy and diseased individuals, or as a surrogate marker of metabolism. So far, ASL has been restricted mostly to specialist centers due to a generally low SNR of the method and potential issues with user-dependent analysis needed to obtain quantitative measurement of cerebral blood flow (CBF). Here, we evaluated a particular implementation of ASL (called Quantitative STAR labeling of Arterial Regions or QUASAR), a method providing user independent quantification of CBF in a large test-retest study across sites from around the world, dubbed "The QUASAR reproducibility study". Altogether, 28 sites located in Asia, Europe and North America participated and a total of 284 healthy volunteers were scanned. Minimal operator dependence was assured by using an automatic planning tool and its accuracy and potential usefulness in multi-center trials was evaluated as well. Accurate repositioning between sessions was achieved with the automatic planning tool showing mean displacements of 1.87+/-0.95 mm and rotations of 1.56+/-0.66 degrees . Mean gray matter CBF was 47.4+/-7.5 [ml/100 g/min] with a between-subject standard variation SD(b)=5.5 [ml/100 g/min] and a within-subject standard deviation SD(w)=4.7 [ml/100 g/min]. The corresponding repeatability was 13.0 [ml/100 g/min] and was found to be within the range of previous studies.