Estimation of age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions using US and Catalan survival data

Background: During the last part of the 1990s the chance of surviving breast cancer increased. Changes in survival functions reflect a mixture of effects. Both, the introduction of adjuvant treatments and early screening with mammography played a role in the decline in mortality. Evaluating the contribution of these interventions using mathematical models requires survival functions before and after their introduction. Furthermore, required survival functions may be different by age groups and are related to disease stage at diagnosis. Sometimes detailed information is not available, as was the case for the region of Catalonia (Spain). Then one may derive the functions using information from other geographical areas. This work presents the methodology used to estimate age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions from scarce Catalan survival data by adapting the age- and stage-specific US functions. Methods: Cubic splines were used to smooth data and obtain continuous hazard rate functions. After, we fitted a Poisson model to derive hazard ratios. The model included time as a covariate. Then the hazard ratios were applied to US survival functions detailed by age and stage to obtain Catalan estimations. Results: We started estimating the hazard ratios for Catalonia versus the USA before and after the introduction of screening. The hazard ratios were then multiplied by the age- and stage-specific breast cancer hazard rates from the USA to obtain the Catalan hazard rates. We also compared breast cancer survival in Catalonia and the USA in two time periods, before cancer control interventions (USA 1975–79, Catalonia 1980–89) and after (USA and Catalonia 1990–2001). Survival in Catalonia in the 1980–89 period was worse than in the USA during 1975–79, but the differences disappeared in 1990–2001. Conclusion: Our results suggest that access to better treatments and quality of care contributed to large improvements in survival in Catalonia. On the other hand, we obtained detailed breast cancer survival functions that will be used for modeling the effect of screening and adjuvant treatments in Catalonia.

Effectiveness of early detection on breast cancer mortality reduction in Catalonia (Spain)

Background: At present, it is complicated to use screening trials to determine the optimal age intervals and periodicities of breast cancer early detection. Mathematical models are an alternative that has been widely used. The aim of this study was to estimate the effect of different breast cancer early detection strategies in Catalonia (Spain), in terms of breast cancer mortality reduction (MR) and years of life gained (YLG), using the stochastic models developed by Lee and Zelen (LZ). Methods: We used the LZ model to estimate the cumulative probability of death for a cohort exposed to different screening strategies after T years of follow-up. We also obtained the cumulative probability of death for a cohort with no screening. These probabilities were used to estimate the possible breast cancer MR and YLG by age, period and cohort of birth. The inputs of the model were: incidence of, mortality from and survival after breast cancer, mortality from other causes, distribution of breast cancer stages at diagnosis and sensitivity of mammography. The outputs were relative breast cancer MR and YLG. Results: Relative breast cancer MR varied from 20% for biennial exams in the 50 to 69 age interval to 30% for annual exams in the 40 to 74 age interval. When strategies differ in periodicity but not in the age interval of exams, biennial screening achieved almost 80% of the annual screening MR. In contrast to MR, the effect on YLG of extending screening from 69 to 74 years of age was smaller than the effect of extending the screening from 50 to 45 or 40 years. Conclusion: In this study we have obtained a measure of the effect of breast cancer screening in terms of mortality and years of life gained. The Lee and Zelen mathematical models have been very useful for assessing the impact of different modalities of early detection on MR and YLG in Catalonia (Spain).

Breast cancer in younger women in Switzerland 1996-2009 : a longitudinal population-based study

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer (BC) is the most commonly diagnosed cancer and a leading cause of death in younger women. METHODS: We analysed incidence, mortality and relative survival (RS) in women with BC aged 20-49 years at diagnosis, between 1996 and 2009 in Switzerland. Trends are reported as estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC). RESULTS: Our findings confirm a slight increase in the incidence of BC in younger Swiss women during the period 1996-2009. The increase was largest in women aged 20-39 years (EAPC 1.8%). Mortality decreased in both age groups with similar EAPCs. Survival was lowest among women 20-39 years (10-year RS 73.4%). We observed no notable differences in stage of disease at diagnosis that might explain these differences. CONCLUSIONS: The increased incidence and lower survival in younger women diagnosed with BC in Switzerland indicates possible differences in risk factors, tumour biology and treatment characteristics that require additional examination.

Cost-effectiveness of early detection of breast cancer in Catalonia (Spain)

Background: Breast cancer (BC) causes more deaths than any other cancer among women in Catalonia. Early detection has contributed to the observed decline in BC mortality. However, there is debate on the optimal screening strategy. We performed an economic evaluation of 20 screening strategies taking into account the cost over time of screening and subsequent medical costs, including diagnostic confirmation, initial treatment, follow-up and advanced care. Methods: We used a probabilistic model to estimate the effect and costs over time of each scenario. The effect was measured as years of life (YL), quality-adjusted life years (QALY), and lives extended (LE). Costs of screening and treatment were obtained from the Early Detection Program and hospital databases of the IMAS-Hospital del Mar in Barcelona. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was used to compare the relative costs and outcomes of different scenarios. Results: Strategies that start at ages 40 or 45 and end at 69 predominate when the effect is measured as YL or QALYs. Biennial strategies 50-69, 45-69 or annual 45-69, 40-69 and 40-74 were selected as cost-effective for both effect measures (YL or QALYs). The ICER increases considerably when moving from biennial to annual scenarios. Moving from no screening to biennial 50-69 years represented an ICER of 4,469€ per QALY. Conclusions: A reduced number of screening strategies have been selected for consideration by researchers, decision makers and policy planners. Mathematical models are useful to assess the impact and costs of BC screening in a specific geographical area.

Contribution of early detection and adjuvant treatments to breast cancer mortality reduction in Catalonia, Spain

Background: Reductions in breast cancer (BC) mortality in Western countries have been attributed to the use of screening mammography and adjuvant treatments. The goal of this work was to analyze the contributions of both interventions to the decrease in BC mortality between 1975 and 2008 in Catalonia. Methodology/Principal Findings: A stochastic model was used to quantify the contribution of each intervention. Age standardized BC mortality rates for calendar years 1975-2008 were estimated in four hypothetical scenarios: 1) Only screening, 2) Only adjuvant treatment, 3) Both interventions, and 4) No intervention. For the 30-69 age group, observed Catalan BC mortality rates per 100,000 women-year rose from 29.4 in 1975 to 38.3 in 1993, and afterwards continuously decreased to 23.2 in 2008. If neither of the two interventions had been used, in 2008 the estimated BC mortality would have been 43.5, which, compared to the observed BC mortality rate, indicates a 46.7% reduction. In 2008 the reduction attributable to screening was 20.4%, to adjuvant treatments was 15.8% and to both interventions 34.1%. Conclusions/Significance: Screening and adjuvant treatments similarly contributed to reducing BC mortality in Catalonia. Mathematical models have been useful to assess the impact of interventions addressed to reduce BC mortality that occurred over nearly the same periods.

Patterns of practice of regional nodal irradiation in breast cancer: results of the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) NOdal Radiotherapy (NORA) survey.

BACKGROUND: Predicting outcome of breast cancer (BC) patients based on sentinel lymph node (SLN) status without axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) is an area of uncertainty. It influences the decision-making for regional nodal irradiation (RNI). The aim of the NORA (NOdal RAdiotherapy) survey was to examine the patterns of RNI. METHODS: A web-questionnaire, including several clinical scenarios, was distributed to 88 EORTC-affiliated centers. Responses were received between July 2013 and January 2014. RESULTS: A total of 84 responses were analyzed. While three-dimensional (3D) radiotherapy (RT) planning is carried out in 81 (96%) centers, nodal areas are delineated in only 51 (61%) centers. Only 14 (17%) centers routinely link internal mammary chain (IMC) and supraclavicular node (SCN) RT indications. In patients undergoing total mastectomy (TM) with ALND, SCN-RT is recommend by 5 (6%), 53 (63%) and 51 (61%) centers for patients with pN0(i+), pN(mi) and pN1, respectively. Extra-capsular extension (ECE) is the main factor influencing decision-making RNI after breast conserving surgery (BCS) and TM. After primary systemic therapy (PST), 49 (58%) centers take into account nodal fibrotic changes in ypN0 patients for RNI indications. In ypN0 patients with inner/central tumors, 23 (27%) centers indicate SCN-RT and IMC-RT. In ypN1 patients, SCN-RT is delivered by less than half of the centers in patients with ypN(i+) and ypN(mi). Twenty-one (25%) of the centers recommend ALN-RT in patients with ypN(mi) or 1-2N+ after ALND. Seventy-five (90%) centers state that age is not considered a limiting factor for RNI. CONCLUSION: The NORA survey is unique in evaluating the impact of SLNB/ALND status on adjuvant RNI decision-making and volumes after BCS/TM with or without PST. ALN-RT is often indicated in pN1 patients, particularly in the case of ECE. Besides the ongoing NSABP-B51/RTOG and ALLIANCE trials, NORA could help to design future specific RNI trials in the SLNB era without ALND in patients receiving or not PST.

Fulvestrant with or without selumetinib, a MEK 1/2 inhibitor, in breast cancer progressing after aromatase inhibitor therapy: A multicentre randomised placebo-controlled double-blind phase II trial, SAKK 21/08.

BACKGROUND: Second line endocrine therapy has limited antitumour activity. Fulvestrant inhibits and downregulates the oestrogen receptor. The mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) pathway is one of the major cascades involved in resistance to endocrine therapy. We assessed the efficacy and safety of fulvestrant with selumetinib, a MEK 1/2 inhibitor, in advanced stage breast cancer progressing after aromatase inhibitor (AI). PATIENTS AND METHODS: This randomised phase II trial included postmenopausal patients with endocrine-sensitive breast cancer. They were ramdomised to fulvestrant combined with selumetinib or placebo. The primary endpoint was disease control rate (DCR) in the experimental arm. ClinicalTrials.gov Indentifier: NCT01160718. RESULTS: Following the planned interim efficacy analysis, recruitment was interrupted after the inclusion of 46 patients (23 in each arm), because the selumetinib-fulvestrant arm did not reach the pre-specified DCR. DCR was 23% (95% confidence interval (CI) 8-45%) in the selumetinib arm and 50% (95% CI 27-75%) in the placebo arm. Median progression-free survival was 3.7months (95% CI 1.9-5.8) in the selumetinib arm and 5.6months (95% CI 3.4-13.6) in the placebo arm. Median time to treatment failure was 5.1 (95% CI 2.3-6.7) and 5.6 (95% CI 3.4-10.2) months, respectively. The most frequent treatment-related adverse events observed in the selumetinib-fulvestrant arm were skin disorders, fatigue, nausea/vomiting, oedema, diarrhoea, mouth disorders and muscle disorders. CONCLUSIONS: The addition of selumetinib to fulvestrant did not show improving patients' outcome and was poorly tolerated at the recommended monotherapy dose. Selumetinib may have deteriorated the efficacy of the endocrine therapy in some patients.

May increasing incidence of breast cancer be related to overdiagnosis? : a population-based study

Background: Breast cancer is the first cause of cancer in women in Switzerland. While breast cancer mortality has sharply decreased in the two last decades in Switzerland, the incidence of breast cancer has increased during the same period. Various reasons for this increase have been hypothesized, such as the increase in the prevalence of obesity, the use of postmenauposal hormone replacement therapy, or a later age for having a first child. Overdiagnosis secondary to screening and any other forms of early detection procedures could be also involved. Analyses of breast cancer by stage can help evaluate if overdiagnosis could have contributed to the increase in the incidence of breast cancer. Methods: We used data from the Valais cancer registry at the Observatoire valaisan de la santé (www.ovs.ch). This population based registry collects data on all new (incident) cases of cancer diagnosed in women living in one canton of Switzerland, Valais. Cancers are coded according to the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology (ICD-O-3) and the stages are coded according to the TNM classification. Information on breast cancer stage (in situ: 0; invasive: I, II, III, IV) was available for all cases recorded between 1993 and 2011 (N=4246). Standardized rates of breast cancer were computed (direct standardization on European population).

Tumour biology, metastatic sites and taxanes sensitivity as determinants of eribulin mesylate efficacy in breast cancer: results from the ERIBEX retrospective, international, multicenter study.

BACKGROUND: Our retrospective, international study aimed at evaluating the activity and safety of eribulin mesylate (EM) in pretreated metastatic breast cancer (MBC) in a routine clinical setting. METHODS: Patients treated with EM for a locally advanced or MBC between March 2011 and January 2014 were included in the study. Clinical and biological assessment of toxicity was performed at each visit. Tumour response was assessed every 3 cycles of treatment. A database was created to collect clinical, pathological and treatment data. RESULTS: Two hundred and fifty-eight patients were included in the study. Median age was 59 years old. Tumours were Hormone Receptor (HR)-positive (73.3 %) HER2-positive (10.2 %), and triple negative (TN, 22.5 %). 86.4 % of the patients presented with visceral metastases, mainly in the liver (67.4 %). Median previous metastatic chemotherapies number was 4 [1-9]. Previous treatments included anthracyclines and/or taxanes (100 %) and capecitabine (90.7 %). Median number of EM cycles was 5 [1-19]. The relative dose intensity was 0.917. At the time of analysis (median follow-up of 13.9 months), 42.3 % of the patients were still alive. The objective response rate was 25.2 % (95 %CI: 20-31) with a 36.1 % clinical benefit rate (CBR). Median time to progression (TTP) and overall survival were 3.97 (95 %CI: 3.25-4.3) and 11.2 (95 %CI: 9.3-12.1) months, respectively. One- and 2-year survival rates were 45.5 and 8.5 %, respectively. In multivariate analysis, HER2 positivity (HR = 0.29), the presence of lung metastases (HR = 2.49) and primary taxanes resistance (HR = 2.36) were the only three independent CBR predictive factors, while HR positivity (HR = 0.67), the presence of lung metastases (HR = 1.52) and primary taxanes resistance (HR = 1.50) were the only three TTP independent prognostic factors. Treatment was globally well tolerated. Most common grade 3-4 toxicities were neutropenia (20.9 %), peripheral neuropathy (3.9 %), anaemia (1.6 %), liver dysfunction (0.8 %) and thrombocytopenia (0.4 %). Thirteen patients (5 %) developed febrile neutropenia. CONCLUSION: EM is an effective new option in heavily pretreated MBC, with a favourable efficacy/safety ratio in a clinical practice setting. Our results comfort the use of this new molecule and pledge for the evaluation of EM-trastuzumab combination in this setting. Tumour biology, primary taxanes sensitivity and metastatic sites could represent useful predictive and prognostic factors.

Comprehensive Molecular Portraits of Invasive Lobular Breast Cancer.

Invasive lobular carcinoma (ILC) is the second most prevalent histologic subtype of invasive breast cancer. Here, we comprehensively profiled 817 breast tumors, including 127 ILC, 490 ductal (IDC), and 88 mixed IDC/ILC. Besides E-cadherin loss, the best known ILC genetic hallmark, we identified mutations targeting PTEN, TBX3, and FOXA1 as ILC enriched features. PTEN loss associated with increased AKT phosphorylation, which was highest in ILC among all breast cancer subtypes. Spatially clustered FOXA1 mutations correlated with increased FOXA1 expression and activity. Conversely, GATA3 mutations and high expression characterized luminal A IDC, suggesting differential modulation of ER activity in ILC and IDC. Proliferation and immune-related signatures determined three ILC transcriptional subtypes associated with survival differences. Mixed IDC/ILC cases were molecularly classified as ILC-like and IDC-like revealing no true hybrid features. This multidimensional molecular atlas sheds new light on the genetic bases of ILC and provides potential clinical options.