May increasing incidence of breast cancer be related to overdiagnosis? : a population-based study

Background: Breast cancer is the first cause of cancer in women in Switzerland. While breast cancer mortality has sharply decreased in the two last decades in Switzerland, the incidence of breast cancer has increased during the same period. Various reasons for this increase have been hypothesized, such as the increase in the prevalence of obesity, the use of postmenauposal hormone replacement therapy, or a later age for having a first child. Overdiagnosis secondary to screening and any other forms of early detection procedures could be also involved. Analyses of breast cancer by stage can help evaluate if overdiagnosis could have contributed to the increase in the incidence of breast cancer. Methods: We used data from the Valais cancer registry at the Observatoire valaisan de la santé (www.ovs.ch). This population based registry collects data on all new (incident) cases of cancer diagnosed in women living in one canton of Switzerland, Valais. Cancers are coded according to the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology (ICD-O-3) and the stages are coded according to the TNM classification. Information on breast cancer stage (in situ: 0; invasive: I, II, III, IV) was available for all cases recorded between 1993 and 2011 (N=4246). Standardized rates of breast cancer were computed (direct standardization on European population).