Weather variability and influenza A (H7N9) transmission in Shanghai, China: A Bayesian spatial analysis

Abstract Background A novel avian influenza A (H7N9) virus was first found in humans in Shanghai, and infected over 433 patients in China. To date, very little is known about the spatiotemporal variability or environmental drivers of the risk of H7N9 infection. This study explored the spatial and temporal variation of H7N9 infection and assessed the effects of temperature and rainfall on H7N9 incidence. Methods A Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) model was used to assess the spatiotemporal distribution of the risk of H7N9 infection in Shanghai, by district and fortnight for the period 19th February–14th April 2013. Data on daily laboratory-confirmed H7N9 cases, and weather variability including temperature (°C) and rainfall (mm) were obtained from the Chinese Information System for Diseases Control and Prevention and Chinese Meteorological Data Sharing Service System, respectively, and aggregated by fortnight. Results High spatial variations in the H7N9 risk were mainly observed in the east and centre of Shanghai municipality. H7N9 incidence rate was significantly associated with fortnightly mean temperature (Relative Risk (RR): 1.54; 95% credible interval (CI): 1.22–1.94) and fortnightly mean rainfall (RR: 2.86; 95% CI: 1.47–5.56). Conclusion There was a substantial variation in the spatiotemporal distribution of H7N9 infection across different districts in Shanghai. Optimal temperature and rainfall may be one of the driving forces for H7N9.

Spatiotemporal analysis of indigenous and imported dengue fever cases in Guangdong province, China

Background Dengue fever has been a major public health concern in China since it re-emerged in Guangdong province in 1978. This study aimed to explore spatiotemporal characteristics of dengue fever cases for both indigenous and imported cases during recent years in Guangdong province, so as to identify high-risk areas of the province and thereby help plan resource allocation for dengue interventions. Methods Notifiable cases of dengue fever were collected from all 123 counties of Guangdong province from 2005 to 2010. Descriptive temporal and spatial analysis were conducted, including plotting of seasonal distribution of cases, and creating choropleth maps of cumulative incidence by county. The space-time scan statistic was used to determine space-time clusters of dengue fever cases at the county level, and a geographical information system was used to visualize the location of the clusters. Analysis were stratified by imported and indigenous origin. Results 1658 dengue fever cases were recorded in Guangdong province during the study period, including 94 imported cases and 1564 indigenous cases. Both imported and indigenous cases occurred more frequently in autumn. The areas affected by the indigenous and imported cases presented a geographically expanding trend over the study period. The results showed that the most likely cluster of imported cases (relative risk = 7.52, p < 0.001) and indigenous cases (relative risk = 153.56, p < 0.001) occurred in the Pearl River Delta Area; while a secondary cluster of indigenous cases occurred in one district of the Chao Shan Area (relative risk = 471.25, p < 0.001). Conclusions This study demonstrated that the geographic range of imported and indigenous dengue fever cases has expanded over recent years, and cases were significantly clustered in two heavily urbanised areas of Guangdong province. This provides the foundation for further investigation of risk factors and interventions in these high-risk areas.

Enablers of sense-making and responding and their impact on the effectiveness of management accounting practices

Management accounting practices are expected to adapt and evolve with changing information requirements. The purpose of this study is to determine the factors that enable management accounting adaptability and effectiveness. This study identifies three factors that drive management accounting adaptability through their support of sense-making and responding. Specifically, it is examined how top management team knowledge, team-based structures, and information system flexibility affect management accounting adaptability. The hypotheses are tested using data collected from an online survey of Australian and New Zealand companies. The results support the proposed relationships. Also a positive association between management accounting adaptability and management accounting effectiveness was found. This empirical study contributes to the literature on management accounting change by determining a number of drivers that improve upon the agility of organizational management accounting practices.

Infrastructure, investment and development evaluation: A Complex Stakeholder Perception Mapping approach for improving local and regional economic development outcomes

Partial evaluation of infrastructure investments have resulted in expensive mistakes, unsatisfactory outcomes and increased uncertainties for too many stakeholders, communities and economies in both developing and developed nations. "Complex Stakeholder Perception Mapping" (CSPM), is a novel approach that can address existing limitations by inclusively framing, capturing and mapping the spectrum of insights and perceptions using extended Geographic Information Systems. Maps generated in CSPM offer presentations of flexibly combined, complex perceptions of stakeholders on multiple aspects of development. CSPM extends the applications of GIS software in non-spatial mapping and of Multi-Criteria Analysis with a multidimensional evaluation platform and augments decision science capabilities in addressing complexities. Application of CSPM can improve local and regional economic gains from infrastructure projects and aid any multi-objective and multi-stakeholder decision situations.

Estimating the under-reporting of road crash injuries to police using multiple linked data collections

The reliance on police data for the counting of road crash injuries can be problematic, as it is well known that not all road crash injuries are reported to police which under-estimates the overall burden of road crash injuries. The aim of this study was to use multiple linked data sources to estimate the extent of under-reporting of road crash injuries to police in the Australian state of Queensland. Data from the Queensland Road Crash Database (QRCD), the Queensland Hospital Admitted Patients Data Collection (QHAPDC), Emergency Department Information System (EDIS), and the Queensland Injury Surveillance Unit (QISU) for the year 2009 were linked. The completeness of road crash cases reported to police was examined via discordance rates between the police data (QRCD) and the hospital data collections. In addition, the potential bias of this discordance (under-reporting) was assessed based on gender, age, road user group, and regional location. Results showed that the level of under-reporting varied depending on the data set with which the police data was compared. When all hospital data collections are examined together the estimated population of road crash injuries was approximately 28,000, with around two-thirds not linking to any record in the police data. The results also showed that the under-reporting was more likely for motorcyclists, cyclists, males, young people, and injuries occurring in Remote and Inner Regional areas. These results have important implications for road safety research and policy in terms of: prioritising funding and resources; targeting road safety interventions into areas of higher risk; and estimating the burden of road crash injuries.

Medical Data Access Accountability in EHR Systems, A Practical Perspective

The world has experienced a large increase in the amount of available data. Therefore, it requires better and more specialized tools for data storage and retrieval and information privacy. Recently Electronic Health Record (EHR) Systems have emerged to fulfill this need in health systems. They play an important role in medicine by granting access to information that can be used in medical diagnosis. Traditional systems have a focus on the storage and retrieval of this information, usually leaving issues related to privacy in the background. Doctors and patients may have different objectives when using an EHR system: patients try to restrict sensible information in their medical records to avoid misuse information while doctors want to see as much information as possible to ensure a correct diagnosis. One solution to this dilemma is the Accountable e-Health model, an access protocol model based in the Information Accountability Protocol. In this model patients are warned when doctors access their restricted data. They also enable a non-restrictive access for authenticated doctors. In this work we use FluxMED, an EHR system, and augment it with aspects of the Information Accountability Protocol to address these issues. The Implementation of the Information Accountability Framework (IAF) in FluxMED provides ways for both patients and physicians to have their privacy and access needs achieved. Issues related to storage and data security are secured by FluxMED, which contains mechanisms to ensure security and data integrity. The effort required to develop a platform for the management of medical information is mitigated by the FluxMED's workflow-based architecture: the system is flexible enough to allow the type and amount of information being altered without the need to change in your source code.

Spatiotemporal transmission dynamics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China, 2005-2012

Background Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a rodent-borne disease caused by many serotypes of hantaviruses. In China, HFRS has been recognized as a severe public health problem with 90% of the total reported cases in the world. This study describes the spatiotemporal dynamics of HFRS cases in China and identifies the regions, time, and populations at highest risk, which could help the planning and implementation of key preventative measures. Methods Data on all reported HFRS cases at the county level from January 2005 to December 2012 were collected from Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Geographic Information System-based spatiotemporal analyses including Local Indicators of Spatial Association and Kulldorff's space-time scan statistic were performed to detect local high-risk space-time clusters of HFRS in China. In addition, cases from high-risk and low-risk counties were compared to identify significant demographic differences. Results A total of 100,868 cases were reported during 2005–2012 in mainland China. There were significant variations in the spatiotemporal dynamics of HFRS. HFRS cases occurred most frequently in June, November, and December. There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of HFRS incidence during the study periods, with Moran's I values ranging from 0.46 to 0.56 (P<0.05). Several distinct HFRS cluster areas were identified, mainly concentrated in northeastern, central, and eastern of China. Compared with cases from low-risk areas, a higher proportion of cases were younger, non-farmer, and floating residents in high-risk counties. Conclusions This study identified significant space-time clusters of HFRS in China during 2005–2012 indicating that preventative strategies for HFRS should be particularly focused on the northeastern, central, and eastern of China to achieve the most cost-effective outcomes.

Tracking the patient journey by combining multiple hospital database systems

With new national targets for patient flow in public hospitals designed to increase efficiencies in patient care and resource use, better knowledge of events affecting length of stay will support improved bed management and scheduling of procedures. This paper presents a case study involving the integration of material from each of three databases in operation at one tertiary hospital and demonstrates it is possible to follow patient journeys from admission to discharge. What is known about this topic? At present, patient data at one Queensland tertiary hospital are assembled in three information systems: (1) the Hospital Based Corporate Information System (HBCIS), which tracks patients from in-patient admission to discharge; (2) the Emergency Department Information System (EDIS) containing patient data from presentation to departure from the emergency department; and (3) Operation Room Management Information System (ORMIS), which records surgical operations. What does this paper add? This paper describes how a new enquiry tool may be used to link the three hospital information systems for studying the hospital journey through different wards and/or operating theatres for both individual and groups of patients. What are the implications for practitioners? An understanding of the patients’ journeys provides better insight into patient flow and provides the tool for research relating to access block, as well as optimising the use of physical and human resources.

Hot spot detection and spatio-temporal dynamics of dengue in Queensland, Australia

Dengue has been a major public health concern in Australia since it re-emerged in Queensland in 1992-1993. This study explored spatio-temporal distribution and clustering of locally-acquired dengue cases in Queensland State, Australia and identified target areas for effective interventions. A computerised locally-acquired dengue case dataset was collected from Queensland Health for Queensland from 1993 to 2012. Descriptive spatial and temporal analyses were conducted using geographic information system tools and geostatistical techniques. Dengue hot spots were detected using SatScan method. Descriptive spatial analysis showed that a total of 2,398 locally-acquired dengue cases were recorded in central and northern regions of tropical Queensland. A seasonal pattern was observed with most of the cases occurring in autumn. Spatial and temporal variation of dengue cases was observed in the geographic areas affected by dengue over time. Tropical areas are potential high-risk areas for mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue. This study demonstrated that the locally-acquired dengue cases have exhibited a spatial and temporal variation over the past twenty years in tropical Queensland, Australia. There is a clear evidence for the existence of statistically significant clusters of dengue and these clusters varied over time. These findings enabled us to detect and target dengue clusters suggesting that the use of geospatial information can assist the health authority in planning dengue control activities and it would allow for better design and implementation of dengue management programs.

How serious are they? The use of data linkage to explore different definitions of serious road crash injuries

Over recent years, the focus in road safety has shifted towards a greater understanding of road crash serious injuries in addition to fatalities. Police reported crash data are often the primary source of crash information; however, the definition of serious injury within these data is not consistent across jurisdictions and may not be accurately operationalised. This study examined the linkage of police-reported road crash data with hospital data to explore the potential for linked data to enhance the quantification of serious injury. Data from the Queensland Road Crash Database (QRCD), the Queensland Hospital Admitted Patients Data Collection (QHAPDC), Emergency Department Information System (EDIS), and the Queensland Injury Surveillance Unit (QISU) for the year 2009 were linked. Nine different estimates of serious road crash injury were produced. Results showed that there was a large amount of variation in the estimates of the number and profile of serious road crash injuries depending on the definition or measure used. The results also showed that as the definition of serious injury becomes more precise the vulnerable road users become more prominent. These results have major implications in terms of how serious injuries are identified for reporting purposes. Depending on the definitions used, the calculation of cost and understanding of the impact of serious injuries would vary greatly. This study has shown how data linkage can be used to investigate issues of data quality. It has also demonstrated the potential improvements to the understanding of the road safety problem, particularly serious injury, by conducting data linkage.

Infant product-related injuries: comparing specialised injury surveillance and routine emergency department data

- Objective To explore the potential for using a basic text search of routine emergency department data to identify product-related injury in infants and to compare the patterns from routine ED data and specialised injury surveillance data. - Methods Data was sourced from the Emergency Department Information System (EDIS) and the Queensland Injury Surveillance Unit (QISU) for all injured infants between 2009 and 2011. A basic text search was developed to identify the top five infant products in QISU. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value were calculated and a refined search was used with EDIS. Results were manually reviewed to assess validity. Descriptive analysis was conducted to examine patterns between datasets. - Results The basic text search for all products showed high sensitivity and specificity, and most searches showed high positive predictive value. EDIS patterns were similar to QISU patterns with strikingly similar month-of-age injury peaks, admission proportions and types of injuries. - Conclusions This study demonstrated a capacity to identify a sample of valid cases of product-related injuries for specified products using simple text searching of routine ED data. - Implications As the capacity for large datasets grows and the capability to reliably mine text improves, opportunities for expanded sources of injury surveillance data increase. This will ultimately assist stakeholders such as consumer product safety regulators and child safety advocates to appropriately target prevention initiatives.

Using an ‘interpretative model’ for contextual design of heritage landscape databases: The case of St Helena Island National Park in Queensland, Australia

Due to the increasing speed of landscape changes and the massive development of computer technologies, the methods of representing heritage landscapes using digital tools have become a worldwide concern in conservation research. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate how an ‘interpretative model’ can be used for contextual design of heritage landscape information systems. This approach is explored through building a geographic information system database for St Helena Island national park in Moreton Bay, South East Queensland, Australia. Stakeholders' interpretations of this landscape were collected through interviews, and then used as a framework for designing the database. The designed database is a digital inventory providing contextual descriptions of the historic infrastructure remnants on St Helena Island. It also reveals the priorities of different sites in terms of historic research, landscape restoration, and tourism development. Additionally, this database produces thematic maps of the intangible heritage values, which could be used for landscape interpretation. This approach is different from the existing methods because building a heritage information system is deemed as an interpretative activity, rather than a value-free replication of the physical environment. This approach also shows how a cultural landscape methodology can be used to create a flexible information system for heritage conservation. The conclusion is that an ‘interpretative model’ of database design facilitates a more explicit focus on information support, and is a potentially effective approach to user-centred design of geographic information systems.

Poisoning for production: how effective is fox baiting in south-eastern Australia?

1. The European red fox Vulpes vulpes represents a continuing threat to both livestock and native vertebrates in Australia, and is commonly managed by setting ground-level baits impregnated with 1080 (sodium fluoroacetate) poison. However, the long-term effectiveness of such control campaigns is likely to be limited due to the ability of foxes to disperse over considerable distances and to swiftly recolonize areas from where they had been removed. 2. To investigate the effectiveness of fox baiting in a production landscape, we assessed the potential for foxes to reinvade baited farm property areas within the jurisdiction of the Molong Rural Lands Protection Board (RLPB), an area of 815 000 ha on the central tablelands of New South Wales, Australia. The spatial distribution and timing of fox baiting campaigns between 1998 and 2002 was estimated from RLPB records and mapped using Geographical Information System software. The effectiveness of the control campaign was assessed on the basis of the likely immigration of foxes from non-baited farms using immigration distances calculated from published relationships between dispersal distance and home range size. 3. Few landholders undertook baiting campaigns in any given year, and the area baited was always so small that no baited property would have been sufficiently far from an unbaited property to have been immune from immigrating individuals. It is likely, therefore, that immigration onto farms negated any long-term effects of baiting operations. This study highlights some of the key deficiencies in current baiting practices in south-eastern Australia and suggests that pest management programmes should be monitored using such methods to ensure they achieve their goals.

Liquefaction Hazard Mapping of Bangalore, South India

his paper presents identification and mapping of vulnerable and safe zones for liquefaction hazard. About 850 bore logs data collected from geotechnical investigation reports have been used to estimate the liquefaction factor of safety for Bangalore Mahanagara palike (BMP) area of about 220 km(2). Liquefaction factor of safety is arrived based on surface level peak ground acceleration presented by Anbazhagan and Sitharam(5) and liquefaction resistance, using corrected standard penetration test (SPT) N values. The estimated factor of safety against liquefaction is used to estimate liquefaction potential index and liquefaction severity index. These values are mapped using Geographical information system (GIS) to identify the vulnerable and safe zones in Bangalore. This study shows that more than 95% of the BMP area is safe against liquefaction potential. However the western part of the BMP is not safe against liquefaction, as it may be subjected to liquefaction with probability of 35 to 65%. Three approaches used in this study show that 1) mapping least factor of safety irrespective of depth may be used to find liquefiable area for worst case. 2) mapping liquefaction potential index can be used to assess the liquefaction severity of the area by considering layer thickness and factor of safety and 3) mapping of liquefaction severity index can be used to access the probability of liquefaction of area.

Surveillance protocols for management of invasive plants: modelling Chilean needle grass (Nassella neesiana) in Australia

Aim: To develop a surveillance support model that enables prediction of areas susceptible to invasion, comparative analysis of surveillance methods and intensity and assessment of eradication feasibility. To apply the model to identify surveillance protocols for generalized invasion scenarios and for evaluating surveillance and control for a context-specific plant invasion. Location: Australia. Methods: We integrate a spatially explicit simulation model, including plant demography and dispersal vectors, within a Geographical Information System. We use the model to identify effective surveillance protocols using simulations of generalized plant life-forms spreading via different dispersal mechanisms in real landscapes. We then parameterize the surveillance support model for Chilean needle grass [CNG; Nassella neesiana (Trin. & Rupr.) Barkworth], a highly invasive tussock grass, which is an eradication target in south-eastern Queensland, Australia. Results: General surveillance protocols that can guide rapid response surveillance were identified; suitable habitat that is susceptible to invasion through particular dispersal syndromes should be targeted for surveillance using an adaptive seek-and-destroy method. The search radius of the adaptive method should be based on maximum expected dispersal distances. Protocols were used to define a surveillance strategy for CNG, but simulations indicated that despite effective and targeted surveillance, eradication is implausible at current intensities. Main conclusions: Several important surveillance protocols emerged and simulations indicated that effectiveness can be increased if they are followed in rapid response surveillance. If sufficient data are available, the surveillance support model should be parameterized to target areas susceptible to invasion and determine whether surveillance is effective and eradication is feasible. We discovered that for CNG, regardless of a carefully designed surveillance strategy, eradication is implausible at current intensities of surveillance and control and these efforts should be doubled if they are to be successful. This is crucial information in the face of environmentally and economically damaging invasive species and large, expensive and potentially ineffective control programmes.