Effetti degli accordi Euro-Mediterrani sul comparto dell'ortofrutta fresca

In 1995, the European Union (EU) Member States and 12 Mediterranean countries launched in Barcelona a liberalization process that aims at establishing a free trade area (to be realized by 2010) and at promoting a sustainable and balanced economic development by the adoption of a new generation of Agreements: the Euro-Mediterranean Agreements (EMA). For the Mediterranean partner countries, the main concern is a better access for their fruit and vegetable exports to the European market. These products represent the main exports of these countries, and the EU is their first trading partner. On the other side, for the EU the main issue is not only the promotion of its products, but also the protection of its fruit and vegetables producers. Moreover, the trade with third countries is the key element of the Common Market Organization of the sector. Fruit and vegetables represent a very sensitive sector since their high seasonality, high perishability, and especially since the production of the Mediterranean countries is often similar to the European Mediterranean’s countries one. In fact, the agreements define preferences at the entrance of the EU market providing limited concessions for each partner, for specific products, limited quantities and calendars. This research tries to analyze the bilateral trade volume for fresh fruit and vegetables in the European and Italian markets in order to assess the effects of Mediterranean liberalization on this sector. Free trade of agricultural products represents a very actual topic in international trade and the Mediterranean countries, recognised as big producers of fruit and vegetables, as big exporters of their crops and actually significantly present on the European market, could be high competitors with the inward production because the outlet could be the same. The goal of this study is to provide some considerations about the competitiveness of mediterranean fruit and vegetables productions after Barcelona Process, in a first step for the European market and then also for the Italian one. The aim is to discuss the influence of the euro-mediterranean agreements on the fruit and vegetables trade between 10 foreign Mediterranean countries (Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia, Syria, and Turkey) and 15 EU countries in the period 1995-2007, by means of a gravity model, which is a widespread methodology in international trade analysis. The basic idea of gravity models is that bilateral trade from one country to another (as the dependent variable) can be explained by a set of factors: - factors that capture the potential of a country to export goods and services; - factors that capture the propensity of a country to imports goods and services; - any other forces that either attract or inhibit bilateral trade. This analysis compares only imports’ flows by Europe and by Italy (in volumes) from Mediterranean countries, since the exports’ flows toward those foreign countries are not significant, especially for Italy. The market of fruit and vegetables appears as a high heterogeneous group so it is very difficult to show a synthesis of the analysis performed and the related results. In fact, this sector includes the so called “poor products” (such as potatoes and legumes), and the “rich product”, such as nuts or exotic fruit, and there are a lot of different goods that arouse a dissimilar consumer demand which directly influence the import requirements. Fruit and vegetables sector includes products with extremely different biological cycles, leading to a very unlike seasonality. Moreover, the Mediterranean area appears as a highly heterogeneous bloc, including countries which differ from the others for economic size, production potential, capability to export and for the relationships with the EU. The econometric estimation includes 68 analyses, 34 of which considering the European import and 34 the Italian import and the products are examined in their aggregated form and in their disaggregated level. The analysis obtains a very high R2 coefficient, which means that the methodology is able to assess the import effects on fruit and vegetables associated to the Association Agreements, preferential tariffs, regional integration, and others information involved in the equation. The empirical analysis suggests that fruits and vegetables trade flows are well explained by some parameters: size of the involved countries (especially GDP and population of the Mediterranean countries); distances; prices of imported products; local production for the aggregated products; preferential expressed tariffs like duty free; sub-regional agreements that enforce the export capability. The euro-mediterranean agreements are significant in some of the performed analysis, confirming the slow and gradual evolution of euro- Mediterranean liberalization. The euro-mediterranean liberalization provides opportunities from one side, and imposes a new important challenge from the other side. For the EU the chance is that fruit and vegetables imported from the mediterranean area represent a support for local supply and a possibility to increase the range of products existing on the market. The challenge regards the competition of foreign products with the local ones since the types of productions are similar and markets coincide, especially in the Italian issue. We need to apply a strategy based not on a trade antagonism, but on the realization of a common plane market with the Mediterranean countries. This goal could be achieved enhancing the industrial cooperation in addition to commercial relationships, and increasing investments’ flows in the Mediterranean countries aiming at transforming those countries from potential competitors to trade partners and creating new commercial policies to export towards extra European countries.

La cooperazione agroalimentare associata in Italia: dimensioni, caratteristiche e comportamenti, con focalizzazione sull'impresa cooperativa orientata all'export

La tesi compie un'analisi sul ruolo della cooperazione nei mercati esteri, focalizzandosi, da un lato, sullo studio dei flussi di export nei settori dell'agroalimentare caratterizzati da una forte presenza cooperativa e, dall'altro, sulle caratteristiche di struttura ed i comportamenti delle imprese cooperative esportatrici e non esportatrici. A tal fine è stata realizzata un'indagine diretta che ha coinvolto un campione di 516 cooperative agroalimentari, delle quali 162 esportatrici e 354 non esportatrici. Sulla base dei risultati dell'indagine è stato possibile analizzare le caratteristiche strutturali ed i comportamenti delle cooperative non esportatrici ed esportatrici, focalizzandosi successivamente sulle modalità  di accesso al mercato estero delle cooperative esportatrici ed infine approfondendo le motivazioni che ostacolano l'export nelle cooperative non esportatrici.

A Multilevel Model with Time Series Components for the Analysis of Tribal Art Prices

In the present work we perform an econometric analysis of the Tribal art market. To this aim, we use a unique and original database that includes information on Tribal art market auctions worldwide from 1998 to 2011. In Literature, art prices are modelled through the hedonic regression model, a classic fixed-effect model. The main drawback of the hedonic approach is the large number of parameters, since, in general, art data include many categorical variables. In this work, we propose a multilevel model for the analysis of Tribal art prices that takes into account the influence of time on artwork prices. In fact, it is natural to assume that time exerts an influence over the price dynamics in various ways. Nevertheless, since the set of objects change at every auction date, we do not have repeated measurements of the same items over time. Hence, the dataset does not constitute a proper panel; rather, it has a two-level structure in that items, level-1 units, are grouped in time points, level-2 units. The main theoretical contribution is the extension of classical multilevel models to cope with the case described above. In particular, we introduce a model with time dependent random effects at the second level. We propose a novel specification of the model, derive the maximum likelihood estimators and implement them through the E-M algorithm. We test the finite sample properties of the estimators and the validity of the own-written R-code by means of a simulation study. Finally, we show that the new model improves considerably the fit of the Tribal art data with respect to both the hedonic regression model and the classic multilevel model.

International Agricultural Trade under Regulatory Asymmetry: An Economic Analysis of SME Export Behavior

Over the last three decades, international agricultural trade has grown significantly. Technological advances in transportation logistics and storage have created opportunities to ship anything almost anywhere. Bilateral and multilateral trade agreements have also opened new pathways to an increasingly global market place. Yet, international agricultural trade is often constrained by differences in regulatory regimes. The impact of “regulatory asymmetry” is particularly acute for small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) that lack resources and expertise to successfully operate in markets that have substantially different regulatory structures. As governments seek to encourage the development of SMEs, policy makers often confront the critical question of what ultimately motivates SME export behavior. Specifically, there is considerable interest in understanding how SMEs confront the challenges of regulatory asymmetry. Neoclassical models of the firm generally emphasize expected profit maximization under uncertainty, however these approaches do not adequately explain the entrepreneurial decision under regulatory asymmetry. Behavioral theories of the firm offer a far richer understanding of decision making by taking into account aspirations and adaptive performance in risky environments. This paper develops an analytical framework for decision making of a single agent. Considering risk, uncertainty and opportunity cost, the analysis focuses on the export behavior response of an SME in a situation of regulatory asymmetry. Drawing on the experience of fruit processor in Muzaffarpur, India, who must consider different regulatory environments when shipping fruit treated with sulfur dioxide, the study dissects the firm-level decision using @Risk, a Monte Carlo computational tool.

Der irische Buchmarkt

Der irische Buchmarkt als Teil des englischsprachigen Buchmarktes ist stark von der Geschichte des Landes geprägt. Die Fremdbestimmung im Rahmen des Commonwealth unterdrückte eine eigenständige Verlagslandschaft bis weit ins 20. Jahrhundert hinein. Mit der Unabhängigkeit des irischen Staates stieg die Anzahl der Verlage langsam aber stetig an. In den 70er Jahren kam die irische Verlagslandschaft zu einem fast explosionsartigen Erblühen. Die Gründung des Verlegerverbandes Clé war einer von vielen Schritten, um den nationalen Buchmarkt von der Dominanz britischer Bücher in Buchhandlungen und Bibliotheken zu emanzipieren. Die Nachfrage nach Irish-Interest-Titeln ist im Inland hoch. Britische Verlage hatten bis dato diesen Bedarf übersehen, und so füllten irische Verlage diese Nische. Die Einführung eines von Großbritannien unabhängigen Lehrplans führte zur Etablierung eines eigenständigen Schulbuchmarktes, inklusive Lehrwerke zur irischen Sprache bzw. Titel auf Irisch. Irische Verlage sind in ihrem Programm größtenteils breit aufgestellt und selten spezialisiert. Sie sind erstaunlich häufig unabhängige mittelständische Unternehmen. Nur wenige Verlage sind staatlich geführt oder gehören ausländischen Konzernen an. Auch der stationäre Buchhandel ist überwiegend eigenständig, da die – vor dem Wirtschaftsboom wenig kaufkräftige - Republik von den expandierenden britischen Buchhandelsketten vernachlässigt wurde. Erst nach dem Wirtschaftsboom und dem damit verbundenen soziokulturellen Wandel von einer traditionellen Agrar- hin zu einer modernen Informationsgesellschaft stiegen die Umsätze mit Büchern stark an. Sobald der Buchmarkt eine nennenswerte wirtschaftliche Größe erreichte, eröffneten britische Buchhandlungen Filialen in irischen Städten. Sie vermochten jedoch nicht, die Sortimentsvielfalt der irischen Buchhandelslandschaft zu zerstören. Die fehlende Buchpreisbindung ist keine Bedrohung der Titelvielfalt, da Handelsformen wie Buchclubs, Supermärkte und Internethandel – die mit teils aggressivem Preismarketing arbeitenden Nebenmärkte – hier nur eine Randexistenz führen. In diesem Fall wandelt sich die geringe (Umsatz-) Größe und damit Attraktivität des Buchmarktes zum Vorteil. Die staatliche Kulturförderung ist ein bedeutender Beitrag zum Verlegen von Literatur, die wirtschaftlich gerechnet keine Daseinsberechtigung hätte. Irische Verleger mit relativ geringem Budget sind nicht in der Lage, solche unökonomischen Titel mit dem finanziellen Erfolg eines Bestsellers in Mischkalkulation aufzufangen. Hier greift die staatliche Unterstützung. Die Subventionierung von Titeln über die irischen Sprache bzw. von Literatur auf Irisch führte zur Herausbildung eines Marktsektors, der vor der Staatsgründung nicht existierte. Die Übersetzungsförderung verstärkt die Verbreitung von bis dato unbekannter irischer Literatur im Ausland und stimuliert das Lizenzgeschäft. Die aktuelle staatliche Kulturpolitik setzt ihren Schwerpunkt auf Marketing, PR sowie Nachfolgeregelung und fördert so nachhaltig statt bloß in Form einer kurzlebigen Titelsubvention. Eine noch mehr in die Zukunft gerichtete Förderung würde genauso wie die Unterstützung von Fortbildungsmaßnahmen zu besseren wirtschaftlichen Rahmenbedingungen führen. Auch wenn die nationale Verlagsszene im Aufschwung begriffen ist, befindet sich der irische Buchmarkt insgesamt in fester Hand der britischen Verlagsproduktion. Der britische Buchmarkt mit seinen multinationalen und finanzkräftigen Verlagen lebt vom Export. Aus Sicht von Großbritannien ist heutzutage der Nachbar Irland, einst Teil des britischen Buchmarktes, einer der besten Kunden. Dieser Aspekt bezieht sich nicht nur auf die langjährig entwickelten Handelsbeziehungen. In kulturellen Aspekten orientiert sich Irland stark am britischen Vorbild: Ein britischer Bestseller wird fast immer auch ein Bestseller in Irland. Lediglich Irish-Interest-Titel durchbrechen diesen Automatismus. Während Irish Interest im Inland hohe Umsätze vorweist, sind diese Titel im Ausland lediglich ein Nischenprodukt. Zusätzlich müssen irische Verlage außerhalb des Landes mit britischen und US-amerikanischen Verlagen in Konkurrenz treten, die ebenfalls Irish-Interest-Titel für die irische Diaspora anbieten. Es besteht daher nur eine geringe Chance, erfolgreich am globalen englischsprachigen Buchmarkt mitzuwirken. Bis dato haben Versuche, dem irischen Buchmarkt durch Export zu Umsatzwachstum zu verhelfen, keinen nennenswerten Erfolg gebracht. Lediglich auf dem Gebiet der populären Literatur und in Form von Kooperationen mit britischen Verlagskonzernen vermögen irische Verlage, am internationalen Buchhandel teilzuhaben.

Export Supply Chain Organization and Food Safety and Quality Standards: a case study of the Moroccan Fruit and Vegetable Sector

Agri-food supply chains extend beyond national boundaries, partially facilitated by a policy environment that encourages more liberal international trade. Rising concentration within the downstream sector has driven a shift towards “buyer-driven” global value chains (GVCs) extending internationally with global sourcing and the emergence of multinational key economic players that compete with increase emphasis on product quality attributes. Agri-food systems are thus increasingly governed by a range of inter-related public and private standards, both of which are becoming a priori mandatory, especially in supply chains for high-value and quality-differentiated agri-food products and tend to strongly affect upstream agricultural practices, firms’ internal organization and strategic behaviour and to shape the food chain organization. Notably, increasing attention has been given to the impact of SPS measures on agri-food trade and notably on developing countries’ export performance. Food and agricultural trade is the vital link in the mutual dependency of the global trade system and developing countries. Hence, developing countries derive a substantial portion of their income from food and agricultural trade. In Morocco, fruit and vegetable (especially fresh) are the primary agricultural export. Because of the labor intensity, this sector (especially citrus and tomato) is particularly important in terms of income and employment generation, especially for the female laborers hired in the farms and packing houses. Hence, the emergence of agricultural and agrifood product safety issues and the subsequent tightening of market requirements have challenged mutual gains due to the lack of technical and financial capacities of most developing countries.

Orthogonal gamma-based expansions for volatility option prices under jump-diffusion dynamics

In my work I derive closed-form pricing formulas for volatility based options by suitably approximating the volatility process risk-neutral density function. I exploit and adapt the idea, which stands behind popular techniques already employed in the context of equity options such as Edgeworth and Gram-Charlier expansions, of approximating the underlying process as a sum of some particular polynomials weighted by a kernel, which is typically a Gaussian distribution. I propose instead a Gamma kernel to adapt the methodology to the context of volatility options. VIX vanilla options closed-form pricing formulas are derived and their accuracy is tested for the Heston model (1993) as well as for the jump-diffusion SVJJ model proposed by Duffie et al. (2000).

Market Prices and Food Aid Local and Regional Procurement and Distribution: A Multi-Country Analysis

To date, no research has rigorously addressed the concern that local and regional procurement (LRP) of food aid could affect food prices and food price volatility in food aid source and recipient countries. We assemble spatially and temporally disaggregated data and estimate the relationship between food prices and their volatility and local food aid procurement and distribution across seven countries for several commodities. In most cases, LRP activities have no statistically significant relationship with either local price levels or food price volatility. The few exceptions underscore the importance of market monitoring. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.