955 resultados para Expectation-conditional Maximization (ecm)
Resumo:
The concentration of hydrogen peroxide is an important parameter in the azo dyes decoloration process through the utilization of advanced oxidizing processes, particularly by oxidizing via UV/H2O2. It is pointed out that, from a specific concentration, the hydrogen peroxide works as a hydroxyl radical self-consumer and thus a decrease of the system`s oxidizing power happens. The determination of the process critical point (maximum amount of hydrogen peroxide to be added) was performed through a ""thorough mapping"" or discretization of the target region, founded on the maximization of an objective function objective (constant of reaction kinetics of pseudo-first order). The discretization of the operational region occurred through a feedforward backpropagation neural model. The neural model obtained presented remarkable coefficient of correlation between real and predicted values for the absorbance variable, above 0.98. In the present work, the neural model had, as phenomenological basis the Acid Brown 75 dye decoloration process. The hydrogen peroxide addition critical point, represented by a value of mass relation (F) between the hydrogen peroxide mass and the dye mass, was established in the interval 50 < F < 60. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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The conditions for maximization of the enzymatic activity of lipase entrapped in sol-gel matrix were determined for different vegetable oils using an experimental design. The effects of pH, temperature, and biocatalyst loading on lipase activity were verified using a central composite experimental design leading to a set of 13 assays and the surface response analysis. For canola oil and entrapped lipase, statistical analyses showed significant effects for pH and temperature and also the interactions between pH and temperature and temperature and biocatalyst loading. For the olive oil and entrapped lipase, it was verified that the pH was the only variable statistically significant. This study demonstrated that response surface analysis is a methodology appropriate for the maximization of the percentage of hydrolysis, as a function of pH, temperature, and lipase loading.
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This paper investigates the validity of a simplified equivalent reservoir representation of a multi-reservoir hydroelectric system for modelling its optimal operation for power maximization. This simplification, proposed by Arvanitidis and Rosing (IEEE Trans Power Appar Syst 89(2):319-325, 1970), imputes a potential energy equivalent reservoir with energy inflows and outflows. The hydroelectric system is also modelled for power maximization considering individual reservoir characteristics without simplifications. Both optimization models employed MINOS package for solution of the non-linear programming problems. A comparison between total optimized power generation over the planning horizon by the two methods shows that the equivalent reservoir is capable of producing satisfactory power estimates with less than 6% underestimation. The generation and total reservoir storage trajectories along the planning horizon obtained by equivalent reservoir method, however, presented significant discrepancies as compared to those found in the detailed modelling. This study is motivated by the fact that Brazilian generation system operations are based on the equivalent reservoir method as part of the power dispatch procedures. The potential energy equivalent reservoir is an alternative which eliminates problems with the dimensionality of state variables in a dynamic programming model.
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This paper addresses the development of a hybrid-mixed finite element formulation for the quasi-static geometrically exact analysis of three-dimensional framed structures with linear elastic behavior. The formulation is based on a modified principle of stationary total complementary energy, involving, as independent variables, the generalized vectors of stress-resultants and displacements and, in addition, a set of Lagrange multipliers defined on the element boundaries. The finite element discretization scheme adopted within the framework of the proposed formulation leads to numerical solutions that strongly satisfy the equilibrium differential equations in the elements, as well as the equilibrium boundary conditions. This formulation consists, therefore, in a true equilibrium formulation for large displacements and rotations in space. Furthermore, this formulation is objective, as it ensures invariance of the strain measures under superposed rigid body rotations, and is not affected by the so-called shear-locking phenomenon. Also, the proposed formulation produces numerical solutions which are independent of the path of deformation. To validate and assess the accuracy of the proposed formulation, some benchmark problems are analyzed and their solutions compared with those obtained using the standard two-node displacement/ rotation-based formulation.
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This paper addresses the development of several alternative novel hybrid/multi-field variational formulations of the geometrically exact three-dimensional elastostatic beam boundary-value problem. In the framework of the complementary energy-based formulations, a Legendre transformation is used to introduce the complementary energy density in the variational statements as a function of stresses only. The corresponding variational principles are shown to feature stationarity within the framework of the boundary-value problem. Both weak and linearized weak forms of the principles are presented. The main features of the principles are highlighted, giving special emphasis to their relationships from both theoretical and computational standpoints. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
As many countries are moving toward water sector reforms, practical issues of how water management institutions can better effect allocation, regulation, and enforcement of water rights have emerged. The problem of nonavailability of water to tailenders on an irrigation system in developing countries, due to unlicensed upstream diversions is well documented. The reliability of access or equivalently the uncertainty associated with water availability at their diversion point becomes a parameter that is likely to influence the application by users for water licenses, as well as their willingness to pay for licensed use. The ability of a water agency to reduce this uncertainty through effective water rights enforcement is related to the fiscal ability of the agency to monitor and enforce licensed use. In this paper, this interplay across the users and the agency is explored, considering the hydraulic structure or sequence of water use and parameters that define the users and the agency`s economics. The potential for free rider behavior by the users, as well as their proposals for licensed use are derived conditional on this setting. The analyses presented are developed in the framework of the theory of ""Law and Economics,`` with user interactions modeled as a game theoretic enterprise. The state of Ceara, Brazil, is used loosely as an example setting, with parameter values for the experiments indexed to be approximately those relevant for current decisions. The potential for using the ideas in participatory decision making is discussed. This paper is an initial attempt to develop a conceptual framework for analyzing such situations but with a focus on the reservoir-canal system water rights enforcement.
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In this article, we consider the stochastic optimal control problem of discrete-time linear systems subject to Markov jumps and multiplicative noise under three kinds of performance criterions related to the final value of the expectation and variance of the output. In the first problem it is desired to minimise the final variance of the output subject to a restriction on its final expectation, in the second one it is desired to maximise the final expectation of the output subject to a restriction on its final variance, and in the third one it is considered a performance criterion composed by a linear combination of the final variance and expectation of the output of the system. We present explicit sufficient conditions for the existence of an optimal control strategy for these problems, generalising previous results in the literature. We conclude this article presenting a numerical example of an asset liabilities management model for pension funds with regime switching.
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This paper applies Hierarchical Bayesian Models to price farm-level yield insurance contracts. This methodology considers the temporal effect, the spatial dependence and spatio-temporal models. One of the major advantages of this framework is that an estimate of the premium rate is obtained directly from the posterior distribution. These methods were applied to a farm-level data set of soybean in the State of the Parana (Brazil), for the period between 1994 and 2003. The model selection was based on a posterior predictive criterion. This study improves considerably the estimation of the fair premium rates considering the small number of observations.
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This article considers alternative methods to calculate the fair premium rate of crop insurance contracts based on county yields. The premium rate was calculated using parametric and nonparametric approaches to estimate the conditional agricultural yield density. These methods were applied to a data set of county yield provided by the Statistical and Geography Brazilian Institute (IBGE), for the period of 1990 through 2002, for soybean, corn and wheat, in the State of Paran. In this article, we propose methodological alternatives to pricing crop insurance contracts resulting in more accurate premium rates in a situation of limited data.
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Most researches that have been done until today about the beneficial effects of hariparoha (Pothomorphe umbellata L. Miq) have been done with root extract of this species, but the use in large scale would compromise the sustainable exploration of this natutral resource. In this sense, the utilization of pariparoha leaves, substituting the roots, in the cosmetic industry does not put in risk the existence of the species. In this work the concentration of 4-nerolidyl-cathecol (4-NC) in leaf extract was determined by the analytical methodology validated in our laboratory. The concentration of 4-NC in leaf extract was around 30% less than that of root extract, obtained in the same way. Concerning the study of the photostability of a leaves extract solution containing 4-NC did not demonstrate meaningful alterations in the spectrometry, profile after 2 hours of exposure under UVB radiation, showing its stability under this conditions. Metalloproteinases (MMPs) cure endopeptidases that are zinc-dependent, involved in remodeling extracellular matrix (ECM), that are important in the appearance of typical photoaging wrinkles. In this work the capacity of leaf extract of P. umbellata to inhibit MMP-2 and 9 activities of hairless mouse skin in vitro by zymography gel was also evalutated. The leaf extract (0,1 mg/mL) inhibit in 80% activity of this enzymes, according to the densitometric zymography evaluation.
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Background: The pathophysiology of spontaneous abortion is complex and may involve the interaction of genetic and environmental factors. We evaluated the predictors of spontaneous abortion in Brazilian pregnant women. The effects of age, gestational age. body mass index (BMI), cigarette smoking, alcohol ingestion, use of multivitamins and concentrations of vitamins (folate, cobalamin and vitamin 136) and vitamin-dependent metabolites were analyzed. Methods: Study population included 100 healthy women that attended pre-natal care in 2 health centers of Sao Paulo, Brazil, and in whom pregnancy outcome was known. Folate and cobalamin status was measured in blood specimens collected between 4 and 16 weeks. The genotypes for 8 gene polymorphisms were evaluated by PCR-RFLP. Results: Eighty-eight women had normal pregnancy outcome (Group 1), while 12 experienced a miscarriage after blood collection (Group 2). Increased methylmalonic acid (MMA) concentrations were found in Group 2 (median [25th-75th percentile]=274 [149-425] nmol/l) relative to Group 1 (138 [98-185]) (P<0.01). No differences between the groups were observed for serum cobalamin, serum or red cell folate, and serum total homocysteine or allele frequencies for 8 polymorphisms. In a conditional logistic regression analysis including age, gestational age, serum creatinine, MMA, cystathionine, body mass index (BMI), cigarette smoking, alcohol ingestion and use of multivitamins the risk of abortion was significantly associated with MMA (OR [95% CI] = 3.80 [1.36, 10.62] per quartile increase in MMA), BMI (OR [95% CI] = 5.49 [1.29,23.39] per quartile) and gestational age (OR [95% CI] = 0.10 [0.01, 0.77] per increase of interval in gestational age). Conclusions: Increased serum MMA and BMI concentrations are associated with spontaneous abortion in Brazilian women. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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The aim of this study was to verify the capacity of the extracellular matrix (ECM) obtained from bone marrow of malnourished mice to sustain survival and to induce the proliferation of myeloid cells. We also verified the capacity of the tests to interact with in vitro hematopoietic cytokines. Male ""Swiss"" mice were submitted to protein malnutrition with a diet contents of 4% casein until they lost 20% of the original weight, while the group-control was kept with a diet content of 14% of casein. The bone marrow was extracted with 1.0 mg of aprotinin/mL in PBS. The proliferation tests were carried out with myeloid cell line FDCP-1, by the colorimetric method of reduction of the MTT. The obtained ECM from nourished and undernourished mice induced cellular proliferation in vitro. Tests performed with Il-3 and GM-CSF cytokines in a concentration of 10 and 500 rho g/mL displayed synergic and regulatory effects respectively. The ECM obtained from the malnourished group submitted to the binding to GM-CSF demonstrated higher cellular proliferation than the ECM obtained from the control group (p<0.05). The results suggest that the alterations in the composition of ECM of bone marrow caused by malnutrition might lead to modification of the GM-CSF activity modulation.
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Objectives: The aim of this study was to determine the insulin-delivery system and the attributes of insulin therapy that best meet patients` preferences, and to estimate patients` willingness-to-pay (WTP) for them. Methods: This was a cross-sectional discrete choice experiment (DCE) study involving 378 Canadian patients with type 1 or type 2 diabetes. Patients were asked to choose between two hypothetical insulin treatment options made up of different combinations of the attribute levels. Regression coefficients derived using conditional logit models were used to calculate patients` WTP. Stratification of the sample was performed to evaluate WTP by predefined subgroups. Results: A total of 274 patients successfully completed the survey. Overall, patients were willing to pay the most for better blood glucose control followed by weight gain. Surprisingly, route of insulin administration was the least important attribute overall. Segmented models indicated that insulin naive diabetics were willing to pay significantly more for both oral and inhaled short-acting insulin compared with insulin users. Surprisingly, type 1 diabetics were willing to pay $C11.53 for subcutaneous short-acting insulin, while type 2 diabetics were willing to pay $C47.23 to avoid subcutaneous short-acting insulin (p < .05). These findings support the hypothesis of a psychological barrier to initiating insulin therapy, but once that this barrier has been overcome, they accommodate and accept injectable therapy as a treatment option. Conclusions: By understanding and addressing patients` preferences for insulin therapy, diabetes educators can use this information to find an optimal treatment approach for each individual patient, which may ultimately lead to improved control, through improved compliance, and better diabetes outcomes.
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Parkinson’s disease (PD) is a progressive, degenerative, neurological disease. The progressive disability associated with PD results in substantial burdens for those with the condition, their families and society in terms of increased health resource use, earnings loss of affected individuals and family caregivers, poorer quality of life, caregiver burden, disrupted family relationships, decreased social and leisure activities, and deteriorating emotional well-being. Currently, no cure is available and the efficacy of available treatments, such as medication and surgical interventions, decreases with longer duration of the disease. Whilst the cause of PD is unknown, genetic and environmental factors are believed to contribute to its aetiology. Descriptive and analytical epidemiological studies have been conducted in a number of countries in an effort to elucidate the cause, or causes, of PD. Rural residency, farming, well water consumption, pesticide exposure, metals and solvents have been implicated as potential risk factors for PD in some previous epidemiological studies. However, there is substantial disagreement between the results of existing studies. Therefore, the role of environmental exposures in the aetiology of PD remains unclear. The main component of this thesis consists of a case-control study that assessed the contribution of environmental exposures to the risk of developing PD. An existing, previously unanalysed, dataset from a local case-control study was analysed to inform the design of the new case-control study. The analysis results suggested that regular exposure to pesticides and head injury were important risk factors for PD. However, due to the substantial limitations of this existing study, further confirmation of these results was desirable with a more robustly designed epidemiological study. A new exposure measurement instrument (a structured interviewer-delivered questionnaire) was developed for the new case-control study to obtain data on demographic, lifestyle, environmental and medical factors. Prior to its use in the case-control study, the questionnaire was assessed for test-retest repeatability in a series of 32 PD cases and 29 healthy sex-, age- and residential suburb-matched electoral roll controls. High repeatability was demonstrated for lifestyle exposures, such as smoking and coffee/tea consumption (kappas 0.70-1.00). The majority of environmental exposures, including use of pesticides, solvents and exposure to metal dusts and fumes, also showed high repeatability (kappas >0.78). A consecutive series of 163 PD case participants was recruited from a neurology clinic in Brisbane. One hundred and fifty-one (151) control participants were randomly selected from the Australian Commonwealth Electoral Roll and individually matched to the PD cases on age (± 2 years), sex and current residential suburb. Participants ranged in age from 40-89 years (mean age 67 years). Exposure data were collected in face-to-face interviews. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using conditional logistic regression for matched sets in SAS version 9.1. Consistent with previous studies, ever having been a regular smoker or coffee drinker was inversely associated with PD with dose-response relationships evident for packyears smoked and number of cups of coffee drunk per day. Passive smoking from ever having lived with a smoker or worked in a smoky workplace was also inversely related to PD. Ever having been a regular tea drinker was associated with decreased odds of PD. Hobby gardening was inversely associated with PD. However, use of fungicides in the home garden or occupationally was associated with increased odds of PD. Exposure to welding fumes, cleaning solvents, or thinners occupationally was associated with increased odds of PD. Ever having resided in a rural or remote area was inversely associated with PD. Ever having resided on a farm was only associated with moderately increased odds of PD. Whilst the current study’s results suggest that environmental exposures on their own are only modest contributors to overall PD risk, the possibility that interaction with genetic factors may additively or synergistically increase risk should be considered. The results of this research support the theory that PD has a multifactorial aetiology and that environmental exposures are some of a number of factors to contribute to PD risk. There was also evidence of interaction between some factors (eg smoking and welding) to moderate PD risk.
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There is a morpheme 'li' in Mauritian Creole (MC), which is homophonous with the 3sg pronoun, and which, in the early creole, occurs frequently between the subject and the predicate in affirmative, present tense clauses. I propose that that 'li' may have originated as a resumptive pronoun, co-referential with the subject, but following the grammaticalization of new determiner elements to mark the semantic contrasts of [±definite] and singular vs. plural, 'li' has now grammaticalized into a predicate marker. Its presence is sensitive to both the nature of the predicate, and to the definiteness and specificity features of the subject NP. My analysis is within the framework of Truth Conditional Semantics, where indefinite NPs are analyzed as variables that get introduced into the discourse, and must be bound by an operator to yield a closed proposition, with a truth value. Drawing on a comparison with a cognative morpheme 'i' in Seychellois Creole, I claim that its path to grammaticalization is linked to that of the specificity marking 'la'.