930 resultados para Epidemics spatial analysis
Resumo:
The results obtained in the August and December 2003, August 2004 and January 2005 oceanographic campaigns in the northern region of the Todos os Santos Bay (lat. 12º44.5'S; long. 038º35.00'W) between the Madre de Deus and Maré islands are analyzed. Instruments of continuous and discrete samplings were used to measure hydrographic properties currents and tides. The water mass of the northern region of the bay is forced by semidiurnal and mesotides of form number 0.08 and the lunar component M2 height was estimated at 91cm. The time series of the surface currents indicated movements in the N/S direction, forced by the tide with maximum magnitudes of 0.73 m.s-1 on the December 2003 campaign. However, in August 2004 the currents were dominated by the wind stress forcing, with a maximum speed of 1.85 m.s-1 and SE direction. Near the bottom, the influence of the tide is not as evident, with a decrease in intensity due to internal and bottom friction, with a maximum velocity of 0.17 m.s-1. The thermal and haline structures were weakly horizontally, as well as vertically stratified, with extreme values varying in the intervals 23ºC (August, 2004) to 28ºC (December, 2003) and 31.0 psu (August, 2003) to 36.0 psu (December, 2003), respectively. Some conclusions may be drawn from these results: i) The signs of the dilution of the fresh water discharges of the Caípe, Mataripe and São Paulo rivers in the region under the influence of the RLAM were observed only during the winter periods, but in the summer the region was flooded by waters of oceanic origin and the salinities above 36.0 indicated TW mass intrusion; ii) The N-S circulation near the RLAM is strongly dominated by the tide, and the importance of the M2 component was unequivocal, however, the E-W component presented some tidal modulation away from abrupt bottom topographical changes, and iii) The residual series, calculated as the difference between the original and modeled, is about ¼ of the original and confirmed its semidiurnal character.
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The alkali-aggregate reaction (AAR) is a chemical reaction that provokes a heterogeneous expansion of concrete and reduces important properties such as Young's modulus, leading to a reduction in the structure's useful life. In this study, a parametric model is employed to determine the spatial distribution of the concrete expansion, combining normalized factors that influence the reaction through an AAR expansion law. Optimization techniques were employed to adjust the numerical results and observations in a real structure. A three-dimensional version of the model has been implemented in a finite element commercial package (ANSYS(C)) and verified in the analysis of an accelerated mortar test. Comparisons were made between two AAR mathematical descriptions for the mechanical phenomenon, using the same methodology, and an expansion curve obtained from experiment. Some parametric studies are also presented. The numerical results compared very well with the experimental data validating the proposed method.
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Background: Central cord syndrome (CCS) is considered the most common incomplete spinal cord injury (SCI). Independent ambulation was achieved in 87-97% in young patients with CCS but no gait analysis studies have been reported before in such pathology. The aim of this study was to analyze the gait characteristics of subjects with CCS and to compare the findings with a healthy age, sex and anthropomorphically matched control group (CG), walking both at a self-selected speed and at the same speed. Methods: Twelve CCS patients and a CG of twenty subjects were analyzed. Kinematic data were obtained using a three-dimensional motion analysis system with two scanner units. The CG were asked to walk at two different speeds, at a self-selected speed and at a slower one, similar to the mean gait speed previously registered in the CCS patient group. Temporal, spatial variables and kinematic variables (maximum and minimum lower limb joint angles throughout the gait cycle in each plane, along with the gait cycle instants of occurrence and the joint range of motion ROM) were compared between the two groups walking at similar speeds. Results: The kinematic parameters were compared when both groups walked at a similar speed, given that there was a significant difference in the self-selected speeds (p < 0.05). Hip abduction and knee flexion at initial contact, as well as minimal knee flexion at stance, were larger in the CCS group (p < 0.05). However, the range of knee and ankle motion in the sagittal plane was greater in the CG group (p < 0.05). The maximal ankle plantar-flexion values in stance phase and at toe off were larger in the CG (p < 0.05). Conclusions: The gait pattern of CCS patients showed a decrease of knee and ankle sagittal ROM during level walking and an increase in hip abduction to increase base of support. The findings of this study help to improve the understanding how CCS affects gait changes in the lower limbs.
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Background: Population antimicrobial use may influence resistance emergence. Resistance is an ecological phenomenon due to potential transmissibility. We investigated spatial and temporal patterns of ciprofloxacin (CIP) population consumption related to E. coli resistance emergence and dissemination in a major Brazilian city. A total of 4,372 urinary tract infection E. coli cases, with 723 CIP resistant, were identified in 2002 from two outpatient centres. Cases were address geocoded in a digital map. Raw CIP consumption data was transformed into usage density in DDDs by CIP selling points influence zones determination. A stochastic model coupled with a Geographical Information System was applied for relating resistance and usage density and for detecting city areas of high/low resistance risk. Results: E. coli CIP resistant cluster emergence was detected and significantly related to usage density at a level of 5 to 9 CIP DDDs. There were clustered hot-spots and a significant global spatial variation in the residual resistance risk after allowing for usage density. Conclusions: There were clustered hot-spots and a significant global spatial variation in the residual resistance risk after allowing for usage density. The usage density of 5-9 CIP DDDs per 1,000 inhabitants within the same influence zone was the resistance triggering level. This level led to E. coli resistance clustering, proving that individual resistance emergence and dissemination was affected by antimicrobial population consumption.
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Background: Detailed analysis of the dynamic interactions among biological, environmental, social, and economic factors that favour the spread of certain diseases is extremely useful for designing effective control strategies. Diseases like tuberculosis that kills somebody every 15 seconds in the world, require methods that take into account the disease dynamics to design truly efficient control and surveillance strategies. The usual and well established statistical approaches provide insights into the cause-effect relationships that favour disease transmission but they only estimate risk areas, spatial or temporal trends. Here we introduce a novel approach that allows figuring out the dynamical behaviour of the disease spreading. This information can subsequently be used to validate mathematical models of the dissemination process from which the underlying mechanisms that are responsible for this spreading could be inferred. Methodology/Principal Findings: The method presented here is based on the analysis of the spread of tuberculosis in a Brazilian endemic city during five consecutive years. The detailed analysis of the spatio-temporal correlation of the yearly geo-referenced data, using different characteristic times of the disease evolution, allowed us to trace the temporal path of the aetiological agent, to locate the sources of infection, and to characterize the dynamics of disease spreading. Consequently, the method also allowed for the identification of socio-economic factors that influence the process. Conclusions/Significance: The information obtained can contribute to more effective budget allocation, drug distribution and recruitment of human skilled resources, as well as guiding the design of vaccination programs. We propose that this novel strategy can also be applied to the evaluation of other diseases as well as other social processes.
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A large sample of Herbig Ae/Be (HAeBe) candidates, distributed in different Galactic regions south to declination +30 degrees, were identified by the Pico dos Dias Survey (a search for young stellar objects based on IRAS colors). Most of the candidates are nearby or associated with star-forming clouds, but several others are considered isolated objects. Aiming to verify the young nature of 93 HAeBe candidates, we searched for additional information that could be useful to confirm if they are pre-main-sequence (PMS) stars or evolved objects, which coincidentally show similar IRAS colors. By adopting a spectral index that is related to the amount of infrared excess and the shape of the spectral energy distribution, we have classified the sample according to three groups, which are analyzed on the basis of (1) circumstellar luminosity; (2) spatial distribution; (3) optical polarization; (4) near-infrared colors; (5) stellar parameters (mass, age, effective temperature); and (5) intensity of emission lines. Our analysis indicates that only 76% of the studied sample, mainly the group with intermediate to low levels of circumstellar emission, can be more confidently considered PMS stars. The nature of the remaining stars, which are in the other group that contains the highest levels of infrared excess, remains to be confirmed. They share the same characteristics of evolved objects, requiring complementary studies in order to correctly classify them. At least seven objects show characteristics typical of post-asymptotic giant branch or proto-planetary nebulae.
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The structural and optical properties of GaAsP/GaP core-shell nanowires grown by gas source molecular beam epitaxy were investigated by transmission electron microscopy, Raman spectroscopy, photoluminescence (PL), and magneto-PL. The effects of surface depletion and compositional variations in the ternary alloy manifested as a redshift in GaAsP PL upon surface passivation, and a decrease in redshift in PL in the presence of a magnetic field due to spatial confinement of carriers.
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Base-level maps (or ""isobase maps"", as originally defined by Filosofov, 1960), express a relationship between valley order and topography. The base-level map can be seen as a ""simplified"" version of the original topographic surface, from which the ""noise"" of the low-order stream erosion was removed. This method is able to identify areas with possible tectonic influence even within lithologically uniform domains. Base-level maps have been recently applied in semi-detail scale (e.g., 1:50 000 or larger) morphotectonic analysis. In this paper, we present an evaluation of the method's applicability in regional-scale analysis (e.g., 1:250 000 or smaller). A test area was selected in northern Brazil, at the lower course of the Araguaia and Tocantins rivers. The drainage network extracted from SRTM30_PLUS DEMs with spatial resolution of approximately 900 m was visually compared with available topographic maps and considered to be compatible with a 1:1,000 000 scale. Regarding the interpretation of regional-scale morphostructures, the map constructed with 2nd and 3rd-order valleys was considered to present the best results. Some of the interpreted base-level anomalies correspond to important shear zones and geological contacts present in the 1:5 000 000 Geological Map of South America. Others have no correspondence with mapped Precambrian structures and are considered to represent younger, probably neotectonic, features. A strong E-W orientation of the base-level lines over the inflexion of the Araguaia and Tocantins rivers, suggest a major drainage capture. A N-S topographic swath profile over the Tocantins and Araguaia rivers reveals a topographic pattern which, allied with seismic data showing a roughly N-S direction of extension in the area, lead us to interpret this lineament as an E-W, southward-dipping normal fault. There is also a good visual correspondence between the base-level lineaments and geophysical anomalies. A NW-SE lineament in the southeast of the study area partially corresponds to the northern border of the Mosquito lava field, of Jurassic age, and a NW-SE lineament traced in the northeastern sector of the study area can be interpreted as the Picos-Santa Ines lineament, identifiable in geophysical maps but with little expression in hypsometric or topographic maps.
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This paper addresses the development of a hybrid-mixed finite element formulation for the quasi-static geometrically exact analysis of three-dimensional framed structures with linear elastic behavior. The formulation is based on a modified principle of stationary total complementary energy, involving, as independent variables, the generalized vectors of stress-resultants and displacements and, in addition, a set of Lagrange multipliers defined on the element boundaries. The finite element discretization scheme adopted within the framework of the proposed formulation leads to numerical solutions that strongly satisfy the equilibrium differential equations in the elements, as well as the equilibrium boundary conditions. This formulation consists, therefore, in a true equilibrium formulation for large displacements and rotations in space. Furthermore, this formulation is objective, as it ensures invariance of the strain measures under superposed rigid body rotations, and is not affected by the so-called shear-locking phenomenon. Also, the proposed formulation produces numerical solutions which are independent of the path of deformation. To validate and assess the accuracy of the proposed formulation, some benchmark problems are analyzed and their solutions compared with those obtained using the standard two-node displacement/ rotation-based formulation.
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Gamma ray tomography experiments have been carried out to detect spatial patterns in the porosity in a 0.27 m diameter column packed with steel Rashig rings of different sizes: 12.6, 37.9, and 76 mm. using a first generation CT system (Chen et al., 1998). A fast Fourier transform tomographic reconstruction algorithm has been used to calculate the spatial variation over the column cross section. Cross-sectional gas porosity and solid holdup distribution were determinate. The values of cross-sectional average gas porosity were epsilon=0.849, 0.938 and 0.966 for the 12.6, 37.9, and 76 mm rings, respectively. Radial holdup variation within the packed bed has been determined. The variation of the circumferentially averaged gas holdup in the radial direction indicates that the porosity in the column wall region is a somewhat higher than that in the bulk region, due to the effect of the column wall. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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The use of chloroplast DNA markers (cpDNA) helps to elucidate questions related to ecology, evolution and genetic structure. The knowledge of inter-and intra-population genetic structure allows to design effective conservation and management strategies for tropical tree species. With the aim to help the conservation of Hymenaea stigonocarpa of the Cerrado (Brazilian savanna) in Sao Paulo State, an analysis of the spatial genetic structure (SGS) was conducted in two populations using five universal chloroplast microsatellite loci (cpSSR). The population of 68 trees of H. stigonocarpa in the Ecological Station of Itirapina (ESI) had a single haplotype, indicating a strong founder effect. In turn, the population of 47 trees of H. stigonocarpa in a contiguous area that includes the Ecological Station of Assis and the Assis State Forest (ESA), showed six haplotypes ((n) over cap (h) = 6) with a moderate haplotype diversity ((h) over cap = 0667 + 0094), revealing that it was founded by a small number of maternal lineages. The SGS analysis for the population ESA/ASF, using Moran`s I index, indicated limited seed dispersal. Considering SGS, for ex situ conservation strategies in the population ESA/ASF, seed harvesting should require a minimum distance of 750 m among seed-trees.
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Guignardia citricarpa, the causal agent of citrus black spot, forms airborne ascospores on decomposing citrus leaves and water-spread conidia on fruits, leaves and twigs. The spatial pattern of diseased fruit in citrus tree canopies was used to assess the importance of ascospores and conidia in citrus black spot epidemics in Sao Paulo State, Brazil. The aggregation of diseased fruit in the citrus tree canopy was quantified by the binomial dispersion index (D) and the binary form of Taylor`s Power Law for 303 trees in six groves. D was significantly greater than 1 in 251 trees. The intercept of the regression line of Taylor`s Power Law was significantly greater than 0 and the slope was not different from 1, implying that diseased fruit was aggregated in the canopy independent of disease incidence. Disease incidence (p) and severity (S) were assessed in 2875 citrus trees. The incidence-severity relationship was described (R-2 = 88.7%) by the model ln(S) = ln(a) + bCLL(p) where CLL = complementary log-log transformation. The high severity at low incidence observed in many cases is also indicative of low distance spread of G. citricarpa spores. For the same level of disease incidence, some trees had most of the diseased fruit with many lesions and high disease severity, whereas other trees had most of the fruit with few lesions and low disease severity. Aggregation of diseased fruit in the trees suggests that splash-dispersed conidia have an important role in increasing the disease in citrus trees in Brazil.
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Purpose Among environmental factors governing innumerous processes that are active in estuarine environments, those of edaphic character have received special attention in recent studies. With the objectives of determining the spatial patterns of soil attributes and components across different mangrove forest landscapes and obtaining additional information on the cause-effect relationships between these variables and position within the estuary, we analyzed several soil attributes in 31 mangrove soil profiles from the state of So Paulo (Guaruja, Brazil). Materials and methods Soil samples were collected at low tide along two transects within the CrumahA(0) mangrove forest. Samples were analyzed to determine pH, Eh, salinity, and the percentages of sand, silt, clay, total organic carbon (TOC), and total S. Mineralogy of the clay fraction (< 2 mm) was also studied by X-ray diffraction analysis, and partitioning of solid-phase Fe was performed by sequential extraction. Results and discussion The results obtained indicate important differences in soil composition at different depths and landscape positions, causing variations in physicochemical parameters, clay mineralogy, TOC contents, and iron geochemistry. The results also indicate that physicochemical conditions may vary in terms of different local microtopographies. Soil salinity was determined by relative position in relation to flood tide and transition areas with highlands. The proportions of TOC and total S are conditioned by the sedimentation of organic matter derived from vegetation and by the prevailing redox conditions, which clearly favored intense sulfate reduction in the soils (similar to 80% of the total Fe is Fe-pyrite). Particle-size distribution is conditioned by erosive/deposition processes (present and past) and probably by the positioning of ancient and reworked sandy ridges. The existing physicochemical conditions appear to contribute to the synthesis (smectite) and transformation (kaolinite) of clay minerals. Conclusions The results demonstrate that the position of soils in the estuary greatly affects soil attributes. Differences occur even at small scales (meters), indicating that both edaphic (soil classification, soil mineralogy, and soil genesis) and environmental (contamination and carbon stock) studies should take such variability into account.
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Arriving in Brisbane some six years ago, I could not help being impressed by what may be prosaically described as its atmospheric amenity resources. Perhaps this in part was due to my recent experiences in major urban centres in North America, but since that time, that sparkling quality and the blue skies seem to have progressively diminished. Unfortunately, there is also objective evidence available to suggest that this apparent deterioration is not merely the result of habituation of the senses. Air pollution data for the city show trends of increasing concentrations of those very substances that have destroyed the attractiveness of major population centres elsewhere, with climates initially as salubrious. Indeed, present figures indicate that photochemical smog in unacceptably high concentrations is rapidly becoming endemic also over Brisbane. These regrettable developments should come as no surprise. The society at large has not been inclined to respond purposefully to warnings of impending environmental problems, despite the experiences and publicity from overseas and even from other cities within Australia. Nor, up to the present, have certain politicians and government officials displayed stances beyond those necessary for the maintenance of a decorum of concern. At this stage, there still exists the possibility for meaningful government action without the embarrassment of losing political favour with the electorate. To the contrary, there is every chance that such action may be turned to advantage with increased public enlightenment. It would be more than a pity to miss perhaps the final remaining opportunity: Queensland is one of the few remaining places in the world with sufficient resources to permit both rational development and high environmental quality. The choice appears to be one of making a relatively minor investment now for a large financial and social gain the near future, or, permitting Brisbane to degenerate gradually into just another stagnated Los Angeles or Sydney. The present monograph attempts to introduce the problem by reviewing the available research on air quality in the Brisbane area. It also tries to elucidate some seemingly obvious, but so far unapplied management approaches. By necessity, such a broad treatment needs to make inroads into extensive ranges of subject areas, including political and legal practices to public perceptions, scientific measurement and statistical analysis to dynamics of air flow. Clearly, it does not pretend to be definitive in any of these fields, but it does try to emphasize those adjustable facets of the human use system of natural resources, too often neglected in favour of air pollution control technology. The crossing of disciplinary boundaries, however, needs no apology: air quality problems are ubiquitous, touching upon space, time and human interaction.
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Poor root development due to constraining soil conditions could be an important factor influencing health of urban trees. Therefore, there is a need for efficient techniques to analyze the spatial distribution of tree roots. An analytical procedure for describing tree rooting patterns from X-ray computed tomography (CT) data is described and illustrated. Large irregularly shaped specimens of undisturbed sandy soil were sampled from Various positions around the base of trees using field impregnation with epoxy resin, to stabilize the cohesionless soil. Cores approximately 200 mm in diameter by 500 mm in height were extracted from these specimens. These large core samples were scanned with a medical X-ray CT device, and contiguous images of soil slices (2 mm thick) were thus produced. X-ray CT images are regarded as regularly-spaced sections through the soil although they are not actual 2D sections but matrices of voxels similar to 0.5 mm x 0.5 mm x 2 mm. The images were used to generate the equivalent of horizontal root contact maps from which three-dimensional objects, assumed to be roots, were reconstructed. The resulting connected objects were used to derive indices of the spatial organization of roots, namely: root length distribution, root length density, root growth angle distribution, root spatial distribution, and branching intensity. The successive steps of the method, from sampling to generation of indices of tree root organization, are illustrated through a case study examining rooting patterns of valuable urban trees. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.