Land-use and land-cover change in Atlantic Forest landscapes

The Atlantic Forest is one of the most threatened tropical biomes, with much of the standing forest in small (less than 50 ha), disturbed and isolated patches. The pattern of land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) which has resulted in this critical scenario has not yet been fully investigated. Here, we describe the LULCC in three Atlantic Forest fragmented landscapes (Sao Paulo, Brazil) between 1960-1980s and 1980-2000s. The three studied landscapes differ in the current proportion of forest cover, having 10%, 30% and 50% respectively. Between the 1960s and 1980s. forest cover of two landscapes was reduced while the forest cover in the third landscape increased slightly. The opposite trend was observed between the 1980s and 2000s: forest regeneration was greater than deforestation at the landscapes with 10% and 50% of forest cover and, as a consequence, forest cover increased. By contrast, the percentage of forest cover at the landscape with 30% of forest cover was drastically reduced between the 1980s and 2000s. LULCC deviated from a random trajectory, were not constant through time in two study landscapes and were not constant across space in a given time period. This landscape dynamism in single locations over small temporal scales is a key factor to be considered in models of LULCC to accurately simulate future changes for the Atlantic Forest. In general, forest patches became more isolated when deforestation was greater than forest regeneration and became more connected when forest regeneration was greater than deforestation. As a result of the dynamic experienced by the study landscapes, individual forest patches currently consist of a mosaic of different forest age classes which is likely to impact bio-diversity. Furthermore, landscape dynamics suggests the beginning of a forest transition in some Atlantic Forest regions, what could be of great importance for biodiversity conservation due to the potential effects of young secondary forests in reducing forest isolation and maintaining a significant amount of the original biodiversity. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Phylodynamics and Dispersal of HRSV Entails Its Permanence in the General Population in between Yearly Outbreaks in Children

Background: Human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) is one of the major etiologic agents of respiratory tract infections among children worldwide. Methodology/Principal Findings: Here through a comprehensive analysis of the two major HRSV groups A and B (n = 1983) which comprise of several genotypes, we present a complex pattern of population dynamics of HRSV over a time period of 50 years (1956-2006). Circulation pattern of HRSV revealed a series of expansions and fluctuations of co-circulating lineages with a predominance of HRSVA. Positively selected amino acid substitutions of the G glycoprotein occurred upon population growth of GB3 with a 60-nucleotide insertion (GB3 Insert), while other genotypes acquired substitutions upon both population growth and decrease, thus possibly reflecting a role for immune selected epitopes in linkage to the traced substitution sites that may have important relevance for vaccine design. Analysis evidenced the co-circulation and predominance of distinct HRSV genotypes in Brazil and suggested a year-round presence of the virus. In Brazil, GA2 and GA5 were the main culprits of HRSV outbreaks until recently, when the GB3 Insert became highly prevalent. Using Bayesian methods, we determined the dispersal patterns of genotypes through several inferred migratory routes. Conclusions/Significance: Genotypes spread across continents and between neighboring areas. Crucially, genotypes also remained at any given region for extended periods, independent of seasonal outbreaks possibly maintained by re-infecting the general population.

Cellular biomarkers to elucidate global warming effects on Antarctic sea urchin Sterechinus neumayeri

Global warming is a reality and its effects have been widely studied. However, the consequences for marine invertebrates remain poorly understood. Thus, the present study proposed to evaluate the effect of elevated temperature on the innate immune system of Antarctic sea urchin Sterechinus neumayeri. Sea urchins were collected nearby Brazilian Antarctic Station "Comandante Ferraz" and exposed to 0 (control), 2 and 4A degrees C for periods of 48 h, 2, 7 and 14 days. After the experimental periods, coelomic fluid was collected in order to perform the following analyses: coelomocytes differential counting, phagocytic response, adhesion and spreading coelomocytes assay, intranuclear iron crystalloid and ultra structural analysis of coelomocytes. The red sphere cell was considered a biomarker for heat stress, as they increased in acute stress. Besides that, a significant increase in phagocytic indexes was observed at 2A degrees C coinciding with a significant increase of intranuclear iron crystalloid at the same temperature and same time period. Furthermore, significant alterations in cell adhesion and spreading were observed in elevated temperatures. The ultra structural analysis of coelomocytes showed no significant difference across treatments. This was the first time that innate immune response alterations were observed in response to elevated temperature in a Polar echinoid.

Nondetection Index of Anti-Islanding Passive Protection of Synchronous Distributed Generators

Synchronous distributed generators are prone to operate islanded after contingencies, which is usually not allowed due to safety and power-quality issues. Thus, there are several anti-islanding techniques; however, most of them present technical limitations so that they are likely to fail in certain situations. Therefore, it is important to quantify and determine whether the scheme under study is adequate or not. In this context, this paper proposes an index to evaluate the effectiveness of anti-islanding frequency-based relays commonly used to protect synchronous distributed generators. The method is based on the calculation of a numerical index that indicates the time period that the system is unprotected against islanding considering the global period of analysis. Although this index can precisely be calculated based on several electromagnetic transient simulations, a practical method is also proposed to calculate it directly from simple analytical formulas or lookup tables. The results have shown that the proposed approach can assist distribution engineers to assess and set anti-islanding protection schemes.

Polymorphous low-grade adenocarcinoma: an analysis of epidemiological studies and hints for pathologists

Abstract Background This study is an analysis of the prevalence of polymorphous low grade adenocarcinoma (PLGA) in epidemiological surveys of salivary tumors published in the English language from 1992 to 2012. Methods These surveys included studies from different researchers, countries and continents. The 57 surveys for which it was possible to calculate the percentage of PLGAs among all malignant minor salivary gland tumors (MMSGT) were included in this review. Results The statistical analyses show significant differences in the PLGA percentage by time period, country and continent in the studies included in this review. The percentage of PLGAs among MMSGTs varied among the studies, ranging from 0.0% to 46.8%. PLGA rates have varied over the period studied and have most recently increased. The frequency of reported PLGA cases also varied from 0.0% to 24.8% by the country in which the MMSGT studies were performed. The PLGA percentages also varied significantly by continent, with frequencies ranging from 3.9% in Asia to 20.0% in Oceania Conclusion Based on these results, we concluded that although the accuracy of PLGA diagnoses has improved, they remain a challenge for pathologists. To facilitate PLGA diagnoses, we have therefore made some suggestions for pathologists regarding tumors composed of single-layer strands of cells that form all of the histological patterns present in the tumor, consistency of the cytological appearance and uniformly positive CK7, vimentin and S100 immunohistochemistry, which indicate a single PLGA phenotype. Virtual slide The virtual slide(s) for this article can be found here: http://www.diagnosticpathology.diagnomx.eu/vs/1059098656858324

On the use of 10-minute point counts and 10-species lists for surveying birds in lowland Atlantic Forests in southeastern Brazil

Due to rapid and continuous deforestation, recent bird surveys in the Atlantic Forest are following rapid assessment programs to accumulate significant amounts of data during short periods of time. During this study, two surveying methods were used to evaluate which technique rapidly accumulated most species (> 90% of the estimated empirical value) at lowland Atlantic Forests in the state of São Paulo, southeastern Brazil. Birds were counted during the 2008-2010 breeding seasons using 10-minute point counts and 10-species lists. Overall, point counting detected as many species as lists (79 vs. 83, respectively), and 88 points (14.7 h) detected 90% of the estimated species richness. Forty-one lists were insufficient to detect 90% of all species. However, lists accumulated species faster in a shorter time period, probably due to the nature of the point count method in which species detected while moving between points are not considered. Rapid assessment programs in these forests will rapidly detect more species using 10-species lists. Both methods shared 63% of all forest species, but this may be due to spatial and temporal mismatch between samplings of each method.

Comparação quantitativa da comunidade de aves de um fragmento de floresta semidecidual do interior do Estado de São Paulo em intervalo de 30 anos

Few studies have evaluated long-term changes in avian abundance in forest remnants. To compare both species richness and abundance of the bird community in a forest fragment located in the municipality of Gália, state of São Paulo, southeastern Brazil, we surveyed forest birds using transect counts. We compared our results with a survey conducted 30 years earlier at the same locality and further classified bird species according to their food habits to eventually predict fluctuations of specific abundance. Although species with population declines predominated in the community, all trophic categories had species which increased their abundances. Most species prone to move around remnants decreased in abundance. We suggest that, regarding specific abundances, trophic categories may be equally affected as a result of fragmentation processes and that the forest regeneration of this remnant may have led to the loss of edge species. Species that suffered from abundance loss during this time period may become locally extinct in the near future.

Drastic decadal decline of the seagrass Cymodocea nodosa at Gran Canaria (eastern Atlantic): interactions with the green algae Caulerpa prolifera

[EN] The shoot density, leaf length and biomass of the seagrass Cymodocea nodosa (Ucria) Ascherson were found to severely decline in the last 17 years in the oceanic island of Gran Canaria (central Eastern Atlantic). Five seagrass meadows were sampled in summer and winter of 1994-1995 and in winter and summer 2011. The decrease in C. nodosa correlated with a 3-fold increase in the biomass of the green rhizophytic algae Caulerpa prolifera (Forsskål) J.V. Lamoroux over the same time period, although this increase varied notably among meadows. We also documented a negative correlation between the biomass of C. nodosa and C. prolifera at the island-scale, sampling 16 meadows in 2011. Experimental evidence demonstrated that C. prolifera can cause significant negative impacts on C. nodosa: plots with total (100%) removals of C. prolifera had ca. 2.5 more shoots and 3.5 times more biomass of C. nodosa, after 8 months, compared to plots with 50% removals and untouched control plots. Interference by C. prolifera appears to partially explain the decay in the abundance of C. nodosa populations in Gran Canaria. This study, however, did not identify potential underlying processes and/or environmental alterations that may have facilitated the disappearance of C. nodosa.

Estimating crustal deformation from geodetic data

By the end of the 19th century, geodesy has contributed greatly to the knowledge of regional tectonics and fault movement through its ability to measure, at sub-centimetre precision, the relative positions of points on the Earth’s surface. Nowadays the systematic analysis of geodetic measurements in active deformation regions represents therefore one of the most important tool in the study of crustal deformation over different temporal scales [e.g., Dixon, 1991]. This dissertation focuses on motion that can be observed geodetically with classical terrestrial position measurements, particularly triangulation and leveling observations. The work is divided into two sections: an overview of the principal methods for estimating longterm accumulation of elastic strain from terrestrial observations, and an overview of the principal methods for rigorously inverting surface coseismic deformation fields for source geometry with tests on synthetic deformation data sets and applications in two different tectonically active regions of the Italian peninsula. For the long-term accumulation of elastic strain analysis, triangulation data were available from a geodetic network across the Messina Straits area (southern Italy) for the period 1971 – 2004. From resulting angle changes, the shear strain rates as well as the orientation of the principal axes of the strain rate tensor were estimated. The computed average annual shear strain rates for the time period between 1971 and 2004 are γ˙1 = 113.89 ± 54.96 nanostrain/yr and γ˙2 = -23.38 ± 48.71 nanostrain/yr, with the orientation of the most extensional strain (θ) at N140.80° ± 19.55°E. These results suggests that the first-order strain field of the area is dominated by extension in the direction perpendicular to the trend of the Straits, sustaining the hypothesis that the Messina Straits could represents an area of active concentrated deformation. The orientation of θ agree well with GPS deformation estimates, calculated over shorter time interval, and is consistent with previous preliminary GPS estimates [D’Agostino and Selvaggi, 2004; Serpelloni et al., 2005] and is also similar to the direction of the 1908 (MW 7.1) earthquake slip vector [e.g., Boschi et al., 1989; Valensise and Pantosti, 1992; Pino et al., 2000; Amoruso et al., 2002]. Thus, the measured strain rate can be attributed to an active extension across the Messina Straits, corresponding to a relative extension rate ranges between < 1mm/yr and up to ~ 2 mm/yr, within the portion of the Straits covered by the triangulation network. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that the Messina Straits is an important active geological boundary between the Sicilian and the Calabrian domains and support previous preliminary GPS-based estimates of strain rates across the Straits, which show that the active deformation is distributed along a greater area. Finally, the preliminary dislocation modelling has shown that, although the current geodetic measurements do not resolve the geometry of the dislocation models, they solve well the rate of interseismic strain accumulation across the Messina Straits and give useful information about the locking the depth of the shear zone. Geodetic data, triangulation and leveling measurements of the 1976 Friuli (NE Italy) earthquake, were available for the inversion of coseismic source parameters. From observed angle and elevation changes, the source parameters of the seismic sequence were estimated in a join inversion using an algorithm called “simulated annealing”. The computed optimal uniform–slip elastic dislocation model consists of a 30° north-dipping shallow (depth 1.30 ± 0.75 km) fault plane with azimuth of 273° and accommodating reverse dextral slip of about 1.8 m. The hypocentral location and inferred fault plane of the main event are then consistent with the activation of Periadriatic overthrusts or other related thrust faults as the Gemona- Kobarid thrust. Then, the geodetic data set exclude the source solution of Aoudia et al. [2000], Peruzza et al. [2002] and Poli et al. [2002] that considers the Susans-Tricesimo thrust as the May 6 event. The best-fit source model is then more consistent with the solution of Pondrelli et al. [2001], which proposed the activation of other thrusts located more to the North of the Susans-Tricesimo thrust, probably on Periadriatic related thrust faults. The main characteristics of the leveling and triangulation data are then fit by the optimal single fault model, that is, these results are consistent with a first-order rupture process characterized by a progressive rupture of a single fault system. A single uniform-slip fault model seems to not reproduce some minor complexities of the observations, and some residual signals that are not modelled by the optimal single-fault plane solution, were observed. In fact, the single fault plane model does not reproduce some minor features of the leveling deformation field along the route 36 south of the main uplift peak, that is, a second fault seems to be necessary to reproduce these residual signals. By assuming movements along some mapped thrust located southward of the inferred optimal single-plane solution, the residual signal has been successfully modelled. In summary, the inversion results presented in this Thesis, are consistent with the activation of some Periadriatic related thrust for the main events of the sequence, and with a minor importance of the southward thrust systems of the middle Tagliamento plain.

Max Bill in Italia . Lo spazio logico dell'architettura

I Max Bill is an intense giornata of a big fresco. An analysis of the main social, artistic and cultural events throughout the twentieth century is needed in order to trace his career through his masterpieces and architectures. Some of the faces of this hypothetical mural painting are, among others, Le Corbusier, Walter Gropius, Ernesto Nathan Rogers, Kandinskij, Klee, Mondrian, Vatongerloo, Ignazio Silone, while the backcloth is given by artistic avant-gardes, Bauhaus, International Exhibitions, CIAM, war events, reconstruction, Milan Triennali, Venice Biennali, the School of Ulm. Architect, even though more known as painter, sculptor, designer and graphic artist, Max Bill attends the Bauhaus as a student in the years 1927-1929, and from this experience derives the main features of a rational, objective, constructive and non figurative art. His research is devoted to give his art a scientific methodology: each work proceeds from the analysis of a problem to the logical and always verifiable solution of the same problem. By means of composition elements (such as rhythm, seriality, theme and its variation, harmony and dissonance), he faces, with consistent results, themes apparently very distant from each other as the project for the H.f.G. or the design for a font. Mathematics are a constant reference frame as field of certainties, order, objectivity: ‘for Bill mathematics are never confined to a simple function: they represent a climate of spiritual certainties, and also the theme of non attempted in its purest state, objectivity of the sign and of the geometrical place, and at the same time restlessness of the infinity: Limited and Unlimited ’. In almost sixty years of activity, experiencing all artistic fields, Max Bill works, projects, designs, holds conferences and exhibitions in Europe, Asia and Americas, confronting himself with the most influencing personalities of the twentieth century. In such a vast scenery, the need to limit the investigation field combined with the necessity to address and analyse the unpublished and original aspect of Bill’s relations with Italy. The original contribution of the present research regards this particular ‘geographic delimitation’; in particular, beyond the deep cultural exchanges between Bill and a series of Milanese architects, most of all with Rogers, two main projects have been addressed: the realtà nuova at Milan Triennale in 1947, and the Contemporary Art Museum in Florence in 1980. It is important to note that these projects have not been previously investigated, and the former never appears in the sources either. These works, together with the most well-known ones, such as the projects for the VI and IX Triennale, and the Swiss pavilion for the Biennale, add important details to the reference frame of the relations which took place between Zurich and Milan. Most of the occasions for exchanges took part in between the Thirties and the Fifties, years during which Bill underwent a significant period of artistic growth. He meets the Swiss progressive architects and the Paris artists from the Abstraction-Création movement, enters the CIAM, collaborates with Le Corbusier to the third volume of his Complete Works, and in Milan he works and gets confronted with the events related to post-war reconstruction. In these years Bill defines his own working methodology, attaining an artistic maturity in his work. The present research investigates the mentioned time period, despite some necessary exceptions. II The official Max Bill bibliography is naturally wide, including spreading works along with ones more devoted to analytical investigation, mainly written in German and often translated into French and English (Max Bill himself published his works in three languages). Few works have been published in Italian and, excluding the catalogue of the Parma exhibition from 1977, they cannot be considered comprehensive. Many publications are exhibition catalogues, some of which include essays written by Max Bill himself, some others bring Bill’s comments in a educational-pedagogical approach, to accompany the observer towards a full understanding of the composition processes of his art works. Bill also left a great amount of theoretical speculations to encourage a critical reading of his works in the form of books edited or written by him, and essays published in ‘Werk’, magazine of the Swiss Werkbund, and other international reviews, among which Domus and Casabella. These three reviews have been important tools of analysis, since they include tracks of some of Max Bill’s architectural works. The architectural aspect is less investigated than the plastic and pictorial ones in all the main reference manuals on the subject: Benevolo, Tafuri and Dal Co, Frampton, Allenspach consider Max Bill as an artist proceeding in his work from Bauhaus in the Ulm experience . A first filing of his works was published in 2004 in the monographic issue of the Spanish magazine 2G, together with critical essays by Karin Gimmi, Stanislaus von Moos, Arthur Rüegg and Hans Frei, and in ‘Konkrete Architektur?’, again by Hans Frei. Moreover, the monographic essay on the Atelier Haus building by Arthur Rüegg from 1997, and the DPA 17 issue of the Catalonia Polytechnic with contributions of Carlos Martì, Bruno Reichlin and Ton Salvadò, the latter publication concentrating on a few Bill’s themes and architectures. An urge to studying and going in depth in Max Bill’s works was marked in 2008 by the centenary of his birth and by a recent rediscovery of Bill as initiator of the ‘minimalist’ tradition in Swiss architecture. Bill’s heirs are both very active in promoting exhibitions, researching and publishing. Jakob Bill, Max Bill’s son and painter himself, recently published a work on Bill’s experience in Bauhaus, and earlier on he had published an in-depth study on ‘Endless Ribbons’ sculptures. Angela Thomas Schmid, Bill’s wife and art historian, published in end 2008 the first volume of a biography on Max Bill and, together with the film maker Eric Schmid, produced a documentary film which was also presented at the last Locarno Film Festival. Both biography and documentary concentrate on Max Bill’s political involvement, from antifascism and 1968 protest movements to Bill experiences as Zurich Municipality councilman and member of the Swiss Confederation Parliament. In the present research, the bibliography includes also direct sources, such as interviews and original materials in the form of letters correspondence and graphic works together with related essays, kept in the max+binia+jakob bill stiftung archive in Zurich. III The results of the present research are organized into four main chapters, each of them subdivided into four parts. The first chapter concentrates on the research field, reasons, tools and methodologies employed, whereas the second one consists of a short biographical note organized by topics, introducing the subject of the research. The third chapter, which includes unpublished events, traces the historical and cultural frame with particular reference to the relations between Max Bill and the Italian scene, especially Milan and the architects Rogers and Baldessari around the Fifties, searching the themes and the keys for interpretation of Bill’s architectures and investigating the critical debate on the reviews and the plastic survey through sculpture. The fourth and last chapter examines four main architectures chosen on a geographical basis, all devoted to exhibition spaces, investigating Max Bill’s composition process related to the pictorial field. Paintings has surely been easier and faster to investigate and verify than the building field. A doctoral thesis discussed in Lausanne in 1977 investigating Max Bill’s plastic and pictorial works, provided a series of devices which were corrected and adapted for the definition of the interpretation grid for the composition structures of Bill’s main architectures. Four different tools are employed in the investigation of each work: a context analysis related to chapter three results; a specific theoretical essay by Max Bill briefly explaining his main theses, even though not directly linked to the very same work of art considered; the interpretation grid for the composition themes derived from a related pictorial work; the architecture drawing and digital three-dimensional model. The double analysis of the architectural and pictorial fields is functional to underlining the relation among the different elements of the composition process; the two fields, however, cannot be compared and they stay, in Max Bill’s works as in the present research, interdependent though self-sufficient. IV An important aspect of Max Bill production is self-referentiality: talking of Max Bill, also through Max Bill, as a need for coherence instead of a method limitation. Ernesto Nathan Rogers describes Bill as the last humanist, and his horizon is the known world but, as the ‘Concrete Art’ of which he is one of the main representatives, his production justifies itself: Max Bill not only found a method, but he autonomously re-wrote the ‘rules of the game’, derived timeless theoretical principles and verified them through a rich and interdisciplinary artistic production. The most recurrent words in the present research work are synthesis, unity, space and logic. These terms are part of Max Bill’s vocabulary and can be referred to his works. Similarly, graphic settings or analytical schemes in this research text referring to or commenting Bill’s architectural projects were drawn up keeping in mind the concise precision of his architectural design. As for Mies van der Rohe, it has been written that Max Bill took art to ‘zero degree’ reaching in this way a high complexity. His works are a synthesis of art: they conceptually encompass all previous and –considered their developments- most of contemporary pictures. Contents and message are generally explicitly declared in the title or in Bill’s essays on his artistic works and architectural projects: the beneficiary is invited to go through and re-build the process of synthesis generating the shape. In the course of the interview with the Milan artist Getulio Alviani, he tells how he would not write more than a page for an essay on Josef Albers: everything was already evident ‘on the surface’ and any additional sentence would be redundant. Two years after that interview, these pages attempt to decompose and single out the elements and processes connected with some of Max Bill’s works which, for their own origin, already contain all possible explanations and interpretations. The formal reduction in favour of contents maximization is, perhaps, Max Bill’s main lesson.

The assessment of change in rural landscape and the analysis of the driving forces. Proposal of a spatial model for the rural built environment

The presented study carried out an analysis on rural landscape changes. In particular the study focuses on the understanding of driving forces acting on the rural built environment using a statistical spatial model implemented through GIS techniques. It is well known that the study of landscape changes is essential for a conscious decision making in land planning. From a bibliography review results a general lack of studies dealing with the modeling of rural built environment and hence a theoretical modelling approach for such purpose is needed. The advancement in technology and modernity in building construction and agriculture have gradually changed the rural built environment. In addition, the phenomenon of urbanization of a determined the construction of new volumes that occurred beside abandoned or derelict rural buildings. Consequently there are two types of transformation dynamics affecting mainly the rural built environment that can be observed: the conversion of rural buildings and the increasing of building numbers. It is the specific aim of the presented study to propose a methodology for the development of a spatial model that allows the identification of driving forces that acted on the behaviours of the building allocation. In fact one of the most concerning dynamic nowadays is related to an irrational expansion of buildings sprawl across landscape. The proposed methodology is composed by some conceptual steps that cover different aspects related to the development of a spatial model: the selection of a response variable that better describe the phenomenon under study, the identification of possible driving forces, the sampling methodology concerning the collection of data, the most suitable algorithm to be adopted in relation to statistical theory and method used, the calibration process and evaluation of the model. A different combination of factors in various parts of the territory generated favourable or less favourable conditions for the building allocation and the existence of buildings represents the evidence of such optimum. Conversely the absence of buildings expresses a combination of agents which is not suitable for building allocation. Presence or absence of buildings can be adopted as indicators of such driving conditions, since they represent the expression of the action of driving forces in the land suitability sorting process. The existence of correlation between site selection and hypothetical driving forces, evaluated by means of modeling techniques, provides an evidence of which driving forces are involved in the allocation dynamic and an insight on their level of influence into the process. GIS software by means of spatial analysis tools allows to associate the concept of presence and absence with point futures generating a point process. Presence or absence of buildings at some site locations represent the expression of these driving factors interaction. In case of presences, points represent locations of real existing buildings, conversely absences represent locations were buildings are not existent and so they are generated by a stochastic mechanism. Possible driving forces are selected and the existence of a causal relationship with building allocations is assessed through a spatial model. The adoption of empirical statistical models provides a mechanism for the explanatory variable analysis and for the identification of key driving variables behind the site selection process for new building allocation. The model developed by following the methodology is applied to a case study to test the validity of the methodology. In particular the study area for the testing of the methodology is represented by the New District of Imola characterized by a prevailing agricultural production vocation and were transformation dynamic intensively occurred. The development of the model involved the identification of predictive variables (related to geomorphologic, socio-economic, structural and infrastructural systems of landscape) capable of representing the driving forces responsible for landscape changes.. The calibration of the model is carried out referring to spatial data regarding the periurban and rural area of the study area within the 1975-2005 time period by means of Generalised linear model. The resulting output from the model fit is continuous grid surface where cells assume values ranged from 0 to 1 of probability of building occurrences along the rural and periurban area of the study area. Hence the response variable assesses the changes in the rural built environment occurred in such time interval and is correlated to the selected explanatory variables by means of a generalized linear model using logistic regression. Comparing the probability map obtained from the model to the actual rural building distribution in 2005, the interpretation capability of the model can be evaluated. The proposed model can be also applied to the interpretation of trends which occurred in other study areas, and also referring to different time intervals, depending on the availability of data. The use of suitable data in terms of time, information, and spatial resolution and the costs related to data acquisition, pre-processing, and survey are among the most critical aspects of model implementation. Future in-depth studies can focus on using the proposed model to predict short/medium-range future scenarios for the rural built environment distribution in the study area. In order to predict future scenarios it is necessary to assume that the driving forces do not change and that their levels of influence within the model are not far from those assessed for the time interval used for the calibration.

Percezione della direzione del proprio movimento: dalla registrazione dell'attività corticale al modello computazionale.

The main aim of this thesis is strongly interdisciplinary: it involves and presumes a knowledge on Neurophysiology, to understand the mechanisms that undergo the studied phenomena, a knowledge and experience on Electronics, necessary during the hardware experimental set-up to acquire neuronal data, on Informatics and programming to write the code necessary to control the behaviours of the subjects during experiments and the visual presentation of stimuli. At last, neuronal and statistical models should be well known to help in interpreting data. The project started with an accurate bibliographic research: until now the mechanism of perception of heading (or direction of motion) are still poorly known. The main interest is to understand how the integration of visual information relative to our motion with eye position information happens. To investigate the cortical response to visual stimuli in motion and the integration with eye position, we decided to study an animal model, using Optic Flow expansion and contraction as visual stimuli. In the first chapter of the thesis, the basic aims of the research project are presented, together with the reasons why it’s interesting and important to study perception of motion. Moreover, this chapter describes the methods my research group thought to be more adequate to contribute to scientific community and underlines my personal contribute to the project. The second chapter presents an overview on useful knowledge to follow the main part of the thesis: it starts with a brief introduction on central nervous system, on cortical functions, then it presents more deeply associations areas, which are the main target of our study. Furthermore, it tries to explain why studies on animal models are necessary to understand mechanism at a cellular level, that could not be addressed on any other way. In the second part of the chapter, basics on electrophysiology and cellular communication are presented, together with traditional neuronal data analysis methods. The third chapter is intended to be a helpful resource for future works in the laboratory: it presents the hardware used for experimental sessions, how to control animal behaviour during the experiments by means of C routines and a software, and how to present visual stimuli on a screen. The forth chapter is the main core of the research project and the thesis. In the methods, experimental paradigms, visual stimuli and data analysis are presented. In the results, cellular response of area PEc to visual stimuli in motion combined with different eye positions are shown. In brief, this study led to the identification of different cellular behaviour in relation to focus of expansion (the direction of motion given by the optic flow pattern) and eye position. The originality and importance of the results are pointed out in the conclusions: this is the first study aimed to investigate perception of motion in this particular cortical area. In the last paragraph, a neuronal network model is presented: the aim is simulating cellular pre-saccadic and post-saccadic response of neuron in area PEc, during eye movement tasks. The same data presented in chapter four, are further analysed in chapter fifth. The analysis started from the observation of the neuronal responses during 1s time period in which the visual stimulation was the same. It was clear that cells activities showed oscillations in time, that had been neglected by the previous analysis based on mean firing frequency. Results distinguished two cellular behaviour by their response characteristics: some neurons showed oscillations that changed depending on eye and optic flow position, while others kept the same oscillations characteristics independent of the stimulus. The last chapter discusses the results of the research project, comments the originality and interdisciplinary of the study and proposes some future developments.

Analisi della dinamica e composizione chimica del particolato atmosferico mediante un modello alla mesoscala

The vertical profile of aerosol in the planetary boundary layer of the Milan urban area is studied in terms of its development and chemical composition in a high-resolution modelling framework. The period of study spans a week in summer of 2007 (12-18 July), when continuous LIDAR measurements and a limited set of balloon profiles were collected in the frame of the ASI/QUITSAT project. LIDAR observations show a diurnal development of an aerosol plume that lifts early morning surface emissions to the top of the boundary layer, reaching maximum concentration around midday. Mountain breeze from Alps clean the bottom of the aerosol layer, typically leaving a residual layer at around 1500-2000 m which may survive for several days. During the last two days under analysis, a dust layer transported from Sahara reaches the upper layers of Milan area and affects the aerosol vertical distribution in the boundary layer. Simulation from the MM5/CHIMERE modelling system, carried out at 1 km horizontal resolution, qualitatively reproduced the general features of the Milan aerosol layer observed with LIDAR, including the rise and fall of the aersol plume, the residual layer in altitude and the Saharan dust event. The simulation highlighted the importance of nitrates and secondary organics in its composition. Several sensitivity tests showed that main driving factors leading to the dominance of nitrates in the plume are temperature and gas absorption process. A modelling study turn to the analysis of the vertical aerosol profiles distribution and knowledge of the characterization of the PM at a site near the city of Milan is performed using a model system composed by a meteorological model MM5 (V3-6), the mesoscale model from PSU/NCAR and a Chemical Transport Model (CTM) CHIMERE to simulate the vertical aerosol profile. LiDAR continuous observations and balloon profiles collected during two intensive campaigns in summer 2007 and in winter 2008 in the frame of the ASI/QUITSAT project have been used to perform comparisons in order to evaluate the ability of the aerosol chemistry transport model CHIMERE to simulate the aerosols dynamics and compositions in this area. The comparisons of model aerosols with measurements are carried out over a full time period between 12 July 2007 and 18 July 2007. The comparisons demonstrate the ability of the model to reproduce correctly the aerosol vertical distributions and their temporal variability. As detected by the LiDAR, the model during the period considered, predicts a diurnal development of a plume during the morning and a clearing during the afternoon, typically the plume reaches the top of the boundary layer around mid day, in this time CHIMERE produces highest concentrations in the upper levels as detected by LiDAR. The model, moreover can reproduce LiDAR observes enhancement aerosols concentrations above the boundary layer, attributing the phenomena to dust out intrusion. Another important information from the model analysis regard the composition , it predicts that a large part of the plume is composed by nitrate, in particular during 13 and 16 July 2007 , pointing to the model tendency to overestimates the nitrous component in the particular matter vertical structure . Sensitivity study carried out in this work show that there are a combination of different factor which determine the major nitrous composition of the “plume” observed and in particular humidity temperature and the absorption phenomena are the mainly candidate to explain the principal difference in composition simulated in the period object of this study , in particular , the CHIMERE model seems to be mostly sensitive to the absorption process.

Determinants of child undernutrition in India. A micro-case study to operationalize the Capability Approach

The present research aims at shedding light on the demanding puzzle characterizing the issue of child undernutrition in India. Indeed, the so called ‘Indian development paradox’ identifies the phenomenon according to which higher level of income per capita is recorded alongside a lethargic reduction in the proportion of underweight children aged below three years. Thus, in the time period occurring from 2000 to 2005, real Gross Domestic Production per capita has annually grown at 5.4%, whereas the proportion of children who are underweight has declined from 47% to 46%, a mere one point percent. Such trend opens up the space for discussing the traditionally assumed linkage between income-poverty and undernutrition as well as food intervention as the main focus of policies designed to fight child hunger. Also, it unlocks doors for evaluating the role of an alternative economic approach aiming at explaining undernutrition, such as the Capability Approach. The Capability Approach argues for widening the informational basis to account not only for resources, but also for variables related to liberties, opportunities and autonomy in pursuing what individuals value.The econometric analysis highlights the relevance of including behavioral factors when explaining child undernutrition. In particular, the ability of the mother to move freely in the community without the need of asking permission to her husband or mother-in-law is statistically significant when included in the model, which accounts also for confounding traditional variables, such as economic wealth and food security. Also, focusing on agency, results indicates the necessity of measuring autonomy in different domains and the need of improving the measurement scale for agency data, especially with regards the domain of household duties. Finally, future research is required to investigate policy venues for increasing agency in women and in the communities they live in as viable strategy for reducing the plague of child undernutrition in India.

Deep geometry of subduction below the Andean belt of Colombia as revealed by seismic tomography

In this study new tomographic models of Colombia were calculated. I used the seismicity recorded by the Colombian seismic network during the period 2006-2009. In this time period, the improvement of the seismic network yields more stable hypocentral results with respect to older data set and allows to compute new 3D Vp and Vp/Vs models. The final dataset consists of 10813 P- and 8614 S-arrival times associated to 1405 earthquakes. Tests with synthetic data and resolution analysis indicate that velocity models are well constrained in central, western and southwestern Colombia to a depth of 160 km; the resolution is poor in the northern Colombia and close to Venezuela due to a lack of seismic stations and seismicity. The tomographic models and the relocated seismicity indicate the existence of E-SE subducting Nazca lithosphere beneath central and southern Colombia. The North-South changes in Wadati-Benioff zone, Vp & Vp/Vs pattern and volcanism, show that the downgoing plate is segmented by slab tears E-W directed, suggesting the presence of three sectors. Earthquakes in the northernmost sector represent most of the Colombian seimicity and concentrated on 100-170 km depth interval, beneath the Eastern Cordillera. Here a massive dehydration is inferred, resulting from a delay in the eclogitization of a thickened oceanic crust in a flat-subduction geometry. In this sector a cluster of intermediate-depth seismicity (Bucaramanga Nest) is present beneath the elbow of the Eastern Cordillera, interpreted as the result of massive and highly localized dehydration phenomenon caused by a hyper-hydrous oceanic crust. The central and southern sectors, although different in Vp pattern show, conversely, a continuous, steep and more homogeneous Wadati-Benioff zone with overlying volcanic areas. Here a "normalthickened" oceanic crust is inferred, allowing for a gradual and continuous metamorphic reactions to take place with depth, enabling the fluid migration towards the mantle wedge.