Dynamic graphics of parametrically linked multivariate methods used in compositional data analysis

Many multivariate methods that are apparently distinct can be linked by introducing oneor more parameters in their definition. Methods that can be linked in this way arecorrespondence analysis, unweighted or weighted logratio analysis (the latter alsoknown as "spectral mapping"), nonsymmetric correspondence analysis, principalcomponent analysis (with and without logarithmic transformation of the data) andmultidimensional scaling. In this presentation I will show how several of thesemethods, which are frequently used in compositional data analysis, may be linkedthrough parametrizations such as power transformations, linear transformations andconvex linear combinations. Since the methods of interest here all lead to visual mapsof data, a "movie" can be made where where the linking parameter is allowed to vary insmall steps: the results are recalculated "frame by frame" and one can see the smoothchange from one method to another. Several of these "movies" will be shown, giving adeeper insight into the similarities and differences between these methods.

Implications of dynamic trading for insurance markets

We study the interaction between insurance and capital markets within singlebut general framework.We show that capital markets greatly enhance the risksharing capacity of insurance markets and the scope of risks that areinsurable because efficiency does not depend on the number of agents atrisk, nor on risks being independent, nor on the preferences and endowmentsof agents at risk being the same. We show that agents share risks by buyingfull coverage for their individual risks and provide insurance capitalthrough stock markets.We show that aggregate risk enters private insuranceas positive loading on insurance prices and despite that agents will buyfull coverage. The loading is determined by the risk premium of investorsin the stock market and hence does not depend on the agent s willingnessto pay. Agents provide insurance capital by trading an equally weightedportfolio of insurance company shares and riskless asset. We are able toconstruct agents optimal trading strategies explicitly and for verygeneral preferences.

Dynamic higher order expectations

In models where privately informed agents interact, agents may need to formhigher order expectations, i.e. expectations of other agents' expectations. This paper develops a tractable framework for solving and analyzing linear dynamic rational expectationsmodels in which privately informed agents form higher order expectations. The frameworkis used to demonstrate that the well-known problem of the infinite regress of expectationsidentified by Townsend (1983) can be approximated to an arbitrary accuracy with a finitedimensional representation under quite general conditions. The paper is constructive andpresents a fixed point algorithm for finding an accurate solution and provides weak conditions that ensure that a fixed point exists. To help intuition, Singleton's (1987) asset pricingmodel with disparately informed traders is used as a vehicle for the paper.

Synanthropy and ecological aspects of Muscidae (Diptera) in a tropical dry forest ecosystem in Colombia

The synanthropic index and other ecological aspects of the Muscidae family were evaluated through simultaneous monthly sampling in three different environments (urban, rural and forest) using van Someren-Rydon traps baited with human faeces, chicken viscera and decomposing fish and onion. Four traps were set up in each environment (one per bait item) for 48 hours per month, with samples taken every 12 hours. A total of 5726 specimens were collected, belonging to 19 species and 13 genera. Brontaea normata (+99,9), Brontaea quadristigma (+96,9), Synthesiomyia nudiseta (+96,5), Ophyra aenescens (+96,2), Musca domestica (+95,7) and Atherigona orientalis (+93,8) had the highest synanthropic indices, showing a marked preference for human environments. The most abundant species were B. normata (24,31%), Biopyrellia bipuncta (20,60%) and Pseudoptilolepis nigripoda (15,82%), the latter two showed a preference for uninhabited areas. A total of 11 new records for Colombia were found: Ophyra aenescens, Cyrtoneuropsis pararescita, Morellia basalis, Neomuscina dorsipuncta, Biopyrellia bipuncta, Pseudoptilolepis nigripoda, Neomuscina instabilis, Neomuscina currani, Polietina orbitalis, Neomuscina pictipennis and Cyrtoneuropsis maculipennis. Except for the first four species, the remainder presented negative synantrophy indexes (from minor to major), which would allow to use them as ecological indicators of the disturbance degree of dry forests in Colombia.

Culicidae (Diptera, Culicomorpha) from the western Brazilian Amazon: Juami-Japurá Ecological Station

With 312 trap-hours of sampling effort, 1554 specimens of Culicidae (Diptera) were collected, using CDC and Malaise traps, in nine different locations along the Juami River, within the Juami-Japurá Ecological Station, Amazonas State, Brazil. A list of mosquito species with 54 taxa is presented, which includes three new distributional records for the state of Amazonas. The species found belong to the genera Anopheles, Aedeomyia, Aedes, Psorophora, Culex, Coquillettidia, Sabethes, Wyeomyia and Uranotaenia.

Emergence of Cooperation on Static and Dynamic Networks

Game theory is a branch of applied mathematics used to analyze situation where two or more agents are interacting. Originally it was developed as a model for conflicts and collaborations between rational and intelligent individuals. Now it finds applications in social sciences, eco- nomics, biology (particularly evolutionary biology and ecology), engineering, political science, international relations, computer science, and philosophy. Networks are an abstract representation of interactions, dependencies or relationships. Net- works are extensively used in all the fields mentioned above and in many more. Many useful informations about a system can be discovered by analyzing the current state of a network representation of such system. In this work we will apply some of the methods of game theory to populations of agents that are interconnected. A population is in fact represented by a network of players where one can only interact with another if there is a connection between them. In the first part of this work we will show that the structure of the underlying network has a strong influence on the strategies that the players will decide to adopt to maximize their utility. We will then introduce a supplementary degree of freedom by allowing the structure of the population to be modified along the simulations. This modification allows the players to modify the structure of their environment to optimize the utility that they can obtain.

Insurance with frequent trading: A dynamic analysis of efficient insurance markets

This paper extends existing insurance results on the type of insurance contracts needed for insurance market efficiency toa dynamic setting. It introduces continuosly open markets that allow for more efficient asset allocation. It alsoeliminates the role of preferences and endowments in the classification of risks, which is done primarily in terms of the actuarial properties of the underlying riskprocess. The paper further extends insurability to include correlated and catstrophic events. Under these very general conditions the paper defines a condition that determines whether a small number of standard insurance contracts (together with aggregate assets) suffice to complete markets or one needs to introduce such assets as mutual insurance.

Dynamic optimal law enforcement with learning

We incorporate the process of enforcement learning by assuming that the agency's current marginal cost is a decreasing function of its past experience of detecting and convicting. The agency accumulates data and information (on criminals, on opportunities of crime) enhancing the ability to apprehend in the future at a lower marginal cost.We focus on the impact of enforcement learning on optimal stationary compliance rules. In particular, we show that the optimal stationary fine could be less-than-maximal and the optimal stationary probability of detection could be higher-than-otherwise.

Mating triggers dynamic immune regulations in wood ant queens.

Mating can affect female immunity in multiple ways. On the one hand, the immune system may be activated by pathogens transmitted during mating, sperm and seminal proteins, or wounds inflicted by males. On the other hand, immune defences may also be down-regulated to reallocate resources to reproduction. Ants are interesting models to study post-mating immune regulation because queens mate early in life, store sperm for many years, and use it until their death many years later, while males typically die after mating. This long-term commitment between queens and their mates limits the opportunity for sexual conflict but raises the new constraint of long-term sperm survival. In this study, we examine experimentally the effect of mating on immunity in wood ant queens. Specifically, we compared the phenoloxidase and antibacterial activities of mated and virgin Formica paralugubris queens. Queens had reduced levels of active phenoloxidase after mating, but elevated antibacterial activity 7 days after mating. These results indicate that the process of mating, dealation and ovary activation triggers dynamic patterns of immune regulation in ant queens that probably reflect functional responses to mating and pathogen exposure that are independent of sexual conflict.

Developmental biology, polymorphism and ecological aspects of Stiretrus decemguttatus (Hemiptera, Pentatomidae), an important predator of cassidine beetles

Developmental biology, polymorphism and ecological aspects of Stiretrus decemguttatus (Hemiptera, Pentatomidae), an important predator of cassidine beetles. Stiretrus decemguttatus is an important predator of two species of cassidine beetles, Botanochara sedecimpustulata (Fabricius, 1781) and Zatrephina lineata (Fabricius, 1787) (Coleoptera, Cassidinae), on the Marajó Island, Brazil. It attacks individuals in all development stages, but preys preferentially on late-instar larvae. Its life cycle in the laboratory was 43.70 ± 1.09 days, with an egg incubation period of six days and duration from nymph and adult stages of 16.31 ± 0.11 and 22.10 ± 1.67 days, respectively. The duration of one generation (T) was 12.65 days and the intrinsic population growth rate (r) 0.25. These data reveal the adjustment of the life cycle of S. decemgutattus with those of the two preys, but suggest greater impact on Z. lineata. However, no preference over cassidine species was shown in the laboratory. Up to 17 different color patterns can be found in adults of S. decemguttatus, based on combinations of three basic sets of color markings. Some of them resemble the markings of chrysomelids associated with Ipomoea asarifolia (Convolvulaceae) and are possibly a mimetic ring. Three color patterns were identified in nymphs, none of which was associated with any specific adult color pattern.

Therapist interventions using the Psychodynamic Interventions Rating Scale (PIRS) in dynamic therapy, psychoanalysis and CBT.

Abstract One requirement for psychotherapy research is an accurate assessment of therapeutic interventions across studies. This study compared frequency and depth of therapist interventions from a dynamic perspective across four studies, conducted in four countries, including three treatment arms of psychodynamic psychotherapy, and one each of psychoanalysis and CBT. All studies used the Psychodynamic Intervention Rating Scales (PIRS) to identify 10 interventions from transcribed whole sessions early and later in treatment. The PIRS adequately categorized all interventions, except in CBT (only 91-93% categorized). As hypothesized, interpretations were present in all dynamic therapies and relatively absent in CBT. Proportions of interpretations increased over time. Defense interpretations were more common than transference interpretations, which were most prevalent in psychoanalysis. Depth of interpretations also increased over time. These data can serve as norms for measuring where on the supportive-interpretive continuum a dynamic treatment lies, as well as identify potentially mutative interventions for further process and outcome study.

A dynamic analysis of human welfare in a warming planet

Climate science indicates that climate stabilization requires low GHG emissions. Is thisconsistent with nondecreasing human welfare?Our welfare or utility index emphasizes education, knowledge, and the environment. Weconstruct and calibrate a multigenerational model with intertemporal links provided by education,physical capital, knowledge and the environment.We reject discounted utilitarianism and adopt, first, the Pure Sustainability Optimization (orIntergenerational Maximin) criterion, and, second, the Sustainable Growth Optimization criterion,that maximizes the utility of the first generation subject to a given future rate of growth. We applythese criteria to our calibrated model via a novel algorithm inspired by the turnpike property.The computed paths yield levels of utility higher than the level at reference year 2000 for allgenerations. They require the doubling of the fraction of labor resources devoted to the creation ofknowledge relative to the reference level, whereas the fractions of labor allocated to consumptionand leisure are similar to the reference ones. On the other hand, higher growth rates requiresubstantial increases in the fraction of labor devoted to education, together with moderate increasesin the fractions of labor devoted to knowledge and the investment in physical capital.

Dynamic social representations of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic: Shifting patterns of sense-making and blame

We investigate dynamics of public perceptions of the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic to understand changing patterns of sense-making and blame regarding the outbreak of emerging infectious diseases. We draw on social representation theory combined with a dramaturgical perspective to identify changes in how various collectives are depicted over the course of the pandemic, according to three roles: heroes, villains and victims. Quantitative results based on content analysis of three cross-sectional waves of interviews show a shift from mentions of distant collectives (e.g., far-flung countries) at Wave 1 to local collectives (e.g., risk groups) as the pandemic became of more immediate concern (Wave 2) and declined (Wave 3). Semi-automated content analysis of media coverage shows similar results. Thematic analyses of the discourse associated with collectives revealed that many were consistently perceived as heroes, villains and victims.