A Model for comparing reduced impact logging with conventional logging for an Eastern Amazonian Forest

Using data from a logging experiment in the eastern Brazilian Amazon region, we develop a matrix growth and yield model that captures the dynamic effects of harvest system choice on forest structure and composition. Multinomial logistic regression is used to estimate the growth transition parameters for a 10-year time step, while a Poisson regression model is used to estimate recruitment parameters. The model is designed to be easily integrated with an economic model of decisionmaking to perform tropical forest policy analysis. The model is used to compare the long-run structure and composition of a stand arising from the choice of implementing either conventional logging techniques or more carefully planned and executed reduced-impact logging (RIL) techniques, contrasted against a baseline projection of an unlogged forest. Results from log and leave scenarios show that a stand logged according to Brazilian management requirements will require well over 120 years to recover its initial commercial volume, regardless of logging technique employed. Implementing RIL, however, accelerates this recovery. Scenarios imposing a 40-year cutting cycle raise the possibility of sustainable harvest volumes, although at significantly lower levels than is implied by current regulations. Meeting current Brazilian forest policy goals may require an increase in the planned total area of permanent production forest or the widespread adoption of silvicultural practices that increase stand recovery and volume accumulation rates after RIL harvests. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Water Resources Assessment at Piracicaba, Capivari and Jundiai River Basins: A Dynamic Systems Approach

The Piracicaba, Capivari, and Jundiai River Basins (RB-PCJ) are mainly located in the State of So Paulo, Brazil. Using a dynamics systems simulation model (WRM-PCJ) to assess water resources sustainability, five 50-year simulations were run. WRM-PCJ was developed as a tool to aid decision and policy makers on the RB-PCJ Watershed Committee. The model has 254 variables. The model was calibrated and validated using available information from the 80s. Falkenmark Water Stress Index went from 1,403 m(3) person (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) year (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) in 2004 to 734 m(3) P (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) year (-aEuro parts per thousand 1) in 2054, and Xu Sustainability Index from 0.44 to 0.20. In 2004, the Keller River Basin Development Phase was Conservation, and by 2054 was Augmentation. The three criteria used to evaluate water resources showed that the watershed is at crucial water resources management turning point. The WRM-PCJ performed well, and it proved to be an excellent tool for decision and policy makers at RB-PCJ.

Leaf area index estimation with MODIS reflectance time series and model inversion during full rotations of Eucalyptus plantations

The leaf area index (LAI) of fast-growing Eucalyptus plantations is highly dynamic both seasonally and interannually, and is spatially variable depending on pedo-climatic conditions. LAI is very important in determining the carbon and water balance of a stand, but is difficult to measure during a complete stand rotation and at large scales. Remote-sensing methods allowing the retrieval of LAI time series with accuracy and precision are therefore necessary. Here, we tested two methods for LAI estimation from MODIS 250m resolution red and near-infrared (NIR) reflectance time series. The first method involved the inversion of a coupled model of leaf reflectance and transmittance (PROSPECT4), soil reflectance (SOILSPECT) and canopy radiative transfer (4SAIL2). Model parameters other than the LAI were either fixed to measured constant values, or allowed to vary seasonally and/or with stand age according to trends observed in field measurements. The LAI was assumed to vary throughout the rotation following a series of alternately increasing and decreasing sigmoid curves. The parameters of each sigmoid curve that allowed the best fit of simulated canopy reflectance to MODIS red and NIR reflectance data were obtained by minimization techniques. The second method was based on a linear relationship between the LAI and values of the GEneralized Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (GESAVI), which was calibrated using destructive LAI measurements made at two seasons, on Eucalyptus stands of different ages and productivity levels. The ability of each approach to reproduce field-measured LAI values was assessed, and uncertainty on results and parameter sensitivities were examined. Both methods offered a good fit between measured and estimated LAI (R(2) = 0.80 and R(2) = 0.62 for model inversion and GESAVI-based methods, respectively), but the GESAVI-based method overestimated the LAI at young ages. (C) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The importance of wet-powder dynamic mechanical properties in understanding granulation

Granule impact deformation has long been recognised as important in determining whether or not two colliding granules will coalesce. Work in the last 10 years has highlighted the fact that viscous effects are significant in granulation. The relative strengths of different formulations can vary with strain rate. Therefore, traditional strength measurements made at pseudo-static conditions give no indication, even qualitatively, of how materials will behave at high strain rates, and hence are actually misleading when used to model granule coalescence. This means that new standard methods need to be developed for determining the strain rates encountered by granules inside industrial equipment and also for measuring the mechanical properties of granules at these strain rates. The constitutive equations used in theoretical models of granule coalescence also need to be extended to include strain-rate dependent components.

Regulation of photosynthetic pigments in micro-algae by multiple environmental factors: a dynamic balance hypothesis

Environmental effects on the concentration of photosynthetic pigments in micro-algae can be explained by dynamics of photosystem synthesis and deactivation. A model that couples photosystem losses to the relative cellular rates of energy harvesting (light absorption) and assimilation predicts optimal concentrations of light-harvesting pigments and balanced energy flow under environmental conditions that affect light availability and metabolic rates. Effects of light intensity, nutrient supply and temperature on growth rate and pigment levels were similar to general patterns observed across diverse micro-algal taxa. Results imply that dynamic behaviour associated with photophysical stress, and independent of gene regulation, might constitute one mechanism for photo-acclimation of photosynthesis.

Two dimensional computational fluid dynamic models for waste stabilisation ponds

Traditional waste stabilisation pond (WSP) models encounter problems predicting pond performance because they cannot account for the influence of pond features, such as inlet structure or pond geometry, on fluid hydrodynamics. In this study, two dimensional (2-D) computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models were compared to experimental residence time distributions (RTD) from literature. In one of the-three geometries simulated, the 2-D CFD model successfully predicted the experimental RTD. However, flow patterns in the other two geometries were not well described due to the difficulty of representing the three dimensional (3-D) experimental inlet in the 2-D CFD model, and the sensitivity of the model results to the assumptions used to characterise the inlet. Neither a velocity similarity nor geometric similarity approach to inlet representation in 2-D gave results correlating with experimental data. However. it was shown that 2-D CFD models were not affected by changes in values of model parameters which are difficult to predict, particularly the turbulent inlet conditions. This work suggests that 2-D CFD models cannot be used a priori to give an adequate description of the hydrodynamic patterns in WSP. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimal release strategies for biological control agents: an application of stochastic dynamic programming to population management

1. Establishing biological control agents in the field is a major step in any classical biocontrol programme, yet there are few general guidelines to help the practitioner decide what factors might enhance the establishment of such agents. 2. A stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) approach, linked to a metapopulation model, was used to find optimal release strategies (number and size of releases), given constraints on time and the number of biocontrol agents available. By modelling within a decision-making framework we derived rules of thumb that will enable biocontrol workers to choose between management options, depending on the current state of the system. 3. When there are few well-established sites, making a few large releases is the optimal strategy. For other states of the system, the optimal strategy ranges from a few large releases, through a mixed strategy (a variety of release sizes), to many small releases, as the probability of establishment of smaller inocula increases. 4. Given that the probability of establishment is rarely a known entity, we also strongly recommend a mixed strategy in the early stages of a release programme, to accelerate learning and improve the chances of finding the optimal approach.

An assumption-driven case-specific model editor

A case sensitive intelligent model editor has been developed for constructing consistent lumped dynamic process models and for simplifying them using modelling assumptions. The approach is based on a systematic assumption-driven modelling procedure and on the syntax and semantics of process,models and the simplifying assumptions.

Tidal fluctuations in a leaky confined aquifer: Dynamic effects of an overlying phreatic aquifer

Tidal fluctuations in a leaky confined coastal aquifer are damped significantly due to leakage into an overlying phreatic aquifer. Jiao and Tang [1999] presented an analytical solution to a simple model describing this phenomenon. Their solution assumes that the tidal fluctuations in the overlying phreatic aquifer are negligible (i.e,, a static phreatic aquifer), Here we examine dynamic effects of the overlying aquifer based on a new approximate analytical solution. The numerical results indicate that the dynamic effects can be significant for a relatively large leakage and a high transmissivity of the phreatic aquifer.

Using stochastic dynamic programming to determine optimal fire management for Banksia ornata

1. A model of the population dynamics of Banksia ornata was developed, using stochastic dynamic programming (a state-dependent decision-making tool), to determine optimal fire management strategies that incorporate trade-offs between biodiversity conservation and fuel reduction. 2. The modelled population of B. ornata was described by its age and density, and was exposed to the risk of unplanned fires and stochastic variation in germination success. 3. For a given population in each year, three management strategies were considered: (i) lighting a prescribed fire; (ii) controlling the incidence of unplanned fire; (iii) doing nothing. 4. The optimal management strategy depended on the state of the B. ornata population, with the time since the last fire (age of the population) being the most important variable. Lighting a prescribed fire at an age of less than 30 years was only optimal when the density of seedlings after a fire was low (< 100 plants ha(-1)) or when there were benefits of maintaining a low fuel load by using more frequent fire. 5. Because the cost of management was assumed to be negligible (relative to the value of the persistence of the population), the do-nothing option was never the optimal strategy, although lighting prescribed fires had only marginal benefits when the mean interval between unplanned fires was less than 20-30 years.

A 2D numerical model for simulating the physics of fault systems

Simulations provide a powerful means to help gain the understanding of crustal fault system physics required to progress towards the goal of earthquake forecasting. Cellular Automata are efficient enough to probe system dynamics but their simplifications render interpretations questionable. In contrast, sophisticated elasto-dynamic models yield more convincing results but are too computationally demanding to explore phase space. To help bridge this gap, we develop a simple 2D elastodynamic model of parallel fault systems. The model is discretised onto a triangular lattice and faults are specified as split nodes along horizontal rows in the lattice. A simple numerical approach is presented for calculating the forces at medium and split nodes such that general nonlinear frictional constitutive relations can be modeled along faults. Single and multi-fault simulation examples are presented using a nonlinear frictional relation that is slip and slip-rate dependent in order to illustrate the model.

An analysis of US greenhouse gas cap-and-trade proposals using a forward-looking economic model

We develop a forward-looking version of the recursive dynamic MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, and apply it to examine the economic implications of proposals in the US Congress to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We find that shocks in the consumption path are smoothed out in the forward-looking model and that the lifetime welfare cost of GHG policy is lower than in the recursive model, since the forward-looking model can fully optimize over time. The forward-looking model allows us to explore issues for which it is uniquely well suited, including revenue-recycling and early action crediting. We find capital tax recycling to be more welfare-cost reducing than labor tax recycling because of its long-term effect on economic growth. Also, there are substantial incentives for early action credits; however, when spread over the full horizon of the policy they do not have a substantial effect on lifetime welfare costs.

Forward-looking versus recursive-dynamic modeling in climate policy analysis: A comparison

This paper develops a multi-regional general equilibrium model for climate policy analysis based on the latest version of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model. We develop two versions so that we can solve the model either as a fully inter-temporal optimization problem (forward-looking, perfect foresight) or recursively. The standard EPPA model on which these models are based is solved recursively, and it is necessary to simplify some aspects of it to make inter-temporal solution possible. The forward-looking capability allows one to better address economic and policy issues such as borrowing and banking of GHG allowances, efficiency implications of environmental tax recycling, endogenous depletion of fossil resources, international capital flows, and optimal emissions abatement paths among others. To evaluate the solution approaches, we benchmark each version to the same macroeconomic path, and then compare the behavior of the two versions under a climate policy that restricts greenhouse gas emissions. We find that the energy sector and CO(2) price behavior are similar in both versions (in the recursive version of the model we force the inter-temporal theoretical efficiency result that abatement through time should be allocated such that the CO(2) price rises at the interest rate.) The main difference that arises is that the macroeconomic costs are substantially lower in the forward-looking version of the model, since it allows consumption shifting as an additional avenue of adjustment to the policy. On the other hand, the simplifications required for solving the model as an optimization problem, such as dropping the full vintaging of the capital stock and fewer explicit technological options, likely have effects on the results. Moreover, inter-temporal optimization with perfect foresight poorly represents the real economy where agents face high levels of uncertainty that likely lead to higher costs than if they knew the future with certainty. We conclude that while the forward-looking model has value for some problems, the recursive model produces similar behavior in the energy sector and provides greater flexibility in the details of the system that can be represented. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dynamic susceptibility investigation of maghemite nanoparticles incorporated in bovine serum albumin template

Room-temperature measurements of the magnetic susceptibility of Bovine Serum Albumin-based nanocapsules (50 to 300 nm in size) loaded with different amounts of maghemite nanoparticles (7.6 nm average diameter) have been carried out in this study The field (H) dependence of the imaginary peak susceptibility (f(P)) of the nanocomposite samples was investigated in the range of 0 to 4 kOe. From the analysis of the f(P) x H curves the concentration (N) dependence of the effective maghemite magnetocrystalline energy barrier (E) was obtained. Analysis of the E x N data was performed using a modified Morup-Tronc [Phys. Rev. Lett. 72, 3278 (1994)] model, from which a huge contribution from the magnetocrystalline surface anisotropy was observed.

Hyaluronidase Behavior at the Air/Liquid and Air/Lipid Interfaces and Improved Enzymatic Activity by Its Immobilization in a Biomembrane Model

Bovine testicular hyalurphidase (BT-HAase), a tetrameric enzyme responsible for randomly hyaluronic acid, catalytic hydrolysis, was successfully immobilized on Langmuir- Blodgett films prepared with the sodium salt of dihexadacylphosphoric acid, (DHP-Zn(II)) ending with dipalmitoylphosphatidylcholine, DPPC. Data of protein, adsorption at the air-liquid interface by means of pendant drop shipe analysis and interaction of the protein with Langmuir monolayers of DPPC, using a Langmuir trough, have provided information. about the conditions to be used in the protein immobilization. The dynamic surface pressure curves obtained from pendant drop experiments for the enzyme in buffer solutions indicate that, within the range of concentration investigated in this study, the enzyme exhibits the largest induction time at 5 mu g L(-1) attributed to diffusion processes. Nevertheless, it seems that, at this concentration, the most probable conformation should be the one which occupies the smallest area at pi -> 0. The surface pressure (pi) area curves obtained for BT-HAase and mixed DPPC- BT-HAase monolayers reveal the presence of the enzyme at the air-lipid interface up to 45 mN m(-1). Tests of enzymatic activity, using hyaluronic acid, HA, as the substrate, showed an increase of activity compared to the homogeneous medium. A simplified model of protein insertion into the lipid matrix is used to explain the obtained results.