998 resultados para Distribuição teórica de probabilidades


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The usual programs for load flow calculation were in general developped aiming the simulation of electric energy transmission, subtransmission and distribution systems. However, the mathematical methods and algorithms used by the formulations were based, in majority, just on the characteristics of the transmittion systems, which were the main concern focus of engineers and researchers. Though, the physical characteristics of these systems are quite different from the distribution ones. In the transmission systems, the voltage levels are high and the lines are generally very long. These aspects contribute the capacitive and inductive effects that appear in the system to have a considerable influence in the values of the interest quantities, reason why they should be taken into consideration. Still in the transmission systems, the loads have a macro nature, as for example, cities, neiborhoods, or big industries. These loads are, generally, practically balanced, what reduces the necessity of utilization of three-phase methodology for the load flow calculation. Distribution systems, on the other hand, present different characteristics: the voltage levels are small in comparison to the transmission ones. This almost annul the capacitive effects of the lines. The loads are, in this case, transformers, in whose secondaries are connected small consumers, in a sort of times, mono-phase ones, so that the probability of finding an unbalanced circuit is high. This way, the utilization of three-phase methodologies assumes an important dimension. Besides, equipments like voltage regulators, that use simultaneously the concepts of phase and line voltage in their functioning, need a three-phase methodology, in order to allow the simulation of their real behavior. For the exposed reasons, initially was developped, in the scope of this work, a method for three-phase load flow calculation in order to simulate the steady-state behaviour of distribution systems. Aiming to achieve this goal, the Power Summation Algorithm was used, as a base for developping the three phase method. This algorithm was already widely tested and approved by researchers and engineers in the simulation of radial electric energy distribution systems, mainly for single-phase representation. By our formulation, lines are modeled in three-phase circuits, considering the magnetic coupling between the phases; but the earth effect is considered through the Carson reduction. Its important to point out that, in spite of the loads being normally connected to the transformers secondaries, was considered the hypothesis of existence of star or delta loads connected to the primary circuit. To perform the simulation of voltage regulators, a new model was utilized, allowing the simulation of various types of configurations, according to their real functioning. Finally, was considered the possibility of representation of switches with current measuring in various points of the feeder. The loads are adjusted during the iteractive process, in order to match the current in each switch, converging to the measured value specified by the input data. In a second stage of the work, sensibility parameters were derived taking as base the described load flow, with the objective of suporting further optimization processes. This parameters are found by calculating of the partial derivatives of a variable in respect to another, in general, voltages, losses and reactive powers. After describing the calculation of the sensibility parameters, the Gradient Method was presented, using these parameters to optimize an objective function, that will be defined for each type of study. The first one refers to the reduction of technical losses in a medium voltage feeder, through the installation of capacitor banks; the second one refers to the problem of correction of voltage profile, through the instalation of capacitor banks or voltage regulators. In case of the losses reduction will be considered, as objective function, the sum of the losses in all the parts of the system. To the correction of the voltage profile, the objective function will be the sum of the square voltage deviations in each node, in respect to the rated voltage. In the end of the work, results of application of the described methods in some feeders are presented, aiming to give insight about their performance and acuity

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The reconfiguration of a distribution network is a change in its topology, aiming to provide specific operation conditions of the network, by changing the status of its switches. It can be performed regardless of any system anomaly. The service restoration is a particular case of reconfiguration and should be performed whenever there is a network failure or whenever one or more sections of a feeder have been taken out of service for maintenance. In such cases, loads that are supplied through lines sections that are downstream of portions removed for maintenance may be supplied by the closing of switches to the others feeders. By classical methods of reconfiguration, several switches may be required beyond those used to perform the restoration service. This includes switching feeders in the same substation or for substations that do not have any direct connection to the faulted feeder. These operations can cause discomfort, losses and dissatisfaction among consumers, as well as a negative reputation for the energy company. The purpose of this thesis is to develop a heuristic for reconfiguration of a distribution network, upon the occurrence of a failure in this network, making the switching only for feeders directly involved in this specific failed segment, considering that the switching applied is related exclusively to the isolation of failed sections and bars, as well as to supply electricity to the islands generated by the condition, with significant reduction in the number of applications of load flows, due to the use of sensitivity parameters for determining voltages and currents estimated on bars and lines of the feeders directly involved with that failed segment. A comparison between this process and classical methods is performed for different test networks from the literature about networks reconfiguration

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The idea of considering imprecision in probabilities is old, beginning with the Booles George work, who in 1854 wanted to reconcile the classical logic, which allows the modeling of complete ignorance, with probabilities. In 1921, John Maynard Keynes in his book made explicit use of intervals to represent the imprecision in probabilities. But only from the work ofWalley in 1991 that were established principles that should be respected by a probability theory that deals with inaccuracies. With the emergence of the theory of fuzzy sets by Lotfi Zadeh in 1965, there is another way of dealing with uncertainty and imprecision of concepts. Quickly, they began to propose several ways to consider the ideas of Zadeh in probabilities, to deal with inaccuracies, either in the events associated with the probabilities or in the values of probabilities. In particular, James Buckley, from 2003 begins to develop a probability theory in which the fuzzy values of the probabilities are fuzzy numbers. This fuzzy probability, follows analogous principles to Walley imprecise probabilities. On the other hand, the uses of real numbers between 0 and 1 as truth degrees, as originally proposed by Zadeh, has the drawback to use very precise values for dealing with uncertainties (as one can distinguish a fairly element satisfies a property with a 0.423 level of something that meets with grade 0.424?). This motivated the development of several extensions of fuzzy set theory which includes some kind of inaccuracy. This work consider the Krassimir Atanassov extension proposed in 1983, which add an extra degree of uncertainty to model the moment of hesitation to assign the membership degree, and therefore a value indicate the degree to which the object belongs to the set while the other, the degree to which it not belongs to the set. In the Zadeh fuzzy set theory, this non membership degree is, by default, the complement of the membership degree. Thus, in this approach the non-membership degree is somehow independent of the membership degree, and this difference between the non-membership degree and the complement of the membership degree reveals the hesitation at the moment to assign a membership degree. This new extension today is called of Atanassov s intuitionistic fuzzy sets theory. It is worth noting that the term intuitionistic here has no relation to the term intuitionistic as known in the context of intuitionistic logic. In this work, will be developed two proposals for interval probability: the restricted interval probability and the unrestricted interval probability, are also introduced two notions of fuzzy probability: the constrained fuzzy probability and the unconstrained fuzzy probability and will eventually be introduced two notions of intuitionistic fuzzy probability: the restricted intuitionistic fuzzy probability and the unrestricted intuitionistic fuzzy probability

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This work presents a theoretical and numerical analysis of structures using frequency selective surfaces applied on patch antennas. The FDTD method is used to determine the time domain reflected fields. Applications of frequency selective surfaces and patch antennas cover a wide area of telecommunications, especially mobile communications, filters and WB antennas. scattering parameters are obteained from Fourier Transformer of transmited and reflected fields in time domain. The PML are used as absorbing boundary condition, allowing the determination of the fields with a small interference of reflections from discretized limit space. Rectangular patches are considered on dielectric layer and fed by microstrip line. Frequency selective surfaces with periodic and quasi-periodic structures are analyzed on both sides of antenna. A literature review of the use of frequency selective surfaces in patch antennas are also performed. Numerical results are also compared with measured results for return loss of analyzed structures. It is also presented suggestions of continuity to this work

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico

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In the operation of sowing with planter numerous factors interfere with the establishment of the plant stand, among them, the longitudinal distribution of seeds depending on the displacement speed can significantly affect crop productivity.The present study aimed the evaluation of longitudinal distribution of maize seeds in two different speeds of dislocation of a precision grain drill, through classical and geostatistics. A regular grid sample, totalizing 100 points in each area, was built with 10-meter distance among the points. Each sample point comprised 3.6m(2) (1.8 x 2.0) where the percentage of acceptable, double and fail spacing among the plants was measured after sowing at 4.58 and 5.94 km h(-1) speed of dislocation. Classical and geostatistics were used for data analyses. The percentage of acceptable and failed spacing has shown significant difference between 4.58 and 5.94 km h(-1) speed. The results has shown absence of spatial dependence regarding the percentage of the studied spacing (acceptable, fail and double) at both speeds, showing that studies and statistical inferences can occur based on parameters of classical statistics for distances higher than the shortest one used in the sampling.

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A distribuição radicular de duas cultivares de aspargo (New Jersey 220 e UC 157 F1), irrigadas por aspersão convencional, foi avaliada durante o ano de 1997 em solos de textura arenosa, em plantio experimental e comercial, respectivamente, nos Projetos de Irrigação de Bebedouro e Senador Nilo Coelho, em Petrolina (PE). O objetivo foi obter informações do sistema radicular do aspargo, empregando-se os métodos do monolito e do perfil de solo auxiliado pela análise de imagens digitais, para o manejo de solo e água nesse cultivo. Na área experimental, a maior parte da matéria seca, área e comprimento de raízes no perfil de solo e densidade de comprimento radicular foram encontradas até a profundidade de 0,4 m nas duas cultivares, enquanto que na comercial a maior parte da área e comprimento de raízes no perfil do solo estendeu-se até a profundidade de 0,6 m (cv. New Jersey 220). Nesses dois plantios, as raízes das cultivares atingiram a profundidade de 1 m. Na área experimental, a massa seca, a área e o comprimento no perfil de solo, e a densidade de comprimento radicular nas cultivares concentraram-se até a distância de 0,6 m à linha de plantas. No intervalo de diâmetro (d) de raízes 2de raízes variou entre 2,4 e 2,6 mm (cv. New Jersey 220) e 2,4 e 3,6 mm (cv. UC 157 F1). As estimativas da distribuição e do diâmetro radicular apresentaram similaridades considerando os métodos empregados.

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Currently great emphasis is given for seed metering that assist rigorous demands in relation to longitudinal distribution of seeds, as well as to the index of fails in spacing laws, breaks and double seeds. The evaluation of these variable demands much time and work of attainment of data and processing. The objective of this work went propose to use of graphs of normal probability, facilitating the treatment of the data and decreasing the time of processing. The evaluation methodology consists in the counting of broken seeds, fail spacing and double seeds through the measure of the spacing among seeds, preliminary experiments through combinations of treatments had been carried through whose factors of variation were the level of the reservoir of seeds, the leveling of the seed metering, the speed of displacement and dosage of seeds. The evaluation was carried through in two parts, first through preliminary experiments for elaboration of the graphs of normal probability and later in experiments with bigger sampling for evaluation of the influence of the factors most important. It was done the evaluation of seed metering of rotating internal ring, and the amount of necessary data for the evaluation was very decreased through of the graphs of normal probability that facilitated to prioritize only the significant factors. The dosage of seeds was factor that more important because factor (D) have greater significance.

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Dois dos principais objetivos no estudo da aerodinâmica de veículos é a segurança e o desempenho. Esses objetivos podem ser alcançados através do desenvolvimento de dispositivos que modifiquem o escoamento de ar ao redor do veículo e também através de alterações da forma das superfícies externas. O perfil mais baixo da frente do veículo, por exemplo, tem grande influência sobre o coeficiente de penetração aerodinâmica (Cx) e posteriormente sobre grande parte da distribuição de pressão ao longo da superfície do veículo. O objetivo deste trabalho foi de analisar o comportamento aerodinâmico que incide sobre 2 (dois) tipos de carrocerias de veículos, baseado em experimentação em túnel aerodinâmico, visando determinar a eficiência aerodinâmica de cada uma delas. Foram comparados dois modelos de veículos, sendo um deles com configuração familiar, muito comum nas grandes cidades e outro modelo com configuração esportiva mais voltado para o desempenho, ambos com escala 1:18. Para a realização do experimento foi construído um túnel aerodinâmico do tipo soprador com circuito aberto, onde foram analisadas as distribuições de pressão nas superfícies inferiores e superiores da carroceria dos modelos e o deslocamento da camada-limite. Tomando-se por base toda a teórica deste trabalho, com relação à aerodinâmica de carroceria, considerou-se nesta dissertação que essa filosofia de pesquisa é capaz de gerar reflexos positivos, que podem tornar os veículos cada vez mais eficientes e influenciar positivamente nos níveis de segurança e desempenho

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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O experimento teve como objetivo avaliar a distribuição das raízes do maracujazeiro-doce (Passiflora alata Dryand), cultivado em Nitossolo Vermelho, sob adubação química e orgânica, em Botucatu-SP. Foram utilizadas plantas com 19 meses de idade, em produção, conduzidas em latada e com irrigação. Os tratamentos com fertilizantes químicos e esterco de curral curtido foram os seguintes: T1 (400 g de sulfato de amônia), T2 (2,5kg de esterco), T3 (5,0kg de esterco), T4 (7,5kg de esterco) e T5 (10,0kg de esterco), acrescidos de 200g de termofosfato, 137g de cloreto de potássio e 2,0kg de calcário por planta, em todos os tratamentos, parcelados em duas aplicações. Foram empregadas 3 plantas por tratamento, sendo retiradas quatro amostras de cada uma, a 0-20 e 20-40cm de profundidade e distância do tronco. Os resultados evidenciaram que não houve diferenças significativas entre os tratamentos para massa seca das raízes. em todos os tratamentos, houve concentração das raízes a 0-20cm de distância do tronco. Nas parcelas com adubo orgânico, houve melhor distribuição das raízes em profundidade.

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Com o objetivo de avaliar a uniformidade da distribuição volumétrica e o efeito da angulação dos bicos na barra em pulverizações, foi conduzido experimento em laboratório, com dez unidades de cada uma das pontas de jato plano XR 11003 e de jato cônico vazio TXVK-4, fabricadas pela Spraying Systems Co. As pontas XR 11003 foram avaliadas, isoladamente, em mesa de prova para bicos construída conforme a Norma ISO 5682-1:1996, a 0,30; 0,40 e 0,50 m de altura, submetidas à pressão de 200 e 300 kPa e posicionadas com ângulos de 30º e 45º no sentido horário e anti-horário e na vertical; as pontas TXVK-4 foram avaliadas nas mesmas alturas, porém a 300 e 400 kPa, e somente na vertical. A distribuição média do volume coletado em cada configuração, das dez unidades de cada ponta, foi inserida num programa computacional, desenvolvido para o estudo, que permitiu a simulação do padrão de deposição de uma barra pulverizadora, com 24 bicos, com sobreposições variáveis, obtendo-se, ao final, o coeficiente de variação da sobreposição, o desvio- padrão e a média do volume aplicado. Os resultados sugerem a necessidade de ajustes no espaçamento entre bicos para a obtenção de melhor uniformidade na distribuição, principalmente quando se utiliza ângulo na barra; há menor influência da variação da altura da barra sobre a uniformidade da distribuição quando o espaçamento entre bicos é reduzido.

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Foram avaliados os perfis de distribuição volumétrica das pontas de pulverização de jato plano Extended Range XR 8004, Teejet TP 8004 e TwinJet TJ60-8004, em mesa de teste construída segundo a norma ISO 5.682-1:1996, sendo as pontas de pulverização posicionadas a 30, 40 e 50 cm de altura da mesa coletora, submetidas à pressão de 200 e 300 kPa, e posicionadas com ângulos de 30 e 45º nos sentidos horário e anti-horário e na posição vertical (0º). As pontas TJ60-8004 foram analisadas nas mesmas alturas, porém somente na posição vertical. Avaliaram-se 10 unidades de cada tipo de ponta, instaladas isoladamente na mesa. A distribuição média do volume pulverizado, coletado nas provetas, foi inserida em programa computacional, que permitiu a simulação do perfil de distribuição de uma barra pulverizadora com 24 bicos, em espaçamentos variáveis, obtendo-se ao final o coeficiente de variação, o desvio-padrão e a média do volume. Os resultados mostraram que a uniformidade de distribuição é menos influenciada pela variação da altura da barra quando o espaçamento entre bicos é reduzido e que há necessidade de adequação do espaçamento quando se utiliza ângulo na barra pulverizadora.