Review of size- and age-dependence in batch spawning: implications for stock assessment of fish species exhibiting indeterminate fecundity

Most assessments of fish stocks use some measure of the reproductive potential of a population, such as spawning biomass. However, the correlation between spawning biomass and reproductive potential is not always strong, and it likely is weakest in the tropics and subtropics, where species tend to exhibit indeterminate fecundity and release eggs in batches over a protracted spawning season. In such cases, computing annual reproductive output requires estimates of batch fecundity and the annual number of batches—the latter subject to spawning frequency and duration of spawning season. Batch fecundity is commonly measured by age (or size), but these other variables are not. Without the relevant data, the annual number of batches is assumed to be invariant across age. We reviewed the literature and found that this default assumption lacks empirical support because both spawning duration and spawning frequency generally increase with age or size. We demonstrate effects of this assumption on measures of reproductive value and spawning potential ratio, a metric commonly used to gauge stock status. Model applications showed substantial sensitivity to age dependence in the annual number of batches. If the annual number of batches increases with age but is incorrectly assumed to be constant, stock assessment models would tend to overestimate the biological reference points used for setting harvest rates. This study underscores the need to better understand the age- or size-dependent contrast in the annual number of batches, and we conclude that, for species without evidence to support invariance, the default assumption should be replaced with one that accounts for age- or size-dependence.

Scientific assessment of hypoxia in U.S. coastal waters

The occurrence of hypoxia, or low dissolved oxygen, is increasing in coastal waters worldwide and represents a significant threat to the health and economy of our Nation’s coasts and Great Lakes. This trend is exemplified most dramatically off the coast of Louisiana and Texas, where the second largest eutrophication-related hypoxic zone in the world is associated with the nutrient pollutant load discharged by the Mississippi and Atchafalaya Rivers. Aquatic organisms require adequate dissolved oxygen to survive. The term “dead zone” is often used in reference to the absence of life (other than bacteria) from habitats that are devoid of oxygen. The inability to escape low oxygen areas makes immobile species, such as oysters and mussels, particularly vulnerable to hypoxia. These organisms can become stressed and may die due to hypoxia, resulting in significant impacts on marine food webs and the economy. Mobile organisms can flee the affected area when dissolved oxygen becomes too low. Nevertheless, fish kills can result from hypoxia, especially when the concentration of dissolved oxygen drops rapidly. New research is clarifying when hypoxia will cause fish kills as opposed to triggering avoidance behavior by fish. Further, new studies are better illustrating how habitat loss associated with hypoxia avoidance can impose ecological and economic costs, such as reduced growth in commercially harvested species and loss of biodiversity, habitat, and biomass. Transient or “diel-cycling” hypoxia, where conditions cycle from supersaturation of oxygen late in the afternoon to hypoxia or anoxia near dawn, most often occurs in shallow, eutrophic systems (e.g., nursery ground habitats) and may have pervasive impacts on living resources because of both its location and frequency of occurrence.

Shock / boundary-layer interaction control using three-dimensional bumps for transonic wings

Three-dimensional bumps have been developed and investigated, aiming at the two major objectives of shock-wave / boundary-layer interaction control, i.e. drag reduction and suppression of separation, simultaneously. An experimental investigation has been conducted for a default rounded bump in channel now at University of Cambridge and a computational study has been performed for a spanwise series of rounded bumps mounted on a transonic aerofoil at University of Stuttgart. Observed in both cases are wave drag reduction owing to A-shock structures produced by three-dimensional surface bumps and mild control effects on the boundary layer. The effects of rough surface and tall extension have been investigated as well as several geometric variations and multiple bump configurations. A double configuration of narrow rounded bumps has been found to best perform amongst the tested, considerably reducing wave drag through a well-established A-shock structure with little viscous penalty and thus achieving substantial overall drag reduction. Counter-rotating streamwise vortex pairs have been produced by some configurations as a result of local flow separation, but they have been observed to be confined in relatively narrow wake regions, expected to be beneficial in suppressing large-scale separation under off-design condition despite increase of viscous drag. On the whole a large potential of three-dimensional control with discrete rounded bumps has been demonstrated both experimentally and numerically, and experimental investigation of bumps fitted on a transonic aerofoil or wing is suggested toward practical application.

Model based learning of sigma points in unscented Kalman filtering

The unscented Kalman filter (UKF) is a widely used method in control and time series applications. The UKF suffers from arbitrary parameters necessary for a step known as sigma point placement, causing it to perform poorly in nonlinear problems. We show how to treat sigma point placement in a UKF as a learning problem in a model based view. We demonstrate that learning to place the sigma points correctly from data can make sigma point collapse much less likely. Learning can result in a significant increase in predictive performance over default settings of the parameters in the UKF and other filters designed to avoid the problems of the UKF, such as the GP-ADF. At the same time, we maintain a lower computational complexity than the other methods. We call our method UKF-L. ©2010 IEEE.

Model based learning of sigma points in unscented Kalman filtering

The unscented Kalman filter (UKF) is a widely used method in control and time series applications. The UKF suffers from arbitrary parameters necessary for sigma point placement, potentially causing it to perform poorly in nonlinear problems. We show how to treat sigma point placement in a UKF as a learning problem in a model based view. We demonstrate that learning to place the sigma points correctly from data can make sigma point collapse much less likely. Learning can result in a significant increase in predictive performance over default settings of the parameters in the UKF and other filters designed to avoid the problems of the UKF, such as the GP-ADF. At the same time, we maintain a lower computational complexity than the other methods. We call our method UKF-L. © 2011 Elsevier B.V.

Fault-tolerant model predictive control of a wind turbine benchmark

This paper aims to solve the fault tolerant control problem of a wind turbine benchmark. A hierarchical controller with model predictive pre-compensators, a global model predictive controller and a supervisory controller is proposed. In the model predictive pre-compensator, an extended Kalman Filter is designed to estimate the system states and various fault parameters. Based on the estimation, a group of model predictive controllers are designed to compensate the fault effects for each component of the wind turbine. The global MPC is used to schedule the operation of the components and exploit potential system-level redundancies. Extensive simulations of various fault conditions show that the proposed controller has small transients when faults occur and uses smoother and smaller generator torque and pitch angle inputs than the default controller. This paper shows that MPC can be a good candidate for fault tolerant controllers, especially the one with an adaptive internal model combined with a parameter estimation and update mechanism, such as an extended Kalman Filter. © 2012 IFAC.

Ageing, Adaption and Accessibility: Time for the Inclusive Revolution!

Information and Communication Technology (ICT) is becoming increasingly central to many people’s lives, making it possible to be connected in any place at any time, be unceasingly and instantly informed, and benefit from greater economic and educational opportunities. With all the benefits afforded by these new-found capabilities, however, come potential drawbacks. A plethora of new PCs, laptops, tablets, smartphones, Bluetooth, the internet, Wi-Fi (the list goes on) expect us to know or be able to guess, what, where and when to connect, click, double-click, tap, flick, scroll, in order to realise these benefits, and to have the physical and cognitive capability to do all these things. One of the groups most affected by this increase in high-demand technology is older people. They do not understand and use technology in the same way that younger generations do, because they grew up in the simpler electro-mechanical era and embedded that particular model of the world in their minds. Any consequential difficulty in familiarising themselves with modern ICT and effectively applying it to their needs can also be exacerbated by age-related changes in vision, motor control and cognitive functioning. Such challenges lead to digital exclusion. Much has been written about this topic over the years, usually by academics from the area of inclusive product design. The issue is complex and it is fair to say that no one researcher has the whole picture. It is difficult to understand and adequately address the issue of digital exclusion among the older generation without looking across disciplines and at industry’s and government’s understanding, motivation and efforts toward resolving this important problem. To do otherwise is to risk misunderstanding the true impact that ICT has and could have on people’s lives across all generations. In this European year of Active Ageing and Solidarity between Generations and as the British government is moving forward with its Digital by Default initiative as part of a wider objective to make ICT accessible to as many people as possible by 2015, the Engineering Design Centre (EDC) at the University of Cambridge collaborated with BT to produce a book of thought pieces to address, and where appropriate redress, these important and long-standing issues. “Ageing, Adaption and Accessibility: Time for the Inclusive Revolution!” brings together opinions and insights from twenty one prominent thought leaders from government, industry and academia regarding the problems, opportunities and strategies for combating digital exclusion among senior citizens. The contributing experts were selected as individuals, rather than representatives of organisations, to provide the broadest possible range of perspectives. They are renowned in their respective fields and their opinions are formed not only from their own work, but also from the contributions of others in their area. Their views were elicited through conversations conducted by the editors of this book who then drafted the thought pieces to be edited and approved by the experts. We hope that this unique collection of thought pieces will give you a broader perspective on ageing, people’s adaption to the ever changing world of technology and insights into better ways of designing digital devices and services for the older population.

Beyond 2D-grids: A dependence maximization view on image browsing

Ideally, one would like to perform image search using an intuitive and friendly approach. Many existing image search engines, however, present users with sets of images arranged in some default order on the screen, typically the relevance to a query, only. While this certainly has its advantages, arguably, a more flexible and intuitive way would be to sort images into arbitrary structures such as grids, hierarchies, or spheres so that images that are visually or semantically alike are placed together. This paper focuses on designing such a navigation system for image browsers. This is a challenging task because arbitrary layout structure makes it difficult - if not impossible - to compute cross-similarities between images and structure coordinates, the main ingredient of traditional layouting approaches. For this reason, we resort to a recently developed machine learning technique: kernelized sorting. It is a general technique for matching pairs of objects from different domains without requiring cross-domain similarity measures and hence elegantly allows sorting images into arbitrary structures. Moreover, we extend it so that some images can be preselected for instance forming the tip of the hierarchy allowing to subsequently navigate through the search results in the lower levels in an intuitive way. Copyright 2010 ACM.

Quantifying the uncertainties in life cycle greenhouse gas emissions for UK wheat ethanol

Biofuels are increasingly promoted worldwide as a means for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transport. However, current regulatory frameworks and most academic life cycle analyses adopt a deterministic approach in determining the GHG intensities of biofuels and thus ignore the inherent risk associated with biofuel production. This study aims to develop a transparent stochastic method for evaluating UK biofuels that determines both the magnitude and uncertainty of GHG intensity on the basis of current industry practices. Using wheat ethanol as a case study, we show that the GHG intensity could span a range of 40-110 gCO2e MJ-1 when land use change (LUC) emissions and various sources of uncertainty are taken into account, as compared with a regulatory default value of 44 gCO2e MJ-1. This suggests that the current deterministic regulatory framework underestimates wheat ethanol GHG intensity and thus may not be effective in evaluating transport fuels. Uncertainties in determining the GHG intensity of UK wheat ethanol include limitations of available data at a localized scale, and significant scientific uncertainty of parameters such as soil N2O and LUC emissions. Biofuel polices should be robust enough to incorporate the currently irreducible uncertainties and flexible enough to be readily revised when better science is available. © 2013 IOP Publishing Ltd.

Decay heat in fast reactors with transuranic fuels

In this work, we performed an evaluation of decay heat power of advanced, fast spectrum, lead and molten salt-cooled reactors, with flexible conversion ratio. The decay heat power was calculated using the BGCore computer code, which explicitly tracks over 1700 isotopes in the fuel throughout its burnup and subsequent decay. In the first stage, the capability of the BGCore code to accurately predict the decay heat power was verified by performing a benchmark calculation for a typical UO2 fuel in a Pressurized Water Reactor environment against the (ANSI/ANS-5.1-2005, "Decay Heat Power in Light Water Reactors," American National Standard) standard. Very good agreement (within 5%) between the two methods was obtained. Once BGCore calculation capabilities were verified, we calculated decay power for fast reactors with different coolants and conversion ratios, for which no standard procedure is currently available. Notable differences were observed for the decay power of the advanced reactor as compared with the conventional UO2 LWR. The importance of the observed differences was demonstrated by performing a simulation of a Station Blackout transient with the RELAP5 computer code for a lead-cooled fast reactor. The simulation was performed twice: using the code-default ANS-79 decay heat curve and using the curve calculated specifically for the studied core by BGCore code. The differences in the decay heat power resulted in failure to meet maximum cladding temperature limit criteria by ∼100 °C in the latter case, while in the transient simulation with the ANS-79 decay heat curve, all safety limits were satisfied. The results of this study show that the design of new reactor safety systems must be based on decay power curves specific to each individual case in order to assure the desired performance of these systems. © 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Tolerance analysis for incident angle of volume phase holographic grating used in optical channel performance monitor

Transmission Volume Phase Holographic Grating (VPHG) is adopted as spectral element in the real-time Optical Channel Performance Monitor (OCPM), which is in dire need in the Dense Wavelength -division-multiplexing(DATDM) system. And the tolerance of incident angle, which can be fully determined by two angles: 6 and (p, is finally inferred in this paper. Commonly, the default setting is that the incident plane is perpendicular to the fringes when the incident angle is mentioned. Now the situation out of the vertical is discussed. By combining the theoretic analysis of VPHG with its use in OCPM and changing 6 and (0 precisely in the computation and experiment, the two physical quantities which can fully specify the performance of VPHG the diffraction efficiency and the resolution, are analyzed. The results show that the diffraction efficiency varies greatly with the change of 6 or (p. But from the view of the whole C-band, only the peak diffraction efficiency drifts to another wavelength. As for the resolution, it deteriorates more rapidly than diffraction efficiency with the change of (p, while more slowly with the change of theta. Only if \phi\less than or equal to+/-1degrees and alpha(B) -0.5 less than or equal to theta less than or equal to alpha(B) + 0.5, the performance of the VPHG would be good enough to be used in OCPM system.

Improvement of different source function expressions in SWAN model for the Bohai Sea

The simulating wave nearshore (SWAN) wave model has been widely used in coastal areas, lakes and estuaries. However, we found a poor agreement between modeling results and measurements in analyzing the chosen four typical cases when we used the default parameters of the source function formulas of the SWAN to make wave simulation for the Bohai Sea. Also, it was found that at the same wind process the simulated results of two wind generation expressions (Komen, Janssen) demonstrated a large difference. Further study showed that the proportionality coefficient alpha in linear growth term of wave growth source function plays an unperceived role in the process of wave development. Based on experiments and analysis, we thought that the coefficient alpha should change rather than be a constant. Therefore, the coefficient alpha changing with the variation of friction velocity U (*) was introduced into the linear growth term of wave growth source function. Four weather processes were adopted to validate the improvement in the linear growth term. The results from the improved coefficient alpha agree much better with the measurements than those from the default constant coefficient alpha. Furthermore, the large differences of results between Komen wind generation expression and Janssen wind generation expression were eliminated. We also experimented with the four weather processes to test the new white-capping mechanisms based on the cumulative steepness method. It was found that the parameters of the new white-capping mechanisms are not suitable for the Bohai Sea, but Alkyon's white-capping mechanisms can be applicable to the Bohai Sea after amendments, demonstrating that this improvement of parameter alpha can improve the simulated results of the Bohai Sea.

叠前深度偏移速度模型的建立方法研究

Seismic exploration is the main tools of exploration for petroleum. as the society needs more petroleum and the level of exploration is going up, the exploration in the area of complex geology construction is the main task in oil industry, so the seismic prestack depth migration appeared, it has good ability for complex construction imaging. Its result depends on the velocity model strongly. So for seismic prestack depth migration has become the main research area. In this thesis the difference in seismic prestack depth migration between our country and the abroad has been analyzed in system. the tomographical method with no layer velocity model, the residual curve velocity analysical method based on velocity model and the deleting method in pre-processing have been developed. In the thesis, the tomographysical method in velocity analysis is been analyzed at first. It characterized with perfection in theory and diffculity in application. This method use the picked first arrivial, compare the difference between the picked first arrival and the calculated arrival in theory velocity model, and then anti-projected the difference along the ray path to get the new velocity model. This method only has the hypothesis of high frequency, no other hypothesis. So it is very effective and has high efficiency. But this method has default still. The picking of first arrival is difficult in the prestack data. The reasons are the ratio of signal to noise is very low and many other event cross each other in prestack data. These phenomenon appear strongly in the complex geology construction area. Based on these a new tomophysical methos in velocity analysis with no layer velocity model is been developed. The aim is to solve the picking problem. It do not need picking the event time contiunely. You can picking in random depending on the reliability. This methos not only need the pick time as the routine tomographysical mehtod, but also the slope of event. In this methos we use the high slope analysis method to improve the precision of picking. In addition we also make research on the residual curve velocity analysis and find that its application is not good and the efficiency is low. The reasons is that the hypothesis is rigid and it is a local optimizing method, it can solve seismic velocity problem in the area with laterical strong velocity variation. A new method is developed to improve the precision of velocity model building . So far the pattern of seismic prestack depth migration is the same as it aborad. Before the work of velocity building the original seismic data must been corrected on a datum plane, and then to make the prestack depth migration work. As we know the successful example is in Mexico bay. It characterized with the simple surface layer construction, the pre-precessing is very simple and its precision is very high. But in our country the main seismic work is in land, the surface layer is very complex, in some area the error of pre-precessing is big, it affect the velocity building. So based on this a new method is developed to delete the per-precessing error and improve the precision of velocity model building. Our main work is, (1) developing a effective tomographical velocity building method with no layer velocity model. (2) a new high resolution slope analysis method is developed. (3) developing a global optimized residual curve velocity buliding method based on velocity model. (4) a effective method of deleting the pre-precessing error is developing. All the method as listed above has been ceritified by the theorical calculation and the actual seismic data.

运动与重定向时物-我、物-物空间表征的使用

Eight experiments tested how object array structure and learning location influenced the establishing and utilization of self-to-object and object-to-object spatial representations in locomotion and reorientation. In Experiment 1 to 4, participants learned either at the periphery of or amidst regular or irregular object array, and then pointed to objects while blindfolded in three conditions: before turning (baseline), after rotating 240 degrees (updating), and after disorientation (disorientation). In Experiment 5 to 8, participants received instruction to keep track of self-to-object or object-to-object spatial representations before rotation. In each condition, the configuration error, which means the standard deviation of the means per target object of the signed pointing errors, was calculated as the index of the fidelity of representation used in each condition. Results indicate that participants form both self-to-object and object-to-object spatial representations after learning an object-array. Object-array structure influences the selection of representation during updating. By default, object-to-object spatial representation is updated when people learned the regular object-array structure, and self-to-object spatial representation is updated when people learned the irregular object array. But people could also update the other representation when they are required to do so. The fidelity of representations will confine this kind of “switch”. People could only “switch” from a low fidelity representation to a high fidelity representation or between two representations of similar fidelity. They couldn’t “switch” from a high fidelity representation to a low fidelity representation. Leaning location might influence the fidelity of representations. When people learned at the periphery of object array, they could acquire both self-to-object and object-to-object spatial representations of high fidelity. But when people learned amidst the object array, they could only acquire self-to-object spatial representation of high fidelity, and the fidelity of object-to-object spatial representation was low.

Variation of modal parameters of pile-supported structures in seismically liquefiable soils.

This paper presents experimental results that aimed to investigate the effects of soil liquefaction on the modal parameters (i.e. frequency and damping ratio) of pile-supported structures. The tests were carried out using the shaking table facility of the Bristol Laboratory for Advanced Dynamics Engineering (BLADE) at the University of Bristol (UK) whereby four pile-supported structures (two single piles and two pile groups) with and without superstructure mass were tested. The experimental investigation aimed to monitor the variation in natural frequency and damping of the four physical models at different degrees of excess pore water pressure generation and in full-liquefaction condition. The experimental results showed that the natural frequency of pile-supported structures may decrease considerably owing to the loss of lateral support offered by the soil to the pile. On the other hand, the damping ratio of structure may increase to values in excess of 20%. These findings have important design consequences: (a) for low-period structures, substantial reduction of spectral acceleration is expected; (b) during and after liquefaction, the response of the system may be dictated by the interactions of multiple loadings, that is, horizontal, axial and overturning moment, which were negligible prior to liquefaction; and (c) with the onset of liquefaction due to increased flexibility of pile-supported structure, larger spectral displacement may be expected, which in turn may enhance Pdelta effects and consequently amplification of overturning moment. Practical implications for pile design are discussed.