A Comparison of Bayesian and Sampling Theory Inferences in a Probit Model

HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.

An Economic Analysis of the Legal Concept of Trustees' Power of Investment

Authorised trustee status is a legal concept which has economic implications; one of the major implications is that it assists in the direction of investment funds into particular securities and areas of the economy. The concept of authorised trustee status, while attempting to achieve specific outcomes for the beneficiaries of trusts cannot be relied upon to secure these results. Economic analysis of the role of the trustee maintains that this role is one of portfolio manager; a role which is complex but which is explicable in terms of definable procedures and practices. The role of trustee as portfolio manager is one which requires greater financial knowledge than can be assumed is possessed by all trustees. The trustee as portfolio manager is required to maintain a review of decisions make under powers to invest trust assets. A solution to the problem of authorised trustee status is proposed. The solution takes two parts: the first is the adoption of the prudent person approach but with the codification of duties of the trustee and the explicit listing of the factors that a trustee should consider in using the investment powers. The second part of the proposed solution is to link the investment powers of trustees to the best practice features of securities advisers who are now licensed by a regulatory body, the Australian Securities and Investment Commission.

Children and economic development: Family size, gender preferences and human capital formation - theory and Indian cases

In the light of Gary Becker's economic theory of the family, considers how economic cost and benefit factors can influence the size of families that parents decide to have. Some support for the importance of such factors is found from results of structured interviews with wives in Kondh-dominated villages in western Orissa. These results are at variance with the hypothesis of Malthus about population growth. Factors that may alter the optimal family size as development proceeds are discussed. It is found in our sampling that, on the whole, there is a preference for daughters rather than sons although this is not as strong in the Kondh-dominated villages as in poor villages in the Santal tribal belt of West Bengal. While in the Kondh-dominated villages some discrimination in access to education in favour of boys compared to girls is present, little such or no such discrimination occurs in relation to access to food and medical attention. In the villages surveyed in the West Bengal Santal tribal belt, discrimination in favour of boys is more pronounced than in the Kondh-dominated area in Orissa. While economic considerations help to explain gender discrimination between boys and girls, we find that social and cultural factors also play a major role. Parents in a similar economic situation seem to display substantially different patterns of gender discrimination between children depending on their social and cultural content. It seems that the extent to which economic theories of the family explain family preferences and behaviour depend significantly on the social and cultural context in which they are to be applied.

The influence of erbium:yttrium-aluminum-garnet laser ablation with variable pulse width on morphology and microleakage of composite restorations

The objective of this study was to evaluate the influence of various pulse widths with different energy parameters of erbium:yttrium-aluminum-garnet (Er:YAG) laser (2.94 mu m) on the morphology and microleakage of cavities restored with composite resin. Identically sized class V cavities were prepared on the buccal surfaces of 54 bovine teeth by high-speed drill (n = 6, control, group 1) and prepared by Er:YAG laser (Fidelis 320A, Fotona, Slovenia) with irradiation parameters of 350 mJ/ 4 Hz or 400 mJ/2 Hz and pulse width: group 2, very short pulse (VSP); group 3, short pulse (SP); group 4, long pulse (LP); group 5, very long pulse (VLP). All cavities were filled with composite resin (Z-250-3 M), stored at 37A degrees C in distilled water, polished after 24 h, and thermally stressed (700 cycles/5-55A degrees C). The teeth were impermeabilized, immersed in 50% silver nitrate solution for 8 h, sectioned longitudinally, and exposed to Photoflood light for 10 min to reveal the stain. The leakage was evaluated under stereomicroscope by three different examiners, in a double-blind fashion, and scored (0-3). The results were analyzed by Kruskal-Wallis test (P > 0.05) and showed that there was no significant differences between the groups tested. Under scanning electron microscopy (SEM) the morphology of the cavities prepared by laser showed irregular enamel margins and dentin internal walls, and a more conservative pattern than that of conventional cavities. The different power settings and pulse widths of Er:YAG laser in cavity preparation had no influence on microleakage of composite resin restorations.

Laser Phototherapy as Topical Prophylaxis Against Head and Neck Cancer Radiotherapy-Induced Oral Mucositis: Comparison Between Low and High/Low Power Lasers

Background and Objective: Oral mucositis is a dose-limiting and painful side effect of radiotherapy (RT) and/or chemotherapy in cancer patients. The purpose of the present study was to analyze the effect of different protocols of laser phototherapy (LPT) on the grade of mucositis and degree of pain in patients under RT. Patients and Methods: Thirty-nine patients were divided into three groups: G1, where the irradiations were done three times a week using low power laser; G2, where combined high and low power lasers were used three time a week; and G3, where patients received low power laser irradiation once a week. The low power LPT was done using an InGaAlP laser (660 nm/40 mW/6 J cm(-2)/0.24 J per point). In the combined protocol, the high power LPT was done using a GaAlAs laser (808 nm, 1 W/cm(2)). Oral mucositis was assessed at each LPT session in accordance to the oral-mucositis scale of the National Institute of the Cancer-Common Toxicity criteria (NIC-CTC). The patient self-assessed pain was measured by means of the visual analogue scale. Results: All protocols of LPT led to the maintenance of oral mucositis scores in the same levels until the last RT session. Moreover, LPT three times a week also maintained the pain levels. However, the patients submitted to the once a week LPT had significant pain increase; and the association of low/high LPT led to increased healing time. Conclusions: These findings are desired when dealing with oncologic patients under RT avoiding unplanned radiation treatment breaks and additional hospital costs. Lasers Surg.Med. 41:264-270,2009. (C) 2009Wiley-Liss, Inc.