Understanding the Continual Reassessment Method for Dose Finding Studies: An Overview for Non-Statisticians

The Continual Reassessment Method (CRM) has gained popularity since its proposal by O’Quigley et al. [1]. Many variations have been published and discussed in the statistical literature, but there has been little attention to making the design considerations accessible to non-statisticians. As a result, some clinicians or reviewers of clinical trials tend to be wary of the CRM due to safety concerns. This paper presents the CRM in a non-technical way, describing the original CRM with some of its modified versions. It also describes the specifications that define a CRM design, along with two simulated examples of CRMs for illustration.

A SURVEY OF THE LIKELIHOOD APPROACH TO BIOEQUIVALENCE TRIALS

Bioequivalence trials are abbreviated clinical trials whereby a generic drug or new formulation is evaluated to determine if it is "equivalent" to a corresponding previously approved brand-name drug or formulation. In this manuscript, we survey the process of testing bioequivalence and advocate the likelihood paradigm for representing the resulting data as evidence. We emphasize the unique conflicts between hypothesis testing and confidence intervals in this area - which we believe are indicative of the existence of the systemic defects in the frequentist approach - that the likelihood paradigm avoids. We suggest the direct use of profile likelihoods for evaluating bioequivalence and examine the main properties of profile likelihoods and estimated likelihoods under simulation. This simulation study shows that profile likelihoods are a reasonable alternative to the (unknown) true likelihood for a range of parameters commensurate with bioequivalence research. Our study also shows that the standard methods in the current practice of bioequivalence trials offers only weak evidence from the evidential point of view.

Placebo-controlled trials of Chinese herbal medicine and conventional medicine - comparative study

BACKGROUND: Chinese herbal medicine (CHM) is increasingly used in the West, but the evidence on its effectiveness is a matter of debate. We compared the characteristics, study quality and results of clinical trials of CHM and conventional medicine. METHODS: Comparative study of placebo-controlled trials of CHM and conventional medicine. Eleven bibliographic databases and searches by hand of 48 Chinese-language journals. Conventional medicine trials matched for condition and type of outcome were randomly selected from the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register (issue 1, 2003). Trials described as double-blind, with adequate generation of allocation sequence and adequate concealment of allocation, were assumed to be of high quality. Data were analysed using funnel plots and multivariable meta-regression models. RESULTS: 136 CHM trials (119 published in Chinese, 17 published in English) and 136 matched conventional medicine trials (125 published in English) were analysed. The quality of Chinese-language CHM trials tended to be lower than that of English-language CHM trials and conventional medicine trials. Three (2%) CHM trials and 10 (7%) conventional medicine trials were of high quality. In all groups, smaller trials showed more beneficial treatment effects than larger trials. CHM trials published in Chinese showed considerably larger effects than CHM trials published in English (adjusted ratio of ORs 0.29, 95% confidence intervals 0.17-0.52). CONCLUSIONS: Biases are present both in placebo-controlled trials of CHM and conventional medicine, but may be most pronounced in CHM trials published in Chinese-language journals. Only few CHM trials of adequate methodology exist and the effectiveness of CHM therefore remains poorly documented.

Quality of analgesic treatment in patients with advanced prostate cancer: do we do a better job now? The Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research (SAKK) experience

GOALS OF WORK: The aim of this study was to evaluate pain intensity and the application of the WHO guidelines for cancer pain treatment in patients with prostate cancer treated at Swiss cancer centers. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We analyzed a series of five multicenter phase II clinical trials which examined the palliative effect of different chemotherapies in patients with advanced hormone-refractory prostate carcinoma. Of 170 patients, 1,018 visits were evaluable for our purpose, including ratings of pain intensity by patients and prescribed analgesics. MAIN RESULTS: No or mild pain was indicated by patients in 36 to 55% of the visits, more than mild pain in 30 to 46%. In 21% of the visits, the WHO pain treatment criteria (treatment according to one of the three steps; oral, rectal or transdermal application of the main dose; administration on a regular schedule) were fulfilled, and the Cleeland index was positive according to all recommendations. In 6% of the visits, neither the WHO criteria were fulfilled nor was the Cleeland index positive. This indicates insufficient pain treatment not following the WHO guidelines and that the prescribed analgesics were not sufficiently potent for the rated pain intensity. CONCLUSIONS: In this selective Swiss sample, the standard of analgesic treatment is high. However, there is still scope for improvement. This cannot solely be solved by improving the knowledge of the physicians. Programs to change the patients' attitude towards cancer pain, training to improve the physicians' communication skills, and institutional changes may be promising strategies.

Full publication of results initially presented in abstracts

BACKGROUND: Abstracts of presentations at scientific meetings are usually available only in conference proceedings. If subsequent full publication of abstract results is based on the magnitude or direction of study results, publication bias may result. Publication bias, in turn, creates problems for those conducting systematic reviews or relying on the published literature for evidence. OBJECTIVES: To determine the rate at which abstract results are subsequently published in full, and the time between meeting presentation and full publication. To assess the association between study characteristics and full publication. SEARCH STRATEGY: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, The Cochrane Library, Science Citation Index, reference lists, and author files. Date of most recent search: June 2003. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included all reports that examined the subsequent full publication rate of biomedical results initially presented as abstracts or in summary form. Follow-up of abstracts had to be at least two years. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two reviewers extracted data. We calculated the weighted mean full publication rate and time to full publication. Dichotomous variables were analyzed using relative risk and random effects models. We assessed time to publication using Kaplan-Meier survival analyses. MAIN RESULTS: Combining data from 79 reports (29,729 abstracts) resulted in a weighted mean full publication rate of 44.5% (95% confidence interval (CI) 43.9 to 45.1). Survival analyses resulted in an estimated publication rate at 9 years of 52.6% for all studies, 63.1% for randomized or controlled clinical trials, and 49.3% for other types of study designs.'Positive' results defined as any 'significant' result showed an association with full publication (RR = 1.30; CI 1.14 to 1.47), as did 'positive' results defined as a result favoring the experimental treatment (RR =1.17; CI 1.02 to 1.35), and 'positive' results emanating from randomized or controlled clinical trials (RR = 1.18, CI 1.07 to 1.30).Other factors associated with full publication include oral presentation (RR = 1.28; CI 1.09 to 1.49); acceptance for meeting presentation (RR = 1.78; CI 1.50 to 2.12); randomized trial study design (RR = 1.24; CI 1.14 to 1.36); and basic research (RR = 0.79; CI 0.70 to 0.89). Higher quality of abstracts describing randomized or controlled clinical trials was also associated with full publication (RR = 1.30, CI 1.00 to 1.71). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Only 63% of results from abstracts describing randomized or controlled clinical trials are published in full. 'Positive' results were more frequently published than not 'positive' results.

Sustained virologic response and clinical outcomes in patients with chronic hepatitis C and advanced fibrosis

BACKGROUND: Clinical outcomes of chronic hepatitis C infection in patients with advanced fibrosis include liver failure, hepatocellular carcinoma, and death. OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether sustained virologic response to treatment for hepatitis C is associated with improved clinical outcomes. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: 5 hepatology units of tertiary care centers in Europe and Canada caring for patients with chronic hepatitis C treated between 1990 and 2003. PATIENTS: Consecutively treated patients with chronic hepatitis C who had biopsy-proven advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis (Ishak score, 4 to 6). MEASUREMENTS: Sustained virologic response, defined as absence of detectable hepatitis C virus RNA at 24 weeks after the end of treatment, and clinical outcomes, defined as death (liver-related or non-liver-related), liver failure, and hepatocellular carcinoma. RESULTS: Of 479 patients, 29.6% had sustained virologic response and 70.3% did not. Median follow-up was 2.1 years (interquartile range, 0.8 to 4.9 years). Four patients with and 83 without sustained virologic response had at least 1 outcome event. Sustained virologic response was associated with a statistically significant reduction in the hazard of events (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.21 [95% CI, 0.07 to 0.58]; P = 0.003). The effect was largely attributable to a reduction in liver failure, which developed in no patients with and 42 patients without sustained virologic response (5-year occurrence, 0% vs. 13.3% [CI, 8.4% to 18.2%]; unadjusted hazard ratio, 0.03 [CI, 0.00 to 0.91]). LIMITATIONS: Because few events occurred in the sustained virologic response group, the study had limited ability to detect differences between groups in individual outcomes. In addition, the study was retrospective; selection and survival biases may therefore influence estimates of effect. CONCLUSION: Sustained virologic response to treatment is associated with improved clinical outcomes, mainly prevention of liver failure, in patients with chronic hepatitis C and advanced fibrosis.

Comparison of tendency-oriented perimetry and dynamic strategy in octopus perimetry as a screening tool in a clinical setting: a prospective study

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to compare the results of tendency-oriented perimetry (TOP) and a dynamic strategy in octopus perimetry as screening methods in clinical practice. DESIGN: A prospective single centre observational case series was performed. PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS: In a newly opened general ophthalmologic practice 89 consecutive patients (171 eyes) with a clinical indication for octopus static perimetry testing (ocular hypertension or suspicious optic nerve cupping) were examined prospectively with TOP and a dynamic strategy. The visual fields were graded by 3 masked observers as normal, borderline or abnormal without any further clinical information. RESULTS: 83% eyes showed the same result for both strategies. In 14% there was a small difference (with one visual field being abnormal or normal, the other being borderline). In only 2.9% of the eyes (5 cases) was there a contradictory result. In 4 out of 5 cases the dynamic visual field was abnormal and TOP was normal. 4 of these cases came back for a second examination. In all 4 the follow-up examination showed a normal second dynamic visual field. CONCLUSIONS: Octopus static perimetry using a TOP strategy is a fast, patient-friendly and very reliable screening tool for the general ophthalmological practice. We found no false-negative results in our series.

Radiological anatomy of the obturator nerve and its articular branches: basis to develop a method of radiofrequency denervation for hip joint pain

OBJECTIVE: A previous study of radiofrequency neurotomy of the articular branches of the obturator nerve for hip joint pain produced modest results. Based on an anatomical and radiological study, we sought to define a potentially more effective radiofrequency method. DESIGN: Ten cadavers were studied, four of them bilaterally. The obturator nerve and its articular branches were marked by wires. Their radiological relationship to the bone structures on fluoroscopy was imaged and analyzed. A magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) study was undertaken on 20 patients to determine the structures that would be encountered by the radiofrequency electrode during different possible percutaneous approaches. RESULTS: The articular branches of the obturator nerve vary in location over a wide area. The previously described method of denervating the hip joint did not take this variation into account. Moreover, it approached the nerves perpendicularly. Because optimal coagulation requires electrodes to lie parallel to the nerves, a perpendicular approach probably produced only a minimal lesion. In addition, MRI demonstrated that a perpendicular approach is likely to puncture femoral vessels. Vessel puncture can be avoided if an oblique pass is used. Such an approach minimizes the angle between the target nerves and the electrode, and increases the likelihood of the nerve being captured by the lesion made. Multiple lesions need to be made in order to accommodate the variability in location of the articular nerves. CONCLUSIONS: The method that we described has the potential to produce complete and reliable nerve coagulation. Moreover, it minimizes the risk of penetrating the great vessels. The efficacy of this approach should be tested in clinical trials.

Gene and stem cell therapy in peripheral arterial occlusive disease

Peripheral arterial occlusive disease (PAOD) is a manifestation of systemic atherosclerosis strongly associated with a high risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. In a considerable proportion of patients with PAOD, revascularization either by endovascular means or by open surgery combined with best possible risk factor modification does not achieve limb salvage or relief of ischaemic rest pain. As a consequence, novel therapeutic strategies have been developed over the last two decades aiming to promote neovascularization and remodelling of collaterals. Gene and stem cell therapy are the main directions for clinical investigation concepts. For both, preclinical studies have shown promising results using a wide variety of genes encoding for growth factors and populations of adult stem cells, respectively. As a consequence, clinical trials have been performed applying gene and stem cell-based concepts. However, it has become apparent that a straightforward translation into humans is not possible. While several trials reported relief of symptoms and functional improvement, other trials did not confirm this early promise of efficacy. Ongoing clinical trials with an improved study design are needed to confirm the potential that gene and cell therapy may have and to prevent the gaps in our scientific knowledge that will jeopardize the establishment of angiogenic therapy as an additional medical treatment of PAOD. This review summarizes the experimental background and presents the current status of clinical applications and future perspectives of the therapeutic use of gene and cell therapy strategies for PAOD.

Combined approach to hepatocellular carcinoma: a new treatment concept for nonresectable disease

Depending on tumor burden, hepatic function and patients' performance status, hepatocellular carcinoma is treated by surgery, local procedures, systemic therapy or palliation. The majority of patients are diagnosed at a stage where local therapy is the treatment of choice. Recently, the multikinase inhibitor sorafenib was found to improve the survival of patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma and conserved liver function. In this manuscript, we summarize the experimental evidence supporting the combination of a systemic targeted therapy with a local therapy. We also discuss the pros and cons of different schedules of combining such treatments. We conclude that there is enough of a theoretical argument to design clinical trials testing this strategy.

The effects of excluding patients from the analysis in randomised controlled trials: meta-epidemiological study

OBJECTIVE: To examine whether excluding patients from the analysis of randomised trials are associated with biased estimates of treatment effects and higher heterogeneity between trials. DESIGN: Meta-epidemiological study based on a collection of meta-analyses of randomised trials. DATA SOURCES: 14 meta-analyses including 167 trials that compared therapeutic interventions with placebo or non-intervention control in patients with osteoarthritis of the hip or knee and used patient reported pain as an outcome. METHODS: Effect sizes were calculated from differences in means of pain intensity between groups at the end of follow-up, divided by the pooled standard deviation. Trials were combined by using random effects meta-analysis. Estimates of treatment effects were compared between trials with and trials without exclusions from the analysis, and the impact of restricting meta-analyses to trials without exclusions was assessed. RESULTS: 39 trials (23%) had included all patients in the analysis. In 128 trials (77%) some patients were excluded from the analysis. Effect sizes from trials with exclusions tended to be more beneficial than those from trials without exclusions (difference -0.13, 95% confidence interval -0.29 to 0.04). However, estimates of bias between individual meta-analyses varied considerably (tau(2)=0.07). Tests of interaction between exclusions from the analysis and estimates of treatment effects were positive in five meta-analyses. Stratified analyses indicated that differences in effect sizes between trials with and trials without exclusions were more pronounced in meta-analyses with high between trial heterogeneity, in meta-analyses with large estimated treatment benefits, and in meta-analyses of complementary medicine. Restriction of meta-analyses to trials without exclusions resulted in smaller estimated treatment benefits, larger P values, and considerable decreases in between trial heterogeneity. CONCLUSION: Excluding patients from the analysis in randomised trials often results in biased estimates of treatment effects, but the extent and direction of bias is unpredictable. Results from intention to treat analyses should always be described in reports of randomised trials. In systematic reviews, the influence of exclusions from the analysis on estimated treatment effects should routinely be assessed.

No surgical innovation without evaluation: the IDEAL recommendations

Surgery and other invasive therapies are complex interventions, the assessment of which is challenged by factors that depend on operator, team, and setting, such as learning curves, quality variations, and perception of equipoise. We propose recommendations for the assessment of surgery based on a five-stage description of the surgical development process. We also encourage the widespread use of prospective databases and registries. Reports of new techniques should be registered as a professional duty, anonymously if necessary when outcomes are adverse. Case series studies should be replaced by prospective development studies for early technical modifications and by prospective research databases for later pre-trial evaluation. Protocols for these studies should be registered publicly. Statistical process control techniques can be useful in both early and late assessment. Randomised trials should be used whenever possible to investigate efficacy, but adequate pre-trial data are essential to allow power calculations, clarify the definition and indications of the intervention, and develop quality measures. Difficulties in doing randomised clinical trials should be addressed by measures to evaluate learning curves and alleviate equipoise problems. Alternative prospective designs, such as interrupted time series studies, should be used when randomised trials are not feasible. Established procedures should be monitored with prospective databases to analyse outcome variations and to identify late and rare events. Achievement of improved design, conduct, and reporting of surgical research will need concerted action by editors, funders of health care and research, regulatory bodies, and professional societies.

Adjuvant breast cancer treatment and cognitive function: current knowledge and research directions

Evidence is mounting that potentially curative systemic adjuvant therapy for early-stage breast cancer may result in cognitive impairment. Five published studies have investigated cognitive function in this setting, and the consistent results of all five studies suggest an adverse effect of adjuvant chemotherapy. These studies are reviewed with particular attention to their methodologic limitations. For example, all five studies used cross-sectional designs, none controlled for possible confounding hormonal factors, and three examined patients who had not received a uniform chemotherapy regimen. The potential roles of chemotherapy-induced menopause and of adjuvant hormonal therapy in cognitive impairment are also discussed. Priorities for future research include confirmation of an effect of adjuvant chemotherapy in a study with a longitudinal design, closer examination of the potential contribution of hormonal factors, and similar studies on the effect of adjuvant therapy on cognitive function in other cancer types. If an effect of systemic adjuvant therapy on cognitive function is confirmed, such an effect will have implications for informed consent. It may also result in incorporation of objective measures of cognition in clinical trials of adjuvant therapy and in the investigation of preventive interventions that might minimize the impact of cognitive dysfunction after cancer treatment.

Long-term outcomes of biodegradable polymer versus durable polymer drug-eluting stents in patients with diabetes a pooled analysis of individual patient data from 3 randomized trials

BACKGROUND There is ongoing debate on the optimal drug-eluting stent (DES) in diabetic patients with coronary artery disease. Biodegradable polymer drug-eluting stents (BP-DES) may potentially improve clinical outcomes in these high-risk patients. We sought to compare long-term outcomes in patients with diabetes treated with biodegradable polymer DES vs. durable polymer sirolimus-eluting stents (SES). METHODS We pooled individual patient-level data from 3 randomized clinical trials (ISAR-TEST 3, ISAR-TEST 4 and LEADERS) comparing biodegradable polymer DES with durable polymer SES. Clinical outcomes out to 4years were assessed. The primary end point was the composite of cardiac death, myocardial infarction and target-lesion revascularization. Secondary end points were target lesion revascularization and definite or probable stent thrombosis. RESULTS Of 1094 patients with diabetes included in the present analysis, 657 received biodegradable polymer DES and 437 durable polymer SES. At 4years, the incidence of the primary end point was similar with BP-DES versus SES (hazard ratio=0.95, 95% CI=0.74-1.21, P=0.67). Target lesion revascularization was also comparable between the groups (hazard ratio=0.89, 95% CI=0.65-1.22, P=0.47). Definite or probable stent thrombosis was significantly reduced among patients treated with BP-DES (hazard ratio=0.52, 95% CI=0.28-0.96, P=0.04), a difference driven by significantly lower stent thrombosis rates with BP-DES between 1 and 4years (hazard ratio=0.15, 95% CI=0.03-0.70, P=0.02). CONCLUSIONS In patients with diabetes, biodegradable polymer DES, compared to durable polymer SES, were associated with comparable overall clinical outcomes during follow-up to 4years. Rates of stent thrombosis were significantly lower with BP-DES.