Air quality and public health impacts of UK airports. Part I: Emissions

The potential adverse human health and climate impacts of emissions from UK airports have become a significant political issue, yet the emissions, air quality impacts and health impacts attributable to UK airports remain largely unstudied. We produce an inventory of UK airport emissions - including aircraft landing and takeoff (LTO) operations and airside support equipment - with uncertainties quantified. The airports studied account for more than 95% of UK air passengers in 2005. We estimate that in 2005, UK airports emitted 10.2 Gg [-23 to +29%] of NOx, 0.73 Gg [-29 to +32%] of SO2, 11.7 Gg [-42 to +77%] of CO, 1.8 Gg [-59 to +155%] of HC, 2.4 Tg [-13 to +12%] of CO2, and 0.31 Gg [-36 to +45%] of PM2.5. This translates to 2.5 Tg [-12 to +12%] CO2-eq using Global Warming Potentials for a 100-year time horizon. Uncertainty estimates were based on analysis of data from aircraft emissions measurement campaigns and analyses of aircraft operations.The First-Order Approximation (FOA3) - currently the standard approach used to estimate particulate matter emissions from aircraft - is compared to measurements and it is shown that there are discrepancies greater than an order of magnitude for 40% of cases for both organic carbon and black carbon emissions indices. Modified methods to approximate organic carbon emissions, arising from incomplete combustion and lubrication oil, and black carbon are proposed. These alterations lead to factor 8 and a 44% increase in the annual emissions estimates of black and organic carbon particulate matter, respectively, leading to a factor 3.4 increase in total PM2.5 emissions compared to the current FOA3 methodology. Our estimates of emissions are used in Part II to quantify the air quality and health impacts of UK airports, to assess mitigation options, and to estimate the impacts of a potential London airport expansion. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

The roles of energy and material efficiency in meeting steel industry CO2 targets.

Identifying strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from steel production requires a comprehensive model of the sector but previous work has either failed to consider the whole supply chain or considered only a subset of possible abatement options. In this work, a global mass flow analysis is combined with process emissions intensities to allow forecasts of future steel sector emissions under all abatement options. Scenario analysis shows that global capacity for primary steel production is already near to a peak and that if sectoral emissions are to be reduced by 50% by 2050, the last required blast furnace will be built by 2020. Emissions reduction targets cannot be met by energy and emissions efficiency alone, but deploying material efficiency provides sufficient extra abatement potential.

A simple diesel engine air-path model to predict the cylinder charge during transients: Strategies for reducing transient emissions spikes

Simple air-path models for modern (VGT/EGR equipped) diesel engines are in common use, and have been reported in the literature. This paper addresses some of the shortcomings of control-oriented models to allow better prediction of the cylinder charge properties. A fast response CO2 analyzer is used to validate the model by comparing the recorded and predicted CO2 concentrations in both the intake port and exhaust manifold of one of the cylinders. Data showing the recorded NOx emissions and exhaust gas opacity during a step change in engine load illustrate the spikes in both NOx and smoke seen during transient conditions. The predicted cylinder charge properties from the model are examined and compared with the measured NOx and opacity. Together, the emissions data and charge properties paint a consistent picture of the phenomena occurring during the transient. Alternative strategies for the fueling and cylinder charge during these load transients are investigated and discussed. Experimental results are presented showing that spikes in both NOx and smoke can be avoided at the expense of some loss in torque response. Even if the torque response must be maintained, it is demonstrated that it is still possible to eliminate spikes in NOx emissions for the transient situation being examined. Copyright © 2006 SAE International.

Global carbon dioxide emissions from inland waters

Carbon dioxide (CO2) transfer from inland waters to the atmosphere, known as CO2 evasion, is a component of the global carbon cycle. Global estimates of CO2 evasion have been hampered, however, by the lack of a framework for estimating the inland water surface area and gas transfer velocity and by the absence of a global CO2 database. Here we report regional variations in global inland water surface area, dissolved CO2 and gas transfer velocity. We obtain global CO2 evasion rates of 1.8petagrams of carbon (Pg C) per year from streams and rivers and 0.32Pg Cyr-1 from lakes and reservoirs, where the upper and lower limits are respectively the 5th and 95th confidence interval percentiles. The resulting global evasion rate of 2.1 Pg Cyr-1 is higher than previous estimates owing to a larger stream and river evasion rate. Our analysis predicts global hotspots in stream and river evasion, with about 70 per cent of the flux occurring over just 20 per cent of the land surface. The source of inland water CO2 is still not known with certainty and new studies are needed to research the mechanisms controlling CO2 evasion globally. © 2013 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

Attribution of Atmospheric Sulfur Dioxide over the English Channel to Dimethylsulfide and Changing Ship Emissions

Atmospheric sulfur dioxide (SO2) was measured continuously from the Penlee Point Atmospheric Observatory(PPAO) near Plymouth, United Kingdom between May 2014 and November 2015. This coastal site is exposed to marine air across a wide wind sector. The predominant southwesterly winds carry relatively clean background Atlantic air. In contrast, air from the southeast is heavily influenced by exhaust plumes from ships in the English Channel as well as near the Plymouth Sound. New International Maritime Organization (IMO) regulation came into force in January 2015 to reduce sulfur emissions tenfold in Sulfur Emission Control Areas such as the English Channel. Our observations suggest a three-fold reduction from 2014 to 2015 in ship-emitted SO2 from that direction. Apparent fuel sulfur content calculated from coincidental SO2 and carbon dioxide (CO2) peaks from local ship plum es show a high level of compliance to the IMO regulation (> 95 %) in both years. Dimethylsulfide (DMS) is an important source of atmospheric SO2 even in this semi-polluted region. The relative contribution of DMS oxidation to the SO2 burden over the English Channel increased from ~ 1/3 in 2014 to ~ 1/2 in 2015 due to the reduction in ship sulfur emissions. Our diel analysis suggests that SO2 is removed from the marine atmospheric boundary layer in about half a day, with dry deposition to the ocean accounting for a quarter of the total loss.

Absolute single and multiple charge exchange cross sections for highly charged C, O, and Ne ions on H2O, CO, and CO2

Reported herein are measured absolute single, double, and triple charge exchange (CE) cross sections for the highly charged ions (HCIs) Cq+ (q=5,6), Oq+ (q=6,7,8), and Neq+ (q=7,8) colliding with the molecular species H2O, CO, and CO2. Present data can be applied to interpreting observations of x-ray emissions from comets as they interact with the solar wind. As such, the ion impact energies of 7.0q keV (1.62–3.06 keV/amu) are representative of the fast solar wind, and data at 1.5q keV for O6+ (0.56 keV/amu) on CO and CO2 and 3.5q keV for O5+ (1.09 keV/amu) on CO provide checks of the energy dependence of the cross sections at intermediate and typical slow solar wind velocities. The HCIs are generated within a 14 GHz electron cyclotron resonance ion source. Absolute CE measurements are made using a retarding potential energy analyzer, with measurement of the target gas cell pressure and incident and final ion currents. Trends in the cross sections are discussed in light of the classical overbarrier model (OBM), extended OBM, and with recent results of the classical trajectory Monte Carlo theory.

Food miles or carbon emissions? Exploring labeling preference for food transport footprint with a stated choice study

The ecological footprint of food transport can be communicated using carbon dioxide emissions (CO2 label) or by providing information about both the length of time and the mileage travelled (food miles label). We use stated choice data to estimate conventional unobserved taste heterogeneity models and extend them to a specification that also addresses attribute nonattendance. The implied posterior distributions of the marginal willingness to pay values are compared graphically and are used in validation regressions. We find strong bimodality of taste distribution as the emerging feature, with different groups of subjects having low and high valuations for these labels. The best fitting model shows that CO2 and food miles valuations are much correlated. CO2 valuations can be high even for those respondents expressing low valuations for food miles. However, the reverse is not true. Taken together, the results suggest that consumers tend to value the CO2 label at least as much and sometimes more than the food miles label.

Characterisation of gas and particle emissions from wildfires

Os incêndios florestais são uma importante fonte de emissão de compostos gasosos e de aerossóis. Em Portugal, onde a maioria dos incêndios ocorre no norte e centro do país, os incêndios destroem todos os anos milhares de hectares, com importantes perdas em termos económicos, de vidas humanas e qualidade ambiental. As emissões podem alterar consideravelmente a química da atmosfera, degradar a qualidade do ar e alterar o clima. Contudo, a informação sobre as caraterísticas das emissões dos incêndios florestais nos países do Mediterrâneo é limitada. Tanto a nível nacional como internacional, existe um interesse crescente na elaboração de inventários de emissões e de regulamentos sobre as emissões de carbono para a atmosfera. Do ponto de vista atmosférico da monitorização atmosférica, os incêndios são considerados um desafio, dada a sua variabilidade temporal e espacial, sendo de esperar um aumento da sua frequência, dimensão e severidade, e também porque as estimativas de emissões dependem das caraterísticas dos biocombustíveis e da fase de combustão. O objetivo deste estudo foi quantificar e caraterizar as emissões de gases e aerossóis de alguns dos mais representativos incêndios florestais que ocorreram no centro de Portugal nos verões de 2009 e de 2010. Efetuou-se a colheita de amostras de gases e de duas frações de partículas (PM2.5 e PM2.5-10) nas plumas de fumo em sacos Tedlar e em filtros de quartzo acoplados a um amostrador de elevado volume, respetivamente. Os hidrocarbonetos totais (THC) e óxidos de carbono (CO e CO2) nas amostras gasosas foram analisados em instrumentos automáticos de ionização de chama e detetores não dispersivos de infravermelhos, respetivamente. Para algumas amostras, foram também quantificados alguns compostos de carbonilo após reamostragem do gás dos sacos Tedlar em cartuchos de sílica gel revestidos com 2,4-dinitrofenilhidrazina (DNPH), seguida de análise por cromatografia líquida de alta resolução. Nas partículas, analisou-se o carbono orgânico e elementar (técnica termo-óptica), iões solúveis em água (cromatografia iónica) e elementos (espectrometria de massa com plasma acoplado por indução ou análise instrumental por ativação com neutrões). A especiação orgânica foi obtida por cromatografia gasosa acoplada a espectrometria de massa após extração com recurso a vários solventes e separação dos extratos orgânicos em diversas classes de diferentes polaridades através do fracionamento com sílica gel. Os fatores de emissão do CO e do CO2 situaram-se nas gamas 52-482 e 822-1690 g kg-1 (base seca), mostrando, respetivamente, correlação negativa e positiva com a eficiência de combustão. Os fatores de emissão dos THC apresentaram valores mais elevados durante a fase de combustão latente sem chama, oscilando entre 0.33 e 334 g kg-1 (base seca). O composto orgânico volátil oxigenado mais abundante foi o acetaldeído com fatores de emissão que variaram desde 1.0 até 3.2 g kg-1 (base seca), seguido pelo formaldeído e o propionaldeído. Observou-se que as emissões destes compostos são promovidas durante a fase de combustão latente sem chama. Os fatores de emissão de PM2.5 e PM10 registaram valores entre 0.50-68 e 0.86-72 g kg-1 (base seca), respetivamente. A emissão de partículas finas e grosseiras é também promovida em condições de combustão lenta. As PM2.5 representaram cerca de 90% da massa de partículas PM10. A fração carbonosa das partículas amostradas em qualquer dos incêndios foi claramente dominada pelo carbono orgânico. Foi obtida uma ampla gama de rácios entre o carbono orgânico e o carbono elementar, dependendo das condições de combustão. Contudo, todos os rácios refletiram uma maior proporção de carbono orgânico em relação ao carbono elementar, típica das emissões de queima de biomassa. Os iões solúveis em água obtidos nas partículas da pluma de fumo contribuíram com valores até 3.9% da massa de partículas PM2.5 e 2.8% da massa de partículas de PM2.5-10. O potássio contribuiu com valores até 15 g mg-1 PM2.5 e 22 g mg-1 PM2.5-10, embora em massa absoluta estivesse maioritariamente presente nas partículas finas. Os rácios entre potássio e carbono elementar e entre potássio e carbono orgânico obtidos nas partículas da pluma de fumo enquadram-se na gama de valores relatados na literatura para emissões de queima de biomassa. Os elementos detetados nas amostras representaram, em média, valores até 1.2% e 12% da massa de PM2.5 e PM2.5-10, respetivamente. Partículas resultantes de uma combustão mais completa (valores elevados de CO2 e baixos de CO) foram caraterizadas por um elevado teor de constituintes inorgânicos e um menor conteúdo de matéria orgânica. Observou-se que a matéria orgânica particulada é composta principalmente por componentes fenólicos e produtos derivados, séries de compostos homólogos (alcanos, alcenos, ácidos alcanóicos e alcanóis), açúcares, biomarcadores esteróides e terpenóides, e hidrocarbonetos aromáticos policíclicos. O reteno, um biomarcador das emissões da queima de coníferas, foi o hidrocarboneto aromático dominante nas amostras das plumas de fumo amostradas durante a campanha que decorreu em 2009, devido ao predomínio de amostras colhidas em incêndios em florestas de pinheiros. O principal açúcar anidro, e sempre um dos compostos mais abundantes, foi o levoglucosano. O rácio levoglucosano/OC obtido nas partículas das plumas de fumo, em média, registaram valores desde 5.8 a 23 mg g-1 OC. Os rácios levoglucosano/manosano e levoglucosano/(manosano+galactosano) revelaram o predomínio de amostras provenientes da queima de coníferas. Tendo em conta que a estimativa das emissões dos incêndios florestais requer um conhecimento de fatores de emissão apropriados para cada biocombustível, a base de dados abrangente obtida neste estudo é potencialmente útil para atualizar os inventários de emissões. Tem vindo a ser observado que a fase de combustão latente sem chama, a qual pode ocorrer simultaneamente com a fase de chama e durar várias horas ou dias, pode contribuir para uma quantidade considerável de poluentes atmosféricos, pelo que os fatores de emissão correspondentes devem ser considerados no cálculo das emissões globais de incêndios florestais. Devido à falta de informação detalhada sobre perfis químicos de emissão, a base de dados obtida neste estudo pode também ser útil para a aplicação de modelos no recetor no sul da Europa.

Comparative study of amine solutions used in CO2 absorption/desorption cycles

Trabalho Final de Mestrado para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Química

European Union emissions trading scheme impact on the Spanish electricity price during phase II and phase III implementation

The European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is a cornerstone of the European Union's policy to combat climate change and its key tool for reducing industrial greenhouse gas emissions cost-effectively. The purpose of the present work is to evaluate the influence of CO2 opportunity cost on the Spanish wholesale electricity price. Our sample includes all Phase II of the EU ETS and the first year of Phase III implementation, from January 2008 to December 2013. A vector error correction model (VECM) is applied to estimate not only long-run equilibrium relations, but also short-run interactions between the electricity price and the fuel (natural gas and coal) and carbon prices. The four commodities prices are modeled as joint endogenous variables with air temperature and renewable energy as exogenous variables. We found a long-run relationship (cointegration) between electricity price, carbon price, and fuel prices. By estimating the dynamic pass-through of carbon price into electricity price for different periods of our sample, it is possible to observe the weakening of the link between carbon and electricity prices as a result from the collapse on CO2 prices, therefore compromising the efficacy of the system to reach proposed environmental goals. This conclusion is in line with the need to shape new policies within the framework of the EU ETS that prevent excessive low prices for carbon over extended periods of time.

Gas emissions on rice culture and its importance on air quality

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia do Ambiente Perfil Gestão de Sistemas Ambientais

Modelling of Ultraviolet and Vissible Emissions in Comets

Comets are the spectacular objects in the night sky since the dawn of mankind. Due to their giant apparitions and enigmatic behavior, followed by coincidental calamities, they were termed as notorious and called as `bad omens'. With a systematic study of these objects modern scienti c community understood that these objects are part of our solar system. Comets are believed to be remnant bodies of at the end of evolution of solar system and possess the material of solar nebula. Hence, these are considered as most pristine objects which can provide the information about the conditions of solar nebula. These are small bodies of our solar system, with a typical size of about a kilometer to a few tens of kilometers orbiting the Sun in highly elliptical orbits. The solid body of a comet is nucleus which is a conglomerated mixture of water ice, dust and some other gases. When the cometary nucleus advances towards the Sun in its orbit the ices sublimates and produces the gaseous envelope around the nucleus which is called coma. The gravity of cometary nucleus is very small and hence can not in uence the motion of gases in the cometary coma. Though the cometary nucleus is a few kilometers in size they can produce a transient, extensive, and expanding atmosphere with size several orders of magnitude larger in space. By ejecting gas and dust into space comets became the most active members of the solar system. The solar radiation and the solar wind in uences the motion of dust and ions and produces dust and ion tails, respectively. Comets have been observed in di erent spectral regions from rocket, ground and space borne optical instruments. The observed emission intensities are used to quantify the chemical abundances of di erent species in the comets. The study of various physical and chemical processes that govern these emissions is essential before estimating chemical abundances in the coma. Cameron band emission of CO molecule has been used to derive CO2 abundance in the comets based on the assumption that photodissociation of CO2 mainly produces these emissions. Similarly, the atomic oxygen visible emissions have been used to probe H2O in the cometary coma. The observed green ([OI] 5577 A) to red-doublet emission ([OI] 6300 and 6364 A) ratio has been used to con rm H2O as the parent species of these emissions. In this thesis a model is developed to understand the photochemistry of these emissions and applied to several comets. The model calculated emission intensities are compared with the observations done by space borne instruments like International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) and Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and also by various ground based telescopes.

Modelling of global crop production and resulting N2O emissions

Landwirtschaft spielt eine zentrale Rolle im Erdsystem. Sie trägt durch die Emission von CO2, CH4 und N2O zum Treibhauseffekt bei, kann Bodendegradation und Eutrophierung verursachen, regionale Wasserkreisläufe verändern und wird außerdem stark vom Klimawandel betroffen sein. Da all diese Prozesse durch die zugrunde liegenden Nährstoff- und Wasserflüsse eng miteinander verknüpft sind, sollten sie in einem konsistenten Modellansatz betrachtet werden. Dennoch haben Datenmangel und ungenügendes Prozessverständnis dies bis vor kurzem auf der globalen Skala verhindert. In dieser Arbeit wird die erste Version eines solchen konsistenten globalen Modellansatzes präsentiert, wobei der Schwerpunkt auf der Simulation landwirtschaftlicher Erträge und den resultierenden N2O-Emissionen liegt. Der Grund für diese Schwerpunktsetzung liegt darin, dass die korrekte Abbildung des Pflanzenwachstums eine essentielle Voraussetzung für die Simulation aller anderen Prozesse ist. Des weiteren sind aktuelle und potentielle landwirtschaftliche Erträge wichtige treibende Kräfte für Landnutzungsänderungen und werden stark vom Klimawandel betroffen sein. Den zweiten Schwerpunkt bildet die Abschätzung landwirtschaftlicher N2O-Emissionen, da bislang kein prozessbasiertes N2O-Modell auf der globalen Skala eingesetzt wurde. Als Grundlage für die globale Modellierung wurde das bestehende Agrarökosystemmodell Daycent gewählt. Neben der Schaffung der Simulationsumgebung wurden zunächst die benötigten globalen Datensätze für Bodenparameter, Klima und landwirtschaftliche Bewirtschaftung zusammengestellt. Da für Pflanzzeitpunkte bislang keine globale Datenbasis zur Verfügung steht, und diese sich mit dem Klimawandel ändern werden, wurde eine Routine zur Berechnung von Pflanzzeitpunkten entwickelt. Die Ergebnisse zeigen eine gute Übereinstimmung mit Anbaukalendern der FAO, die für einige Feldfrüchte und Länder verfügbar sind. Danach wurde das Daycent-Modell für die Ertragsberechnung von Weizen, Reis, Mais, Soja, Hirse, Hülsenfrüchten, Kartoffel, Cassava und Baumwolle parametrisiert und kalibriert. Die Simulationsergebnisse zeigen, dass Daycent die wichtigsten Klima-, Boden- und Bewirtschaftungseffekte auf die Ertragsbildung korrekt abbildet. Berechnete Länderdurchschnitte stimmen gut mit Daten der FAO überein (R2 = 0.66 für Weizen, Reis und Mais; R2 = 0.32 für Soja), und räumliche Ertragsmuster entsprechen weitgehend der beobachteten Verteilung von Feldfrüchten und subnationalen Statistiken. Vor der Modellierung landwirtschaftlicher N2O-Emissionen mit dem Daycent-Modell stand eine statistische Analyse von N2O-und NO-Emissionsmessungen aus natürlichen und landwirtschaftlichen Ökosystemen. Die als signifikant identifizierten Parameter für N2O (Düngemenge, Bodenkohlenstoffgehalt, Boden-pH, Textur, Feldfrucht, Düngersorte) und NO (Düngemenge, Bodenstickstoffgehalt, Klima) entsprechen weitgehend den Ergebnissen einer früheren Analyse. Für Emissionen aus Böden unter natürlicher Vegetation, für die es bislang keine solche statistische Untersuchung gab, haben Bodenkohlenstoffgehalt, Boden-pH, Lagerungsdichte, Drainierung und Vegetationstyp einen signifikanten Einfluss auf die N2O-Emissionen, während NO-Emissionen signifikant von Bodenkohlenstoffgehalt und Vegetationstyp abhängen. Basierend auf den daraus entwickelten statistischen Modellen betragen die globalen Emissionen aus Ackerböden 3.3 Tg N/y für N2O, und 1.4 Tg N/y für NO. Solche statistischen Modelle sind nützlich, um Abschätzungen und Unsicherheitsbereiche von N2O- und NO-Emissionen basierend auf einer Vielzahl von Messungen zu berechnen. Die Dynamik des Bodenstickstoffs, insbesondere beeinflusst durch Pflanzenwachstum, Klimawandel und Landnutzungsänderung, kann allerdings nur durch die Anwendung von prozessorientierten Modellen berücksichtigt werden. Zur Modellierung von N2O-Emissionen mit dem Daycent-Modell wurde zunächst dessen Spurengasmodul durch eine detailliertere Berechnung von Nitrifikation und Denitrifikation und die Berücksichtigung von Frost-Auftau-Emissionen weiterentwickelt. Diese überarbeitete Modellversion wurde dann an N2O-Emissionsmessungen unter verschiedenen Klimaten und Feldfrüchten getestet. Sowohl die Dynamik als auch die Gesamtsummen der N2O-Emissionen werden befriedigend abgebildet, wobei die Modelleffizienz für monatliche Mittelwerte zwischen 0.1 und 0.66 für die meisten Standorte liegt. Basierend auf der überarbeiteten Modellversion wurden die N2O-Emissionen für die zuvor parametrisierten Feldfrüchte berechnet. Emissionsraten und feldfruchtspezifische Unterschiede stimmen weitgehend mit Literaturangaben überein. Düngemittelinduzierte Emissionen, die momentan vom IPCC mit 1.25 +/- 1% der eingesetzten Düngemenge abgeschätzt werden, reichen von 0.77% (Reis) bis 2.76% (Mais). Die Summe der berechneten Emissionen aus landwirtschaftlichen Böden beträgt für die Mitte der 1990er Jahre 2.1 Tg N2O-N/y, was mit den Abschätzungen aus anderen Studien übereinstimmt.

Changes in the global sulfate burden due to perturbations in global CO2 concentrations

A large ensemble of general circulation model (GCM) integrations coupled to a fully interactive sulfur cycle scheme were run on the climateprediction.net platform to investigate the uncertainty in the climate response to sulfate aerosol and carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing. The sulfate burden within the model (and the atmosphere) depends on the balance between formation processes and deposition (wet and dry). The wet removal processes for sulfate aerosol are much faster than dry removal and so any changes in atmospheric circulation, cloud cover, and precipitation will feed back on the sulfate burden. When CO2 is doubled in the Hadley Centre Slab Ocean Model (HadSM3), global mean precipitation increased by 5%; however, the global mean sulfate burden increased by 10%. Despite the global mean increase in precipitation, there were large areas of the model showing decreases in precipitation (and cloud cover) in the Northern Hemisphere during June–August, which reduced wet deposition and allowed the sulfate burden to increase. Further experiments were also undertaken with and without doubling CO2 while including a future anthropogenic sulfur emissions scenario. Doubling CO2 further enhanced the increases in sulfate burden associated with increased anthropogenic sulfur emissions as observed in the doubled CO2-only experiment. The implications are that the climate response to doubling CO2 can influence the amount of sulfate within the atmosphere and, despite increases in global mean precipitation, may act to increase it.

Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne

Global efforts to mitigate climate change are guided by projections of future temperatures1. But the eventual equilibrium global mean temperature associated with a given stabilization level of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations remains uncertain1, 2, 3, complicating the setting of stabilization targets to avoid potentially dangerous levels of global warming4, 5, 6, 7, 8. Similar problems apply to the carbon cycle: observations currently provide only a weak constraint on the response to future emissions9, 10, 11. Here we use ensemble simulations of simple climate-carbon-cycle models constrained by observations and projections from more comprehensive models to simulate the temperature response to a broad range of carbon dioxide emission pathways. We find that the peak warming caused by a given cumulative carbon dioxide emission is better constrained than the warming response to a stabilization scenario. Furthermore, the relationship between cumulative emissions and peak warming is remarkably insensitive to the emission pathway (timing of emissions or peak emission rate). Hence policy targets based on limiting cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide are likely to be more robust to scientific uncertainty than emission-rate or concentration targets. Total anthropogenic emissions of one trillion tonnes of carbon (3.67 trillion tonnes of CO2), about half of which has already been emitted since industrialization began, results in a most likely peak carbon-dioxide-induced warming of 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures, with a 5–95% confidence interval of 1.3–3.9 °C.