Trends in research on the possible effects of climate change concerning aquatic ecosystems with special emphasis on the modelling approach

Knowledge on the expected effects of climate change on aquatic ecosystems is defined by three ways. On the one hand, long-term observation in the field serves as a basis for the possible changes; on the other hand, the experimental approach may bring valuable pieces of information to the research field. The expected effects of climate change cannot be studied by empirical approach; rather mathematical models are useful tools for this purpose. Within this study, the main findings of field observations and their implications for future were summarized; moreover, the modelling approaches were discussed in a more detailed way. Some models try to describe the variation of physical parameters in a given aquatic habitat, thus our knowledge on their biota is confined to the findings based on our present observations. Others are destined for answering special issues related to the given water body. Complex ecosystem models are the keys of our better understanding of the possible effects of climate change. Basically, these models were not created for testing the influence of global warming, rather focused on the description of a complex system (e. g. a lake) involving environmental variables, nutrients. However, such models are capable of studying climatic changes as well by taking into consideration a large set of environmental variables. Mostly, the outputs are consistent with the assumptions based on the findings in the field. Since synthetized models are rather difficult to handle and require quite large series of data, the authors proposed a more simple modelling approach, which is capable of examining the effects of global warming. This approach includes weather dependent simulation modelling of the seasonal dynamics of aquatic organisms within a simplified framework.

Comparative analysis of the relationship between phenological phenomena and meteorological indicators based on insect and plant monitoring

Climate change is one of the biggest environmental problems of the 21st century. The most sensitive indicators of the effects of the climatic changes are phenological processes of the biota. The effects of climate change which were observed the earliest are the remarkable changes in the phenology (i.e. the timing of the phenophases) of the plants and animals, which have been systematically monitored later. In our research we searched for the answer: which meteorological factors show the strongest statistical relationships with phenological phenomena based on some chosen plant and insect species (in case of which large phenological databases are available). Our study was based on two large databases: one of them is the Lepidoptera database of the Hungarian Plant Protection and Forestry Light Trap Network, the other one is the Geophytes Phenology Database of the Botanical Garden of Eötvös Loránd University. In the case of butterflies, statistically defined phenological dates were determined based on the daily collection data, while in the case of plants, observation data on blooming were available. The same meteorological indicators were applied for both groups in our study. On the basis of the data series, analyses of correlation were carried out and a new indicator, the so-called G index was introduced, summing up the number of correlations which were found to be significant on the different levels of significance. In our present study we compare the significant meteorological factors and analyse the differences based on the correlation data on plants and butterflies. Data on butterflies are much more varied regarding the effectiveness of the meteorological factors.

Last Interglacial synthesis of high-latitude temperature: temperature anomalies and associated errors for 4 time slices

The Last Interglacial (LIG, 129-116 thousand of years BP, ka) represents a test bed for climate model feedbacks in warmer-than-present high latitude regions. However, mainly because aligning different palaeoclimatic archives and from different parts of the world is not trivial, a spatio-temporal picture of LIG temperature changes is difficult to obtain. Here, we have selected 47 polar ice core and sub-polar marine sediment records and developed a strategy to align them onto the recent AICC2012 ice core chronology. We provide the first compilation of high-latitude temperature changes across the LIG associated with a coherent temporal framework built between ice core and marine sediment records. Our new data synthesis highlights non-synchronous maximum temperature changes between the two hemispheres with the Southern Ocean and Antarctica records showing an early warming compared to North Atlantic records. We also observe warmer than present-day conditions that occur for a longer time period in southern high latitudes than in northern high latitudes. Finally, the amplitude of temperature changes at high northern latitudes is larger compared to high southern latitude temperature changes recorded at the onset and the demise of the LIG. We have also compiled four data-based time slices with temperature anomalies (compared to present-day conditions) at 115 ka, 120 ka, 125 ka and 130 ka and quantitatively estimated temperature uncertainties that include relative dating errors. This provides an improved benchmark for performing more robust model-data comparison. The surface temperature simulated by two General Circulation Models (CCSM3 and HadCM3) for 130 ka and 125 ka is compared to the corresponding time slice data synthesis. This comparison shows that the models predict warmer than present conditions earlier than documented in the North Atlantic, while neither model is able to produce the reconstructed early Southern Ocean and Antarctic warming. Our results highlight the importance of producing a sequence of time slices rather than one single time slice averaging the LIG climate conditions.

Neodymium and Strontium chemistry of Arctic Ocean sediments

The early oceanographic history of the Arctic Ocean is important in regulating, and responding to, climatic changes. However, constraints on its oceanographic history preceding the Quaternary (the past 1.8 Myr) have become available only recently, because of the difficulties associated with obtaining continuous sediment records in such a hostile setting. Here, we use the neodymium isotope compositions of two sediment cores recovered near the North Pole to reconstruct over the past ~5 Myr the sources contributing to Arctic Intermediate Water, a water mass found today at depths of 200 to 1,500 m. We interpret high neodymium ratios for the period between 15 and 2 Myr ago, and for the glacial periods thereafter, as indicative of weathering input from the Siberian Putoranan basalts into the Arctic Ocean. Arctic Intermediate Water was then derived from brine formation in the Eurasian shelf regions, with only a limited contribution of intermediate water from the North Atlantic. In contrast, the modern circulation pattern, with relatively high contributions of North Atlantic Intermediate Water and negligible input from brine formation, exhibits low neodymium isotope ratios and is typical for the interglacial periods of the past 2 Myr. We suggest that changes in climatic conditions and the tectonic setting were responsible for switches between these two modes.

Compilation of planktonic foraminiferal census counts from the Southern Hemisphere Oceans

We present an improved database of planktonic foraminiferal census counts from the Southern Hemisphere Oceans (SHO) from 15°S to 64°S. The SHO database combines 3 existing databases. Using this SHO database, we investigated dissolution biases that might affect faunal census counts. We suggest a depth/[DCO3]2- threshold of ~3800 m/[DCO3]2- = ~-10 to -5 µmol/kg for the Pacific and Indian Oceans, and ~4000 m/[DCO3]2- = ~0 to 10 µmol/kg for the Atlantic Ocean, under which core-top assemblages can be affected by dissolution and are less reliable for paleo-sea surface temperature (SST) reconstructions. We removed all core-tops beyond these thresholds from the SHO database. This database has 598 core-tops and is able to reconstruct past SST variations from 2° to 25.5°C, with a root mean square error of 1.00°C, for annual temperatures. To inspect dissolution affects SST reconstruction quality, we tested the data base with two "leave-one-out" tests, with and without the deep core-tops. We used this database to reconstruct Summer SST (SSST) over the last 20 ka, using the Modern Analog Technique method, on the Southeast Pacific core MD07-3100. This was compared to the SSST reconstructed using the 3 databases used to compile the SHO database. Thus showing that the reconstruction using the SHO database is more reliable, as its dissimilarity values are the lowest. The most important aspect here is the importance of a bias-free, geographic-rich, database. We leave this dataset open-ended to future additions; the new core-tops must be carefully selected, with their chronological frameworks, and evidence of dissolution assessed.

Influência das condições ambientais no verdor da vegetação da caatinga frente às mudanças climáticas

The Caatinga biome, a semi-arid climate ecosystem found in northeast Brazil, presents low rainfall regime and strong seasonality. It has the most alarming climate change projections within the country, with air temperature rising and rainfall reduction with stronger trends than the global average predictions. Climate change can present detrimental results in this biome, reducing vegetation cover and changing its distribution, as well as altering all ecosystem functioning and finally influencing species diversity. In this context, the purpose of this study is to model the environmental conditions (rainfall and temperature) that influence the Caatinga biome productivity and to predict the consequences of environmental conditions in the vegetation dynamics under future climate change scenarios. Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) was used to estimate vegetation greenness (presence and density) in the area. Considering the strong spatial and temporal autocorrelation as well as the heterogeneity of the data, various GLS models were developed and compared to obtain the best model that would reflect rainfall and temperature influence on vegetation greenness. Applying new climate change scenarios in the model, environmental determinants modification, rainfall and temperature, negatively influenced vegetation greenness in the Caatinga biome. This model was used to create potential vegetation maps for current and future of Caatinga cover considering 20% decrease in precipitation and 1 °C increase in temperature until 2040, 35% decrease in precipitation and 2.5 °C increase in temperature in the period 2041-2070 and 50% decrease in precipitation and 4.5 °C increase in temperature in the period 2071-2100. The results suggest that the ecosystem functioning will be affected on the future scenario of climate change with a decrease of 5.9% of the vegetation greenness until 2040, 14.2% until 2070 and 24.3% by the end of the century. The Caatinga vegetation in lower altitude areas (most of the biome) will be more affected by climatic changes.

Clay mineral distribution in sediment core AND-2A

Clay mineral assemblages in sediments from ANDRILL drill core AND-2A were used to reconstruct the Neogene palaeoenvironment. For the first time a clay mineral data set can be presented for southern McMurdo Sound, Ross Sea, Antarctica, that covers an expanded and fairly continuous Lower and Middle Miocene section. Although the occurrence of some authigenic smectites, zeolites and opal-CT documents diagenetic processes, the clay mineral assemblages allow a subdivision of the core into three intervals that reflect changes in provenance and volcanic activity. Interval I (1000-440 mbsf, 20.0-16.5 Ma) is characterised by a dominant sediment source in the Transantarctic Mountains. Frequent and short-term changes in the illite and smectite concentrations were caused by the influx of volcanic sediment components from southern McMurdo Sound and by diagenesis. Interval II (440-225 mbsf, 16.5-15.0 Ma) has much more uniform illite and smectite contents. The assemblage is derived from the Transantarctic Mountains. Interval III (225-0 mbsf, 15.0-0 Ma, containing major hiatuses) shows a distinctly enhanced volcanic influence and sediment components that come from the south of McMurdo Sound. The AND-2A clay mineral assemblages indicate persistent physical weathering conditions and do not mirror the Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum. They indicate that the climatic changes were probably not strong enough to cause a modification in the weathering regime on the Antarctic continent.

Oceanographic investiations from the Sea of Ochotsk

The Sea of Okhotsk is a marginal sea of the Pacific Ocean, which is characterized by strong variations in the productivity and sediment supply due to sea ice transport and river input. Furthermore the variations in the hydrological cycle determine the formation of the SOIW (Sea of Okhotsk Intermediate Water) which plays an important role in the ventilation processes in the intermediate water of the N-Pacific. Isotope data measured on planktonic and benthic foraminifera, sedimentological and geochemical studies of sediment cores and surface samples from the Sea of Okhotsk are used to reconstruct the paleoceanography during the past 350.000 years. The dating and correlation of the sediments are based on oxygen isotope stratigraphy, absolute ages, magnetic susceptibility as well as a detailled tephrachronology of the entire basin. The sedimentation rates are characterized by temporal and spatial variations. The maximum sedimentation rate takes place at the continental slope off Sakhalin due to the input of the Amur River, the sea ice drift and the high productivity. The sedimentation rate in the eastern part of the Sea of Okhotsk is generelly high because of the influence of the nutrient-rich Kamchatka Current. In the central and northern parts of the Sea of Okhotsk, areas with low productivity and reduced terrestrial supply, the sedimentation rate is the lowest. The analyses of the surface sediment samples make it possible to characterize the (sub)- recent sediment supply and transportation processes. The bulk sediment measurements, isotope data and the accumulation rate of ice-rafted debris (IRD) show a dominant sea ice cover and a region with a high productivity as well as a high Amur River input in the western part of the sea. The eastern part of the Sea of Okhotsk, however, is marked by the predominance of warm and nutrient-rich water masses coming from the Kamchatka Current which restricts the sea ice cover. This is reflected in low content of ice-rafted debris and high productivity proxies as well as in isotope data. The deposits of the Sea of Okhotsk are characterized by terrestrial, biogenic and volcanogenic sediment input which varies temporally and spatially. Here, the sedimentation pattern is dominated by the terrestrial input. Bulk sediment measurements and sample analyses of the > 63 micron particle input make it possible to distinguish glacial and interglacial fluctuations. The sedimentation processes during glacial times are determined by a high content of ice-rafted debris, whereas the primary production is higher during interglacial periods. During the last glacial/interglacial cycle the IRD-distribution pattern indicates a strong sea ice transport in the western part and in large areas of the open sea in the eastern part of the Sea of Okhotsk with a relatively constant ice-drift system. The IRD flux in sediments of the oxygen isotope Stage 6 reflects a new sedimentation pattern in the eastern part of the sea. This high IRD accumulation rate indicates ice advances beyond the shelf margin and an iceberg transport from NE-E direction into the Sea of Okhotsk. The several large, brief, negative anomalies in d13C values of Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (s) show releases of methane from basin sediments which correspond to periods of relative sea level falls. The high sedimentation rates on the Sakhalin slope allow insights into the climatic history in Holocene and indicate shorter-scale variations oscillation in Stage 3, which correlate with the global climatic changes. These variations are described as Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles in Greenland ice cores and as Heinrich-Events in several marine sediment cores from the N-Atlantic.

Investigations on sediment coring site PS1823 in the Riiser-Larsen Sea, Southern Ocean

Physical and sedimentological investigations were carried out on a 14 m long gravity core and a 0.5 m long box core from 4440 m water depth off Queen Maud Land, East-Antarctica. Strongly bioturbated hemipelagic muds of predominantly terrigenous origin and a very small biogenic part build up the 'Normal-Facies'. Several sandy to silty layers are inserted in the 'Normal-Facies'. These layers are seperated by lithology, structure and the investigated parameters of this study and are interpreted as turbidites. The source area for the turbidity currents is supposed to be at the uppermost continental margin, close to the shelf break and there is evidenee for this gravity transport within the erosive Ritscher-Canyon, which extends close to the core position. The distribution of biogenic components indicates an age of 1.3 million years or more, with an average sedimentation rate of about 1 cm/1000 years. Early diagenetic proeesses caused water loss by compaction, errosion and dissolution of biogenic components and precipitation and recrystallization of manganese micronodules. Cyclic fluctuations of the sediment-parameters within the 'Normal-Facies' enable the distinction of a 'Glazial'- and an 'Interglazial'-Facies. The 'Glazial'-Facies reflects glacial sedimentary conditions and shows a dark olive gray colour, high susceptibility, low silt/clay-ratios, only a few biogenic components and the regular occurence of interrelated turbidite layers. In contrast, the 'Interglazial'-Facies is dominated by a light olive or olive-brown colour, low susceptibility, high silt/clay-ratios and an increased number of biogenic components. This facies corresponds to interglacial conditions. Three main processes are supposed to have been responsible for the observed facies changes: (1) the bottom water mass circulation, (2) the gravity transport by turbidity currents and (3) the biogenic surface production. These processes are related to the quaternary climatic changes. The extension of the ice shelves directed the gravity transport to the deep sea and the formation of Antarctic Bottom Water, which in turn influenced the silt/clay-ratios in the sediment record. Fluctuations in sea ice coverage controlled the biogenic surface production.