Role of assessment components and recent adverse outcomes in risk estimation and prediction: use of the Short Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) in an adult secure inpatient mental health service

The Short Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability is a structured judgement tool used to inform risk estimation for multiple adverse outcomes. In research, risk estimates outperform the tool's strength and vulnerability scales for violence prediction. Little is known about what its’component parts contribute to the assignment of risk estimates and how those estimates fare in prediction of non-violent adverse outcomes compared with the structured components. START assessment and outcomes data from a secure mental health service (N=84) was collected. Binomial and multinomial regression analyses determined the contribution of selected elements of the START structured domain and recent adverse risk events to risk estimates and outcomes prediction for violence, self-harm/suicidality, victimisation, and self-neglect. START vulnerabilities and lifetime history of violence, predicted the violence risk estimate; self-harm and victimisation estimates were predicted only by corresponding recent adverse events. Recent adverse events uniquely predicted all corresponding outcomes, with the exception of self-neglect which was predicted by the strength scale. Only for victimisation did the risk estimate outperform prediction based on the START components and recent adverse events. In the absence of recent corresponding risk behaviour, restrictions imposed on the basis of START-informed risk estimates could be unwarranted and may be unethical.

Genetic effect of domestication selective pressures on Pacific oyster at larval stage

Among bivalve species, the Pacific oyster, Crassostrea gigas, is the most economically important bivalve production over the world. Today, C. gigas is subject to an important production effort that leads to an intensive artificial selection. Larval stage is relatively unknown, specifically in a domestication context. Genetic consequence of artificial selection is still at a preliminary study. We aimed to tackle the consequence of inconscient domestication on the variance reproductive success focusing on larval stage, keystone of the life cycle. We studied two kinds of specific selective processes that common hatchery rearing practices exert : the effect of discarding the smallest larvae on genetic diversity and the artificial environment rearing effect via the temperature providing a contrast resembling wild versus hatchery conditions (20 and 26°C). In order to monitor the effect of the selection of fast growing larvae by sieving, growth variability and genetic diversity in a larval population descended from a factorial breeding was studied. We used a mixed-family approach to reduce potentially confounding environmental biais. The retrospective assignment of individuals to family groups has been performed using a three microsatellite markers set. Two different rearing were carried out in parallel. For three (replicates) 50-l tanks, the smallest larvae were progressively discarded by selective sieving, whereas for the three others no selective sieving was performed. The intensity of selective sieving was adjusted so as to discard 50% of the larvae over the whole rearing period in a progressive manner. As soon as the larvae reached the pediveliger stage, ready to settle larvae were sampled for genetic analysis. Regarding the artificial environment rearing effect via the temperature, we used a similar mixed-family approach. The progeny from a factorial breeding design was divided as follows: three (replicates) 50-l tanks were dedicaced to a rearing at 26°C versus 20°C for three others 50-l tanks. The whole size variability was preserved for this experiment. Individual growth measurements for larvae genetically identified have been performed at days 22 and 30 after fertilization for both conditions. In a same way, we collected individual measurements for genotyped juvenile oysters (80 days after fertilization). At a phenotypic scale, relative survival and settlement success for larvae with sieving were higher. Sieving appears as a time-saving process associated with a better relative survival ratio. But in the same time, our results confirm that a significant genetic variability exist for early developmental traits in the Pacific oyster. This is congruent with the results already obtained that investigated genetic variability and genetic correlations in early life-history traits of Crassostrea gigas. Discarding around 50% of the smallest larvae can lead to significant selection at the larval stage.

DISPATCHING AND RELOCATION OF EMERGENCY VEHICLES ON FREEWAYS: THEORIES AND APPLICATIONS

Resource allocation decisions are made to serve the current emergency without knowing which future emergency will be occurring. Different ordered combinations of emergencies result in different performance outcomes. Even though future decisions can be anticipated with scenarios, previous models follow an assumption that events over a time interval are independent. This dissertation follows an assumption that events are interdependent, because speed reduction and rubbernecking due to an initial incident provoke secondary incidents. The misconception that secondary incidents are not common has resulted in overlooking a look-ahead concept. This dissertation is a pioneer in relaxing the structural assumptions of independency during the assignment of emergency vehicles. When an emergency is detected and a request arrives, an appropriate emergency vehicle is immediately dispatched. We provide tools for quantifying impacts based on fundamentals of incident occurrences through identification, prediction, and interpretation of secondary incidents. A proposed online dispatching model minimizes the cost of moving the next emergency unit, while making the response as close to optimal as possible. Using the look-ahead concept, the online model flexibly re-computes the solution, basing future decisions on present requests. We introduce various online dispatching strategies with visualization of the algorithms, and provide insights on their differences in behavior and solution quality. The experimental evidence indicates that the algorithm works well in practice. After having served a designated request, the available and/or remaining vehicles are relocated to a new base for the next emergency. System costs will be excessive if delay regarding dispatching decisions is ignored when relocating response units. This dissertation presents an integrated method with a principle of beginning with a location phase to manage initial incidents and progressing through a dispatching phase to manage the stochastic occurrence of next incidents. Previous studies used the frequency of independent incidents and ignored scenarios in which two incidents occurred within proximal regions and intervals. The proposed analytical model relaxes the structural assumptions of Poisson process (independent increments) and incorporates evolution of primary and secondary incident probabilities over time. The mathematical model overcomes several limiting assumptions of the previous models, such as no waiting-time, returning rule to original depot, and fixed depot. The temporal locations flexible with look-ahead are compared with current practice that locates units in depots based on Poisson theory. A linearization of the formulation is presented and an efficient heuristic algorithm is implemented to deal with a large-scale problem in real-time.

An Estimation of Distribution Algorithm for Nurse Scheduling

Schedules can be built in a similar way to a human scheduler by using a set of rules that involve domain knowledge. This paper presents an Estimation of Distribution Algorithm (EDA) for the nurse scheduling problem, which involves choosing a suitable scheduling rule from a set for the assignment of each nurse. Unlike previous work that used Genetic Algorithms (GAs) to implement implicit learning, the learning in the proposed algorithm is explicit, i.e. we identify and mix building blocks directly. The EDA is applied to implement such explicit learning by building a Bayesian network of the joint distribution of solutions. The conditional probability of each variable in the network is computed according to an initial set of promising solutions. Subsequently, each new instance for each variable is generated by using the corresponding conditional probabilities, until all variables have been generated, i.e. in our case, a new rule string has been obtained. Another set of rule strings will be generated in this way, some of which will replace previous strings based on fitness selection. If stopping conditions are not met, the conditional probabilities for all nodes in the Bayesian network are updated again using the current set of promising rule strings. Computational results from 52 real data instances demonstrate the success of this approach. It is also suggested that the learning mechanism in the proposed approach might be suitable for other scheduling problems.

Parental contribution to progeny during experimental spawning of jungle perch, Kuhlia rupestris

When releasing captive-bred animals into wild populations, it is essential to maintain the capacity for adaptation and resilience by minimising the effect on population genetic diversity. Populations of the jungle perch (Kuhlia rupestris) have become reduced or locally extinct along the Queensland coast; thus, captive breeding of K. rupestris for restocking is presently underway. Currently, multiple individuals are placed in a tank to produce larvae, yet the number of adults contributing to larval production is unknown. We performed a power analysis on pre-existing microsatellite loci to determine the minimum number of loci and larvae required to achieve accurate assignment of parentage. These loci were then used to determine the number of contributing participants during a series of four spawning events through the summer breeding season in 2012-2013. Not all fish contributed to larval production and no relationship was found between male body size and parentage success. In most cases, there was a high skew of offspring to one mating pair (62% was the average contribution of the most successful pair per tank). This has significant implications for the aquaculture, restocking and conservation of K. rupestris.

Economic Development of Urban Areas

In this dissertation I study the development of urban areas. At the aggregate level I investigate how they may be affected by climate change policies and by being designated the seat of governmental power. At the household level I study with coauthors how microfinance could improve the health of urban residents. In Chapter 1, I investigate how local employment may be affected by electricity price increases, which is a likely consequence of climate change policies. I outline how previous studies that find large, negative effects may be biased. To overcome these biases I develop a novel estimation strategy that blends border-pair regressions with the synthetic control methodology. I show the conditions for consistent estimation. Using this estimator, I find no effect of contemporaneous price changes on employment. Consistent with the longer time-frame for manufacturing decisions, I do find evidence for negative effects from perceived permanent price shocks. These estimates are much smaller than previous research has found. National capital cities are often substantially larger than other cities in their countries. In Chapter 2, I investigate whether there is a causal effect from being a capital by studying the 1960 relocation of the Brazilian capital from Rio de Janeiro to Brasília. Using a synthetic controls strategy I find that losing the capital had no significant effects on Rio de Janeiro in terms of population, employment, or gross domestic product (GDP). I find that Brasília experienced large and significant increases in population, employment, and GDP. I find evidence of large spillovers from the public to the private sector. Chapter 3 investigates how microfinance could increase the uptake of costly health goods. We study the effect of time payments (micro-loans or micro-savings) on willingness-to-pay (WTP) for a water filter among households in the slums of Dhaka, Bangladesh. We find that time payments significantly increase WTP: compared to a lump-sum up-front purchase, median WTP increases 83% with a six-month loan and 115% with a 12-month loan. We find that households are quite patient with respect to consumption of health inputs. We find evidence for the presence of credit and savings constraints.

Privity of Contract and Third Party Rights in European Construction Projects

Privity of contract has lately been criticized in several European jurisdictions, particu-larly due to the onerous consequences it gives rise to in arrangements typical for the modern exchange such as chains of contracts. Privity of contract is a classical premise of contract law, which prohibits a third party to acquire or enforce rights under a contract to which he is not a party. Such a premise is usually seen to be manifested in the doctrine of privity of contract developed under common law, however, the jurisdictions of continental Europe do recognize a corresponding starting point in contract law. One of the traditional industry sectors affected by this premise is the construction industry. A typical large construction project includes a contractual chain comprised of an employer, a main contractor and a subcontractor. The employer is usually dependent on the subcontractor's performance, however, no contractual nexus exists between the two. Accordingly, the employer might want to circumvent the privity of contract in order to reach the subcontractor and to mitigate any risks imposed by such a chain of contracts. From this starting point, the study endeavors to examine the concept of privity of con-tract in European jurisdictions and particularly the methods used to circumvent the rule in the construction industry practice. For this purpose, the study employs both a com-parative and a legal dogmatic method. The principal aim is to discover general principles not just from a theoretical perspective, but from a practical angle as well. Consequently, a considerable amount of legal praxis as well as international industry forms have been used as references. The most important include inter alia the model forms produced by FIDIC as well as Olli Norros' doctoral thesis "Vastuu sopimusketjussa". According to the conclusions of this study, the four principal ways to circumvent privity of contract in European construction projects include liability in a chain of contracts, collateral contracts, assignment of rights as well as security instruments. The contempo-rary European jurisdictions recognize these concepts and the references suggest that they are an integral part of the current market practice. Despite the fact that such means of circumventing privity of contract raise a number of legal questions and affect the risk position of particularly a subcontractor considerably, it seems that the impairment of the premise of privity of contract is an increasing trend in the construction industry.

An Estimation of Distribution Algorithm for Nurse Scheduling

Schedules can be built in a similar way to a human scheduler by using a set of rules that involve domain knowledge. This paper presents an Estimation of Distribution Algorithm (EDA) for the nurse scheduling problem, which involves choosing a suitable scheduling rule from a set for the assignment of each nurse. Unlike previous work that used Genetic Algorithms (GAs) to implement implicit learning, the learning in the proposed algorithm is explicit, i.e. we identify and mix building blocks directly. The EDA is applied to implement such explicit learning by building a Bayesian network of the joint distribution of solutions. The conditional probability of each variable in the network is computed according to an initial set of promising solutions. Subsequently, each new instance for each variable is generated by using the corresponding conditional probabilities, until all variables have been generated, i.e. in our case, a new rule string has been obtained. Another set of rule strings will be generated in this way, some of which will replace previous strings based on fitness selection. If stopping conditions are not met, the conditional probabilities for all nodes in the Bayesian network are updated again using the current set of promising rule strings. Computational results from 52 real data instances demonstrate the success of this approach. It is also suggested that the learning mechanism in the proposed approach might be suitable for other scheduling problems.

An Estimation of Distribution Algorithm for Nurse Scheduling

Schedules can be built in a similar way to a human scheduler by using a set of rules that involve domain knowledge. This paper presents an Estimation of Distribution Algorithm (EDA) for the nurse scheduling problem, which involves choosing a suitable scheduling rule from a set for the assignment of each nurse. Unlike previous work that used Genetic Algorithms (GAs) to implement implicit learning, the learning in the proposed algorithm is explicit, i.e. we identify and mix building blocks directly. The EDA is applied to implement such explicit learning by building a Bayesian network of the joint distribution of solutions. The conditional probability of each variable in the network is computed according to an initial set of promising solutions. Subsequently, each new instance for each variable is generated by using the corresponding conditional probabilities, until all variables have been generated, i.e. in our case, a new rule string has been obtained. Another set of rule strings will be generated in this way, some of which will replace previous strings based on fitness selection. If stopping conditions are not met, the conditional probabilities for all nodes in the Bayesian network are updated again using the current set of promising rule strings. Computational results from 52 real data instances demonstrate the success of this approach. It is also suggested that the learning mechanism in the proposed approach might be suitable for other scheduling problems.

Credit risk & forward price models

Doutoramento em Gestão

Corporate governance : value creation and performance in credit unions

In this study, we examine the relationship between good corporate governance practices and the creation of value/performance of credit unions from 2010 to 2012. The objective was to create and validate a corporate governance index for credit unions, and to then analyse the relationship between good governance practices and the creation of value/performance. The problem question is: do good corporate governance practices provide value creation for credit unions? The research started by creating indices from factor analysis to identify latent dependent variables related to value creation and performance; next indices were created from the principal component analysis for the creation of independent latent variables related to corporate governance. Finally, based on panel data from regression models, the influence of the variables and indices related to corporate governance on the indices of value creation and performance was verified. Based on the research, it became evident that the Corporate Governance Index (IGC) is mainly impacted by Executive Management, with 40.31% of the IGC value, followed by the Representation and Participation dimension, with 34.07% of the IGC value. The contribution for academics was the creation of the Corporate Governance Index (IGC) applied for credit unions. As for the contribution to the system of credit unions, the highlight was the effectiveness of the mechanisms for economic-financial and asset management adopted by BACEN, credit unions and OCEMG.

Governed by the cycle : direct and inverted interest-rate sensitivity of emerging market corporate debt

An innovative approach to quantify interest rate sensitivities of emerging market corporates is proposed. Our focus is centered at price sensitivity of modeled investment grade and high yield portfolios to changes in the present value of modeled portfolios composed of safe-haven assets, which define risk-free interest rates. Our methodology is based on blended yield indexes. Modeled investment horizons are always kept above one year thus allowing to derive empirical implications for practical strategies of interest rate risk management in the banking book. As our study spans over the period 2002 – 2015, it covers interest rate sensitivity of assets under the pre-crisis, crisis, and post-crisis phases of the economic cycles. We demonstrate that the emerging market corporate bonds both, investment grade and high yield types, depending on the phase of a business cycle exhibit diverse regimes of sensitivity to interest rate changes. We observe switching from a direct positive sensitivity under the normal pre-crisis market conditions to an inverted negative sensitivity during distressed turmoil of the recent financial crisis, and than back to direct positive but weaker sensitivity under new normal post-crisis conjuncture. Our unusual blended yield-based approach allows us to present theoretical explanations of such phenomena from economics point of view and helps us to solve an old controversy regarding positive or negative responses of credit spreads to interest rates. We present numerical quantification of sensitivities, which corroborate with our conclusion that hedging of interest rate risk ought to be a dynamic process linked to the phases of business cycles as we evidence a binary-like behavior of interest rate sensitivities along the economic time. Our findings allow banks and financial institutions for approaching downside risk management and optimizing economic capital under Basel III regulatory capital rules.

Credit application systems for investments in agriculture and livestock in rural areas in Latin America

La falta de recursos para mejorar los insumos y herramientas es causa fundamental de la falta de seguridad alimentaria, según las familias y organizaciones entrevistadas en las Comunidades Marginadas y Aisladas (CMA) en América Latina. Las familias que viven en este tipo de comunidades acceden a los insumos adecuados bien a través de la donación, o a través del crédito. La condición de marginación y aislamiento invita a optar por el crédito, al volverse imprescindible el contar con intervenciones sostenibles por la poca atención que este tipo de comunidades recibe de las autoridades públicas y la cooperación al desarrollo. De entre las metodologías para acceder a los créditos en las CMA destacan las líneas de crédito, los Programas de Grupos Solidarios (PGSs), o las Estructuras Financieras Locales (EFLs) o bancos comunales. Tras el análisis realizado en este artículo, se concluye que las EFLs o bancos comunales son la metodología capaz de arrojar mejores resultados.

Prospect theory and the effects of bankruptcy laws on entrepreneurial aspirations

We apply prospect theory to explain how personal and corporate bankruptcy laws affect risk perceptions of entrepreneurs at time of entry and therefore their growth ambitions. Previous theories have reached ambiguous conclusions as to whether countries with more debtor-friendly bankruptcy laws (i.e. laws that are more forgiving towards debtors in bankruptcy proceedings) are likely to have more entrepreneurs, or whether, creditorfriendly regimes have positive effects on new ventures via enhanced incentives for the supply of credit to entrepreneurs. Responding to this ambiguity, we apply prospect theory to propose that entrepreneurs do not attach the same significance to different elements of bankruptcy codes—and to explain which aspects of debtor-friendly bankruptcy laws matter more to entrepreneurs. Based on this, we derive and confirm hypotheses about the impact of aspects of bankruptcy codes on entrepreneurial activity using the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor combined with data on both personal and corporate bankruptcyregulations for 15 developed OECD countries. We use multilevel random coefficient logistic regressions to take account of the hierarchical nature of the data (country and individual levels). Because entrepreneurs and creditors are sensitive to different elements of the codes, there is scope for optimisation of the legal design of bankruptcy law to achieve both an adequate supply of credit and to encourage high-ambition entrepreneurship.

Essays on the Provision of Health and Education

This thesis consists of three independent chapters that all deal with questions relevant for the provision of health and education and contribute to the field of economic theory. Both Chapter 1 and Chapter 2 address the broad problem of public provision of scarce and indivisible goods. Therein, the role of wealth distribution and the impact wealth has on the assignment of the goods is of particular interest. Chapter 3 addresses quality concerns for the provision of health services that occur if quality cannot be observed precisely and cannot be contracted on.