Analytical modeling of driver response in crash avoidance maneuvering. Volume III: a trim model and computer program for determining ground vehicle steady state operating conditions and quasilinear stability coefficients. Final report.

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Washington, D.C.

Development of a Conceptual Site Model for Evaluating Seawater Intrusion under Sea Level Rise Scenarios Using Analytical Methods

Island County is located in the Puget Sound of Washington State and includes several islands, the largest of which is Whidbey Island. Central Whidbey Island was chosen as the project site, as residents use groundwater for their water supply and seawater intrusion near the coast is known to contaminate this resource. In 1989, Island County adopted a Saltwater Intrusion Policy and used chloride concentrations in existing wells in order to define and map “risk zones.” In 2005, this method of defining vulnerability was updated with the use of water level elevations in conjunction with chloride concentrations. The result of this work was a revised map of seawater intrusion vulnerability that is currently in use by Island County. This groundwater management strategy is defined as trigger-level management and is largely a reactive tool. In order to evaluate trends in the hydrogeologic processes at the site, including seawater intrusion under sea level rise scenarios, this report presents a workflow where groundwater flow and discharge to the sea are quantified using a revised conceptual site model. The revised conceptual site model used several simplifying assumptions that allow for first-order quantitative predictions of seawater intrusion using analytical methods. Data from water well reports included lithologic and well construction information, static water levels, and aquifer tests for specific capacity. Results from specific capacity tests define the relationship between discharge and drawdown and were input for a modified Theis equation to solve for transmissivity (Arihood, 2009). Components of the conceptual site model were created in ArcGIS and included interpolation of water level elevation, creation of groundwater basins, and the calculation of net recharge and groundwater discharge for each basin. The revised conceptual site model was then used to hypothesize regarding hydrogeologic processes based on observed trends in groundwater flow. Hypotheses used to explain a reduction in aquifer thickness and hydraulic gradient were: (1) A large increase in transmissivity occurring near the coast. (2) The reduced aquifer thickness and hydraulic gradient were the result of seawater intrusion. (3) Data used to create the conceptual site model were insufficient to resolve trends in groundwater flow. For Hypothesis 2, analytical solutions for groundwater flow under Dupuit assumptions were applied in order to evaluate seawater intrusion under projected sea level rise scenarios. Results indicated that a rise in sea level has little impact on the position of a saltwater wedge; however, a reduction in recharge has significant consequences. Future work should evaluate groundwater flow using an expanded monitoring well network and aquifer recharge should be promoted by reducing surface water runoff.

Laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy quantitative analysis method via adaptive analytical line selection and relevance vector machine regression model

Abstract A new LIBS quantitative analysis method based on analytical line adaptive selection and Relevance Vector Machine (RVM) regression model is proposed. First, a scheme of adaptively selecting analytical line is put forward in order to overcome the drawback of high dependency on a priori knowledge. The candidate analytical lines are automatically selected based on the built-in characteristics of spectral lines, such as spectral intensity, wavelength and width at half height. The analytical lines which will be used as input variables of regression model are determined adaptively according to the samples for both training and testing. Second, an LIBS quantitative analysis method based on RVM is presented. The intensities of analytical lines and the elemental concentrations of certified standard samples are used to train the RVM regression model. The predicted elemental concentration analysis results will be given with a form of confidence interval of probabilistic distribution, which is helpful for evaluating the uncertainness contained in the measured spectra. Chromium concentration analysis experiments of 23 certified standard high-alloy steel samples have been carried out. The multiple correlation coefficient of the prediction was up to 98.85%, and the average relative error of the prediction was 4.01%. The experiment results showed that the proposed LIBS quantitative analysis method achieved better prediction accuracy and better modeling robustness compared with the methods based on partial least squares regression, artificial neural network and standard support vector machine.

VSC Transmission model for analytical studies

Preprint

Customer relationship management model - A strategic and analytical approach for Amorim Turismo

Field lab: Entrepreneurial and innovative ventures

Numerical and analytical study of an atherosclerosis inflammatory disease model

We study a reaction–diffusion mathematical model for the evolution of atherosclerosis as an inflammation process by combining analytical tools with computer-intensive numerical calculations. The computational work involved the calculation of more than sixty thousand solutions of the full reaction–diffusion system and lead to the complete characterisation of the ωω-limit for every initial condition. Qualitative properties of the solution are rigorously proved, some of them hinted at by the numerical study

Modeling multivariate autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity with the double smooth transition conditional correlation GARCH Model

In this paper, we propose a multivariate GARCH model with a time-varying conditional correlation structure. The new double smooth transition conditional correlation (DSTCC) GARCH model extends the smooth transition conditional correlation (STCC) GARCH model of Silvennoinen and Teräsvirta (2005) by including another variable according to which the correlations change smoothly between states of constant correlations. A Lagrange multiplier test is derived to test the constancy of correlations against the DSTCC-GARCH model, and another one to test for another transition in the STCC-GARCH framework. In addition, other specification tests, with the aim of aiding the model building procedure, are considered. Analytical expressions for the test statistics and the required derivatives are provided. Applying the model to the stock and bond futures data, we discover that the correlation pattern between them has dramatically changed around the turn of the century. The model is also applied to a selection of world stock indices, and we find evidence for an increasing degree of integration in the capital markets.

Analytical modeling and sensitivity analysis for travel time estimation on signalized urban networks

This paper presents a model for estimation of average travel time and its variability on signalized urban networks using cumulative plots. The plots are generated based on the availability of data: a) case-D, for detector data only; b) case-DS, for detector data and signal timings; and c) case-DSS, for detector data, signal timings and saturation flow rate. The performance of the model for different degrees of saturation and different detector detection intervals is consistent for case-DSS and case-DS whereas, for case-D the performance is inconsistent. The sensitivity analysis of the model for case-D indicates that it is sensitive to detection interval and signal timings within the interval. When detection interval is integral multiple of signal cycle then it has low accuracy and low reliability. Whereas, for detection interval around 1.5 times signal cycle both accuracy and reliability are high.

An analytical method to solve a general class of nonlinear reactive transport models

Three recent papers published in Chemical Engineering Journal studied the solution of a model of diffusion and nonlinear reaction using three different methods. Two of these studies obtained series solutions using specialized mathematical methods, known as the Adomian decomposition method and the homotopy analysis method. Subsequently it was shown that the solution of the same particular model could be written in terms of a transcendental function called Gauss’ hypergeometric function. These three previous approaches focused on one particular reactive transport model. This particular model ignored advective transport and considered one specific reaction term only. Here we generalize these previous approaches and develop an exact analytical solution for a general class of steady state reactive transport models that incorporate (i) combined advective and diffusive transport, and (ii) any sufficiently differentiable reaction term R(C). The new solution is a convergent Maclaurin series. The Maclaurin series solution can be derived without any specialized mathematical methods nor does it necessarily involve the computation of any transcendental function. Applying the Maclaurin series solution to certain case studies shows that the previously published solutions are particular cases of the more general solution outlined here. We also demonstrate the accuracy of the Maclaurin series solution by comparing with numerical solutions for particular cases.

Unpacking Japan's 21st century "National Conversation" : images of the future beyond the iron cage of the "Catch Up" model

How does the image of the future operate upon history, and upon national and individual identities? To what extent are possible futures colonized by the image? What are the un-said futurecratic discourses that underlie the image of the future? Such questions inspired the examination of Japan’s futures images in this thesis. The theoretical point of departure for this examination is Polak’s (1973) seminal research into the theory of the ‘image of the future’ and seven contemporary Japanese texts which offer various alternative images for Japan’s futures, selected as representative of a ‘national conversation’ about the futures of that nation. These seven images of the future are: 1. Report of the Prime Minister’s Commission on Japan’s Goals in the 21st Century—The Frontier Within: Individual Empowerment and Better Governance in the New Millennium, compiled by a committee headed by Japan’s preeminent Jungian psychologist Kawai Hayao (1928-2007); 2. Slow Is Beautiful—a publication by Tsuji Shinichi, in which he re-images Japan as a culture represented by the metaphor of the sloth, concerned with slow and quality-oriented livingry as a preferred image of the future to Japan’s current post-bubble cult of speed and economic efficiency; 3. MuRatopia is an image of the future in the form of a microcosmic prototype community and on-going project based on the historically significant island of Awaji, and established by Japanese economist and futures thinker Yamaguchi Kaoru; 4. F.U.C.K, I Love Japan, by author Tanja Yujiro provides this seven text image of the future line-up with a youth oriented sub-culture perspective on that nation’s futures; 5. IMAGINATION / CREATION—a compilation of round table discussions about Japan’s futures seen from the point of view of Japan’s creative vanguard; 6. Visionary People in a Visionless Country: 21 Earth Connecting Human Stories is a collection of twenty one essays compiled by Denmark born Tokyo resident Peter David Pedersen; and, 7. EXODUS to the Land of Hope, authored by Murakami Ryu, one of Japan’s most prolific and influential writers, this novel suggests a future scenario portraying a massive exodus of Japan’s youth, who, literate with state-of-the-art information and communication technologies (ICTs) move en masse to Japan’s northern island of Hokkaido to launch a cyber-revolution from the peripheries. The thesis employs a Futures Triangle Analysis (FTA) as the macro organizing framework and as such examines both pushes of the present and weights from the past before moving to focus on the pulls to the future represented by the seven texts mentioned above. Inayatullah’s (1999) Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) is the analytical framework used in examining the texts. Poststructuralist concepts derived primarily from the work of Michel Foucault are a particular (but not exclusive) reference point for the analytical approach it encompasses. The research questions which reflect the triangulated analytic matrix are: 1. What are the pushes—in terms of current trends—that are affecting Japan’s futures? 2. What are the historical and cultural weights that influence Japan’s futures? 3. What are the emerging transformative Japanese images of the future discourses, as embodied in actual texts, and what potential do they offer for transformative change in Japan? Research questions one and two are discussed in Chapter five and research question three is discussed in Chapter six. The first two research questions should be considered preliminary. The weights outlined in Chapter five indicate that the forces working against change in Japan are formidable, structurally deep-rooted, wide-spread, and under-recognized as change-adverse. Findings and analyses of the push dimension reveal strong forces towards a potentially very different type of Japan. However it is the seven contemporary Japanese images of the future, from which there is hope for transformative potential, which form the analytical heart of the thesis. In analyzing these texts the thesis establishes the richness of Japan’s images of the future and, as such, demonstrates the robustness of Japan’s stance vis-à-vis the problem of a perceived map-less and model-less future for Japan. Frontier is a useful image of the future, whose hybrid textuality, consisting of government, business, academia, and creative minority perspectives, demonstrates the earnestness of Japan’s leaders in favour of the creation of innovative futures for that nation. Slow is powerful in its aim to reconceptualize Japan’s philosophies of temporality, and build a new kind of nation founded on the principles of a human-oriented and expanded vision of economy based around the core metaphor of slowness culture. However its viability in Japan, with its post-Meiji historical pushes to an increasingly speed-obsessed social construction of reality, could render it impotent. MuRatopia is compelling in its creative hybridity indicative of an advanced IT society, set in a modern day utopian space based upon principles of a high communicative social paradigm, and sustainability. IMAGINATION / CREATION is less the plan than the platform for a new discussion on Japan’s transformation from an econo-centric social framework to a new Creative Age. It accords with emerging discourses from the Creative Industries, which would re-conceive of Japan as a leading maker of meaning, rather than as the so-called guzu, a term referred to in the book meaning ‘laggard’. In total, Love Japan is still the most idiosyncratic of all the images of the future discussed. Its communication style, which appeals to Japan’s youth cohort, establishes it as a potentially formidable change agent in a competitive market of futures images. Visionary People is a compelling image for its revolutionary and subversive stance against Japan’s vision-less political leadership, showing that it is the people, not the futures-making elite or aristocracy who must take the lead and create a new vanguard for the nation. Finally, Murakami’s Exodus cannot be ruled out as a compelling image of the future. Sharing the appeal of Tanja’s Love Japan to an increasingly disenfranchised youth, Exodus portrays a near-term future that is achievable in the here and now, by Japan’s teenagers, using information and communications technologies (ICTs) to subvert leadership, and create utopianist communities based on alternative social principles. The principal contribution from this investigation in terms of theory belongs to that of developing the Japanese image of the future. In this respect, the literature reviews represent a significant compilation, specifically about Japanese futures thinking, the Japanese image of the future, and the Japanese utopia. Though not exhaustive, this compilation will hopefully serve as a useful starting point for future research, not only for the Japanese image of the future, but also for all image of the future research. Many of the sources are in Japanese and their English summations are an added reason to respect this achievement. Secondly, the seven images of the future analysed in Chapter six represent the first time that Japanese image of the future texts have been systematically organized and analysed. Their translation from Japanese to English can be claimed as a significant secondary contribution. What is more, they have been analysed according to current futures methodologies that reveal a layeredness, depth, and overall richness existing in Japanese futures images. Revealing this image-richness has been one of the most significant findings of this investigation, suggesting that there is fertile research to be found from this still under-explored field, whose implications go beyond domestic Japanese concerns, and may offer fertile material for futures thinkers and researchers, Japanologists, social planners, and policy makers.

Developing a research method to test a new first-order decision making model for the procurement of public sector major infrastructure

Given global demand for new infrastructure, governments face substantial challenges in funding new infrastructure and simultaneously delivering Value for Money (VfM). The paper begins with an update on a key development in a new early/first-order procurement decision making model that deploys production cost/benefit theory and theories concerning transaction costs from the New Institutional Economics, in order to identify a procurement mode that is likely to deliver the best ratio of production costs and transaction costs to production benefits, and therefore deliver superior VfM relative to alternative procurement modes. In doing so, the new procurement model is also able to address the uncertainty concerning the relative merits of Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) and non-PPP procurement approaches. The main aim of the paper is to develop competition as a dependent variable/proxy for VfM and a hypothesis (overarching proposition), as well as developing a research method to test the new procurement model. Competition reflects both production costs and benefits (absolute level of competition) and transaction costs (level of realised competition) and is a key proxy for VfM. Using competition as a proxy for VfM, the overarching proposition is given as: When the actual procurement mode matches the predicted (theoretical) procurement mode (informed by the new procurement model), then actual competition is expected to match potential competition (based on actual capacity). To collect data to test this proposition, the research method that is developed in this paper combines a survey and case study approach. More specifically, data collection instruments for the surveys to collect data on actual procurement, actual competition and potential competition are outlined. Finally, plans for analysing this survey data are briefly mentioned, along with noting the planned use of analytical pattern matching in deploying the new procurement model and in order to develop the predicted (theoretical) procurement mode.