Previsão multi-passos a frente do preço de energia elétrica de curto prazo no mercado brasileiro

A predição do preço da energia elétrica é uma questão importante para todos os participantes do mercado, para que decidam as estratégias mais adequadas e estabeleçam os contratos bilaterais que maximizem seus lucros e minimizem os seus riscos. O preço da energia tipicamente exibe sazonalidade, alta volatilidade e picos. Além disso, o preço da energia é influenciado por muitos fatores, tais como: demanda de energia, clima e preço de combustíveis. Este trabalho propõe uma nova abordagem híbrida para a predição de preços de energia no mercado de curto prazo. Tal abordagem combina os filtros autorregressivos integrados de médias móveis (ARIMA) e modelos de Redes Neurais (RNA) numa estrutura em cascata e utiliza variáveis explanatórias. Um processo em dois passos é aplicado. Na primeira etapa, as variáveis explanatórias são preditas. Na segunda etapa, os preços de energia são preditos usando os valores futuros das variáveis exploratórias. O modelo proposto considera uma predição de 12 passos (semanas) a frente e é aplicada ao mercado brasileiro, que possui características únicas de comportamento e adota o despacho centralizado baseado em custo. Os resultados mostram uma boa capacidade de predição de picos de preço e uma exatidão satisfatória de acordo com as medidas de erro e testes de perda de cauda quando comparado com técnicas tradicionais. Em caráter complementar, é proposto um modelo classificador composto de árvores de decisão e RNA, com objetivo de explicitar as regras de formação de preços e, em conjunto com o modelo preditor, atuar como uma ferramenta atrativa para mitigar os riscos da comercialização de energia.

Cytogenetic studies in six species of Scinax (Anura, Hylidae) clade Scinax ruber from northern and northeastern Brazil

Scinax species are still underrepresented in cytogenetic studies, mainly with respect to populations from northeastern and northern Brazil. In this study, we provide new chromosomal information on Scinax boesemani, S. camposseabrai, S. garbei, S. pachycrus, S. trilineatus and S. x-signatus, all belonging to clade S. ruber. They were collected at two locations in the Caatinga biome (northeastern Brazil) and at one in the Amazon (northern Brazil) biomes. Chromosomes were analyzed by conventional staining, C-banding, Ag-NOR staining, and fluorochrome staining. All species shared a modal diploid value of 2n = 24 and fundamental arm number (FN) of 48. Moreover, both chromosomal size and morphology were similar to other species in this Scinax clade. C-banding revealed centromeric heterochromatin in all species, along with terminal species-specific C-bands in some species. Active nucleolar organizer regions (Ag-NORs) were identified at 11q in most species, except for S. boesemani and S. garbei (Ag-NORs at interstitial region of 8q). Differing from most anurans, GC-rich regions were not restricted to NORs, but also coincident with some centromeric and terminal C-bands. These data contribute to the cytotaxonomy of Scinax by providing chromosomal markers and demonstrating the occurrence of microstructural rearrangements and inversions on chromosomal evolution of Scinax.

Genetic identification of bucktooth parrotfish Sparisoma radians (Valenciennes, 1840) (Labridae, Scarinae) by chromosomal and molecular markers

Parrotfishes (Labridae, Scarinae) comprise a large marine fish group of difficult identification, particularly during juvenile phase when the typical morphology and coloration of adults are absent. Therefore, the goal of this study was to test cytogenetic markers and DNA barcoding in the identification of bucktooth parrtotfish Sparisoma radians from the northeastern coast of Brazil. Sequencing of cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) confirmed all studied samples as S. radians, and all showed high similarity (99-100%) with Caribbean populations. The karyotype of this species was divergent from most marine Perciformes, being composed of 2n = 46 chromosomes. These consisted of a large number of metacentric and submetacentric pairs with small amounts of heterochromatin and GC-rich single nucleolar organizer regions (NORs) not syntenic to 5S rDNA clusters. These are the first data about DNA barcoding in parrotfish from the Brazilian province and the first refined chromosomal analysis in Scarinae, providing useful data to a reliable genetic identification of S. radians.

Oral live attenuated human rotavirus vaccine (RotarixTM) offers sustained high protection against severe G9P[8] rotavirus gastroenteritis during the first two years of life in Brazilian children

In a large Phase III trial conducted in 10 Latin American countries, the safety and efficacy of the live attenuated monovalent rotavirus vaccine RIX4414 was evaluated in 15,183 healthy infants followed up during the first two years of life. Belém was the only site in Brazil included in this multicentre trial. The study in Belém included a subset of 653 infants who were followed up until 24 months of age for protection against severe rotavirus gastroenteritis. These subjects were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive two doses of vaccine (n = 328) or two doses of placebo (n = 325) at approximately two and four months of age. Of the 653 enrolled infants, 23 dropped out during the study period. For the combined two-year period, the efficacy of RIX4414 was 72.3% [95% confidence interval (CI) 37.5-89.1%] against severe rotavirus-related gastroenteritis, reaching a protection rate of 81.8% (95% CI 36.4-96.6%) against circulating wild-type G9 rotavirus strains. It is concluded that two doses of RIX4414 are highly efficacious against severe rotavirus gastroenteritis in Belém during the first two years of life and provide high protection against the worldwide emergence and spread of G9P[8] strains.

Relative age effect on the reaction time of soccer players under 13 years old

O efeito da idade relativa, que consiste na vantagem obtida pelo atleta nascido mais próximo ao início do ano de seleção, tem se mostrado uma variável importante para o processo de seleção de esportistas. Este estudo objetivou avaliar a influência da época de nascimento no tempo de reação de escolha de futebolistas presentes nas categorias de base (sub 13) de clubes profissionais futebol. Participaram 76 atletas com idade de 13,36 ± 0,45 anos. Os voluntários foram submetidos ao teste do TRE, e os resultados categorizados conforme o semestre de nascimento (S1 ou S2). Foi empregado o teste t para a comparação entre grupos, e análise de Correlação de Pearson para verificar a existência de associações entre as variáveis. Os resultados não indicaram diferenças entre os grupos no tempo de reação (r = 0,033 e p = 0,772) e no tempo de movimento (r = 0,0073 e p = 0,530). Concluiu-se que para essa população, a época de nascimento não influencia no desempenho dessa capacidade.

Avaliação de características morfológicas e morfométricas dos pêlos de roedores da Mata Atlântica do estado de São Paulo

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Afonso Lomonaco: a visão de um viajante europeu sobre o Brasil do final do século XIX

O presente artigo trata das visões deixadas a respeito do Brasil pelo viajante italiano Affonso Lomonaco em seu livro Al Brazile. Mostro, que,como seu roteiro de viagem restringiuse somente aos locais aonde a ferrovia chegava, seus relatos a respeito da sociedade brasileira ficaram circunscritos ao que viu nos ambientes urbanos. Também pelo fato de ser europeu de origem citadina, suas impressões aparecem profundamente marcadas por valores burgueses e racistas.

Ensino de ciências e matemática II: temas sobre formação de conceitos

Pós-graduação em Educação para a Ciência - FC

Direito, técnica, imagem: os limites e os fundamentos do humano

Esta coletânea de artigos foi desenvolvida a partir de reflexões produzidas em diferentes edições do Seminário Brasileiro sobre o Pensamento de Jacques Ellul, filósofo e sociólogo francês que discutiu, em mais de 50 livros e centenas de artigos, a condição e o destino do homem na sociedade técnica, termo por ele utilizado para referir-se à sociedade contemporânea. Foram reunidos artigos produzidos por pesquisadores do Brasil, Canadá, França e Inglaterra, com a maior parte dos textos oriundos da pesquisa e das reflexões de alunos, pesquisadores e professores do Programa de Mestrado em Direito da Unesp, campus de Franca. Os artigos foram divididos em duas partes, com a primeira tratando principalmente da ênfase de Ellul na técnica e na tecnologia como os verdadeiros fundamentos do poder na sociedade moderna. Para Ellul, o progresso técnico já teria engendrado um fenômeno de proletarização generalizada, que abrange toda a humanidade e todos os aspectos da vida humana, superando a dimensão puramente econômica. Na segunda parte, os estudos transpassam as questões políticas e desembocam na análise das técnicas de dominação dos corpos e das mentes, buscando aprofundar a perspectiva elluliana diante do Direito e da Bioética, além dos muitos e tortuosos significados da imagem na sociedade atual

Perfil epidemiológico de acidentes com material biológico entre estudantes de medicina em um pronto-socorro cirúrgico

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the accidents with biological material among medical students interning in a trauma emergency room and identify key related situations, attributed causes and prevention. METHODS: we conducted a study with a quantitative approach. Data were collected through a questionnaire applied via internet, with closed, multiple-choice questions regarding accidents with biological material. The sample comprised 100 students. RESULTS: thirty-two had accidents with biological material. Higher-risk activities were local anesthesia (39.47%), suture (18.42%) and needle recapping (15.79%). The main routes of exposure to biological material were the eyes or mucosa, with 34%, and syringe needle puncture, with 45%. After contamination, only 52% reported the accident to the responsible department. CONCLUSION: The main causes of accidents and routes of exposure found may be attributed to several factors, such as lack of training and failure to use personal protective equipment. Educational and preventive actions are extremely important to reduce the incidence of accidents with biological materials and improve the conduct of post-exposure. It is important to understand the main causes attributed and situations related, so as general and effective measures can be applied.

Aplicação de redes NeuroFuzzy ao processamento de peças automotivas por meio de injeção de polímeros

The injection molding of automotive parts is a complex process due to the many non-linear and multivariable phenomena that occur simultaneously. Commercial software applications exist for modeling the parameters of polymer injection but can be prohibitively expensive. It is possible to identify these parameters analytically, but applying classical theories of transport phenomena requires accurate information about the injection machine, product geometry, and process parameters. However, neurofuzzy networks, which achieve a synergy by combining the learning capabilities of an artificial neural network with a fuzzy set's inference mechanism, have shown success in this field. The purpose of this paper was to use a multilayer perceptron artificial neural network and a radial basis function artificial neural network combined with fuzzy sets to produce an inference mechanism that could predict injection mold cycle times. The results confirmed neurofuzzy networks as an effective alternative to solving such problems.

Influence of ovariectomy combined with lack of masticatory force in the evolution of periodontal disease

AIM: To evaluate the influence of ovariectomy combined with lack of masticatory force in the evolution of periodontal disease induced in rats.METHODS: Forty rats were bilaterally ovariectomized and 40 were submitted to sham ovariectomy. Periodontal disease was induced in the mandibular left first molar and the maxillary left first molar was extracted from half of the rats. The rats were randomly euthanized at 3, 7, 14 and 30 days post periodontal disease induction. Serial sections were obtained from the furcation area and stained for histological and histomorphometric analysis. The results of the histomorphometric analysis were statistically analyzed by ANOVA and Tukey tests.RESULTS: The results demonstrated statistically significant differences in the percentage of bone tissue when the variables presence or absence of estrogen (p=0.020) and time of euthanasia (p=0.002) were evaluated. However, the extraction procedure did not significantly affect the percentage of bone tissue (p=0.598).CONCLUSIONS : The bone loss resulting from periodontal disease is increased by estrogen deficiency and varies according to the time course of periodontitis. In contrast, masticatory force does not seem to interfere in bone loss derived from periodontal disease.

Effect of s/g ratio on kraft pulping and ecf bleaching of some poplars and eucalyptus

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Characterization of monocarboxylate transporters (MCTs) expression in soft tissue sarcomas: distinct prognostic impact of MCT1 sub-cellular localization

Background: Soft tissue sarcomas (STSs) are a group of neoplasms, which, despite current therapeutic advances, still confer a poor outcome to half of the patients. As other solid tumors, STSs exhibit high glucose consumption rates, associated with worse prognosis and therapeutic response. As highly glycolytic tumors, we hypothesized that sarcomas should present an increased expression of lactate transporters (MCTs).Methods: Immunohistochemical expression of MCT1, MCT2, MCT4 and CD147 was assessed in a series of 86 STSs and the expression profiles were associated with patients' clinical-pathological parameters.Results: MCT1, MCT4 and CD147 were mainly observed in the plasma membrane of cancer cells (around 60% for MCTs and 40% for CD147), while MCT2 was conspicuously found in the cytoplasm (94.2%). Importantly, we observed MCT1 nuclear expression (32.6%). MCT1 and MCT4, alone or co-expressed with CD147 in the plasma membrane, were associated with poor prognostic variables including high tumor grade, disease progression and shorter overall survival. Conversely, we found MCT1 nuclear expression to be associated with low grade tumors and longer overall survival.Conclusions: The present work represents the first report of MCTs characterization in STSs. We showed the original finding of MCT1 expression in the nucleus. Importantly, opposite biological roles should be behind the dual sub-cellular localization of MCT1, as plasma membrane expression of MCT1 is associated with worse patients' prognosis, while nuclear expression is associated with better prognosis.

Influence of the combination of probiotic cultures during fermentation and storage of fermented milk

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)