989 resultados para 010405 Statistical Theory


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A new questionnaire, the Maternal Mental State Input Inventory (MMSII) was created to measure mothers' preferences for introducing and elaborating on mental states in conversation with their young children. In two studies, the questionnaire was given to mothers of young children, and the children's theory of mind (ToM) development was assessed with standard tasks. In both studies, the questionnaire exhibited good internal reliability, and significant correlations emerged between mothers' self-reported preferences for elaborated, explanatory talk about the mental states and children's theory of mind performance. Further, mothers' conversational preferences, as measured by the MMSII, were the best predictors of children's theory of mind development when relevant control variables were included in the analyses. These results converge with naturalistic observational research that has demonstrated links between mothers' conversational styles and their children's theory of mind. They go further in suggesting that mothers' tendencies toward elaborated, explanatory talk about a range of mental states is particularly beneficial to children's theory of mind development. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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This paper presents a new model based on thermodynamic and molecular interaction between molecules to describe the vapour-liquid phase equilibria and surface tension of pure component. The model assumes that the bulk fluid can be characterised as set of parallel layers. Because of this molecular structure, we coin the model as the molecular layer structure theory (MLST). Each layer has two energetic components. One is the interaction energy of one molecule of that layer with all surrounding layers. The other component is the intra-layer Helmholtz free energy, which accounts for the internal energy and the entropy of that layer. The equilibrium between two separating phases is derived from the minimum of the grand potential, and the surface tension is calculated as the excess of the Helmholtz energy of the system. We test this model with a number of components, argon, krypton, ethane, n-butane, iso-butane, ethylene and sulphur hexafluoride, and the results are very satisfactory. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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We present the quantum theory of the far-off-resonance continuous-wave Raman laser using the Heisenberg-Langevin approach. We show that the simplified quantum Langevin equations for this system are mathematically identical to those of the nondegenerate optical parametric oscillator in the time domain with the following associations: pump pump, Stokes signal, and Raman coherence idler. We derive analytical results for both the steady-state behavior and the time-dependent noise spectra, using standard linearization procedures. In the semiclassical limit, these results match with previous purely semiclassical treatments, which yield excellent agreement with experimental observations. The analytical time-dependent results predict perfect photon statistics conversion from the pump to the Stokes and nonclassical behavior under certain operational conditions.

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We present a theory for the transport of molecules adsorbed in slit and cylindrical nanopores at low density, considering the axial momentum gain of molecules oscillating between diffuse wall reflections. Good agreement with molecular dynamics simulations is obtained over a wide range of pore sizes, including the regime of single-file diffusion where fluid-fluid interactions are shown to have a negligible effect on the collective transport coefficient. We show that dispersive fluid-wall interactions considerably attenuate transport compared to classical hard sphere theory.

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Este artigo ?? uma resenha da literatura sobre o Executivo que discute o impacto dos sistemas parlamentarista e presidencialista na capacidade governamental de formular e implementar pol??ticas p??blicas. Ao longo do texto, busca-se identificar fatores que permitem ou bloqueiam o exerc??cio de uma fun????o coordenadora e unificadora de a????es, analisando a rela????o entre os poderes Executivo e Legislativo, a estrutura do poder Executivo e as rela????es entre o Executivo pol??tico e a burocracia. Os estudos sobre parlamentarismo enfocam: import??ncia dos partidos, papel dos ministros, extens??o do poder do primeiro ministro e papel coletivo do gabinete. J?? os trabalhos sobre presidencialismo v??o de pesquisas sobre o Congresso norte-americano, envolvendo infer??ncias estat??sticas e an??lises baseadas na teoria institucional a estudos de caso sobre a American Politics (presid??ncia e lideran??a). Apesar das diferen??as entre parlamentarismo e presidencialismo, a literatura indica que mecanismos institucionais de controle de agenda produzem os mesmos efeitos nos dois sistemas.

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Os Conselhos Gestores s??o f??runs h??bridos onde se viabiliza a participa????o popular no desenho das pol??ticas p??blicas, nas negocia????es de interesses da coletividade, na elabora????o de programas e projetos sociais e na fiscaliza????o das a????es governamentais. O significado e a dimens??o dos Conselhos para a democracia participativa s??o enormes, justificando a import??ncia da realiza????o deste estudo, que se baseou na an??lise explorat??ria de 12 Conselhos locais do munic??pio mineiro de Vi??osa, com o objetivo de avaliar o desempenho dos mesmos. A avalia????o do desempenho levou em considera????o os mesmos par??metros dimensionais, tanto para a coleta de dados prim??rios quanto para a coleta secund??ria. A coleta de dados prim??rios foi realizada a partir da aplica????o de question??rios semi-estruturados aos presidentes dos Conselhos em an??lise. Utilizou-se o programa SPSS, vers??o 15.0, para an??lise estat??stica das quest??es objetivas dos question??rios e a t??cnica de an??lise de conte??do para exame das quest??es abertas. Ap??s essa etapa, realizou-se um workshop com os presidentes dos Conselhos, visando ?? obten????o de novos dados e informa????es. Os Conselhos municipais analisados apresentaram resultados pouco discrepantes entre a teoria aplicada ao tema e a sua efetiva pr??tica no campo p??blico. Contudo, a pesquisa revelou que o grau de desenvolvimento institucional dos Conselhos n??o ?? homog??neo, ou seja, h?? alguns melhores gestores que outros. A escolha independente e democr??tica dos membros n??o-governamentais dos Conselhos em Vi??osa revelou o seu grau de independ??ncia do Poder Executivo. Por??m, a capacita????o de conselheiros precisa ser implementada para evitar uma desfigura????o dos Conselhos. No que tange ?? governan??a, destacouse em Vi??osa o seu grau e formas de aplicabilidade observadas na gest??o de v??rias pol??ticas. Da mesma forma, foi observado um n??vel de governabilidade que confere legitimidade ??s pol??ticas implementadas. Por fim, verificou-se que a efetividade da accountability societal tem sido instrumentalizada pelos Conselhos no ??mbito das diversas pol??ticas setoriais. J?? os dados secund??rios da an??lise foram obtidos por meio das s??nteses dos relat??rios de fiscaliza????o de munic??pios do Estado de Minas Gerais, realizadas pela Controladoria Geral da Uni??o. Foram identificados todos os registros pertinentes aos Conselhos Gestores Municipais do Estado de Minas Gerais, no per??odo de 2003 a 2006. Verificou-se que os maiores problemas se referem aos Conselhos Municipais de Sa??de e Assist??ncia Social. Entre as in??meras falhas apontadas, destacam-se problemas graves na constitui????o e operacionaliza????o dos Conselhos, resultando na inoper??ncia desses mecanismos nos munic??pios fiscalizados. A avalia????o do desempenho dos Conselhos locais de Vi??osa possibilitou concluir que esses mecanismos apresentaram um desempenho bem satisfat??rio na gest??o e controle das pol??ticas p??blicas no munic??pio.

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This article advances the theoretical integration between securitization theory and the framing approach, resulting in a set of criteria hereby called security framing. It seeks to make a twofold contribution: to sharpen the study of the ideational elements that underlie the construction of threats, and to advance towards a greater assessment of the audience's preferences. The case study under examination is the 2011 military intervention of the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council in Bahrain. The security framing of this case will help illuminate the dynamics at play in one of the most important recent events in Gulf politics.

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This work demonstrates that the theoretical framework of complex networks typically used to study systems such as social networks or the World Wide Web can be also applied to material science, allowing deeper understanding of fundamental physical relationships. In particular, through the application of the network theory to carbon nanotubes or vapour-grown carbon nanofiber composites, by mapping fillers to vertices and edges to the gap between fillers, the percolation threshold has been predicted and a formula that relates the composite conductance to the network disorder has been obtained. The theoretical arguments are validated by experimental results from the literature.

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A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.

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A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.

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In the 70s, a new line of research focused on the study of the influence of the audit report on the decision process of investors, financial analysts and credit analysts. Notwithstanding the numerous studies that have been carried out, results have not been consistent. Given the above, and considering the lack, in Portugal, of a research of this nature, it seems urgent to carry out a study that allows the analysis of the use of the audit report, as well as its influence on the decision making process of Portuguese stakeholders. For that purpose, in the light of the positivist research paradigm, a questionnaire was designed, which was administered by mail and on the Survey Monkey platform to a sample of institutional investors, financial analysts and credit analysts. The statistical analysis of the data obtained was undertaken with resource to the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences and SmartPLS 2.0. Corroborating the literature review and the assumptions of the Agency Theory and the Stakeholder Theory, used in the theoretical framework of analysis, empirical evidence has shown that the audit report influences the decision of institutional investors, financial analysts and credit analysts, and that the opinion expressed in that document is the most determinant factor of this influence. In addition to this factor, it was found that the degree of utilization of the audit report, as well as the value ascribed to this document, determine its influence in the decision process of research groups studied. Only in the case of institutional investors, the results did not reveal a correlation between the utility ascribed to the audit report and the influence of this document in their decision making process. In turn, the statistical inference of the model explaining the degree of use of the audit report revealed that it is conditioned by the perceived quality of the information enclosed in the audit report, the utility assigned to the audit report on the decision process, as well as the relevance of the other sources of information used by stakeholders. Therefore, this study allowed proving the importance of the audit report to its users. As a result, we believe to have filled a gap in national literature and to have contributed to the enhancement of international literature. The importance that this document has for the development of any country is, therefore, shown, and it is urgent to maintain rigor in the selection of its staff, in the development of its standards, and especially in the development of audits. Moreover, we also consider that this research may contribute to the improvement of the audit report, insofar as it will help professional bodies to understand the information needs and perceptions of stakeholders.

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