Model choice problems using approximate Bayesian computation with applications to pathogen transmission data sets

Analytically or computationally intractable likelihood functions can arise in complex statistical inferential problems making them inaccessible to standard Bayesian inferential methods. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods address such inferential problems by replacing direct likelihood evaluations with repeated sampling from the model. ABC methods have been predominantly applied to parameter estimation problems and less to model choice problems due to the added difficulty of handling multiple model spaces. The ABC algorithm proposed here addresses model choice problems by extending Fearnhead and Prangle (2012, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 74, 1–28) where the posterior mean of the model parameters estimated through regression formed the summary statistics used in the discrepancy measure. An additional stepwise multinomial logistic regression is performed on the model indicator variable in the regression step and the estimated model probabilities are incorporated into the set of summary statistics for model choice purposes. A reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo step is also included in the algorithm to increase model diversity for thorough exploration of the model space. This algorithm was applied to a validating example to demonstrate the robustness of the algorithm across a wide range of true model probabilities. Its subsequent use in three pathogen transmission examples of varying complexity illustrates the utility of the algorithm in inferring preference of particular transmission models for the pathogens.

Treatment for prevention of HIV transmission in a localised epidemic : the case for South Australia

Background: Discussion is currently taking place among international HIV/AIDS groups around increasing HIV testing and initiating earlier use of antiretroviral therapy (ART) among people diagnosed with HIV as a method to reduce the spread of HIV. In this study, we explore the expected epidemiological impact of this strategy in a small population in which HIV transmission is predominantly confined to men who have sex with men (MSM). Methods: A deterministic mathematical transmission model was constructed to investigate the impacts of strategies that increase testing and treatment rates, and their likely potential to mitigate HIV epidemics among MSM. Our novel model distinguishes men in the population who are more easily accessible to prevention campaigns through engagement with the gay community from men who are not. This model is applied to the population of MSM in South Australia. Results: Our model-based findings suggest that increasing testing rates alone will have minimal impact on reducing the expected number of infections compared to current conditions. However, in combination with increases in treatment coverage, this strategy could lead to a 59–68% reduction in the number of HIV infections over the next 5 years. Targeting men who are socially engaged with the gay community would result in the majority of potential reductions in incidence, with only minor improvements possible by reaching all other MSM. Conclusions: Investing in strategies that will achieve higher coverage and earlier initiation of treatment to reduce infectiousness of HIV-infected individuals could be an effective strategy for reducing incidence in a population of MSM.

Spatial and temporal patterns of locally-acquired dengue transmission in northern Queensland, Australia, 1993-2012

BACKGROUND: Dengue has been a major public health concern in Australia since it re-emerged in Queensland in 1992-1993. We explored spatio-temporal characteristics of locally-acquired dengue cases in northern tropical Queensland, Australia during the period 1993-2012. METHODS: Locally-acquired notified cases of dengue were collected for northern tropical Queensland from 1993 to 2012. Descriptive spatial and temporal analyses were conducted using geographic information system tools and geostatistical techniques. RESULTS: 2,398 locally-acquired dengue cases were recorded in northern tropical Queensland during the study period. The areas affected by the dengue cases exhibited spatial and temporal variation over the study period. Notified cases of dengue occurred more frequently in autumn. Mapping of dengue by statistical local areas (census units) reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation over time and place. Statistically significant differences in dengue incidence rates among males and females (with more cases in females) (χ(2) = 15.17, d.f.  = 1, p<0.01). Differences were observed among age groups, but these were not statistically significant. There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of dengue incidence for the four sub-periods, with the Moran's I statistic ranging from 0.011 to 0.463 (p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the northern Queensland. CONCLUSIONS: Tropical areas are potential high-risk areas for mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue. This study demonstrated that the locally-acquired dengue cases have exhibited a spatial and temporal variation over the past twenty years in northern tropical Queensland, Australia. Therefore, this study provides an impetus for further investigation of clusters and risk factors in these high-risk areas.

Optimal HMM filtering and decision feedback equalisation for differential encoded transmission systems

In this paper conditional hidden Markov model (HMM) filters and conditional Kalman filters (KF) are coupled together to improve demodulation of differential encoded signals in noisy fading channels. We present an indicator matrix representation for differential encoded signals and the optimal HMM filter for demodulation. The filter requires O(N3) calculations per time iteration, where N is the number of message symbols. Decision feedback equalisation is investigated via coupling the optimal HMM filter for estimating the message, conditioned on estimates of the channel parameters, and a KF for estimating the channel states, conditioned on soft information message estimates. The particular differential encoding scheme examined in this paper is differential phase shift keying. However, the techniques developed can be extended to other forms of differential modulation. The channel model we use allows for multiplicative channel distortions and additive white Gaussian noise. Simulation studies are also presented.

La Niña : we knew it was coming, and it’s not going away

"The major La Niña climate event responsible for record flooding in Queensland  - and the largest ever cyclone to hit Australia in Yasi  —  is not over yet according to a senior climatologist at Britain’s Met office."

Weather variability and influenza A (H7N9) transmission in Shanghai, China: A Bayesian spatial analysis

Abstract Background A novel avian influenza A (H7N9) virus was first found in humans in Shanghai, and infected over 433 patients in China. To date, very little is known about the spatiotemporal variability or environmental drivers of the risk of H7N9 infection. This study explored the spatial and temporal variation of H7N9 infection and assessed the effects of temperature and rainfall on H7N9 incidence. Methods A Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) model was used to assess the spatiotemporal distribution of the risk of H7N9 infection in Shanghai, by district and fortnight for the period 19th February–14th April 2013. Data on daily laboratory-confirmed H7N9 cases, and weather variability including temperature (°C) and rainfall (mm) were obtained from the Chinese Information System for Diseases Control and Prevention and Chinese Meteorological Data Sharing Service System, respectively, and aggregated by fortnight. Results High spatial variations in the H7N9 risk were mainly observed in the east and centre of Shanghai municipality. H7N9 incidence rate was significantly associated with fortnightly mean temperature (Relative Risk (RR): 1.54; 95% credible interval (CI): 1.22–1.94) and fortnightly mean rainfall (RR: 2.86; 95% CI: 1.47–5.56). Conclusion There was a substantial variation in the spatiotemporal distribution of H7N9 infection across different districts in Shanghai. Optimal temperature and rainfall may be one of the driving forces for H7N9.

Permanent shift: the topology of Didier Vermeiren's Cariatide à la Pierre

Photographic documentation of sculpture produces significant consequences for the way in which sculptural space is conceived. When viewed as discrete mediums the interaction of the photograph and its sculptural subject is always framed by notions of loss. However, when taken as a composite system, the sculpture-photograph proposes a new ontology of space. In place of the fixity of medium, we can observe a topology at play: a theory drawn from mathematics in which space is understood not as a static field but in terms of properties of connectedness, movement and differentiation. Refracted through the photographic medium, sculpture becomes not a field of fixed points in space, but rather as a fluid set of relations - a continuous sequence of multiple ‘surfaces’, a network of shifting views. This paper will develop a topological account of studio practice through an examination of the work of the contemporary Belgian sculptor Didier Vermeiren (b. 1951). Since the 1980s, Vermeiren has made extensive use of photography in his sculptural practice. By analysing a series of iterations of his work Cariatide à la Pierre (1997-1998), this paper proposes that Vermeiren’s use of photography reveals patterns of connection that expand and complicate the language of sculpture, while also emphasising the broader topology of the artist’s practice as a network of ‘backward glances’ to previous works from the artist’s oeuvre and the art-historical canon. In this context, photography is not simply a method of documentation, but rather a means of revealing the intrinsic condition of sculpture as medium shaped by dynamic patterns of connection and change. In Vermeiren’s work the sculpture-photograph, has a composite identity that exceeds straightforward categories of medium. In their place, we can observe a practice based upon the complex interactions of objects whose ontology is always underpinned by a certain contingency. It is in this fundamental mobility, that the topology of Vermeiren’s practice can be said to rest.

Devenir plurilingue : la perspective des littératies multiples

Abstract - English Multiple literacies refers to reading, reading the world and self. This article proposes an understanding of reading that goes beyond its definition in psychology and applied linguistics. This longitudinal project is interested in a conceptualisation of what reading is, how it functions and what it produces in becoming multilingual. Reading is explored through the lens of an empirical study involving five female pupils from senior Kindergarten to Grade 3 observed and interviewed in relation to activities at school and at home. The study took place in Ottawa schools where French is the sole language of instruction. Reading in the context of multiple literacies is conceptualised to disrupt /deterritorialise and to be immanent, offering the potentiality to go beyond what is to what could be. Becoming multilingual is a continuous movement involving networks of rhizomatic connections and reading the world and self. Résumé - Francais Les littératies multiples se réfèrent à la lecture, la lecture du monde et la lecture de soi. Cet article propose une compréhension de la lecture qui dépasse sa définition usuelle en psychologie et en linguistique appliquée. Ce projet longitudinal porte sur la conceptualisation de la lecture, son fonctionnement et ce qu’elle produit dans le devenir plurilingue. La lecture est examinée selon l’optique d’une étude empirique durant laquelle cinq écolières du jardin d’enfants à la 3e année étaient observées et interviewées par rapport à des activités à l’école et à la maison. L’étude a eu lieu dans des écoles d’Ottawa dont la seule langue d’enseignement est le français. Dans le contexte des littératies multiples, la lecture est conceptualisée comme étant perturbatrice/déterritorialisante et immanente. Elle offre la potentialité d’aller au-delà de ce qui est vers ce qui pourrait être. Devenir plurilingue est un mouvement continu faisant appel à des réseaux de connexions rhizomatiques et à la lecture du monde et de soi.

Broadening the perspective on the airborne transmission of respiratory infection

Airborne bioaerosols are becoming increasingly recognized as a potential route of transmission for the spread of bacterial and viral respiratory tract infections.

Efectividad clínica de la intervención terapéutica sobre la mano con realidad virtual en sujetos hemipléjicos: revisión sistemática

Objetivo Revisar de forma sistemática y realizar una evaluación critica de las diferentes publicaciones existentes sobre el uso de la realidad virtual como elemento rehabilitador en la mano. Estrategias de búsqueda Se ha realizado una búsqueda en la base de datos Medline completada con búsquedas en Google Schoolar. Se ha limitado la búsqueda a 10 años de extensión, idiomas: inglés y español. Selección de estudios: se ha centrado sobre aquellos artículos relacionados con la realidad virtual y la rehabilitación funcional de la mano en el accidente cerebrovascular. Síntesis de resultados Debido a la falta de homogeneidad, no ha sido posible evaluar metodológicamente mediante instrumento Caspe. Se detectaron 200 artículos de los cuales 12 cumplen los criterios de selección de los mismos. Dichos artículos han sido agrupados en relación con diferentes criterios como son: tipo de estudio, sistema de evaluación utilizado, periféricos usados o resultados obtenidos entre otros. Conclusiones No se ha obtenido una homogeneidad conjunta sobre los artículos, por ello se debe continuar realizando avances en este ámbito. A pesar de ello, los entornos de realidad virtual pueden ser un instrumento válido para la recuperación funcional de la mano en los accidentes cerebrovasculares, no siendo aptos como elemento único rehabilitador. Abstract in English Objective To make a systematic review and critical assessment of the different existing publications on the use of virtual reality as an element in rehabilitation of the hand. Search Method A search was made in the Medline database completed with searches in Google Schoolar. The search was limited to a period of ten years, and English and Spanish languages. Study selection The study was focused on those articles related to virtual reality and the functional rehabilitation of the hand in stroke. Synthesis of results It was not possible to perform a methodological evaluation using the Caspe instrument due to lack of homogeneity. Two hundred 200 articles were found. Of these, 12 met the criteria for their selection. These articles were grouped in relation to different criteria such as: type of study, assessment system used, hardware used or outcomes results obtained, among others. Conclusions Joint homogeneity was not obtained for the articles. Therefore, progress must still be made in this area. In spite of this, virtual reality environments can be a valid tool for functional recovery of the hand in strokes but they are not adequate for use as a single rehabilitative treatment element.

Contribución de la fuerza y el dolor en la función del paciente con artrosis trapecio metacarpiana. Estudio transversal

Objetivo Establecer una posible relación entre la fuerza (Jamar), el dolor (EVA) y la capacidad funcional referida por el paciente (DASH) determinando en qué grado influyen unas en otras. Estudio observacional transversal analítico. Participantes Muestra de 72 pacientes que presentaban una artrosis trapecio metacarpiana grado 2-3 de Eaton. Los pacientes fueron reclutados cuando acudían a la Unidad de Cirugía de mano. Método Se realizaron mediciones de fuerza de agarre, pinza, valoración del dolor y funcionalidad, y se establecieron las correlaciones entre cada una de ellas. Resultados El modelo más significativo para la función (R2 =0.83) incluye la variable dolor y la fuerza. Pero es la fuerza punta contra punta la que presenta una mayor correlación con el cuestionario DASH (B-estandarizado: –57). Respecto al dolor, influye en todas las mediciones de fuerza realizadas con el dinamómetro, siendo también la fuerza de la pinza punta contra punta la que presenta una mayor correlación. Conclusiones Los hallazgos corroboran que existe una correlación significativa entre la función referida por el paciente y variables que podemos medir en consulta, como la fuerza del puño y la pinza. Pero también esta correlación es significativa entre las variables función y dolor entre sí, pero es la pinza punta contra punta la que presenta una mayor asociación con el cuestionario DASH. Abstract in English Objective To assess the relationship between muscle strength (Jama), and pain (VAS) levels with hand function (DASH) in patients with trapeziometarcapal osteoarthritis. Cross-sectional study. Participants Sample of 72 patients with osteoarthritis stage 2-3 (Eaton) and trapeziometacarpal osteoarthritis. Patients were recruited when they came to the Hand Surgery Unit. Method Grip strength, pinch, pain and hand function were measured, and correlation and regression coefficients between them were obtained. Results For function, the most significant model (R2 = 0.83) included pain and strength. But it is tip to tip pinch force which has a stronger relationship with DASH (Standardized B: –57) questionnaire. Pain also influenced strength measured with the dynamometer but it was tip to tip pinch force that was the most affected. Conclusions Findings confirm that there is a significant correlation between function referred by the patient and variables that can be measured in the clinic such as grip strength and pinch. The correlation between pain intensity and function was also significant, but tip to tip pinch strength had the greatest impact on the function.

Etapas del cambio en personas inactivas tras un programa de promoción de la actividad física en Atención Primaria

Objetivo El objetivo del estudio fue evaluar las Etapas del cambio en relación con la actividad física y el estado de salud general entre personas que participaron en un Programa de promoción de la actividad física (PPAF) de 12 semanas frente a un grupo control. Diseño Ensayo clínico aleatorizado. Participantes Noventa y ocho personas inactivas de ambos sexos con una edad media de 62,82 años procedentes de 2 centros de Atención Primaria del Distrito Sanitario Costa del Sol. Intervención Un PPAF organizado en grupos y siguiendo los criterios del Colegio Americano de Medicina del Deporte, 2 sesiones semanales de 60 min durante 12 semanas. Mediciones principales La variable principal de resultado fue resistencia al cambio en relación con la actividad física. La variable secundaria fue el estado de salud general (componentes físicos y mentales), determinado con el cuestionario de salud general SF12. Resultados Se encontraron diferencias significativas en las etapas del cambio a favor del grupo experimental (p < 0,05). No se encontraron diferencias estadísticamente significativas entre grupos después de la intervención en el estado general de salud. Conclusión Las etapas del cambio se modificaron en las personas inactivas que realizaron el PPAF en Atención Primaria. Futuros estudios son necesarios para identificar qué factores del entorno de los participantes influyen en la resistencia al cambio de la actividad física. Abstract Objective This study has aimed to evaluate the stages of change in relation to physical activity and overall health status among persons who participated in a 12-week Physical activity promotion program (PAPP) compared to a control group. Design Randomized clinical trial. Participants The study included 98 inactive persons of both sexes with a mean age of 62.82 years from 2 of Primary Care Centers of the Malaga Health Care District. Interventions A PAPP organized in groups according to the American College of Sports Medicine criteria including two weekly sessions of 60 minutes each for 3 months. Main measures The primary outcome was to assess resistance to change in relation to physical activity. The secondary variable was overall health (physical and mental components) determined with the SF12 general health questionnaire. Results Significant differences were found in the stages of change (P<.05). There were no significant differences found in general health status improvement in regards to the initial assessment. Conclusion The stages of change were modified in the inactive persons who carried out the PAPP in Primary Care. Future studies are needed to identify which environmental factors influence the resistance to change in physical activity of the participants.

Volatility transmission in global financial markets

As financial markets have become increasingly integrated internationally, the topic of volatility transmission across these markets has become more important. This thesis investigates how the volatility patterns of the world's main financial centres differ across foreign exchange, equity, and bond markets.

Spatiotemporal transmission dynamics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China, 2005-2012

Background Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a rodent-borne disease caused by many serotypes of hantaviruses. In China, HFRS has been recognized as a severe public health problem with 90% of the total reported cases in the world. This study describes the spatiotemporal dynamics of HFRS cases in China and identifies the regions, time, and populations at highest risk, which could help the planning and implementation of key preventative measures. Methods Data on all reported HFRS cases at the county level from January 2005 to December 2012 were collected from Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Geographic Information System-based spatiotemporal analyses including Local Indicators of Spatial Association and Kulldorff's space-time scan statistic were performed to detect local high-risk space-time clusters of HFRS in China. In addition, cases from high-risk and low-risk counties were compared to identify significant demographic differences. Results A total of 100,868 cases were reported during 2005–2012 in mainland China. There were significant variations in the spatiotemporal dynamics of HFRS. HFRS cases occurred most frequently in June, November, and December. There was a significant positive spatial autocorrelation of HFRS incidence during the study periods, with Moran's I values ranging from 0.46 to 0.56 (P<0.05). Several distinct HFRS cluster areas were identified, mainly concentrated in northeastern, central, and eastern of China. Compared with cases from low-risk areas, a higher proportion of cases were younger, non-farmer, and floating residents in high-risk counties. Conclusions This study identified significant space-time clusters of HFRS in China during 2005–2012 indicating that preventative strategies for HFRS should be particularly focused on the northeastern, central, and eastern of China to achieve the most cost-effective outcomes.