Towards a theory of the credit-risk balance sheet

This article designs what it calls a Credit-Risk Balance Sheet (the risk being that of default by customers), a tool which, in principle, can contribute to revealing, controlling and managing the bad debt risk arising from a company¿s commercial credit, whose amount can represent a significant proportion of both its current and total assets.To construct it, we start from the duality observed in any credit transaction of this nature, whose basic identity can be summed up as Credit = Risk. ¿Credit¿ is granted by a company to its customer, and can be ranked by quality (we suggest the credit scoring system) and ¿risk¿ can either be assumed (interiorised) by the company itself or transferred to third parties (exteriorised).What provides the approach that leads to us being able to talk with confidence of a real Credit-Risk Balance Sheet with its methodological robustness is that the dual vision of the credit transaction is not, as we demonstrate, merely a classificatory duality (a double risk-credit classification of reality) but rather a true causal relationship, that is, a risk-credit causal duality.Once said Credit-Risk Balance Sheet (which bears a certain structural similarity with the classic net asset balance sheet) has been built, and its methodological coherence demonstrated, its properties ¿static and dynamic¿ are studied.Analysis of the temporal evolution of the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet and of its applications will be the object of subsequent works.

Towards a theory of the credit-risk balance sheet (II). The evolution of its structure

This article has an immediate predecessor, upon which it is based and with which readers must necessarily be familiar: Towards a Theory of the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet (Vallverdú, Somoza and Moya, 2006). The Balance Sheet is conceptualised on the basis of the duality of a credit-based transaction; it deals with its theoretical foundations, providing evidence of a causal credit-risk duality, that is, a true causal relationship; its characteristics, properties and its static and dynamic characteristics are analyzed. This article, which provides a logical continuation to the previous one, studies the evolution of the structure of the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet as a consequence of a business¿s dynamics in the credit area. Given the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet of a company at any given time, it attempts to estimate, by means of sequential analysis, its structural evolution, showing its usefulness in the management and control of credit and risk. To do this, it bases itself, with the necessary adaptations, on the by-now classic works of Palomba and Cutolo. The establishment of the corresponding transformation matrices allows one to move from an initial balance sheet structure to a final, future one, to understand its credit-risk situation trends, as well as to make possible its monitoring and control, basic elements in providing support for risk management.

Towards a theory of the credit-risk balance sheet

This article designs what it calls a Credit-Risk Balance Sheet (the risk being that of default by customers), a tool which, in principle, can contribute to revealing, controlling and managing the bad debt risk arising from a company¿s commercial credit, whose amount can represent a significant proportion of both its current and total assets.To construct it, we start from the duality observed in any credit transaction of this nature, whose basic identity can be summed up as Credit = Risk. ¿Credit¿ is granted by a company to its customer, and can be ranked by quality (we suggest the credit scoring system) and ¿risk¿ can either be assumed (interiorised) by the company itself or transferred to third parties (exteriorised).What provides the approach that leads to us being able to talk with confidence of a real Credit-Risk Balance Sheet with its methodological robustness is that the dual vision of the credit transaction is not, as we demonstrate, merely a classificatory duality (a double risk-credit classification of reality) but rather a true causal relationship, that is, a risk-credit causal duality.Once said Credit-Risk Balance Sheet (which bears a certain structural similarity with the classic net asset balance sheet) has been built, and its methodological coherence demonstrated, its properties ¿static and dynamic¿ are studied.Analysis of the temporal evolution of the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet and of its applications will be the object of subsequent works.

Towards a theory of the credit-risk balance sheet (II). The evolution of its structure

This article has an immediate predecessor, upon which it is based and with which readers must necessarily be familiar: Towards a Theory of the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet (Vallverdú, Somoza and Moya, 2006). The Balance Sheet is conceptualised on the basis of the duality of a credit-based transaction; it deals with its theoretical foundations, providing evidence of a causal credit-risk duality, that is, a true causal relationship; its characteristics, properties and its static and dynamic characteristics are analyzed. This article, which provides a logical continuation to the previous one, studies the evolution of the structure of the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet as a consequence of a business¿s dynamics in the credit area. Given the Credit-Risk Balance Sheet of a company at any given time, it attempts to estimate, by means of sequential analysis, its structural evolution, showing its usefulness in the management and control of credit and risk. To do this, it bases itself, with the necessary adaptations, on the by-now classic works of Palomba and Cutolo. The establishment of the corresponding transformation matrices allows one to move from an initial balance sheet structure to a final, future one, to understand its credit-risk situation trends, as well as to make possible its monitoring and control, basic elements in providing support for risk management.

Effect of physical activity during pregnancy on mode of delivery.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of structured physical exercise programs during pregnancy on the course of labor and delivery. STUDY DESIGN: We conducted a systematic review and metaanalysis using the following data sources: Medline and The Cochrane Library. In our study, we used randomized controlled trials (RCT) that evaluated the effects of exercise programs during pregnancy on labor and delivery. The results are summarized as relative risks. RESULTS: In the 16 RCTs that were included there were 3359 women. Women in exercise groups had a significantly lower risk of cesarean delivery (relative risk, 0.85; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73-0.99). Birthweight was not significantly reduced in exercise groups. The risk of instrumental delivery was similar among groups (relative risk, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.82-1.22). Data on Apgar score, episiotomy, epidural anesthesia, perineal tear, length of labor, and induction of labor were insufficient to draw conclusions. With the use of data from 11 studies (1668 women), our analysis showed that women in the exercise groups gained significantly less weight than women in control groups (mean difference, -1.13 kg; 95% CI, -1.49 to -0.78). CONCLUSION: Structured physical exercise during pregnancy reduces the risk of cesarean delivery. This is an important finding to convince women to be active during their pregnancy and should lead the physician to recommend physical exercise to pregnant women, when this is not contraindicated.

Correction of through-plane deformation artifacts in stimulated echo acquisition mode cardiac imaging.

Attempts to use a stimulated echo acquisition mode (STEAM) in cardiac imaging are impeded by imaging artifacts that result in signal attenuation and nulling of the cardiac tissue. In this work, we present a method to reduce this artifact by acquiring two sets of stimulated echo images with two different demodulations. The resulting two images are combined to recover the signal loss and weighted to compensate for possible deformation-dependent intensity variation. Numerical simulations were used to validate the theory. Also, the proposed correction method was applied to in vivo imaging of normal volunteers (n = 6) and animal models with induced infarction (n = 3). The results show the ability of the method to recover the lost myocardial signal and generate artifact-free black-blood cardiac images.

Microscopic description of the twist mode in normal and superfluid trapped Fermi gases

We investigate the "twist" mode (rotation of the upper against the lower hemisphere) of a dilute atomic Fermi gas in a spherical trap. The normal and superfluid phases are considered. The linear response to this external perturbation is calculated within the microscopic Hartree-Fock-Bogoliubov approach. In the normal phase the excitation spectrum is concentrated in a rather narrow peak very close to the trapping frequency. In the superfluid phase the strength starts to be damped and fragmented and the collectivity of the mode is progressively lost when the temperature decreases. In the weak-pairing regime some reminiscence of the collective motion still exists, whereas in the strong-pairing regime the twist mode is completely washed out. The disappearance of the twist mode in the strong-pairing regime with decreasing temperature is interpreted in the framework of the two-fluid model.

Scaling calculation of isoscalar giant resonances in relativistic Thomas-Fermi theory

We derive analytical expressions for the excitation energy of the isoscalar giant monopole and quadrupole resonances in finite nuclei, by using the scaling method and the extended ThomasFermi approach to relativistic mean-field theory. We study the ability of several nonlinear σω parameter sets of common use in reproducing the experimental data. For monopole oscillations the calculations agree better with experiment when the nuclear matter incompressibility of the relativistic interaction lies in the range 220260 MeV. The breathing-mode energies of the scaling method compare satisfactorily with those obtained in relativistic RPA and time-dependent mean-field calculations. For quadrupole oscillations, all the analyzed nonlinear parameter sets reproduce the empirical trends reasonably well.

Sediment Control in Bridge Waterways, February 1990

The objective of this study was to develop guidelines for use of the Iowa Vanes technique for sediment control in bridge waterways. Iowa Vanes are small flow-training structures (foils) designed to modify the near-bed flow pattern and redistribute flow and sediment transport within the channel cross section. The structures are installed at an angleof attack of 15 - 25' with the flow, and their initial height is 0.2 - 0.5 times water depth at design stage. The vanes function by generating secondary circulation in the flow. The circulation alters magnitude and direction of the bed shear stress and causes a reduction in velocity and sediment transport in the vane controlled area. As a result, the river bed aggrades in the vane controlled area and degrades outside. This report summarizes the basic theory, describes results of laboratory and field tests, and presents the resulting design procedure. Design graphs have been developed based on the theory. The graphs are entered with basic flow variables and desired bed topography. The output is vane layout and design. The procedure is illustrated with two numerical examples prepared with data that are typical for many rivers in Iowa and the midwest. The report also discusses vane material. In most applications, the vane height will be between 30% and 50% of bankfull flow depth and the vane length will be two to three times vane height. The vanes will be placed in arrays along the bank of the river. Each array will contain two or more vanes. The vanes in an array will be spaced laterally a distance of two to three times vane height. The streamwise spacing between the arrays will be 15 to 30 times vane height, and the vane-to-bank distance will be three to four times vane height. The study also show that the first (most upstream) array in the vane system must be located a distance of at least three array spacings upstream from the bridge, and there must be at least three arrays in the system for it to be effective at and downstream from the third array.

Periodic forcing of scroll rings and control of Winfree turbulence in excitable media

By simulations of the Barkley model, action of uniform periodic nonresonant forcing on scroll rings and wave turbulence in three-dimensional excitable media is investigated. Sufficiently strong rapid forcing converts expanding scroll rings into the collapsing ones and suppresses the Winfree turbulence caused by the negative tension of wave filaments. Slow strong forcing has an opposite effect, leading to expansion of scroll rings and induction of the turbulence. These effects are explained in the framework of the phenomenological kinematic theory of scroll waves.

AT-RISK ALCOHOL USE IN YOUNG ADULTS - EFFECTIVENESS AND MECHANISMS OF BRIEF MOTIVATIONAL INTERVENTION AS A PRIMARY AND SECONDARY PREVENTION MEASURE

SummaryThe alcohol use of adolescents and young adults is one of the world's most important and costliest health problems. Particularly, binge drinking (i.e. drinking an important amount of alcohol in one occasion) among young people increase the risk of detrimental consequences such as blackouts, injuries, at-risk sexual behaviors, involvement in violent acts, academic failure, and suicide attempts. In countries with mandatory conscription mechanisms, such as Switzerland, the army provides a unique opportunity to reach a large portion of this high risk population. We used this sample to evaluate the prevalence of binge drinking among young men, to test the efficacy of brief motivational interventions (BMI) as a primary and secondary preventive measure, and to examine the mechanisms underlying BMI in this age group.We showed that binge drinking among young French-speaking Swiss men is less of an exception than it is the norm. Of those using alcohol, 75.5% had a binge drinking episode at least monthly, and 69.3% of all consumption reported in a one-week diary was due to binge drinking days.We used two different inclusion modes to evaluate the success of alcohol BMI. In the first randomized controlled trial, inclusion relied on a random selection of conscripts. BMI efficacy was evaluated in a sample of conscripts who visited the army recruitment centre that is potentially generalizable to the entire population. In the second randomized controlled trial, we included subjects voluntarily participating in BMI. This venue might be more realistic for young adults; it is more akin to the MI spirit, in which it is crucial for individuals to control their own decisions.Regarding BMI efficacy as a secondary prevention measure (i.e. to help decrease alcohol use among at-risk drinkers, defined here as those having a binge drinking episode at least monthly), it was effective among randomly selected at-risk drinkers, whereas it was not effective among at-risk drinkers who voluntarily showed up. Individuals who showed interest in BMI had more severe patterns of alcohol use, which may have made change more difficult and calls for treatment that is more intensive. BMI demonstrated a 20% reduction in weekly alcohol use among randomly selected participants, indicating potential interest in BMI implementation within similar community settings.Regarding BMI efficacy as a primary prevention measure (i.e. to help maintain low levels of use among low-risk drinkers), it had significant protective effects among low-risk drinkers voluntarily showing up whereas it was not effective among low-risk drinkers randomly selected. This suggests that BMI might help young individuals keep their drinking at low levels, especially when they are interested in discussing their alcohol use. Therefore, BMI has potentially promising uses in primary prevention efforts. The content of these interventions for low-risk drinkers who do not seek BMI on their own should be further evaluated.BMI mechanisms were addressed since little is known about exactly which elements of it work, or which of the counselor and subject communication behaviors are most effective in triggering behavior changes. The causal chain hypothesis developed in the motivational interviewing (MI) theory was followed, and it was found that counselor behaviors consistent with the MI approach (MICO) were significantly more likely to be followed by participant language in favor of change (change talk, CT), while behaviors inconsistent with MI (MIIN) were significantly less likely to do so. Several CT dimensions measured during BMI (particularly Ability, Desire, and Need to change) were predictive of change in alcohol use. Our findings lend strong support for the use of MICO behaviors and the avoidance of MIIN behaviors in eliciting CT, and point out that particular attention should be paid to the utterances in several sub-dimensions of CT and to the strength of expression, since these are good indicators of potential actual behavior change in future.RésuméLa consommation d'alcool chez les adolescents et les jeunes adultes est un des problèmes de santé les plus importants et les plus coûteux dans le monde. En particulier, les consommations importantes d'alcool en une occasion (binge drinking) parmi les jeunes adultes ont été liées à des conséquences telles que pertes de connaissance, accidents et blessures, comportements sexuels à risque, violences, difficultés scolaires et tentatives de suicide. Les pays qui, comme la Suisse, connaissent un processus de recrutement obligatoire pour l'armée offrent une opportunité unique d'atteindre une large portion de cette population à hauts risques. Nous avons utilisé cet échantillon pour évaluer la prévalence du binge drinking parmi les jeunes hommes, pour tester l'efficacité de l'intervention brève motivationnelle (IBM) comme mesure de prévention primaire et secondaire, et pour examiner les mécanismes sous-tendant ce type d'interventions.La première partie de cette étude montre que le binge drinking est moins une exception que la norme parmi les jeunes hommes suisses francophones. 75.5% des personnes consommant de l'alcool avaient au moins un épisode de binge drinking par mois et 69.3% du total des boissons alcoolisées reportées comme consommation de la semaine précédant le questionnaire avaient été consommées lors d'épisodes de binge drinking.Pour évaluer l'efficacité de l'IBM dans ce cadre, nous avons utilisé deux modes d'inclusion. Dans une première étude randomisée contrôlée, nous avons inclus des personnes sélectionnées au hasard parmi toutes celles se présentant au centre de recrutement, créant ainsi un groupe potentiellement représentatif de l'ensemble du collectif. Dans la deuxième étude randomisée contrôlée, nous avons inclus des sujets se présentant volontairement pour recevoir une IBM, prendre des volontaires pouvant être plus proche de la réalité et plus proche de l'esprit motivationnel dans lequel il est crucial que l'individu contrôle ses décisions.En regardant l'IBM comme mesure de prévention secondaire (c'est-à-dire aider à diminuer la consommation d'alcool chez les consommateurs à risque, définis ici comme au moins un épisode de binge drinking par mois), l'IBM était efficace lorsque les participants étaient inclus au hasard et inefficace lorsqu'ils étaient volontaires. Les jeunes hommes volontaires pour un IBM avaient un mode de consommation particulièrement sévère qui pourrait être plus difficile à changer et nécessiter un traitement plus intensif. Parmi les personnes sélectionnées au hasard, l'IBM permettait une diminution de 20% de la consommation hebdomadaire d'alcool, montrant l'intérêt potentiel d'une implémentation de ce type de mesures dans des contextes communautaires similaires.En ce qui concerne l'IBM comme mesure de prévention primaire (c'est-à-dire aider à maintenir une consommation à bas risque chez les consommateurs à bas risque), l'IBM avaient un effet protectif significatif parmi les jeunes hommes volontaires pour une IBM, mais pas d'effet chez ceux sélectionnés au hasard. Ces résultats suggèrent que l'IBM pourrait aider de jeunes personnes à maintenir un niveau de consommation à bas risque si celles-ci s'intéressent à discuter cette consommation et aurait ainsi un potentiel intéressant comme mesure de prévention primaire. Le contenu de l'IBM pour des consommateurs à bas risque non-volontaires pour une IBM devra encore être évalué.Nous avons ensuite examiné les mécanismes de l'IBM car son fonctionnement est encore peu expliqué et les comportements de l'intervenant et du sujet les plus à même de provoquer le changement ne sont pas bien définis. En suivant l'hypothèse d'une chaine causale développée dans la littérature de l'entretien motivationnel (EM), nous avons pu montrer qu'un discours en faveur du changement chez le sujet était plus probable après des comportements de l'intervenant recommandés dans l'EM et moins probable après des comportements à éviter dans l'EM ; et que plusieurs dimensions de ce discours en faveur du changement (notamment la capacité, le désir et le besoin de changer) prédisaient un changement effectif dans la consommation d'alcool. Ces résultats encouragent donc à utiliser des comportements recommandés dans l'EM pour favoriser un discours en faveur du changement. Ils montrent aussi qu'une attention particulière doit être portée à la fréquence et à la force avec laquelle sont exprimées certaines dimensions de ce discours car ceux-ci indiquent un potentiel changement effectif de comportement.Résumé vulgariséLa consommation d'alcool chez les adolescents et les jeunes adultes est un des problèmes de santé les plus importants et les plus coûteux dans le monde. En particulier, les consommations importantes d'alcool en une occasion (binge drinking) parmi les jeunes adultes augmentent fortement les risques de conséquences telles que pertes de connaissance, accidents et blessures, comportements sexuels à risque, violences, difficultés scolaires et tentatives de suicide. Les pays qui, comme la Suisse, connaissent un processus de recrutement obligatoire pour l'armée offrent une opportunité unique d'atteindre une large portion de cette population à hauts risques. Nous avons utilisé cet échantillon pour évaluer l'importance du phénomène de binge drinking, pour tester l'efficacité de l'intervention brève motivationnelle (IBM) comme mesure de prévention de la consommation à risque d'alcool, et pour examiner comment fonctionne ce type d'interventions.La première partie de cette étude montre que le binge drinking est moins une exception que la norme parmi les jeunes hommes suisses francophones. Trois quart des personnes consommant de l'alcool avaient au moins un épisode de binge drinking par mois. Presque 70% du total des boissons alcoolisées consommées durant la semaine précédant le questionnaire avaient été consommées lors d'épisodes de binge drinking.Nous avons ensuite mené deux études pour évaluer l'efficacité de l'IBM dans ce cadre. Dans une première étude, nous avons sélectionné des personnes au hasard parmi toutes celles se présentant au centre de recrutement, créant ainsi un groupe potentiellement représentatif de l'ensemble du collectif. Dans la deuxième étude, nous avons inclus toutes les personnes se présentant volontairement pour recevoir une IBM, prendre des volontaires pouvant être plus proche de la réalité et plus proche de l'approche motivationnelle dans laquelle il est crucial que l'individu contrôle ses décisions. Dans les deux études, nous testions l'efficacité de l'IBM comme mesure de prévention primaire et secondaire (voir ci-dessous).En regardant l'IBM comme mesure de prévention secondaire (c'est-à-dire aider à diminuer la consommation d'alcool chez les consommateurs à risque, définis ici comme au moins un épisode de binge drinking par mois), l'IBM était efficace lorsque les participants étaient inclus au hasard et inefficace lorsqu'ils étaient volontaires. Les jeunes hommes volontaires pour un IBM avaient un mode de consommation particulièrement sévère qui pourrait être plus difficile à changer et nécessiter un traitement plus intensif. Parmi les personnes sélectionnées au hasard, l'IBM permettait une diminution de 20% de la consommation hebdomadaire d'alcool, montrant l'intérêt potentiel de la mise en place de ce type de mesures dans des contextes communautaires similaires.En ce qui concerne l'IBM comme mesure de prévention primaire (c'est-à-dire aider à maintenir une consommation à bas risque chez les consommateurs à bas risque), l'IBM avaient un effet protectif parmi les jeunes hommes volontaires pour une IBM, mais pas d'effet chez ceux sélectionnés au hasard. Ces résultats suggèrent que l'IBM pourrait aider de jeunes personnes à maintenir un niveau de consommation à bas risque si celles-ci s'intéressent à discuter de cette consommation. Le contenu de l'IBM pour des consommateurs à bas risque non-volontaires pour une IBM devra encore être évalué.Nous avons ensuite examiné le fonctionnement de l'IBM et cherché quels comportements de l'intervenant et du jeune homme pouvaient être les plus à même d'amener à un changement dans la consommation. Nous avons pu montrer que 1) un discours en faveur du changement chez le jeune homme était plus probable après des comportements de l'intervenant recommandés dans l'approche motivationnelle et moins probable après des comportements non-recommandés ; et 2) plusieurs dimensions de ce discours en faveur du changement (notamment la capacité, le désir et le besoin de changer) prédisaient un changement effectif dans la consommation d'alcool. Ces résultats encouragent donc à utiliser des comportements recommandés dans l'EM pour favoriser un discours en faveur du changement. Ils montrent aussi qu'une attention particulière doit être portée à certaines dimensions de ce discours car celles-ci indiquent un potentiel changement effectif de comportement.

The evolution of unicoloniality in ant societies : recognition, dispersal and population genetic structure

Introduction Societies of ants, bees, wasps and termites dominate many terrestrial ecosystems (Wilson 1971). Their evolutionary and ecological success is based upon the regulation of internal conflicts (e.g. Ratnieks et al. 2006), control of diseases (e.g. Schmid-Hempel 1998) and individual skills and collective intelligence in resource acquisition, nest building and defence (e.g. Camazine 2001). Individuals in social species can pass on their genes not only directly trough their own offspring, but also indirectly by favouring the reproduction of relatives. The inclusive fitness theory of Hamilton (1963; 1964) provides a powerful explanation for the evolution of reproductive altruism and cooperation in groups with related individuals. The same theory also led to the realization that insect societies are subject to internal conflicts over reproduction. Relatedness of less-than-one is not sufficient to eliminate all incentive for individual selfishness. This would indeed require a relatedness of one, as found among cells of an organism (Hardin 1968; Keller 1999). The challenge for evolutionary biology is to understand how groups can prevent or reduce the selfish exploitation of resources by group members, and how societies with low relatedness are maintained. In social insects the evolutionary shift from single- to multiple queens colonies modified the relatedness structure, the dispersal, and the mode of colony founding (e.g. (Crozier & Pamilo 1996). In ants, the most common, and presumably ancestral mode of reproduction is the emission of winged males and females, which found a new colony independently after mating and dispersal flights (Hölldobler & Wilson 1990). The alternative reproductive tactic for ant queens in multiple-queen colonies (polygyne) is to seek to be re-accepted in their natal colonies, where they may remain as additional reproductives or subsequently disperse on foot with part of the colony (budding) (Bourke & Franks 1995; Crozier & Pamilo 1996; Hölldobler & Wilson 1990). Such ant colonies can contain up to several hundred reproductive queens with an even more numerous workforce (Cherix 1980; Cherix 1983). As a consequence in polygynous ants the relatedness among nestmates is very low, and workers raise brood of queens to which they are only distantly related (Crozier & Pamilo 1996; Queller & Strassmann 1998). Therefore workers could increase their inclusive fitness by preferentially caring for their closest relatives and discriminate against less related or foreign individuals (Keller 1997; Queller & Strassmann 2002; Tarpy et al. 2004). However, the bulk of the evidence suggests that social insects do not behave nepotistically, probably because of the costs entailed by decreased colony efficiency or discrimination errors (Keller 1997). Recently, the consensus that nepotistic behaviour does not occur in insect colonies was challenged by a study in the ant Formica fusca (Hannonen & Sundström 2003b) showing that the reproductive share of queens more closely related to workers increases during brood development. However, this pattern can be explained either by nepotism with workers preferentially rearing the brood of more closely related queens or intrinsic differences in the viability of eggs laid by queens. In the first chapter, we designed an experiment to disentangle nepotism and differences in brood viability. We tested if workers prefer to rear their kin when given the choice between highly related and unrelated brood in the ant F. exsecta. We also looked for differences in egg viability among queens and simulated if such differences in egg viability may mistakenly lead to the conclusion that workers behave nepotistically. The acceptance of queens in polygnous ants raises the question whether the varying degree of relatedness affects their share in reproduction. In such colonies workers should favour nestmate queens over foreign queens. Numerous studies have investigated reproductive skew and partitioning of reproduction among queens (Bourke et al. 1997; Fournier et al. 2004; Fournier & Keller 2001; Hammond et al. 2006; Hannonen & Sundström 2003a; Heinze et al. 2001; Kümmerli & Keller 2007; Langer et al. 2004; Pamilo & Seppä 1994; Ross 1988; Ross 1993; Rüppell et al. 2002), yet almost no information is available on whether differences among queens in their relatedness to other colony members affects their share in reproduction. Such data are necessary to compare the relative reproductive success of dispersing and non-dispersing individuals. Moreover, information on whether there is a difference in reproductive success between resident and dispersing queens is also important for our understanding of the genetic structure of ant colonies and the dynamics of within group conflicts. In chapter two, we created single-queen colonies and then introduced a foreign queens originating from another colony kept under similar conditions in order to estimate the rate of queen acceptance into foreign established colonies, and to quantify the reproductive share of resident and introduced queens. An increasing number of studies have investigated the discrimination ability between ant workers (e.g. Holzer et al. 2006; Pedersen et al. 2006), but few have addressed the recognition and discrimination behaviour of workers towards reproductive individuals entering colonies (Bennett 1988; Brown et al. 2003; Evans 1996; Fortelius et al. 1993; Kikuchi et al. 2007; Rosengren & Pamilo 1986; Stuart et al. 1993; Sundström 1997; Vásquez & Silverman in press). These studies are important, because accepting new queens will generally have a large impact on colony kin structure and inclusive fitness of workers (Heinze & Keller 2000). In chapter three, we examined whether resident workers reject young foreign queens that enter into their nest. We introduced mated queens into their natal nest, a foreign-female producing nest, or a foreign male-producing nest and measured their survival. In addition, we also introduced young virgin and mated queens into their natal nest to examine whether the mating status of the queens influences their survival and acceptance by workers. On top of polgyny, some ant species have evolved an extraordinary social organization called 'unicoloniality' (Hölldobler & Wilson 1977; Pedersen et al. 2006). In unicolonial ants, intercolony borders are absent and workers and queens mix among the physically separated nests, such that nests form one large supercolony. Super-colonies can become very large, so that direct cooperative interactions are impossible between individuals of distant nests. Unicoloniality is an evolutionary paradox and a potential problem for kin selection theory because the mixing of queens and workers between nests leads to extremely low relatedness among nestmates (Bourke & Franks 1995; Crozier & Pamilo 1996; Keller 1995). A better understanding of the evolution and maintenance of unicoloniality requests detailed information on the discrimination behavior, dispersal, population structure, and the scale of competition. Cryptic genetic population structure may provide important information on the relevant scale to be considered when measuring relatedness and the role of kin selection. Theoretical studies have shown that relatedness should be measured at the level of the `economic neighborhood', which is the scale at which intraspecific competition generally takes place (Griffin & West 2002; Kelly 1994; Queller 1994; Taylor 1992). In chapter four, we conducted alarge-scale study to determine whether the unicolonial ant Formica paralugubris forms populations that are organised in discrete supercolonies or whether there is a continuous gradation in the level of aggression that may correlate with genetic isolation by distance and/or spatial distance between nests. In chapter five, we investigated the fine-scale population structure in three populations of F. paralugubris. We have developed mitochondria) markers, which together with the nuclear markers allowed us to detect cryptic genetic clusters of nests, to obtain more precise information on the genetic differentiation within populations, and to separate male and female gene flow. These new data provide important information on the scale to be considered when measuring relatedness in native unicolonial populations.

Decision curve analysis revisited: overall net benefit, relationships to ROC curve analysis, and application to case-control studies.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Decision curve analysis has been introduced as a method to evaluate prediction models in terms of their clinical consequences if used for a binary classification of subjects into a group who should and into a group who should not be treated. The key concept for this type of evaluation is the "net benefit", a concept borrowed from utility theory. METHODS: We recall the foundations of decision curve analysis and discuss some new aspects. First, we stress the formal distinction between the net benefit for the treated and for the untreated and define the concept of the "overall net benefit". Next, we revisit the important distinction between the concept of accuracy, as typically assessed using the Youden index and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and the concept of utility of a prediction model, as assessed using decision curve analysis. Finally, we provide an explicit implementation of decision curve analysis to be applied in the context of case-control studies. RESULTS: We show that the overall net benefit, which combines the net benefit for the treated and the untreated, is a natural alternative to the benefit achieved by a model, being invariant with respect to the coding of the outcome, and conveying a more comprehensive picture of the situation. Further, within the framework of decision curve analysis, we illustrate the important difference between the accuracy and the utility of a model, demonstrating how poor an accurate model may be in terms of its net benefit. Eventually, we expose that the application of decision curve analysis to case-control studies, where an accurate estimate of the true prevalence of a disease cannot be obtained from the data, is achieved with a few modifications to the original calculation procedure. CONCLUSIONS: We present several interrelated extensions to decision curve analysis that will both facilitate its interpretation and broaden its potential area of application.

Development of LRFD Procedures for Bridge Pile Foundations in Iowa Volume III: Recommended Resistance Factors with Consideration of Construction Control and Setup, TR-584, 2012

The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) mandated utilizing the Load and Resistance Factor Design (LRFD) approach for all new bridges initiated in the United States after October 1, 2007. As a result, there has been a progressive move among state Departments of Transportation (DOTs) toward an increased use of the LRFD in geotechnical design practices. For the above reasons, the Iowa Highway Research Board (IHRB) sponsored three research projects: TR-573, TR-583 and TR-584. The research information is summarized in the project web site (http://srg.cce.iastate.edu/lrfd/). Two reports of total four volumes have been published. Report volume I by Roling et al. (2010) described the development of a user-friendly and electronic database (PILOT). Report volume II by Ng et al. (2011) summarized the 10 full-scale field tests conducted throughout Iowa and data analyses. This report presents the development of regionally calibrated LRFD resistance factors for bridge pile foundations in Iowa based on reliability theory, focusing on the strength limit states and incorporating the construction control aspects and soil setup into the design process. The calibration framework was selected to follow the guidelines provided by the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO), taking into consideration the current local practices. The resistance factors were developed for general and in-house static analysis methods used for the design of pile foundations as well as for dynamic analysis methods and dynamic formulas used for construction control. The following notable benefits to the bridge foundation design were attained in this project: 1) comprehensive design tables and charts were developed to facilitate the implementation of the LRFD approach, ensuring uniform reliability and consistency in the design and construction processes of bridge pile foundations; 2) the results showed a substantial gain in the factored capacity compared to the 2008 AASHTO-LRFD recommendations; and 3) contribution to the existing knowledge, thereby advancing the foundation design and construction practices in Iowa and the nation.

The early IL-4 response to Leishmania major responsible for progressive disease in BALB/c mice is subject to the control of autocrine IL-2 production and regulatory CD4+C25+ T cells

Résumé : La majorité des souches de souris de laboratoire sont résistantes à l'infection par le parasite Leishmania major (L. major). A l'opposé, les souris de la souche BALB développent une maladie évolutive. La résistance et la sensibilité sont corrélées avec l'apparition de lymphocytes T CD4+ spécifiques du parasite, Th1 (de l'anglais T helper) ou Th2 respectivement. La réponse aberrante Th2 chez les souris de la souche BALB/c dépend, au moins en partie, de façon critique de la production rapide d'IL-4 suite à l'infection. Ce pic précoce d'IL-4 est produit par une population de lymphocytes T CD4+ restreinte aux molécules du MHC de classe II, exprimant les chaînes du récepteur des cellules T Vß4-Va8. Ces lymphocytes sont spécifiques d'un épitope de l'homologue Leishmania de la molécule RACK1 des mammifères, appelée LACK. Il a été clairement démontré que l'IL-4 rapidement produite par ces cellules T CD4+ Vß4-Va8 induit la maturation Th2 responsable de la sensibilité vis-à-vis de L. major. Des expériences ont été entreprises pour étudier la régulation de cette réponse précoce d'IL-4. Dans ce travail, nous avons documenté, dans les cellules provenant des ganglions de souris sensibles infectées par L. major, une augmentation de la transcription de l'ARNm de l'IL-2 qui précède la réponse précoce d'IL-4. La neutralisation de l'IL-2 durant les premiers jours d'infection induit la maturation des cellules Thl et la résistance vis-à-vis de L. major. Ces effets de l'anticorps anti-IL-2 neutralisant sont liés à sa capacité d'interférer avec la transcription rapide d'IL-4 des cellules CD4+ réactives à l'antigène LACK. Une augmentation similaire d'IL-2 survient chez les souris résistantes C57BL/6 qui sont incapables de générer la réponse précoce d'IL-4. Cependant, la protéiné LACK induit une transcription précoce d'IL-2 uniquement chez les souris sensibles. Des expériences de reconstitution utilisant des souris C.B.-17 SCID et des cellules T CD4+ réactives à LACK provenant de souris BALB/c IL-2-~démontrent un mode d'action autocrine de l'IL-2 sur la régulation de la réponse précoce d'IL4. Par conséquent, chez les souris C57BL/6, l'absence du pic précoce d'ARNm de l'IL-4 important pour la progression de la maladie paraît liée à l'incapacité des cellules T CD4+ réactives à LACK de produire de l'IL-2. Un rôle dans le contrôle de la production précoce d'IL-4 par les cellules T régulatrices CD4+CD25+ a été investigué en déplétant in vivo cette population de cellules. La déplétion induit une élévation du pic précoce de l'ARNm de l'IL-4 dans les ganglions drainant de souris BALB/c, ainsi qu'une exacerbation du cours de la maladie avec des taux augmentés d'IL-4 dans les ganglions. La réponse rapide d'IL-2 vis-à-vis de L. major est aussi significativement augmentée chez les souris BALB/c déplétées en cellules CD4+CD25+. De plus, nous avons démontré que le transfert de 10puissance(7) cellules provenant de la rate de souris BALB/c déplétées en cellules T régulatrices CD4+CD25+ rend les souris SCID sensibles à l'infection et permet la différentiation Th2. Au contraire, les souris SCID reconstituées avec 10' cellules de la rate de souris BALB/c contrôle sont résistantes à infection par L. major et développent une réponse Thl. Chez les souris SCID reconstituées avec des cellules de rate déplétées en cellules exprimant le marqueur CD25, le traitement avec un anticorps neutralisant l'IL-4 au moment de l'infection par L. major prévient le développement de la réponse Th2 et rend ces souris résistantes à l'infection. Ces résultats démontrent que les cellules T régulatrices CD4+CD25+ jouent un rôle dans la régulation du pic précoce d'IL-4 responsable du développement cellulaire Th2 dans ce modèle d'infection. Summary Mice from most strains are resistant to infection with Leishmania major (L. major). In contrast, BALB mice develop progressive disease. Resistance and susceptibility result from parasite-specific CD4+ Thl or Th2 cells, respectively. The aberrant Th2 response in BALB/c mice depends, at least in part, upon the production of IL-4 early after infection. The CD4+ T cells responsible for this early IL-4 response to L. major express a restricted TCR repertoire (Vß4-Va8) and respond to an I-Ad-restricted epitope of the Leishmania homologue of mammalian RACK1, designated LACK. The role of these cells and the IL-4 they produce for subsequent Th2 cell development and disease progression in BALB/c mice was demonstrated. Experiments have been undertaken to study the regulation of the rapid IL-4 production to L. major. In this report, we document an IL-2 mRNA burst, preceding the reported early IL-4 response, in draining lymph nodes of susceptible mice infected with L. major. Neutralization of IL-2 during the first days of infection redirected Thl cell maturation and resistance to L. major, through interference with the rapid IL-4 transcription in LACKreactive CD4+ cells. A burst of IL-2 transcripts also occurred in infected C57BL/6 mice that do not mount an early IL-4 response. However, although the LACK protein induced IL-2 transcripts in susceptible mice, it failed to trigger this response in resistant C57BL/6 mice. Reconstitution experiments using C.B.-17 SCID mice and LACK-reactive CD4+ T cells from IL-2-/- BALB/c mice showed that triggering of the early IL-4 response required autocrine IL2. Thus, in C57BL/6 mice, the inability of LACK-reactive CD4+ T cells to express early IL-4 mRNA transcription, important for disease progression, appears due to an incapacity of these cells to produce IL-2. A role for CD4+CD25+ regulatory T cells in the control of this early IL-4 production was investigated by depleting in vivo this regulatory T cell population. Depletion induced an increase in the early burst of IL-4 mRNA in the draining lymph nodes of BALB/c mice, and exacerbated the course of disease with higher levels of IL-4 mRNA and protein in their lymph nodes. The rapid IL-2 response to L. major is also significantly enhanced in BALB/c mice depleted of CD4+CD25+ cells. We further showed that transfer of 10~ BALB/c spleen cells that were depleted of CD4+CD25+ regulatory T cells rendered SCID mice susceptible to infection and allowed Th2 differentiation while SCID mice reconstituted with 10 control BALB/c spleen cells were resistant to infection with L. major and developed a Thl response. Treatment with a mAb against IL-4 upon infection with L. major in SCID mice reconstituted with CD25-depleted spleen cells prevented the development of Th2 polarization and rendered them resistant to infection. These results demonstrate that CD4+CD25+ regulatory T cells play a role in regulating the early IL-4 mRNA and the subsequent development of a Th2 response in this model of infection.