Intelligent pipeline control - a simulation study in the automotive sector

Automotive producers are aiming to make their order fulfilment processes more flexible. Opening the pipeline of planned products for dynamic allocation to dealers/ customers is a significant step to be more flexible but the behaviour of such Virtual-Build-To-Order systems are complex to predict and their performance varies significantly as product variety levels change. This study investigates the potential for intelligent control of the pipeline feed, taking into account the current status of inventory (level and mix) and of the volume and mix of unsold products in the planning pipeline, as well as the demand profile. Five ‘intelligent’ methods for selecting the next product to be planned into the production pipeline are analysed using a discrete event simulation model and compared to the unintelligent random feed. The methods are tested under two conditions, firstly when customers must be fulfilled with the exact product they request, and secondly when customers trade-off a shorter waiting time for compromise in specification. The two forms of customer behaviour have a substantial impact on the performance of the methods and there are also significant differences between the methods themselves. When the producer has an accurate model of customer demand, methods that attempt to harmonise the mix in the system to the demand distribution are superior.

Configuring an open pipeline fulfilment system - a simulation study in an automotive context

Automotive producers are adopting multi-modal fulfillment models in which customers can be fulfilled by products from stock, by allocating as yet unmade products that are in the planning pipeline, or by building a product to order. This study explores how fulfillment is sensitive to several parameters of the system and how they interact with different methods for sequencing products into the production plan.

Mesh Adaption for Tracking Vortex Structures in OVERTURNS Simulation of the S-76 Rotor in Hover

The constant need to improve helicopter performance requires the optimization of existing and future rotor designs. A crucial indicator of rotor capability is hover performance, which depends on the near-body flow as well as the structure and strength of the tip vortices formed at the trailing edge of the blades. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) solvers must balance computational expenses with preservation of the flow, and to limit computational expenses the mesh is often coarsened in the outer regions of the computational domain. This can lead to degradation of the vortex structures which compose the rotor wake. The current work conducts three-dimensional simulations using OVERTURNS, a three-dimensional structured grid solver that models the flow field using the Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes equations. The S-76 rotor in hover was chosen as the test case for evaluating the OVERTURNS solver, focusing on methods to better preserve the rotor wake. Using the hover condition, various computational domains, spatial schemes, and boundary conditions were tested. Furthermore, a mesh adaption routine was implemented, allowing for the increased refinement of the mesh in areas of turbulent flow without the need to add points to the mesh. The adapted mesh was employed to conduct a sweep of collective pitch angles, comparing the resolved wake and integrated forces to existing computational and experimental results. The integrated thrust values saw very close agreement across all tested pitch angles, while the power was slightly over predicted, resulting in under prediction of the Figure of Merit. Meanwhile, the tip vortices have been preserved for multiple blade passages, indicating an improvement in vortex preservation when compared with previous work. Finally, further results from a single collective pitch case were presented to provide a more complete picture of the solver results.

Comparing simulation output accuracy of discrete event and agent based models: a quantitative approach

In our research we investigate the output accuracy of discrete event simulation models and agent based simulation models when studying human centric complex systems. In this paper we focus on human reactive behaviour as it is possible in both modelling approaches to implement human reactive behaviour in the model by using standard methods. As a case study we have chosen the retail sector, and here in particular the operations of the fitting room in the women wear department of a large UK department store. In our case study we looked at ways of determining the efficiency of implementing new management policies for the fitting room operation through modelling the reactive behaviour of staff and customers of the department. First, we have carried out a validation experiment in which we compared the results from our models to the performance of the real system. This experiment also allowed us to establish differences in output accuracy between the two modelling methods. In a second step a multi-scenario experiment was carried out to study the behaviour of the models when they are used for the purpose of operational improvement. Overall we have found that for our case study example both, discrete event simulation and agent based simulation have the same potential to support the investigation into the efficiency of implementing new management policies.

Evaluating tests for convergence of economic series using Monte Carlo methods with an application to real GDP's per head.

Doutoramento em Economia.

Developing an Enhanced Model for Combined Heat and Air Infiltration Energy Simulation

The need for efficient, sustainable, and planned utilization of resources is ever more critical. In the U.S. alone, buildings consume 34.8 Quadrillion (1015) BTU of energy annually at a cost of $1.4 Trillion. Of this energy 58% is utilized for heating and air conditioning. Several building energy analysis tools have been developed to assess energy demands and lifecycle energy costs in buildings. Such analyses are also essential for an efficient HVAC design that overcomes the pitfalls of an under/over-designed system. DOE-2 is among the most widely known full building energy analysis models. It also constitutes the simulation engine of other prominent software such as eQUEST, EnergyPro, PowerDOE. Therefore, it is essential that DOE-2 energy simulations be characterized by high accuracy. Infiltration is an uncontrolled process through which outside air leaks into a building. Studies have estimated infiltration to account for up to 50% of a building’s energy demand. This, considered alongside the annual cost of buildings energy consumption, reveals the costs of air infiltration. It also stresses the need that prominent building energy simulation engines accurately account for its impact. In this research the relative accuracy of current air infiltration calculation methods is evaluated against an intricate Multiphysics Hygrothermal CFD building envelope analysis. The full-scale CFD analysis is based on a meticulous representation of cracking in building envelopes and on real-life conditions. The research found that even the most advanced current infiltration methods, including in DOE-2, are at up to 96.13% relative error versus CFD analysis. An Enhanced Model for Combined Heat and Air Infiltration Simulation was developed. The model resulted in 91.6% improvement in relative accuracy over current models. It reduces error versus CFD analysis to less than 4.5% while requiring less than 1% of the time required for such a complex hygrothermal analysis. The algorithm used in our model was demonstrated to be easy to integrate into DOE-2 and other engines as a standalone method for evaluating infiltration heat loads. This will vastly increase the accuracy of such simulation engines while maintaining their speed and ease of use characteristics that make them very widely used in building design.

Modeling, Simulation, and Characterization of Space Debris in low-Earth Orbit

Every space launch increases the overall amount of space debris. Satellites have limited awareness of nearby objects that might pose a collision hazard. Astrometric, radiometric, and thermal models for the study of space debris in low-Earth orbit have been developed. This modeled approach proposes analysis methods that provide increased Local Area Awareness for satellites in low-Earth and geostationary orbit. Local Area Awareness is defined as the ability to detect, characterize, and extract useful information regarding resident space objects as they move through the space environment surrounding a spacecraft. The study of space debris is of critical importance to all space-faring nations. Characterization efforts are proposed using long-wave infrared sensors for space-based observations of debris objects in low-Earth orbit. Long-wave infrared sensors are commercially available and do not require solar illumination to be observed, as their received signal is temperature dependent. The characterization of debris objects through means of passive imaging techniques allows for further studies into the origination, specifications, and future trajectory of debris objects. Conclusions are made regarding the aforementioned thermal analysis as a function of debris orbit, geometry, orientation with respect to time, and material properties. Development of a thermal model permits the characterization of debris objects based upon their received long-wave infrared signals. Information regarding the material type, size, and tumble-rate of the observed debris objects are extracted. This investigation proposes the utilization of long-wave infrared radiometric models of typical debris to develop techniques for the detection and characterization of debris objects via signal analysis of unresolved imagery. Knowledge regarding the orbital type and semi-major axis of the observed debris object are extracted via astrometric analysis. This knowledge may aid in the constraint of the admissible region for the initial orbit determination process. The resultant orbital information is then fused with the radiometric characterization analysis enabling further characterization efforts of the observed debris object. This fused analysis, yielding orbital, material, and thermal properties, significantly increases a satellite’s Local Area Awareness via an intimate understanding of the debris environment surrounding the spacecraft.

Investigating the mesh dependency and upscaling of 3D grain-based models for the simulation of brittle fracture processes in low-porosity crystalline rock

The application of 3D grain-based modelling techniques is investigated in both small and large scale 3DEC models, in order to simulate brittle fracture processes in low-porosity crystalline rock. Mesh dependency in 3D grain-based models (GBMs) is examined through a number of cases to compare Voronoi and tetrahedral grain assemblages. Various methods are used in the generation of tessellations, each with a number of issues and advantages. A number of comparative UCS test simulations capture the distinct failure mechanisms, strength profiles, and progressive damage development using various Voronoi and tetrahedral GBMs. Relative calibration requirements are outlined to generate similar macro-strength and damage profiles for all the models. The results confirmed a number of inherent model behaviors that arise due to mesh dependency. In Voronoi models, inherent tensile failure mechanisms are produced by internal wedging and rotation of Voronoi grains. This results in a combined dependence on frictional and cohesive strength. In tetrahedral models, increased kinematic freedom of grains and an abundance of straight, connected failure pathways causes a preference for shear failure. This results in an inability to develop significant normal stresses causing cohesional strength dependence. In general, Voronoi models require high relative contact tensile strength values, with lower contact stiffness and contact cohesional strength compared to tetrahedral tessellations. Upscaling of 3D GBMs is investigated for both Voronoi and tetrahedral tessellations using a case study from the AECL’s Mine-by-Experiment at the Underground Research Laboratory. An upscaled tetrahedral model was able to reasonably simulate damage development in the roof forming a notch geometry by adjusting the cohesive strength. An upscaled Voronoi model underestimated the damage development in the roof and floor, and overestimated the damage in the side-walls. This was attributed to the discretization resolution limitations.

Effects of fibrosis morphology on reentrant ventricular tachycardia inducibility and simulation fidelity in patient-derived models

Myocardial fibrosis detected via delayed-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) has been shown to be a strong indicator for ventricular tachycardia (VT) inducibility. However, little is known regarding how inducibility is affected by the details of the fibrosis extent, morphology, and border zone configuration. The objective of this article is to systematically study the arrhythmogenic effects of fibrosis geometry and extent, specifically on VT inducibility and maintenance. We present a set of methods for constructing patient-specific computational models of human ventricles using in vivo MRI data for patients suffering from hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, and chronic myocardial infarction. Additional synthesized models with morphologically varied extents of fibrosis and gray zone (GZ) distribution were derived to study the alterations in the arrhythmia induction and reentry patterns. Detailed electrophysiological simulations demonstrated that (1) VT morphology was highly dependent on the extent of fibrosis, which acts as a structural substrate, (2) reentry tended to be anchored to the fibrosis edges and showed transmural conduction of activations through narrow channels formed within fibrosis, and (3) increasing the extent of GZ within fibrosis tended to destabilize the structural reentry sites and aggravate the VT as compared to fibrotic regions of the same size and shape but with lower or no GZ. The approach and findings represent a significant step toward patient-specific cardiac modeling as a reliable tool for VT prediction and management of the patient. Sensitivities to approximation nuances in the modeling of structural pathology by image-based reconstruction techniques are also implicated.

Evaluation of breeding strategies for polledness in dairy cattle using a newly developed simulation framework for quantitative and Mendelian traits

Background: Intensified selection of polled individuals has recently gained importance in predominantly horned dairy cattle breeds as an alternative to routine dehorning. The status quo of the current polled breeding pool of genetically-closely related artificial insemination sires with lower breeding values for performance traits raises questions regarding the effects of intensified selection based on this founder pool. Methods: We developed a stochastic simulation framework that combines the stochastic simulation software QMSim and a self-designed R program named QUALsim that acts as an external extension. Two traits were simulated in a dairy cattle population for 25 generations: one quantitative (QMSim) and one qualitative trait with Mendelian inheritance (i.e. polledness, QUALsim). The assignment scheme for qualitative trait genotypes initiated realistic initial breeding situations regarding allele frequencies, true breeding values for the quantitative trait and genetic relatedness. Intensified selection for polled cattle was achieved using an approach that weights estimated breeding values in the animal best linear unbiased prediction model for the quantitative trait depending on genotypes or phenotypes for the polled trait with a user-defined weighting factor. Results: Selection response for the polled trait was highest in the selection scheme based on genotypes. Selection based on phenotypes led to significantly lower allele frequencies for polled. The male selection path played a significantly greater role for a fast dissemination of polled alleles compared to female selection strategies. Fixation of the polled allele implies selection based on polled genotypes among males. In comparison to a base breeding scenario that does not take polledness into account, intensive selection for polled substantially reduced genetic gain for this quantitative trait after 25 generations. Reducing selection intensity for polled males while maintaining strong selection intensity among females, simultaneously decreased losses in genetic gain and achieved a final allele frequency of 0.93 for polled. Conclusions: A fast transition to a completely polled population through intensified selection for polled was in contradiction to the preservation of high genetic gain for the quantitative trait. Selection on male polled genotypes with moderate weighting, and selection on female polled phenotypes with high weighting, could be a suitable compromise regarding all important breeding aspects.

Simulation of photoinduced processes in organic chromophores: mapping photochemically relevant states for accurate dynamics

The simulation of ultrafast photoinduced processes is a fundamental step towards the understanding of the underlying molecular mechanism and interpretation/prediction of experimental data. Performing a computer simulation of a complex photoinduced process is only possible introducing some approximations but, in order to obtain reliable results, the need to reduce the complexity must balance with the accuracy of the model, which should include all the relevant degrees of freedom and a quantitatively correct description of the electronic states involved in the process. This work presents new computational protocols and strategies for the parameterisation of accurate models for photochemical/photophysical processes based on state-of-the-art multiconfigurational wavefunction-based methods. The required ingredients for a dynamics simulation include potential energy surfaces (PESs) as well as electronic state couplings, which must be mapped across the wide range of geometries visited during the wavepacket/trajectory propagation. The developed procedures allow to obtain solid and extended databases reducing as much as possible the computational cost, thanks to, e.g., specific tuning of the level of theory for different PES regions and/or direct calculation of only the needed components of vectorial quantities (like gradients or nonadiabatic couplings). The presented approaches were applied to three case studies (azobenzene, pyrene, visual rhodopsin), all requiring an accurate parameterisation but for different reasons. The resulting models and simulations allowed to elucidate the mechanism and time scale of the internal conversion, reproducing or even predicting new transient experiments. The general applicability of the developed protocols to systems with different peculiarities and the possibility to parameterise different types of dynamics on an equal footing (classical vs purely quantum) prove that the developed procedures are flexible enough to be tailored for each specific system, and pave the way for exact quantum dynamics with multiple degrees of freedom.

In-car sound linear simulation

In recent years, vehicle acoustics have gained significant importance in new car development: increasingly advanced infotainment systems for spatial audio and sound enhancement algorithms have become the norm in modern vehicles. In the past, car manufacturers had to build numerous prototypes to study the sound behaviour inside the car cabin or the effect of new algorithms under development. Nowadays, advanced simulation techniques can reduce development costs and time. In this work, after selecting the reference test vehicle, a modern luxury sedan equipped with a high-end sound system, two independent tools were developed: a simulation tool created in the Comsol Multiphysics environment and an auralization tool developed in the Cycling ‘74 MAX environment. The simulation tool can calculate the impulse response and acoustic spectrum at a specific position inside the cockpit. Its input data are the vehicle’s geometry, acoustic absorption parameters of materials, the acoustic characteristics and position of loudspeakers, and the type and position of virtual microphones (or microphone arrays). The simulation tool can also provide binaural impulse responses thanks to Head Related Transfer Functions (HRTFs) and an innovative algorithm able to compute the HRTF at any distance and angle from the head. Impulse responses from simulations or acoustic measurements inside the car cabin are processed and fed into the auralization tool, enabling real-time interaction by applying filters, changing the channels gain or displaying the acoustic spectrum. Since the acoustic simulation of a vehicle involves multiple topics, the focus of this work has not only been the development of two tools but also the study and application of new techniques for acoustic characterization of the materials that compose the cockpit and the loudspeaker simulation. Specifically, three different methods have been applied for material characterization through the use of a pressure-velocity probe, a Laser Doppler Vibrometer (LDV), and a microphone array.

Evaluation Of Different Treatment Methods Against Denture Stomatitis: A Randomized Clinical Study.

The aim of this clinical study was to determine the efficacy of Uncaria tomentosa (cat's claw) against denture stomatitis (DS). Fifty patients with DS were randomly assigned into 3 groups to receive 2% miconazole, placebo, or 2% U tomentosa gel. DS level was recorded immediately, after 1 week of treatment, and 1 week after treatment. The clinical effectiveness of each treatment was measured using Newton's criteria. Mycologic samples from palatal mucosa and prosthesis were obtained to determinate colony forming units per milliliter (CFU/mL) and fungal identification at each evaluation period. Candida species were identified with HiCrome Candida and API 20C AUX biochemical test. DS severity decreased in all groups (P < .05). A significant reduction in number of CFU/mL after 1 week (P < .05) was observed for all groups and remained after 14 days (P > .05). C albicans was the most prevalent microorganism before treatment, followed by C tropicalis, C glabrata, and C krusei, regardless of the group and time evaluated. U tomentosa gel had the same effect as 2% miconazole gel. U tomentosa gel is an effective topical adjuvant treatment for denture stomatitis.

Petroleomics By Electrospray Ionization Ft-icr Mass Spectrometry Coupled To Partial Least Squares With Variable Selection Methods: Prediction Of The Total Acid Number Of Crude Oils.

Negative-ion mode electrospray ionization, ESI(-), with Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT-ICR MS) was coupled to a Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression and variable selection methods to estimate the total acid number (TAN) of Brazilian crude oil samples. Generally, ESI(-)-FT-ICR mass spectra present a power of resolution of ca. 500,000 and a mass accuracy less than 1 ppm, producing a data matrix containing over 5700 variables per sample. These variables correspond to heteroatom-containing species detected as deprotonated molecules, [M - H](-) ions, which are identified primarily as naphthenic acids, phenols and carbazole analog species. The TAN values for all samples ranged from 0.06 to 3.61 mg of KOH g(-1). To facilitate the spectral interpretation, three methods of variable selection were studied: variable importance in the projection (VIP), interval partial least squares (iPLS) and elimination of uninformative variables (UVE). The UVE method seems to be more appropriate for selecting important variables, reducing the dimension of the variables to 183 and producing a root mean square error of prediction of 0.32 mg of KOH g(-1). By reducing the size of the data, it was possible to relate the selected variables with their corresponding molecular formulas, thus identifying the main chemical species responsible for the TAN values.

Estimated Disability-adjusted Life Years Averted By Long-term Provision Of Long Acting Contraceptive Methods In A Brazilian Clinic.

What is the contribution of the provision, at no cost for users, of long acting reversible contraceptive methods (LARC; copper intrauterine device [IUD], the levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system [LNG-IUS], contraceptive implants and depot-medroxyprogesterone [DMPA] injection) towards the disability-adjusted life years (DALY) averted through a Brazilian university-based clinic established over 30 years ago. Over the last 10 years of evaluation, provision of LARC methods and DMPA by the clinic are estimated to have contributed to DALY averted by between 37 and 60 maternal deaths, 315-424 child mortalities, 634-853 combined maternal morbidity and mortality and child mortality, and 1056-1412 unsafe abortions averted. LARC methods are associated with a high contraceptive effectiveness when compared with contraceptive methods which need frequent attention; perhaps because LARC methods are independent of individual or couple compliance. However, in general previous studies have evaluated contraceptive methods during clinical studies over a short period of time, or not more than 10 years. Furthermore, information regarding the estimation of the DALY averted is scarce. We reviewed 50 004 medical charts from women who consulted for the first time looking for a contraceptive method over the period from 2 January 1980 through 31 December 2012. Women who consulted at the Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, University of Campinas, Brazil were new users and users switching contraceptive, including the copper IUD (n = 13 826), the LNG-IUS (n = 1525), implants (n = 277) and DMPA (n = 9387). Estimation of the DALY averted included maternal morbidity and mortality, child mortality and unsafe abortions averted. We obtained 29 416 contraceptive segments of use including 25 009 contraceptive segments of use from 20 821 new users or switchers to any LARC method or DMPA with at least 1 year of follow-up. The mean (± SD) age of the women at first consultation ranged from 25.3 ± 5.7 (range 12-47) years in the 1980s, to 31.9 ± 7.4 (range 16-50) years in 2010-2011. The most common contraceptive chosen at the first consultation was copper IUD (48.3, 74.5 and 64.7% in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, respectively). For an evaluation over 20 years, the cumulative pregnancy rates (SEM) were 0.4 (0.2), 2.8 (2.1), 4.0 (0.4) and 1.3 (0.4) for the LNG-IUS, the implants, copper IUD and DMPA, respectively and cumulative continuation rates (SEM) were 15.1 (3.7), 3.9 (1.4), 14.1 (0.6) and 7.3 (1.7) for the LNG-IUS, implants, copper IUD and DMPA, respectively (P < 0.001). Over the last 10 years of evaluation, the estimation of the contribution of the clinic through the provision of LARC methods and DMPA to DALY averted was 37-60 maternal deaths; between 315 and 424 child mortalities; combined maternal morbidity and mortality and child mortality of between 634 and 853, and 1056-1412 unsafe abortions averted. The main limitations are the number of women who never returned to the clinic (overall 14% among the four methods under evaluation); consequently the pregnancy rate could be different. Other limitations include the analysis of two kinds of copper IUD and two kinds of contraceptive implants as the same IUD or implant, and the low number of users of implants. In addition, the DALY calculation relies on a number of estimates, which may vary in different parts of the world. LARC methods and DMPA are highly effective and women who were well-counselled used these methods for a long time. The benefit of averting maternal morbidity and mortality, child mortality, and unsafe abortions is an example to health policy makers to implement more family planning programmes and to offer contraceptive methods, mainly LARC and DMPA, at no cost or at affordable cost for the underprivileged population. This study received partial financial support from the Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP), grant # 2012/12810-4 and from the National Research Council (CNPq), grant #573747/2008-3. B.F.B., M.P.G., and V.M.C. were fellows from the scientific initiation programme from FAPESP. Since the year 2001, all the TCu380A IUD were donated by Injeflex, São Paulo, Brazil, and from the year 2006 all the LNG-IUS were donated by the International Contraceptive Access Foundation (ICA), Turku, Finland. Both donations are as unrestricted grants. The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest associated with this study.