Dismissal of the illusion of uncertainty in the assessment of a likelihood ratio

The use of the Bayes factor (BF) or likelihood ratio as a metric to assess the probative value of forensic traces is largely supported by operational standards and recommendations in different forensic disciplines. However, the progress towards more widespread consensus about foundational principles is still fragile as it raises new problems about which views differ. It is not uncommon e.g. to encounter scientists who feel the need to compute the probability distribution of a given expression of evidential value (i.e. a BF), or to place intervals or significance probabilities on such a quantity. The article here presents arguments to show that such views involve a misconception of principles and abuse of language. The conclusion of the discussion is that, in a given case at hand, forensic scientists ought to offer to a court of justice a given single value for the BF, rather than an expression based on a distribution over a range of values.

Effect of tow-drop gaps on the damage resistance and tolerance of Variable-Stiffness Panels

This paper presents an experimental study of the effects of tow-drop gaps in Variable Stiffness Panels under drop-weight impact events. Two different configurations, with and without ply-staggering, have been manufactured by Automated Fibre Placement and compared with their baseline counterpart without defects. For the study of damage resistance, three levels of low velocity impact energy are generated with a drop-weight tower. The damage area is analysed by means of ultrasonic inspection. Results of the analysed defect configurations indicate that the influence of gap defects is only relevant under small impact energy values. However, in the case of damage tolerance, the residual compressive strength after impact does not present significant differences to that of conventional straight fibre laminates. This indicates that the strength reduction is driven mainly by the damage caused by the impact event rather than by the influence of manufacturing-induced defects

Parental body condition does not correlate with offspring sex-ratio in Cory's shearwater

We analyzed offspring sex ratio variation in Mediterranean Cory's Shearwater (Calonectris d. diomedea) during two consecutive breeding seasons in two colonies. We test for differential breeding conditions between years and colonies looking at several breeding parameters and parental condition. We then explored the relationship between offspring sex ratio and parental condition and breeding parameters. This species is sexually dimorphic with males larger and heavier than females; consequently we expected differential parental cost in rearing sexes, or a greater sensitivity of male chicks to adverse conditions, which may lead to biased sex ratios. Chicks were sexed molecularly by the amplification of the CHD genes. Offspring sex ratio did not differ from parity, either at hatching or fledging, regardless of the colony or year. However, parental body condition and breeding parameters such as egg size and breeding success were different between years and colonies. Nevertheless, neither nestling mortality nor body condition at fledging varied between years or colonies, suggesting that male and female chicks were probably not differentially affected by variability in breeding conditions.

Comovement of stock price risk in strategic alliance — Case: mobile internet

The focus of this study has been comovement of stock price risk level between two companies as they form strategic alliance. Thus the main reason has been to shed more light to possible increased risk level that the stockholder confronts when a company he owns forms a strategic alliance with another company. This study has centralized to interfirm cooperation between mobile and internet companies, which have furthered the development of mobile internet. The study has been divided into theoretical and empirical part. In theoretical part the main concepts riskiness of a stock (volatility), comovement and strategic alliance have been run through. In empirical part seven strategic alliances formed by mobile internet companies have been examined. Based on this, strategic alliance seems to increase comovement of stock price risk in some degree. This comovement seems to be stronger when core businesses or operating environments of cooperating companies differ more from each other.

Design and evaluation of learning algorithms for dynamic resource management in virtual networks

Network virtualisation is considerably gaining attentionas a solution to ossification of the Internet. However, thesuccess of network virtualisation will depend in part on how efficientlythe virtual networks utilise substrate network resources.In this paper, we propose a machine learning-based approachto virtual network resource management. We propose to modelthe substrate network as a decentralised system and introducea learning algorithm in each substrate node and substrate link,providing self-organization capabilities. We propose a multiagentlearning algorithm that carries out the substrate network resourcemanagement in a coordinated and decentralised way. The taskof these agents is to use evaluative feedback to learn an optimalpolicy so as to dynamically allocate network resources to virtualnodes and links. The agents ensure that while the virtual networkshave the resources they need at any given time, only the requiredresources are reserved for this purpose. Simulations show thatour dynamic approach significantly improves the virtual networkacceptance ratio and the maximum number of accepted virtualnetwork requests at any time while ensuring that virtual networkquality of service requirements such as packet drop rate andvirtual link delay are not affected.

Process intensification: From optimised flow patterns to microprocess technology

This thesis is focused on process intensification. Several significant problems and applications of this theme are covered. Process intensification is nowadays one of the most popular trends in chemical engineering and attempts have been made to develop a general, systematic methodology for intensification. This seems, however, to be very difficult, because intensified processes are often based on creativity and novel ideas. Monolith reactors and microreactors are successful examples of process intensification. They are usually multichannel devices in which a proper feed technique is important for creating even fluid distribution into the channels. Two different feed techniques were tested for monoliths. In the first technique a shower method was implemented by means of perforated plates. The second technique was a dispersion method using static mixers. Both techniques offered stable operation and uniform fluid distribution. The dispersion method enabled a wider operational range in terms of liquid superficial velocity. Using dispersion method, a volumetric gas-liquid mass transfer coefficient of 2 s-1 was reached. Flow patterns play a significant role in terms of the mixing performance of micromixers. Although the geometry of a T-mixer is simple, channel configurations and dimensions had a clear effect on mixing efficiency. The flow in the microchannel was laminar, but the formation of vortices promoted mixing in micro T-mixers. The generation of vortices was dependent on the channel dimensions, configurations and flow rate. Microreactors offer a high ratio of surface area to volume. Surface forces and interactions between fluids and surfaces are, therefore, often dominant factors. In certain cases, the interactions can be effectively utilised. Different wetting properties of solid materials (PTFE and stainless steel) were applied in the separation of immiscible liquid phases. A micro-scale plate coalescer with hydrophilic and hydrophobic surfaces was used for the continuous separation of organic and aqueous phases. Complete phase separation occurred in less than 20 seconds, whereas the separation time by settling exceeded 30 min. Fluid flows can be also intensified in suitable conditions. By adding certain additives into turbulent fluid flow, it was possible to reduce friction (drag) by 40 %. Drag reduction decreases frictional pressure drop in pipelines which leads to remarkable energy savings and decreases the size or number of pumping facilities required, e.g., in oil transport pipes. Process intensification enables operation often under more optimal conditions. The consequent cost savings from reduced use of raw materials and reduced waste lead to greater economic benefits in processing.

Reciclagem de cobre proveniente de analisador automático de carbono e nitrogênio

Isotopic and elemental analysis of N, C and S in liquid and solid samples has been simplified with the advent of automated systems. The simplest method of automation for this kind of analysis involves an elemental analyzer interfaced directly to the ion source of an IRMS (Isotope Ratio Mass Spectrometry). In the analyzer reduction system, an expressive amount of oxidized copper is generated as solid residue. This material is normally imported and the price is very high. A methodology was proposed for the recovery of metallic copper in order to recycle this reagent in the reduction system of a GC-IRMS, using the hydrogen gas in the vacuum line. Results show that it is possible to obtain a recycle of about 95 % of the initial metallic copper used in the reduction system.

Asymptotic analysis of stock price densities and implied volatilities in mixed stochastic models

In this paper, we obtain sharp asymptotic formulas with error estimates for the Mellin con- volution of functions de ned on (0;1), and use these formulas to characterize the asymptotic behavior of marginal distribution densities of stock price processes in mixed stochastic models. Special examples of mixed models are jump-di usion models and stochastic volatility models with jumps. We apply our general results to the Heston model with double exponential jumps, and make a detailed analysis of the asymptotic behavior of the stock price density, the call option pricing function, and the implied volatility in this model. We also obtain similar results for the Heston model with jumps distributed according to the NIG law.

The maximum voltage drop in an on-chip power distribution network: analysis of square, triangular and hexagonal power pad arrangements

A mathematical model of the voltage drop which arises in on-chip power distribution networks is used to compare the maximum voltage drop in the case of different geometric arrangements of the pads supplying power to the chip. These include the square or Manhattan power pad arrangement, which currently predominates, as well as equilateral triangular and hexagonal arrangements. In agreement with the findings in the literature and with physical and SPICE models, the equilateral triangular power pad arrangement is found to minimize the maximum voltage drop. This headline finding is a consequence of relatively simple formulas for the voltage drop, with explicit error bounds, which are established using complex analysis techniques, and elliptic functions in particular.

Commodity Price Driven Risk Management from Viewpoint of High Grade Steel Alloys

The study of price risk management concerning high grade steel alloys and their components was conducted. This study was focused in metal commodities, of which nickel, chrome and molybdenum were in a central role. Also possible hedging instruments and strategies for referred metals were studied. In the literature part main themes are price formation of Ni, Cr and Mo, the functioning of metal exchanges and main hedging instruments for metal commodities. This section also covers how micro and macro variables may affect metal prices from the viewpoint of short as well as longer time period. The experimental part consists of three sections. In the first part, multiple regression model with seven explanatory variables was constructed to describe price behavior of nickel. Results were compared after this with information created with comparable simple regression model. Additionally, long time mean price reversion of nickel was studied. In the second part, theoretical price of CF8M alloy was studied by using nickel, ferro-chrome and ferro-molybdenum as explanatory variables. In the last section, cross hedging possibilities for illiquid FeCr -metal was studied with five LME futures. Also this section covers new information concerning possible forthcoming molybdenum future contracts as well. The results of this study confirm, that linear regression models which are based on the assumption of market rationality, are not able to reliably describe price development of metals at issue. Models fulfilling assumptions for linear regression may though include useful information of statistical significant variables which have effect on metal prices. According to the experimental part, short futures were found to incorporate the most accurate information concerning the price movements in the future. However, not even 3M futures were able to predict turning point in the market before the faced slump. Cross hedging seemed to be very doubtful risk management strategy for illiquid metals, because correlations coefficients were found to be very sensitive for the chosen time span.

Kevyiden rakennemateriaalien soveltamismahdollisuudet metsäkoneissa

Asiakkaiden ympäristötietoisuus, metsäkoneille asetettavat korkeat vaatimukset ja kiristyvä kilpailu pakottavat metsäkoneiden valmistajat etsimään vaihtoehtoisia valmistusmateriaaleja, joita käyttämällä metsäkoneet kevenevät ja sitä kautta niiden ympäristökuormitukset ja käyttökustannukset alenevat ja kapasiteetti kasvaa. Metsäkoneiden rakenteiden keventämisessä alumiini on yksi varteenotettava vaihtoehto teräksen korvaajaksi, sillä alumiinin ominaisuus/paino -suhde on terästä parempi. Alumiinin käyttöä hitsatuissa rakenteissa ovat rajoittaneet sen korkea hinta ja melko huono väsymiskestävyys. Diplomityön tavoitteena on ollut selvittää mahdollisuuksia korvata metsäkoneiden rakenteista löytyviä teräksestä valmistettuja osia alumiinista valmistetuilla osilla. Diplomityön teoriaosassa on käsitelty rakenteiden keventämistä, metsäkoneille asetettavia vaatimuksia, alumiinien materiaaliominaisuuksia, alumiinirakenteiden valmistuksessa käytettäviä menetelmiä sekä alumiinirakenteiden suunnittelua. Lisäksi teoriaosassa on käsitelty komposiittien materiaaliominaisuuksia ja komposiittirakenteiden suunnittelua. Diplomityön kokeellisessa osassa on vertailtu nykyisiä rakennemateriaaleja ja alumiineja metsäkoneen eri osien rakennemateriaaleina osien vaatimusprofiileihin ja materiaalien ominaisuusprofiileihin perustuen. Vaatimusprofiilien perusteella on laadittu ominaisuusprofiilit alumiineille ja teräksille. Sovittamalla vaatimus- ja ominaisuusprofiilit yhteen arvoanalyysin avulla, metsäkoneista on etsitty mahdollisia kohteita, joissa nykyinen rakennemateriaali voitaisiin korvata alumiinilla. Tältä pohjalta metsäkoneista löytyi rakenteita, joissa alumiinin käyttö rakennemateriaalina teräksen sijaan olisi mahdollista. Diplomityö toimii hyvänä pohjana tutkittaessa mahdollisuuksia metsäkoneiden rakenteiden keventämiseksi.

An Interface Damage Model for the Simulation of Delamination Under Variable-Mode Ratio in Composite Materials

A thermodynamically consistent damage model for the simulation of progressive delamination under variable mode ratio is presented. The model is formulated in the context of the Damage Mechanics. The constitutive equation that results from the definition of the free energy as a function of a damage variable is used to model the initiation and propagation of delamination. A new delamination initiation criterion is developed to assure that the formulation can account for changes in the loading mode in a thermodynamically consistent way. The formulation proposed accounts for crack closure effets avoiding interfacial penetration of two adjacent layers aftercomplete decohesion. The model is implemented in a finite element formulation. The numerical predictions given by the model are compared with experimental results

Paperikoneen hyötysuhteen parantaminen kunnossapidon keinoin

Stora Enson Kotkan tehtaiden paperikone yksi on pieni erikoislaatuja tekevä paperikone, jonka hy6tysuhteen parantamiseen on etsitty keinoja kunnossapidon toimesta. Kansainvälisen kilpailun kiristyessä sekä raaka aineiden ja energian kallistuessa paperikoneen hy6tysuhteen tulee olla korkealla tasolla. Tämän diplomity6n kirjallisuusosassa on perehdytty yleisesti kunnossapidon käsitteisiin ja toimintatapoihin. Vikaantumisen osiossa on pyritty l6ytamaan mekanismi laakereiden vikaantumiseen ja kunnonvalvonnalla keinot laakereiden vikaantumisen ehkäisyyn. Työn käytännön osiossa tutkittiin paperikoneen häiriökirjauksia vuosilta 2006 ja 2007 tehtaan toiminnanohjausjärjestelmistä. Samanaikaisesti selvitettiin toimenpidekirjauksia ja tehtyjä korjauksia samoihin kohteisiin, joissa vikaantumista tapahtuu. Tavoitteena oli selvittää syyt suuriin hairi6seisokkiaikoihin sekä analysoida suunniteltujen ja suunnittelemattomien seisokkien suhdetta. Tutkimuksessa havaittiin häiriökirjauksien puutteellisuus ja kirjauksien merkitys häiriöiden ennaltaehkäisyssä.

Ratio in assensum divinae veritatis revelatae deducta

Invocatio: Dirigente Jesu.

Dispersive liquid-liquid microextraction based on solidification of floating organic drop for simultaneous separation/preconcentration of nickel, cobalt and copper prior to determination by electrothermal atomic absorption spectrometry

A dispersive liquid-liquid microextraction based on solidification of floating organic drop for simultaneous extraction of trace amounts of nickel, cobalt and copper followed by their determination with electrothermal atomic absorption spectrometry was developed. 300 µL of acetone and 1-undecanol was injected into an aqueous sample containing diethyldithiocarbamate complexes of metal ions. For a sample volume of 10 mL, enrichment factors of 277, 270 and 300 and detection limits of 1.2, 1.1 and 1 ng L-1 for nickel, cobalt and copper were obtained, respectively. The method was applied to the extraction and determination of these metals in different water samples.