Technical and economic analysis of irrigation of asparagus bean in protected environment

This experiment was conducted in Lavras - state of Minas Gerais (MG), Brazil, in a protected environment, and aims to estimate the irrigation depths that maximize productivity and economic returns in the cultivation of asparagus bean and analyze the economic viability of irrigation management. The experimental delineation was randomized blocks with five treatments and four replications. The treatments consisted of five drip irrigation depths: 40, 70, 100, 130 and 160% of water replacement depth up to field capacity. The depths of water that maximize productivity and economic returns were obtained from the regression model adjusted to productivity data, cost of product relations and water cost. The economic viability was achieved on the benefit/cost ratio basis. The depth with the maximum economic return was estimated in 434.4mm, with a productivity of 35,160.6kg ha-1, which is economically viable for the cultivation of asparagus bean, with a expected profitability of R$ 1.70 for every real invested.

The use of ALOS/PALSAR data for estimating sugarcane productivity

Some models have been developed using agrometeorological and remote sensing data to estimate agriculture production. However, it is expected that the use of SAR images can improve their performance. The main objective of this study was to estimate the sugarcane production using a multiple linear regression model which considers agronomic data and ALOS/PALSAR images obtained from 2007/08, 2008/09 and 2009/10 cropping seasons. The performance of models was evaluated by coefficient of determination, t-test, Willmott agreement index (d), random error and standard error. The model was able to explain 79%, 12% and 74% of the variation in the observed productions of the 2007/08, 2008/09 and 2009/10 cropping seasons, respectively. Performance of the model for the 2008/09 cropping season was poor because of the occurrence of a long period of drought in that season. When the three seasons were considered all together, the model explained 66% of the variation. Results showed that SAR-based yield prediction models can contribute and assist sugar mill technicians to improve such estimates.

Predictors of "occult" intra-abdominal injuries in blunt trauma patients

Objective: to assess predictors of intra-abdominal injuries in blunt trauma patients admitted without abdominal pain or abnormalities on the abdomen physical examination. Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis of trauma registry data, including adult blunt trauma patients admitted from 2008 to 2010 who sustained no abdominal pain or abnormalities on physical examination of the abdomen at admission and were submitted to computed tomography of the abdomen and/or exploratory laparotomy. Patients were assigned into: Group 1 (with intra-abdominal injuries) or Group 2 (without intra-abdominal injuries). Variables were compared between groups to identify those significantly associated with the presence of intra-abdominal injuries, adopting p<0.05 as significant. Subsequently, the variables with p<0.20 on bivariate analysis were selected to create a logistic regression model using the forward stepwise method. Results: A total of 268 cases met the inclusion criteria. Patients in Group I were characterized as having significantly (p<0.05) lower mean AIS score for the head segment (1.0±1.4 vs. 1.8±1.9), as well as higher mean AIS thorax score (1.6±1.7 vs. 0.9±1.5) and ISS (25.7±14.5 vs. 17,1±13,1). The rate of abdominal injuries was significantly higher in run-over pedestrians (37.3%) and in motorcyclists (36.0%) (p<0.001). The resultant logistic regression model provided 73.5% accuracy for identifying abdominal injuries. The variables included were: motorcyclist accident as trauma mechanism (p<0.001 - OR 5.51; 95%CI 2.40-12.64), presence of rib fractures (p<0.003 - OR 3.00; 95%CI 1.47-6.14), run-over pedestrian as trauma mechanism (p=0.008 - OR 2.85; 95%CI 1.13-6.22) and abnormal neurological physical exam at admission (p=0.015 - OR 0.44; 95%CI 0.22-0.85). Conclusion Intra-abdominal injuries were predominantly associated with trauma mechanism and presence of chest injuries.

A seroepidemiological survey of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in sheep from North of Portugal

The aim of this study was evaluate the risk factors for Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Map) seroprevalence in sheep in the North of Portugal. The effects on seroprevalence of several variables such as individual characteristics, management practices, farm characteristics, animal health, and available veterinary services were evaluated. This information was then used in a multivariable logistic regression model in order to identify risk factors for Map seropositivity. Univariable analysis was used to screen the variables used in the logistic regression model. Variables that showed p values of <0.15 were retained for the multivariable analysis. Fifteen variables were associated with paratuberculosis in univariable analysis. The multivariable logistic regression model identified a number of variables as risk factors for seropositivity like sheep pure local and/or a cross of a local breed (OR=2.02), herd size with 31-60 head (OR=2.14), culling during the Spring-Summer season (OR=1.69) and the use of an anti-parasitic treatment such as Ivermectin as the only anti-parasitic medication (OR=5.60). Potential risk factors identified in this study support current recommendations for the control of paratuberculosis.

Exchange rate volatility and the use of foreign currency derivatives: Impact of 2008 global financial crisis

This thesis examines the impact of foreign exchange rate volatility to the extent of use of foreign currency derivatives. Especially the focus is on the impacts of 2008 global financial crisis. The crisis increased risk level in the capital markets greatly. The change in the currency derivatives use is analyzed by comparing means between different periods and in addition, by linear regression that enables to analyze the explanatory power of the model. The research data consists of financial statements figures from fiscal years 2006-2011 published by firms operating in traditional Finnish industrial sectors. Volatilities of the chosen three currency pairs is calculated from the daily fixing rates of ECB. Based on the volatility the sample period is divided into three sub-periods. The results suggest that increased FX market volatility did not increase the use foreign currency derivatives. Furthermore, the increased foreign exchange rate volatility did not increase the power of linear regression model to estimate the use foreign currency derivatives compared to previous studies.

Seroprevalence and risk factors associated with Chlamydophila abortus infection in dairy goats in the Northeast of Brazil

Few data are available on the prevalence and risk factors of Chlamydophila abortus infection in goats in Brazil. A cross-sectional study was carried out to determine the flock-level prevalence of C. abortus infection in goats from the semiarid region of the Paraíba State, Northeast region of Brazil, as well as to identify risk factors associated with the infection. Flocks were randomly selected and a pre-established number of female goats > 12 mo old were sampled in each of these flocks. A total of 975 serum samples from 110 flocks were collected, and structured questionnaire focusing on risk factors for C. abortus infection was given to each farmer at the time of blood collection. For the serological diagnosis the complement fixation test (CFT) using C. abortus S26/3 strain as antigen was performed. The flock-level factors for C. abortus prevalence were tested using multivariate logistic regression model. Fifty-five flocks out of 110 presented at least one seropositive animal with an overall prevalence of 50.0% (95%; CI: 40.3%, 59.7%). Ninety-one out of 975 dairy goats examined were seropositive with titers >32, resulting in a frequency of 9.3%. Lend buck for breeding (odds ratio = 2.35; 95% CI: 1.04-5.33) and history of abortions (odds ratio = 3.06; 95% CI: 1.37-6.80) were associated with increased flock prevalence.

Wheat Yield Loss in a Two Species Competition with Emex australis and Emex spinosa

Emex australis and E. spinosa are significant weed species in wheat and other crops. Information on the extent of competition of the Emex species will be helpful to access yield losses in wheat. Field experiments were conducted to quantify the interference of tested weed densities each as single or mixture of both at 1:1 on their growth and yield, wheat yield components and wheat grain yield losses in two consecutive years. Dry weight of both weed species increased from 3-6 g m-2 with every additional plant of weed, whereas seed number and weight per plant decreased with increasing density of either weed. Both weed species caused considerable decrease in yield components like spike bearing tillers, number of grains per spike, 1000-grain weight of wheat with increasing density population of the weeds. Based on non-linear hyperbolic regression model equation, maximum yield loss at asymptotic weed density was estimated to be 44 and 62% with E. australis, 56 and 70% with E. spinosa and 63 and 72% with mixture of both species at 1:1 during both year of study, respectively. It was concluded that E. spinosa has more competition effects on wheat crop as compared to E. australis.

Dialysis, time and death: comparisons of two consecutive decades among patients treated at the same Brazilian dialysis center

The survival of hemodialysis patients is likely to be influenced not only by well-known risk factors like age and comorbidity, but also by changes in dialysis technology and practices accumulated along time. We compared the survival curves, dialysis routines and some risk factors of two groups of patients admitted to a Brazilian maintenance hemodialysis program during two consecutive decades: March 1977 to December 1986 (group 1, N = 162) and January 1987 to June 1997 (group 2, N = 237). The median treatment time was 22 months (range 1-198). Survival curves were constructed using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared using the log-rank method. The Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to investigate the more important variables associated with outcome. The most important changes in dialysis routine and in patient care during the total period of observation were the progressive increase in the dose of dialysis delivered, the prohibition of potassium-free dialysate, the use of bicarbonate as a buffer and the upgrading of the dialysis equipment. There were no significant differences between the survival curves of the two groups. Survival rates at 1, 5 and 10 years were 84, 53 and 29%, respectively, for group 1 and 77, 42 and 21% for group 2. Patients in group 1 were younger (45.5 ± 15.2 vs 55.2 ± 15.9 years, P<0.001) and had a lower prevalence of diabetes (11.1 vs 27.4%, P<0.001) and of cardiovascular disease (9.3 vs 20.7%, P<0.001). According to the Cox multivariate model, only age (hazard ratio (HR) 1.04, confidence interval (CI) 1.03-1.05, P<0.001) and diabetes (HR 2.55, CI 1.82-3.58, P<0.001) were independent predictors of mortality for the whole group. Patients of group 2 had a lower prevalence of sudden death (19.1 vs 9.7%, P<0.001). After adjusting for age, diabetes and other mortality risk factors, the risk of death was 17% lower in group 2, although this difference was not statistically significant. We conclude that the negative effects of advanced age and of higher frequency of comorbidity on the survival of group 2 patients were probably offset by improvements in patient care and in the quality and dose of dialysis delivered, so that the survival curves did not undergo significant changes along time.

Predicting bankruptcy of Finnish limited liability companies from historical financial statements

This master’s thesis studies the probability of bankruptcy of Finnish limited liability companies as a part of credit risk assessment. The main idea of this thesis is to build and test bankruptcy prediction models for Finnish limited liability companies that can be utilized in credit decision making. The data used in this thesis consists of historical financial statements from 2112 Finnish limited liability companies, half of which have filed for bankruptcy. A total of four models are developed, two with logistic regression and two with multivariate discriminant analysis (MDA). The time horizon of the models varies from 1 to 2 years prior to the bankruptcy, and 14 different financial variables are used in the model formation. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the models ranges between 81.7% and 88.9%, and the best prediction accuracy is achieved with the one year prior the bankruptcy logistic regression model. However the difference between the best logistic model and the best MDA model is minimal. Overall based on the results of this thesis it can be concluded that predicting bankruptcy is possible to some extent, but naturally the results are not perfect.

Patient and physician evaluation of the severity of acute asthma exacerbations

We studied the ability of patients not experienced in the use of peak expiratory flow meters to assess the severity of their asthma exacerbations and compared it to the assessment of experienced clinicians. We also evaluated which data of physical examination and medical history are used by physicians to subjectively evaluate the severity of asthma attacks. Fifty-seven adult patients (15 men and 42 women, with a mean (± SD) age of 37.3 ± 14.5 years and 24.0 ± 17.9 years of asthma symptoms) with asthma exacerbations were evaluated in a University Hospital Emergency Department. Patients and physicians independently evaluated the severity of the asthma attack using a linear scale. Patient score, physician score and forced expiratory volume at the first second (FEV1) were correlated with history and physical examination variables, and were also considered as dependent variables in multiple linear regression models. FEV1 correlated significantly with the physician score (rho = 0.42, P = 0.001), but not with patient score (rho = 0.03; P = 0.77). Use of neck accessory muscles, expiratory time and wheezing intensity were the explanatory variables in the FEV1 regression model and were also present in the physician score model. We conclude that physicians evaluate asthma exacerbation severity better than patients and that physician's scoring of asthma severity correlated significantly with objective measures of airway obstruction (FEV1). Some variables (the use of neck accessory muscles, expiratory time and wheezing intensity) persisted as explanatory variables in physician score and FEV1 regression models, and should be emphasized in medical schools and emergency settings.

Multiple factor analysis of metachronous upper urinary tract transitional cell carcinoma after radical cystectomy

Transitional cell carcinoma (TCC) of the urothelium is often multifocal and subsequent tumors may occur anywhere in the urinary tract after the treatment of a primary carcinoma. Patients initially presenting a bladder cancer are at significant risk of developing metachronous tumors in the upper urinary tract (UUT). We evaluated the prognostic factors of primary invasive bladder cancer that may predict a metachronous UUT TCC after radical cystectomy. The records of 476 patients who underwent radical cystectomy for primary invasive bladder TCC from 1989 to 2001 were reviewed retrospectively. The prognostic factors of UUT TCC were determined by multivariate analysis using the COX proportional hazards regression model. Kaplan-Meier analysis was also used to assess the variable incidence of UUT TCC according to different risk factors. Twenty-two patients (4.6%). developed metachronous UUT TCC. Multiplicity, prostatic urethral involvement by the bladder cancer and the associated carcinoma in situ (CIS) were significant and independent factors affecting the occurrence of metachronous UUT TCC (P = 0.0425, 0.0082, and 0.0006, respectively). These results were supported, to some extent, by analysis of the UUT TCC disease-free rate by the Kaplan-Meier method, whereby patients with prostatic urethral involvement or with associated CIS demonstrated a significantly lower metachronous UUT TCC disease-free rate than patients without prostatic urethral involvement or without associated CIS (log-rank test, P = 0.0116 and 0.0075, respectively). Multiple tumors, prostatic urethral involvement and associated CIS were risk factors for metachronous UUT TCC, a conclusion that may be useful for designing follow-up strategies for primary invasive bladder cancer after radical cystectomy.

Why are the rates of cesarean section in Brazil higher in more developed cities than in less developed ones?

The objective of the present study was to investigate factors associated with cesarean sections in two cities located in different regions of Brazil and to determine factors that explain the higher cesarean section rate in the more developed city, Ribeirão Preto, compared to the less developed one, São Luís. Data from two cohort studies comprising 2846 women in Ribeirão Preto in 1994, and 2443 women in São Luís in 1997/1998 were used. Adjusted and non-adjusted risk estimates were calculated using a Poisson regression model. The cesarean section rate was 33.7% in São Luís and 50.8% in Ribeirão Preto. Adjusted analysis in a joint sequential model revealed a 51% higher risk of cesarean section in Ribeirão Preto compared to São Luís (prevalence rate ratio (PRR) = 1.51). Adjustment for category of hospital admission reduced the PRR to 1.09, i.e., this variable explained 82% of the difference in the cesarean section rate between the two cities. Adjustment for the variable "the same physician for prenatal care and delivery" reduced the PRR to 1.07, with the "physician" factor explaining 86% of the difference between rates. When simultaneously adjusted for the two variables, the PRR decreased to 1.05, with these two variables explaining 90% of the difference in the cesarean section rate between the two cities, and the difference was no longer significant. The difference in the cesarean section rate between the two Brazilian cities, one more and one less developed, was mainly explained by the physician factor and, to a lesser extent, by the category of hospital admission.

Do early life factors influence body mass index in adolescents?

The association between early life factors and body mass index (BMI) in adulthood has been demonstrated in developed countries. The aim of the present study was to assess the influence of early life factors (birth weight, gestational age, maternal smoking, and social class) on BMI in young adulthood with adjustment for adult socioeconomic position. A cohort study was carried out in 1978/79 with 6827 mother-child pairs from Ribeirão Preto city, located in the most developed economic area of the country. Biological, economic and social variables and newborn anthropometric measurements were obtained shortly after delivery. In 1996, 1189 males from this cohort, 34.3% of the original male population, were submitted to anthropometric measurements and were asked about their current schooling on the occasion of army recruitment. A multiple linear regression model was applied to determine variables associated with BMI. Mean BMI was 22.7 (95%CI = 22.5-23.0). After adjustment, BMI was 1.22 kg/m² higher among infants born with high birth weight (³4000 g), 1.21 kg/m² higher among individuals of low social class at birth and 0.69 kg/m² higher among individuals whose mothers smoked during pregnancy (P < 0.05). The association between social class at birth and BMI remained statistically significant (P < 0.05) even after adjustment for adult schooling. These findings suggest that early life social influences on BMI were more important and were not reversed by late socioeconomic position. Therefore, prevention of overweight and obesity should focus not only on changes in adult life styles but also on factors such as high birth weight.

Gross proteinuria is a strong risk predictor for cardiovascular mortality in Brazilian type 2 diabetic patients

Increased proteinuria is recognized as a risk predictor for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in diabetic patients; however, no study has evaluated these relationships in Brazilian patients. The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic value of gross proteinuria for all-cause and cardiovascular mortalities and for cardiovascular morbidity in a cohort study of 471 type 2 diabetic individuals followed for up to 7 years. Several clinical, laboratory and electrocardiographic variables were obtained at baseline. The relative risks for all-cause, cardiovascular and cardiac mortalities and for cardiovascular and cardiac events associated with the presence of overt proteinuria (>0.5 g/24 h) were assessed by Kaplan-Meier survival curves and by multivariate Cox regression model. During a median follow-up of 57 months (range 2-84 months), 121 patients (25.7%) died, 44 from cardiovascular and 30 from cardiac causes, and 106 fatal or non-fatal cardiovascular events occurred. Gross proteinuria was an independent risk predictor of all-cause, cardiovascular and cardiac mortalities and of cardiovascular morbidity with adjusted relative risks ranging from 1.96 to 4.38 for the different endpoints. This increased risk remained significant after exclusion of patients with prior cardiovascular disease at baseline from the multivariate analysis. In conclusion, gross proteinuria was a strong predictor of all-cause, cardiovascular and cardiac mortalities and also of cardiovascular morbidity in a Brazilian cohort of type 2 diabetic patients. Intervention studies are necessary to determine whether the reduction of proteinuria can decrease morbidity and mortality of type 2 diabetes in Brazil.

Coronary artery calcification is associated with insulin resistance index in patients with type 1 diabetes

The objective of the present study was to evaluate the risk factors associated with the presence of coronary artery calcification (CAC) in patients with type 1 diabetes (T1D). A cross-sectional study was conducted on 100 consecutive T1D patients without coronary artery disease, with at least 5 years of diabetes and absence of end-stage renal disease. Mean age was 38 ± 10 years and 57% were males. CAC score was measured by multidetector computed tomography (Siemens Sensation 64 Cardiac). The insulin resistance index was measured using the estimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR). The eGDR was lower among CAC-positive patients than among CAC-negative patients, suggesting an increased insulin resistance. In a logistic regression model adjusted for age (at 10-year intervals), eGDR, diabetic nephropathy and gender, CAC was associated with age [OR = 2.73 (95%CI = 1.53-4.86), P = 0.001] and with eGDR [OR = 0.08 (95%CI = 0.02-0.21), P = 0.004]. In T1D subjects, insulin resistance is one of the most important risk factors for subclinical atherosclerosis.