Poisson, Poisson-gamma and zero-inflated regression models of motor vehicle crashes: balancing statistical fit and theory

There has been considerable research conducted over the last 20 years focused on predicting motor vehicle crashes on transportation facilities. The range of statistical models commonly applied includes binomial, Poisson, Poisson-gamma (or negative binomial), zero-inflated Poisson and negative binomial models (ZIP and ZINB), and multinomial probability models. Given the range of possible modeling approaches and the host of assumptions with each modeling approach, making an intelligent choice for modeling motor vehicle crash data is difficult. There is little discussion in the literature comparing different statistical modeling approaches, identifying which statistical models are most appropriate for modeling crash data, and providing a strong justification from basic crash principles. In the recent literature, it has been suggested that the motor vehicle crash process can successfully be modeled by assuming a dual-state data-generating process, which implies that entities (e.g., intersections, road segments, pedestrian crossings, etc.) exist in one of two states—perfectly safe and unsafe. As a result, the ZIP and ZINB are two models that have been applied to account for the preponderance of “excess” zeros frequently observed in crash count data. The objective of this study is to provide defensible guidance on how to appropriate model crash data. We first examine the motor vehicle crash process using theoretical principles and a basic understanding of the crash process. It is shown that the fundamental crash process follows a Bernoulli trial with unequal probability of independent events, also known as Poisson trials. We examine the evolution of statistical models as they apply to the motor vehicle crash process, and indicate how well they statistically approximate the crash process. We also present the theory behind dual-state process count models, and note why they have become popular for modeling crash data. A simulation experiment is then conducted to demonstrate how crash data give rise to “excess” zeros frequently observed in crash data. It is shown that the Poisson and other mixed probabilistic structures are approximations assumed for modeling the motor vehicle crash process. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that under certain (fairly common) circumstances excess zeros are observed—and that these circumstances arise from low exposure and/or inappropriate selection of time/space scales and not an underlying dual state process. In conclusion, carefully selecting the time/space scales for analysis, including an improved set of explanatory variables and/or unobserved heterogeneity effects in count regression models, or applying small-area statistical methods (observations with low exposure) represent the most defensible modeling approaches for datasets with a preponderance of zeros

Theatre audience contribution : facilitating a new text through the post-performance discussion

Theatre Audience Contribution introduces a new approach to theatre audience research: audience contribution through the post-performance discussion. This volume considers the physical and vocal behaviour of audience members as an integral part of the theatrical event that changes, adds to and informs the theatrical experience. Post-performance discussions, although rising in popularity, are yet an under-explored and under-utilised avenue for audience contribution. Beginning with an overview of reception theory and the historical role of theatre audiences, the author introduces a new method for the facilitation of post-performance discussions that encourages audience contribution and privileges the audience voice. Two case studies explore post-performance discussions that inform the theatrical event and discover a new role for the contemporary audience: audience critic. This accessible volume has significant implications for theatre theorists, practitioners and audiences alike.

When sparks fly : developing formal mentoring programs for the career development of young and emerging artists

Formal mentoring programs are accepted as a valuable strategy for developing young and emerging artists. This thesis presents the results of an evaluation of the SPARK National Young Artists Mentoring Program (SPARK). SPARK was a ten-month formal mentoring program managed by Youth Arts Queensland (YAQ) on behalf of the Australia Council for the Arts from 2003-2009. The program aimed to assist young and emerging Australian artists between the ages of 18-26 to establish a professional career in the arts. It was a highly successful formal arts mentoring program that facilitated 58 mentorships between young and emerging artists and professional artists from across Australia in five program rounds over its seven year lifespan. Interest from other cultural organisations looking to develop their own formal mentoring programs encouraged YAQ to commission this research to determine how the program works to achieve its effects. This study was conducted with young and emerging artists who participated in SPARK from 2003 to 2008. It took a theory-driven evaluation approach to examine SPARK as an example of what makes formal arts mentoring programs effective. It focused on understanding the program’s theory or how the program worked to achieve its desired outcomes. The program activities and assumed responses to program activities were mapped out in a theories of change model. This theoretical framework was then used to plan the points for data collection. Through the process of data collection, actual program developments were compared to the theoretical framework to see what occurred as expected and what did not. The findings were then generalised for knowledge and wider application. The findings demonstrated that SPARK was a successful and effective program and an exemplar model of a formal mentoring program preparing young and emerging artists for professional careers in the arts. They also indicate several ways in which this already strong program could be further improved, including: looking at the way mentoring relationships are set up and how the mentoring process is managed; considering the balance between artistic and professional development; developing career development competencies and networking skills; taking into account the needs of young and emerging artists to develop their professional identity and build confidence; and giving more thought to the desired program outcomes and considering the issue of timeliness and readiness for career transition. From these findings, together with principles outlined in the mentoring and career development literature, a number of necessary conditions have been identified for developing effective mentoring programs in the career development of young and emerging artists.

Closing the gap : the next steps for the interaction of corporate reputation and psychological contract development

With an increasing body of literature linking the human resource management and marketing fields, one area receiving increased academic attention is how an organisation’s corporate reputation can be managed to attract potential recruits and shape their employment expectations through their psychological contracts. This paper seeks to enhance current models which focus on the interrelationship of corporate reputation and psychological contract theory. It is argued that a number of factors need to be considered in order the build a firmer foundation for such a theory. Firstly, a common understanding of the psychological contract needs to be established such that the focus on either expectations or promises is clarified. Secondly, the included components of the psychological contract need to be considered in light of their empirical founding and their relationship with one another. Thirdly, the interrelationship of corporate reputation, employer branding, identity and image needs to be explicated within the context of how they both influence and interrelate with the psychological contract. The final consideration surrounds the opportunity for potential employees to be considered within the corporate reputation literature as a significant stakeholder group.

A comparative knowledge-based urban development analysis : Vancouver, Melbourne and Manchester vs. Boston

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to introduce a knowledge-based urban development assessment framework, which has been constructed in order to evaluate and assist in the (re)formulation of local and regional policy frameworks and applications necessary in knowledge city transformations. Design/methodology/approach - The research reported in this paper follows a methodological approach that includes a thorough review of the literature, development of an assessment framework in order to inform policy-making by accurately evaluating knowledge-based development levels of cities, and application of this framework in a comparative study - Boston, Vancouver, Melbourne and Manchester. Originality/value - The paper, with its assessment framework, demonstrates an innovative way of examining the knowledge-based development capacity of cities by scrutinising their economic, socio-cultural, enviro-urban and institutional development mechanisms and capabilities. Practical implications - The paper introduces a framework developed to assess the knowledge-based development levels of cities; presents some of the generic indicators used to evaluate knowledge-based development performance of cities; demonstrates how a city can benchmark its development level against that of other cities, and; provides insights for achieving a more sustainable and knowledge-based development.

Investigating challenges and opportunities of water sensitive urban design for knowledge based development of Australian cities

A new approach that is slowly replacing neoclassical models of economic growth and commodity based industrial activities, knowledge based urban development (KBUD) aims to provide opportunities for citiesw to foster knowledge creation, exchange and innovation, and is based on the concepts of both sustainable urban development and economic prosperity; sustainable uses and protection of natural resources are therefore integral parts of KBUD. As such, stormwater, which has been recognised as one of the main culprits of aquatic ecosystem pollution and as therefore a significant threat to the goal of sustainable urban development, needs to be managed in a manner that produces ecologically sound outcomes. Water sensitive urban design (WSUD) is one of the key responses to the need to better management urban stormwater runoff and supports KBUD by providing an alternative, innovative and effective strategy to traditional stormwater management.

Toward a cultural economic geography of creative industries and urban development : introduction to the special issue on creative industries and urban development

The connections between the development of creative industries and the growth of cities was noted by several sources over the 2000s, but explanations relating to the nature of the link have thus far provide to be insufficient. The two dominant ‘scripts’ were those of ‘creative clusters’ and ‘creative/cities/creative class’ theories, but both have proved to be insufficient, not least because they privilege amenities-led, supply-drive accounts of urban development that fail to adequately situate cities in wider global circuits of culture and economic production. It is proposed that the emergent field of cultural economic geography provides some insights into redressing these lacunae, particularly in the possibilities for an original synthesis of cultural and economic geography, cultural studies and new strands of economic theory.

Years 2 to 6 students' ability to generalise : models, representations and theory for teaching and learning

Over the last three years, in our Early Algebra Thinking Project, we have been studying Years 3 to 5 students’ ability to generalise in a variety of situations, namely, compensation principles in computation, the balance principle in equivalence and equations, change and inverse change rules with function machines, and pattern rules with growing patterns. In these studies, we have attempted to involve a variety of models and representations and to build students’ abilities to switch between them (in line with the theories of Dreyfus, 1991, and Duval, 1999). The results have shown the negative effect of closure on generalisation in symbolic representations, the predominance of single variance generalisation over covariant generalisation in tabular representations, and the reduced ability to readily identify commonalities and relationships in enactive and iconic representations. This chapter uses the results to explore the interrelation between generalisation and verbal and visual comprehension of context. The studies evidence the importance of understanding and communicating aspects of representational forms which allowed commonalities to be seen across or between representations. Finally the chapter explores the implications of the studies for a theory that describes a growth in integration of models and representations that leads to generalisation.

Predicting the consumption of foods low in saturated fats among people diagnosed with Type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. The role of planning in the theory of planned behaviour

The present study tested the utility of an extended version of the theory of planned behaviour that included a measure of planning, in the prediction of eating foods low in saturated fats among adults diagnosed with Type 2 diabetes and/or cardiovascular disease. Participants (N = 184) completed questionnaires assessing standard theory of planned behaviour measures (attitude, subjective norm, and perceived behavioural control) and the additional volitional variable of planning in relation to eating foods low in saturated fats. Self-report consumption of foods low insaturated fats was assessed 1 month later. In partial support of the theory of planned behaviour, results indicated that attitude and subjective norm predicted intentions to eat foods low in saturated fats and intentions and perceived behavioural control predicted the consumption of foods low in saturated fats. As an additional variable, planning predicted the consumption of foods low in saturated fats directly and also mediated the intention–behaviour and perceived behavioural control–behaviour relationships, suggesting an important role for planning as a post-intentional construct determining healthy eating choices. Suggestions are offered for interventions designed to improve adherence to healthy eating recommendations for people diagnosed with these chronic conditions with a specific emphasis on the steps and activities that are required to promote a healthier lifestyle.

Tendering theory revisited

This paper discusses the content, origin and development of Tendering Theory as a theory of price determination. It demonstrates how tendering theory determines market prices and how it is different from game and decision theories, and that in the tendering process, with non-cooperative, simultaneous, single sealed bids with individual private valuations, extensive public information, a large number of bidders and a long sequence of tendering occasions, there develops a competitive equilibrium. The development of a competitive equilibrium means that the concept of the tender as the sum of a valuation and a strategy, which is at the core of tendering theory, cannot be supported and that there are serious empirical, theoretical and methodological inconsistencies in the theory.

Autonomous underwater vehicles: development and implementation of time and energy efficient trajectories

Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) are increasingly used, both in military and civilian applications. These vehicles are limited mainly by the intelligence we give them and the life of their batteries. Research is active to extend vehicle autonomy in both aspects. Our intent is to give the vehicle the ability to adapt its behavior under different mission scenarios (emergency maneuvers versus long duration monitoring). This involves a search for optimal trajectories minimizing time, energy or a combination of both. Despite some success stories in AUV control, optimal control is still a very underdeveloped area. Adaptive control research has contributed to cost minimization problems, but vehicle design has been the driving force for advancement in optimal control research. We look to advance the development of optimal control theory by expanding the motions along which AUVs travel. Traditionally, AUVs have taken the role of performing the long data gathering mission in the open ocean with little to no interaction with their surroundings, MacIver et al. (2004). The AUV is used to find the shipwreck, and the remotely operated vehicle (ROV) handles the exploration up close. AUV mission profiles of this sort are best suited through the use of a torpedo shaped AUV, Bertram and Alvarez (2006), since straight lines and minimal (0 deg - 30 deg) angular displacements are all that are necessary to perform the transects and grid lines for these applications. However, the torpedo shape AUV lacks the ability to perform low-speed maneuvers in cluttered environments, such as autonomous exploration close to the seabed and around obstacles, MacIver et al. (2004). Thus, we consider an agile vehicle capable of movement in six degrees of freedom without any preference of direction.

Reconnecting the interrupted landscape : a cultural landscape approach to Australian open-cut coal mining landscapes

In the late 20th century, a value-shift began to influence political thinking, recognising the need for environmentally, socially and culturally sustainable resource development. This shift entailed moves away from thinking of nature and culture as separate entities - The former existing merely to serve the latter. Cultural landscape theory recognises 'nature' as at once both 'natural', and as a 'cultural' construct. As such it may offer a framework through which to progress in the quest for 'sustainable development'. This 2005 Masters thesis makes a contribution to that quest by asking whether contemporary developments in cultural landscape theory can contribute to rehabilitation strategies for Australian open-cut coal mining landscapes, an examplar resource development landscape. A thematic historial overview of landscape values and resource development in Australis post-1788, and a review of cultural landscape theory literature contribute to the formation of the theoretical framework: "reconnecting the interrupted landscape". The author then explores a possible application of this framework within the Australian open-cut coal mining landscape.

Luxury fashion: The role of innovation as a key contributing factor in the development of luxury fashion goods and sustainable fashion design

Luxury is a quality that is difficult to define as the historical concept of luxury appears to be both dynamic and culturally specific. The everyday definition explains a ‘luxury’ in relation to a necessity: a luxury (product or service) is defined as something that consumers want rather than need. However, the growth of global markets has seen a boom in what are now referred to as ‘luxury brands’. This branding of products as luxury has resulted in a change in the way consumers understand luxury goods and services. In their attempts to characterize a luxury brand, Fionda & Moore in their article “The anatomy of a Luxury Brand” summarize a range of critical conditions that are in addition to product branding “... including product and design attributes of quality, craftsmanship and innovative, creative and unique products” (Fionda & Moore, 2009). For the purposes of discussing fashion design however, quality and craftsmanship are inseparable while creativity and innovation exist under different conditions. The terms ‘creative’ and ‘innovative’ are often used inter-changeably and are connected with most descriptions of the design process, defining ‘design’ and ‘fashion’ in many cases. Christian Marxt and Fredrik Hacklin identify this condition in their paper “Design, product development, innovation: all the same in the end?”(Marxt & Hacklin, 2005) and suggest that design communities should be aware that the distinction between these terms, whilst once quite definitive, is becoming narrow to a point where they will mean the same thing. In relation to theory building in the discipline this could pose significant problems. Brett Richards (2003) identifies innovation as different from creativity in that innovation aims to transform and implement rather than simply explore and invent. Considering this distinction, in particular relation to luxury branding, may affect the way in which design can contribute to a change in the way luxury fashion goods might be perceived in a polarised fashion market, namely suggesting that ‘luxury’ is what consumers need rather than the ‘pile it high, sell it cheap’ fashion that the current market dynamic would indicate they want. This paper attempts to explore the role of innovation as a key contributing factor in luxury concepts, in particular the relationship between innovation and creativity, the conditions which enable innovation, the role of craftsmanship in innovation and design innovation in relation to luxury fashion products. An argument is presented that technological innovation can be demonstrated as a common factor in the development of luxury fashion product and that the connection between designer and maker will play an important role in the development of luxury fashion goods for a sustainable fashion industry.

The development of fast bowling experts in Australian cricket

In this paper, we highlight key concepts from dynamical systems theory and complexity sciences to exemplify constraints on talent development in a sample of elite cricketers. Eleven international fast bowlers who cumulatively had taken more than 2,400 test wickets in over 600 international test matches were interviewed using an in-depth, open-ended, and semi-structured approach. Qualitative data were analysed to identify key components in fast bowling expertise development. Results revealed that, contrary to traditional perspectives, the athletes progressed through unique, nonlinear trajectories of development, which appears to be a commonality in the experts' developmental pathways. During development, individual experts encountered unique constraints on the acquisition of expertise in cricket fast bowling, resulting in unique performance adaptations. Specifically, data illustrated experts' ability to continually adapt behaviours under multifaceted ecological constraints.

The development of the extended adolescent injury checklist (E-AIC) : a measure for injury prevention program evaluation

The Extended Adolescent Injury Checklist (E-AIC), a self-report measure of injury based on the model of the Adolescent Injury Checklist (AIC), was developed for use in the evaluation of school-based interventions. The three stages of this development involved focus groups with adolescents and consultations with medical staff, pilot testing of the revised AIC in a high school context, and use of the finalised checklist in pre- and post-questionnaires to examine its utility. Results revealed that responses to the final version of the E-AIC were meaningful and remained consistent over time. The E-AIC appears to be a promising measure of adolescent injury that is simple, time-efficient and appropriate for use in the evaluation of school-based injury prevention programs.