Acute Kidney Injury after Pediatric Cardiac Surgery: Risk Factors and Outcomes. Proposal for a Predictive Model

Objectives: To characterize the epidemiology and risk factors for acute kidney injury (AKI) after pediatric cardiac surgery in our center, to determine its association with poor short-term outcomes, and to develop a logistic regression model that will predict the risk of AKI for the study population. Methods: This single-center, retrospective study included consecutive pediatric patients with congenital heart disease who underwent cardiac surgery between January 2010 and December 2012. Exclusion criteria were a history of renal disease, dialysis or renal transplantation. Results: Of the 325 patients included, median age three years (1 day---18 years), AKI occurred in 40 (12.3%) on the first postoperative day. Overall mortality was 13 (4%), nine of whom were in the AKI group. AKI was significantly associated with length of intensive care unit stay, length of mechanical ventilation and in-hospital death (p<0.01). Patients’ age and postoperative serum creatinine, blood urea nitrogen and lactate levels were included in the logistic regression model as predictor variables. The model accurately predicted AKI in this population, with a maximum combined sensitivity of 82.1% and specificity of 75.4%. Conclusions: AKI is common and is associated with poor short-term outcomes in this setting. Younger age and higher postoperative serum creatinine, blood urea nitrogen and lactate levels were powerful predictors of renal injury in this population. The proposed model could be a useful tool for risk stratification of these patients.

Competition policy costs to firms

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Energy efficiency in energy policy: Empirical evidence of direct rebound effect in Portuguese households' demand for electricity

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

The Fed policy announcement effect on the equity market

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Volume hospitalar e outcomes : uma análise a dados administrativos portugueses

RESUMO - Objetivos: Estudos anteriores demonstraram a existência de uma relação inversa entre melhores outcomes e volume hospitalar. Tendo este fenómeno em consideração, o objetivo deste estudo foi analisar esta relação a um nível populacional em Portugal. Métodos: Análise da base de dados Portuguesa dos GDH relativos ao ano financeiro de 2009. Todas as STA e STJ foram contabilizadas e critérios de exclusão determinados, para selecionar duas amostras homogéneas, analisadas por volume hospitalar. O volume hospitalar foi definido em três grupos: HVB, HVM, HVE de acordo com o volume anual de procedimentos efetuado por cada hospital individual durante o período do estudo. Os outcomes avaliados incluíram a mortalidade, presença de pelo menos uma complicação cirúrgica, estadia prolongada assim como a média de dias de internamento. A idade e sexo foram controlados como possíveis fatores de confundimento. Resultados: A investigação principal consistiu na análise de 4615 STA e 5904 STJ. Os resultados indicam que os eventos adversos (mortalidade e complicações cirúrgicas) são pouco comuns nestes procedimentos, produzindo resultados sem significância estatística. A estadia prolongada estabeleceu uma clara e significativa relação inversa com o volume hospitalar. A estadia prolongada foi superior em hospitais de volume baixo (STA OR 2.71; STJ OR 2.17) e hospitais de volume médio (STA OR 1.72; STJ OR 1.73) quando comparados com hospitais de volume elevado. Os dias de internamento médios produziram uma associação semelhante, sendo possível estimar quase oito milhões e meio de euros de custos evitáveis no ano de 2009, em ambos os procedimentos. Conclusões: O volume hospitalar não apresentou relações significativas com a mortalidade e complicações cirúrgicas, devido ao baixo número de eventos adversos registados. Verificou-se, no entanto, uma associação significativa com os dias de internamento e estadia prolongada. As STA e STJ realizadas em hospitais de volume elevado poderão reduzir custos, ao diminuir os dias de internamento.

Outcomes of communication competence: A study on a Portuguese restaurant chain

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

What is the best accounting policy for gains and losses in pensions?

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Multipath policy routing in packet switched networks

Dissertação apresentada para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores, pela Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia

The impact of Ireland’s current Mental Health Policy on the profile of community mental Health Services

RESUMO: Em 2006, foi aprovada uma nova política governamental para a saúde mental intitulada “Uma Visão para a Mudança”, a qual está neste momento no sétimo ano de implementação. A política descreve um enquadramento para o desenvolvimento e promoção da saúde mental positiva para toda a Comunidade e para a prestação de serviços acessíveis, baseados na comunidade, serviços especializados para pessoas com doença mental. A implementação da política e o tornar a “Vision for Change” uma realidade têm sido problemáticos, com críticas consideráveis por parte dos intervenientes, relativas à lenta e desconexa implementação. Este estudo fornece informação sobre as características dos serviços de três importantes tipos de instituições de saúde mental comunitária a nível nacional, nomeadamente Hospitais de Dia, Centros de Dia e residências comunitárias operantes 24 horas. A pesquisa analisa objetivos e funções, perfis dos pacientes, atividades terapêuticas, a eficácia das redes de comunicação e beneficia da perspectiva dos funcionários sobre o que mudou no terreno ao longo dos últimos sete anos. As questões identificadas a partir das características dos três serviços dizem respeito a todos. Os participantes indicaram que o ethos da recuperação parece ter alcançado um papel mais central no tratamento do paciente na comunidade mas reconheceram que o desafio de integrar os princípios de recuperação na prática clínica se mantém presente. Parece ser reconhecida a importância da planificação do cuidado individual nos serviços comunitários e os entrevistados indicaram que existe um empenho para garantir o envolvimento do usuário do serviço. Há diferenças entre os „pontos de vista do pessoal‟ e os „pontos de vista dos representantes‟ sobre uma série de aspetos da prestação de serviços. Este é o primeiro estudo irlandês deste género a examinar a prestação de serviços das três principais instituições comunitárias de saúde mental num só estudo. Estes serviços representam um enorme investimento em recursos, quer a nível monetário, quer humano. O estudo examinou os desafios e as questões fundamentais que lhe são aplicáveis e que têm impacto nestes três tipos de prestação de serviços. Também forneceu informações sobre os elementos de mudança positiva, os quais se começam a focar lentamente na prestação do serviço, assim como na importância da centralidade do utilizador do serviço e na promoção de um ethos da recuperação.----------ABSTRACT: In 2006, a new Government policy for mental health “A Vision for Change” was endorsed and is currently in the seventh year of implementation. The policy describes a comprehensive framework for building and fostering positive mental health across the entire community and for providing accessible, community based, specialist services for people with mental illness. The implementation of the policy and turning “Vision for Change” into reality has been problematic with considerable criticism from stakeholders concerning slow and disjointed implementation. This study provides information on three key community mental health service settings, namely Day Hospitals, Day Centres and 24 Hour Community Residences at a national level. The research looks at aims and functions, patient profiles, therapeutic activities, effectiveness of key communication networks and gains an insight from staff on what has changed on the ground over the past seven years. Issues identified from the three service settings pertain to all. Participants indicated that the recovery ethos appears to have moved to a more central role in patient care in the community but acknowledged that the challenge of integrating recovery principles in clinical practice remains present. The importance of individual care planning appears to be recognised in community services and respondents indicated that efforts are being made to ensure service user involvement. There were differences between „staff views‟ and „advocate views‟ on a number of aspects of service provision. This is the first Irish study of its kind to examine service provision across the three main community mental health settings in one study. These services represent a huge investment in resources both on a monetary and human level. This study has examined the challenges and key issues which are applicable and impacting on all three types of service provision. It has also provided information on the elements of positive change, which are slowly embedding themselves in service provision such as the importance of the centricity of the service user and the promotion of a recovery ethos.

Referenda outcomes and the influence of polls: A social network feedback process

This paper proposes a model to explain the differences between outcomes of referenda and the voting trends suggested by polls. Two main effects are at stake. First, the evolution of the voters' attitudes is conditional on the public information made available to them. Second, the predisposition toward abstention among individuals within each voting group may be different. Our model describes how these two aspects of decision making may interact, showing how publicly available information may amplify the distinct tendency toward abstention between both groups and thus affect the outcome of the referendum.

Cape Verde’s foreign policy: an economic perspective

The virtuous cycle between development success and foreign policy in Cape Verde reflects a positive interaction between globalization and governance. Development success under globalization entails positive market perceptions regarding the orientation and predictability of policies as well as the accompanying institutional arrangements, thereby making foreign policy salient beyond the comparator group, or “aspirational”. Even if there is no universally applicable development model, an aspirational foreign policy can be built on positive rankings with respect to comparator groups. In Macedo and Pereira (2010), macrolevel policy and institutional combinations underpinning trade diversification and income convergence in West and Southern Africa are used to establish development success for Cape Verde and Mozambique respectively. Here, the narrative of long-term development helps identify the following drivers: moving towards a market economy; opening up to regional and global trade; increasing economic and political freedom; pursuing macroeconomic stability and financial reputation; ensuring policy continuity (especially in trade and industrial sectors) and focusing on human development (especially poverty reduction and education). Looking at GDP per capita and indicators of financial reputation and good governance of sub-regional peers is not sufficient to conclude that Cape Verde’s convergence will be sustained. Nevertheless, the positive interaction between trade and financial globalization, on the one hand, and democracy and good governance, on the other, have positive implications for the effectiveness of foreign policy across the region as well as in the Portuguese-speaking community.

Adjusting to external imbalances within the EMU, the case of Portugal

From 1995 to 2010 Portugal has accumulated a negative international asset position of 110 percent of GDP. In a developed and aging economy the number is astonishing and any argument to consider it sustainable must rely on extremely favorable forecasts on growth. Portuguese policy options are reduced in number: no autonomous monetary policy, no currency to devaluate, and limited discretion in changing fiscal deficits and government debt. To start the necessary deleveraging a remaining possible policy is a budget-neutral change of the tax structure that increases private saving and net exports. An increase in the VAT and a decrease in the employer’s social security contribution tax can achieve the desired outcome in the short run if they are complemented with wage moderation. To obtain a substantial improvement in competitiveness and a large decrease in consumption, the changes in the tax rates have to be large. While a precise quantitative assessment is difficult, the initial increase in the effective VAT rate needed to allow the social security tax to decrease by 16 percentage points (pp) is approximately 10 pp. Such a large increase in the effective VAT rate could be obtained by raising most of the reduced VAT rates to the new general VAT rate of 23 percent. The empirical analysis shows that over time the suggested tax swap could generate surpluses and improve the trade balance. A temporary version of the suggested tax-swap has the attractiveness to achieve a sharper increase in the private saving rate maintaining the short run gains in competitiveness. Finally, the temporary version of the fiscal devaluation could be the basis for an automatic stabilizer to external imbalances within a monetary union.Portugal has been running large current account deficits every year since 1995. These deficits have accumulated to an astonishing 110 percent of GDP negative external asset position. The sustainability of such a large external position is questionable and must rely on fantastic productivity growth expectations. The recent global financial crisis appears to have anticipated the international investors reality check on those future expectations with the result of a large increase in the cost of external financing. Today the rebalancing of the current account through an increase in national savings and an improvement in competitiveness must be at the top of the Portuguese authorities “to do” list as the cost of a pull out from international investors is of the order of 10% of GDP. The external rebalancing is difficult as the degrees of freedom of the Portuguese authorities are limited in number: they have no autonomous monetary policy, no currency to devaluate, and little discretion in fiscal policy as deficit limits and debt targets are set by the Stability Growth Pact and the postcrisis consensus on medium-term fiscal consolidation. One possibility that remains is to change the fiscal policy mix for a given budget deficit. The purpose of this paper is to explore the effects of a “fiscal devaluation”1 obtained through a tax swap between employers’ social security contributions and taxes on consumption2. The paper begins by illustrating Portugal’s current account evolution during the euro period. The second section section lays out a model to offer a qualitative assessment of the dynamic outcomes of the the tax swap. I show that the suggested tax swap can in theory achieve the desired outcomes in terms of competitiveness and consumption if complemented with moderation (stickiness) in wages. I also study the effects of a temporary version of the tax swap and show that it achieves a sharper improvement in the current account that accelerate the rebalancing. The third section moves to the empirical analysis and estimates the likely effects of the tax swap for the Portuguese economy. The fourth section concludes.

Innovation and environmental policy: Clean vs. dirty technical change

We study a two sector endogenous growth model with environmental quality with two goods and two factors of production, one clean and one dirty. Technological change creates clean or dirty innovations. We compare the laissez-faire equilibrium and the social optimum and study first- and second-best policies. Optimal policy encourages research toward clean technologies. In a second-best world, we claim that a portfolio that includes a tax on the polluting good combined with optimal innovation subsidy policies is less costly than increasing the price of the polluting good alone. Moreover, a discriminating innovation subsidy policy is preferable to a non-discriminating one.

The Islamic Policy of Portuguese Colonial Mozambique, 1960-1973

Drawing its information from different documents in Portuguese and French archives, this article examines the evolution of Portuguese colonial policies towards Islam, focusing on the special case of Mozambique. Such policies evolved from an attitude of neglect and open repression, prevalent in the early years of the colonial war that broke out in 1965, when Muslims were perceived as the main supporters of the anti-colonial guerrilla in northern Mozambique, to an approach that tried to isolate ‘African Muslims’ from foreign influences in order to align them with the Portuguese. The article analyses the latter strategy, assessing its successes and failures, and the contributions made by several of those who were involved.